Category: Rates

Economists are Bad at Predicting Recessions (FiveThirtyEight, 4 min read)

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Replacing LIBOR (Money and Banking, 5 min read)

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Inverted Yield Curves and Expected Stock Returns (Fama and French Working Paper, 15 min read)

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The Impact of Interest Rates & Inflation on Stock Market Valuations (A wealth of common sense, 2 mins)

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Is the Fed Doing Anything Right? (New Monetarist Economics by Stephen Williamson, 5 min read)

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Worried Index-Based Strategies are Distorting the Bond Market? The Data Says You Shouldn’t Be (Advisor Perspectives, 4 min read)

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Mysteries of Monetary Policy (Project Syndicated, 3 min read)

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Guide to the Markets Report, Q3 2019 (J.P. Morgan, Report)

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US 10y bond yield forecast

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Growth Is Good, But Not Inflation

With today’s raft of service PMIs, there are more signs of stabilisation in the global growth cycle (both China and European indices bounced). There remain lingering concerns around the manufacturing cycle, especially in Europe, but the larger issue could be falling inflation. Indeed, US inflation expectations (as priced by rates markets) plunged towards the end […]

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