Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, including the Fed rate decision and the week's data prints and should we be worried about a US government shut down?
Henry Occleston
We expect the BoE will hike by 25bp to 5.5% and signal that they are ready to pause thereafter. Recent data and the tone of policymakers have set the groundworks for such an outturn.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, from market moves, data prints, US politics and more planned strikes and what that means for wage inflation. Finally, what should investors expect from the Fed.
Henry Occleston
The ECB’s decision to hike is based on three factors: Whether core inflation (and importantly wage-intensive services inflation) is trending towards target.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, look to the data points for the coming week and we have an exciting announcement about Macro Hive!
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique are back after the summer break. In this episode Dominique gives her take on the latest NFP print, which Fed speakers to look out for in the coming week and is has her view on US rates changed at all over the summer?
Viresh Kanabar
This month we took a deeper look into private markets, where we have been bearish for most of this year.
Viresh Kanabar
This month we took a deeper look into private markets, where we have been bearish for most of this year.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew and Dominique discuss why the New York Times maybe misled markets last week? Does Dominique believe in the forecasted Fed rate cuts and why she continues to monitor the oil markets.
Henry Occleston
The BoE hike by 25bp to 5.25% as we expected. And while we had seen a big risk of a 50bp hike (there were two votes for such), most of the MPC are clearly more reactive to contemporaneous data outturns. As expected, the content of the MPR forecasts was more dovish. There is continued room for more dovish surprises ahead.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Private market activity has fallen in H1, with total vehicles closed down over 50%. Investment trusts exposed to the private market are currently trading at wide discounts to their NAV as low liquidity and fears over asset valuations hurt investor sentiment.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew and Dominique discuss the NFP print in August and market reactions. Why Dominique still sticks to her call on the Fed. What’s going on in energy markets and what investors should watch this week: Dominique’s view on CPI, the latest Fed speakers, and what Dominique thinks will be on the agenda at Jackson Hole.
Viresh Kanabar
Bullish EUR/USD to 1.13 (2 August, Richard Jones). Bullish CAD as oil rebounds (27 July, Macro Hive, CME). Oil is well supported at $80 on Brent (2 August, Viresh Kanabar).
Henry Occleston
We expect the BoE to hike the bank rate by 25bp to 5.25%. The case for a 50bp hike remains, we assign a 40% probability to the outcome, while the case for pausing now is strengthening, but remains a tail-risk.
Henry Occleston
The ECB hiked 25bp at their July meeting and confirmed that their September decision will be based on policy transmission, data, and what the September ECB forecasts say.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew and Dominique discuss the Fed rate hike last week as well as BoJ events. Does Dominique think the Fed are willing to accept inflation at 4%, and what can end the Goldilocks markets!
Henry Occleston
The ECB is expected to hike 25bp this week and point towards data dependence at its meeting in September (focus on core inflation, policy transmission, and forecasts).
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Henry and Dominique discuss the Fed's preference for a 'Goldilocks' macro backdrop, what is the main driver of the current inflation decline, why the market is pricing so many 2024 Fed rate cuts, and much more!
Henry Occleston
The UK has suffered far higher inflation than many continental peers. Yet the Bank of England does not need to keep hiking - it has probably done enough already.
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