Henry Occleston, Caroline Grady
Summary The ECB is widely expected to cut its depo rate by another 25bps on Thursday. Below-target inflation and increasing signs of economic, and in particular labour market, weakness are why. But we expect a cautious tone given inflation is set to rise again in Q4, risks over January repricing remain, and Q2 employment growth […]
Macro Hive
Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez speaks on Bloomberg Europe about Germany's lagging economy, the banking sector, and the macro forces at play in the US economy.
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Friday’s headline employment data was strong, adding 47k jobs of which 112k were full-time. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.5% as the labour force participation rate fell further to 64.9%. Meanwhile the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey showed signs of a recovery, but demand remains weak. Finally, inflation expectations continued to decline, while hiring […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: Retail sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (used to build GDP estimates) is 0.3% MoM or 0.1% real (based on CPI). The consensus forecast seems both attainable and in line with recent data suggesting a resilient consumer. In the Eurozone and UK, the […]
Richard Jones
Summary US Treasury (UST) yields have risen sharply across the curve, driven by a stronger-than-expected US jobs report last Friday. Market pricing of further Fed easing for 2024 aligns with the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and our expectations. We expect rates to remain rangebound ahead of the elections next month, with the next […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The ECB seems almost certain to cut 25bp at its 17 October meeting. Post-NFP, the market has pared expectations of cuts over the next year, but it is still pricing four 25bp cuts in as many meetings. While September inflation took it below ECB forecasts, we are cautious that we may be seeing a […]
Macro Hive
Summary A Republican sweep (red WH and Congress) could result in stagflation and force the Fed to hike. Meanwhile, a Democratic sweep (blue WH and Congress) would likely align with the Fed’s current projections. Market Implications A Trump victory would likely lead to bear steepening in the yield curve, and a stronger USD especially vs […]
Viresh Kanabar, Ben Ford
Summary Core and services inflation rose to 3.6% YoY and 5.6% in August. And while core now sits above BoE forecasts (3.4%), services inflation remains below. Meanwhile, wage growth is decelerating too slowly to force the BoE into a September rate cut. Assuming the BoE maintains a monthly pace of £100bn for balance sheet reduction, […]
Viresh Kanabar, Ben Ford
Summary Core and services inflation rose to 3.6% YoY and 5.6% in August. And while core now sits above BoE forecasts (3.4%), services inflation remains below. Meanwhile, wage growth is decelerating too slowly to force the BoE into a September rate cut. Assuming the BoE maintains a monthly pace of £100bn for balance sheet reduction, […]
Richard Jones
Summary US fixed income has staged an impressive bull run since late April/early May, with yields plummeting across the curve. Yet several signals now warn of a short-term correction higher for US yields. We anticipate the correction will depend on the FOMC’s policy update next week and therefore avoid initiating countertrend tactical positioning as the […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: NFP – Friday. If the print shows no marked improvement on July and is below consensus for UE falling to 4.2%, the Fed will likely frontload rate cuts, starting with 50bp in September. JOLTS – Wednesday. The U/V ratio is more important than headline. […]
Henry Occleston
Summary A September cut may require a continued undershoot in headline and services inflation (our expectation) and signs of further labour market easing (less certain). The September meeting will also see a decision on QT for the year ahead. Given the maturity profile, the risk is skewed towards slower active sales. This would present more […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with equity models down 0.4% WoW, FX models flat WoW, and rates models down 0.2% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The market is fully pricing a 25bp cut in September. However, recent data suggests the ECB will need to revise their forecasts more hawkishly at the September meeting. This, and the amount of incoming data, elevates the risk of the ECB pausing in September. We therefore see good value in fading the 25bp cut […]
Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez
Summary Momentum models slipped -0.2% over the past week. Rates (+0.4) were the only positive performer with FX (-0.3%) and equities (-0.9%) underperforming. Momentum models underperformed across all three asset classes over a three-month timeframe (equities: -5.3%, FX: -1.7%, and rates: -1.0%). Market Implications Momentum models are heavily bullish Gilts – we are long 10Y […]
Ben Ford
Summary The RBNZ cut the OCR 25bps to 5.25%, against our expectation for no change. Material weakness in high-frequency data and updated research from the central bank drove the dovish update. There were large changes to GDP and tradables inflation forecasts. Ahead, the RBNZ are forecasting 25bp cuts at the next three meetings before slowing. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus is 0.2% MoM for core. The Fed will look for continued OER disinflation and, based on CPI and Tuesday’s PPI, an estimate of core PCE near 20bp. Retail sales – Wednesday. Following June’s 0.4%, consensus expects a slowdown to 0.1% ex […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with equity models down 0.5% WoW, FX models down 0.4% WoW and rates models up 0.6% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE cut 25bp, in line with economist consensus. We had been low conviction on the decision but have long been dovish on the BoE outlook and positioned accordingly. The vote was tight, 5:4 in favour of cutting. As expected, forecasts and comments were hawkish (decision ‘finely balanced’, ‘upside risks to outlook’). However, the […]
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