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  1. Markets to Watch This Week: UK CPI to Show First Signs of Energy Price Cap Adjustment

    Bilal Hafeez

    $-Bloc hike expectations moderated over the past week as inflation expectations pulled back. New Zealand’s two-year OIS swap slid 2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev)...

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: US CPI and UK GDP in Focus

    Bilal Hafeez

    Hike expectations are rising across Scandinavia and the $-Bloc. Sweden’s two-year OIS swap jumped +2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev), closely followed by...

  3. Bloomberg TV Interview: Will the Market Selloff Continue?

    Bilal Hafeez

    Pleased to have featured on Bloomberg TV yesterday to discuss whether the recent selloffs we have been seeing are justified...

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: FOMC and BoE in Focus, with NFP to Follow

    Bilal Hafeez

    The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with DXY up 2% on the week. Meanwhile, CNH continued to weaken (-3.1 std-devs over the past week) – Bert suggests remaining short CNY until the PBOC stops the move.

  2. Does TWTR’s Board Know Something Elon Doesn’t?

    John Tierney

    Twitter’s decision to sell itself makes sense if the board knows the ephemeral upside is never going to happen.

  3. What Does KO’s Big Earnings Beat Say About Inflation?

    John Tierney

    KO’s ability to pass on its rising costs, seems to suggest that whatever concerns people may have about inflation, they are still happy to pay up to inflate their waistlines.

Markets to Watch This Week: Australian Markets in Focus Ahead of Wednesday Inflation

Bilal Hafeez

Markets turned more hawkish on $-Bloc Central Banks. Ahead of Australia’s inflation print on Wednesday, markets had begun to price the 3 May meeting...

A Freight Recession: The Good and the Bad

John Tierney

An industry analytics firm is forecasting a ‘freight recession’ – declining freight volumes for more than two quarters.

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Fed Speakers Will Continue to Support 50bps Hikes

    Bilal Hafeez

    Last week saw a renewed move higher in crude oil as American equities continued to breakdown through the start of 2022’s first earning season. Meanwhile, USD/JPY pushed through 128.0.

  2. S&P 500 Sector Recommendations

    John Tierney

    We expand our ETF recommendations to include the major sectors of the S&P 500. Full disclosure – investing in 2022 (at least so far) has been primarily about growth versus value, not sectors.

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: USTs Steepening to Continue

    Bilal Hafeez

    Last week saw weakness across both fixed income and equity markets as inflation fears persist, and central bank hawkishness is increasingly priced.

Strategists’ Predictions for End-2022

Aneet Chachra

Before the New Year, average strategist forecasts for 2022 called for an 8% gain in the S&P 500. But now?

Bilal Hafeez on CNBC: Elon Musk Becomes Twitter’s Largest Outside Shareholder

Bilal Hafeez

Enjoyed featuring on CNBC TV today to discuss Elon Musk's stake in Twitter, the reasoning for the stake, and the direction which Twitter may now head in...

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Short-end USD Rates Close to Pricing 50bp May Hike

    Bilal Hafeez

    Short-end yields were the biggest vol-adjusted movers of the week. 2Y UST yield led the rise to briefly break 2.5%, its highest rate since early 2019...

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: US5s30s Inverts While Yen Continues to Struggle

    Bilal Hafeez

    US bond yields have continued to sell off as the Fed looks to become ever more hawkish, Dominique expects a 50bps hike at the May FOMC meeting...

  3. The (Patient) Case for Overweighting Financials

    John Tierney

    Financials P/E ratios are now about 60% of the S&P 500 versus a historical norm nearer 75-80%. For financials to outperform SPX, this valuation gap must narrow...

Podcast Transcript: Andy Constan on Lessons From Bridgewater, Equity Valuations and Top Trades

Bilal Hafeez

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Andy Constan, published 18 March 2022. He has spent the past 33 years investing...

Will Rebalancing Flows Support Month-End Equities?

Henry Occleston

Large real-money investors often target particular asset ratios (e.g., bonds/equities). When one asset greatly outperforms another it may...

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