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  1. Asset Allocation: Quality Stocks for a Quality Portfolio

    Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar

    We stay overweight cash and TIPS while maintaining our underweight allocation to equities, long-duration bonds, property, and private equity.

  2. ECB Monitor: Dovish Mood Could Persist in Near Term

    Henry Occleston

    ECB hawkishness has been pared lately, despite the main voices continuing to reject that underlying inflation is falling.

  3. Week Ahead: Why the Fed Will Not Crash Risk Markets

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrewand Dominique reflect on the US debt ceiling deal. What's next for the markets and what are the Fed's plans for the market now? Should investors be looking at market liquidity more closely and what's on for the week ahead!

  1. Week Ahead: Still No Deal, but Should We Even Care?

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew meets with Dominique to discuss the market landscape and the latest developments regarding the US debt ceiling.

  2. Prime Trade Ideas: CHF, JPY Key to Profiting From an Ugly Debt Ceiling Negotiation

    Viresh Kanabar

    We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.

  3. Week Ahead: Debt Ceiling Issues Far From Over

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew returns and he and Dominique discuss the latest in the US debt ceiling saga. Is the market underprepared for the potential outcomes?

BoE Review: Hawkish Forecasts, Dovish Tone; A Hard Sell

Henry Occleston

The BoE hiked 25bp as expected and hawkishly revised their forecasts – in line with broad expectations.

Is UK Employment Already Falling?

Henry Occleston

UK March (ONS) and April (HMRC) data increased our belief that the labour market will loosen faster than the BoE assumes. Participation rate is near post-GFC averages, and full-time employment growth continues to decline.

  1. New Look Asset Allocation Update

    Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar

    This month, we expand the coverage of our asset class views and provide further granularity in each component.

  2. Week Ahead: The Debt Ceiling Crisis is Nigh

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, we have our guest host Henry Occleston returning for another conversation with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. This week they discuss data from the previous week and how inflation continues to be a problem with more data pointing to more hikes. However, can the Fed even consider hiking as the debt celining crisis looms closer with date 'x' now being June 1st!

  3. Prime Trade Ideas: Positioning for a US Debt Ceiling Debacle

    Ben Ford

    We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.

BoE Preview: 25bp Hike, But Dovish Details Could Mean GBP Weakness

Henry Occleston

We expect the BoE to hike by 25bp this week, although the statement and forecasts will be important to watch for dovish signs.

Week Ahead: Is the US Approaching Default?

Macro Hive

Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, we have our guest host Henry Occleston in conversation with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Dominique's take on the Fed meeting and April NFP print, what could the Fed be thinking with the latest wage growth data and how do you fix a problem like the US debt ceiling?

  1. Week Ahead: What’s Happening in the Jobs Market?

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss the events of the past trading week, what are the First Republic Bank implications, why are people turning to Money Market funds and what's going in in the US labour market. What Dominique expects from the Fed's rate decision in the coming week, her outlook on NFP vs market consensus as well as what's next for the US debt ceiling worries?

  2. Prime Trade Ideas: Defensive Positioning Into May Central Bank Meetings

    Ben Ford

    We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.

  3. ECB Monitor: Stubborn Core Inflation Suggests 50bp in May and 4% Terminal

    Henry Occleston

    Recently, ECB speakers have toned down their hawkishness, rallying instead behind buzz-phrases such as ‘most hiking being behind us’ and ‘data dependence’.

Week Ahead: The Data Continues to Point to Higher for Longer

Macro Hive

Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss the market landscape , why Dominique is worried about oil prices and if investors should be worried about the US debt ceiling? Also Dominique breaks down her view or why we're still in a higher for longer environment!

UK Data Suggests June and May BoE Hikes

Henry Occleston

Data showed that the labour market is continuing to loosen – with the inactivity rate and vacancies falling, while employment growth is driven by part-time and self-employment.

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