Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… PCE price index, pers. income, spending – Friday. Consensus seems reasonable. The Fed watches the services component of PCE. We will examine median price PCE for indication of trend and see personal savings remaining around 4%. Q2 GDP – Thursday. Consensus is 1.9% vs the Atlanta Fed’s […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the important data points: Retail sales – Tuesday. Expect 0.2% for the control group, in line with consensus. Consumption growth is slowing due to catchup in personal income tax payments. Manufacturing production – Tuesday. Consensus of –0.1% mom appears reasonable, though the data says little about the […]
Henry Occleston
Summary Recent BoE comments have leaned more hawkish. Pill’s speech was most important, though confused in tone. June labour market and inflation data will be key to understanding the underlying trend, despite policymakers insisting single prints will not change the outlook. We think wage and inflation data details suggest the BoE should cut imminently. A […]
Richard Jones
Summary Since late March/early April, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded in a ~4.6%/~5% range (currently 4.62%). We have preferred a buy-on-price-dips strategy since early April. A culmination of factors – US data surprises likely to become more positive, sticky inflation, and stretched technicals – means further short-end yield declines will be difficult. Market […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models up 0.5% WoW, rates flat WoW and FX down 0.2% WoW. All momentum models are down over a three-month timeframe, with […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the most important data is: NFP – Friday. We agree with the consensus on payrolls and unemployment. Wage growth will be more important than usual due to last month’s pickup, which some argue is the start of a trend. ISM PMIs – manu. Monday, services Wednesday. We agree with […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models down 0.1% WoW, rates up 0.2% WoW and FX unchanged WoW. FX momentum models are the best performing over a three-month […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main events are: Core PCE – Friday. Expect no surprise since PPI and CPI allow for close approximation. The more reliable indicator of trend will be the Cleveland Fed’s median price PCE, published a few hours after the BEA release. Personal income and spending – Friday. Consensus estimates […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, Wednesday is a federal holiday. Otherwise, the main data releases are: Retail sales – Tuesday. Consensus for the control group is 0.3% MoM vs -0.3% in April. This sounds reasonable: the series is noisy, and retail sales cover only goods and restaurant consumption. The more important economic data is […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data releases are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. We see core PCE at +0.25% MoM vs +0.30% consensus. So a downside surprise is possible from rounding down. We expect the household savings rate stays around historical lows of 3.5%. A very low rate is a […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the headline is CPI and retail sales: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expects 0.3% MoM for core. I see upside risks due to April’s rising energy prices and strong demand backdrop. Sam’s model will give an early read. Yet even with a positive surprise, this CPI print alone is unlikely […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there are two main events: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (Monday): We expect it will still show increased credit demand, fewer banks tightening standards, and more banks willing to extend loans – another sign Fed tightening is not reaching the economy. U. Mich. Consumer confidence […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the BoE will leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. However, a more dovish inflation forecast should open the door to explicitly discussing cuts. The BoE will ultimately want their first cut to be a hawkish one, and for the market not to price too much subsequent easing – a well telegraphed […]
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. A positive rates (+0.3% WoW) outing battled poor equity (-0.4% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW) performances. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over […]
Ben Ford
Summary Momentum models declined -0.3% over the past week. Poor rates (-1.0% WoW) and FX (-0.2% WoW) outweighed a positive equity (+0.7% WoW) outing. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+6.9%). Market Implications Momentum models are bearish EUR/USD and bullish GBP/USD – we have closed our long USD trades. They […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Powell’s testimony to Congress is likely to stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Both NFP and wages are likely to surprise on the upside. Market Implications A June cut is still my base case. Fed Fed speakers this week continued to stress that […]
Ben Ford
Summary Momentum models gained +0.3% over the past week. Equities fared best (+1.6% WoW), while rates (+0.0%) and FX (-0.1% WoW) underperformed. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+7.0%). Market Implications Momentum models are bullish EUR/USD – we are short – and bullish EUR/CHF – we are long. They are […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary PCE to confirm January inflation bump. Q4 GDP second estimate to show growth remains too hot for the Fed. Market Implications I still see a June cut as more likely than a May cut, in line with market pricing. Fed Fed speakers this week continued to signal cuts are not […]
Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…
Already have an account?…
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.