Mobility is falling once again. Another UK lockdown, ongoing tight restrictions across Europe and forthcoming new measures elsewhere leave risks that economic activity could face another sharp decline. But with vaccine rollout now underway, policy support continuing, and the main region of global growth (namely Asia) relatively unscathed in recent months, the expected global rebound remains fairly secure.

The new, more transmissible strain of COVID recently identified in the UK has not yet dented optimism over the global recovery. Neither did the virus-related weakness through Q4, which lowered the starting point for this year’s growth. Instead, a Democrat clean sweep and the prospect of further US stimulus are buoying risk sentiment. We agree with the positive market assessment and highlight three key reasons to remain upbeat on the global recovery.