If you would like to connect and contact the author,Caroline Grady is Head of Emerging Markets Research at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary The ECB announced updated forward guidance on interest rates to incorporate its new symmetric 2% inflation target. Lagarde describes the changes…
In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Hungary and the Czech Republic became the first EU countries to hike rates, with both central banks pushing through policy rate…
In: Hive Exclusives | China
Summary Mobility restrictions in India are beginning to ease with daily COVID cases down sharply from earlier highs. Vaccine rollout remains modest…
In: Hive Exclusives | China Economic Growth
Summary China’s efforts to reduce financial vulnerabilities continue with measures against speculation in real estate, commodities, crypto and overall credit growth. With…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Economic Growth
Summary Taiwan’s earlier success in containing COVID has crumbled with new cases soaring. New mobility restrictions combined with very slow vaccine rollout…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID
Summary Mobility declines as India imposes increasing restrictions to curb the escalating COVID crisis. India’s reported deaths look oddly low given countries…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Thursday’s ECB meeting is unlikely to see any policy shift. The Governing Council will likely reaffirm increased PEPP purchases through Q2…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality
Summary Mobility and service sector activity are bouncing back in Israel as the high vaccination rate allows rapid reopening. Output is expected…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China FX
Summary A global growth rotation from China to the US this year leaves downside risks for the rest of Asia given trade…
In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Rate hikes from Brazil, Turkey and Russia this week raise the question, which EM country is next? India and the Philippines…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Shipping prices have surged since November, with China’s rapid recovery, earlier capacity reductions and much-reduced air freight all contributing. Alongside higher…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China EM Equities FX Politics & Geopolitics
Summary Accelerating capital inflows through Q4 2020 were a key driver of EMFX. We expect inflows will remain strong in Asia driven…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Europe’s economy is on the cusp of a double-dip recession. A worsening COVID situation and a tightening of restrictions means the bloc…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth Politics & Geopolitics US
Summary Chinese exports have outperformed this year, resulting in a rising global market share. And imports contracted, leaving China’s trade surplus at…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China COVID Economic Growth Equities Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation UK
Summary Fresh COVID restrictions leave downside risks to the global recovery as mobility slows again. Asia’s dominance in global growth, an accommodative…
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey…
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed decision will be the highlight of the week, with forward guidance and a possible duration shift in focus.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Rupee looks set to end the year as Asia’s worst-performing currency This reflects RBI FX intervention with FX reserves up $xbn…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
The ECB has made it explicit that additional stimulus will be announced at its Thursday Governing Council meeting. Market expectations are for…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting with take center stage with President Lagarde widely expected to announce additional asset purchases under PEPP. Brazil…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth EM FX
Summary EM sentiment remains bullish following strong November performance and vaccine rollout optimism. That EMs have more goods-driven economies (versus service-oriented DM…
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy Australia, Poland and India will all hold policy meetings over the coming week. None are expected to ease policy, although…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit EM Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Turkey’s 475bps rate hike and new economic management are much-needed policy shifts. They are not, however, enough to guarantee lira stability.…
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy Last week’s flurry of monetary policy meetings leaves a fairly quiet week ahead. Several Fed, ECB and BoE speakers are…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary INR performance has lagged other Asian currencies over recent months after the strong rally in August. A more pro-growth RBI and…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
With the election now less than 24 hours away we provide a Macro Hive guide to everything you need to know. We…
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy A very busy week for monetary policy with Fed and BoE policy meetings (both Thursday) plus the RBA (Tuesday). While…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Rising COVID cases and new restrictions threaten the Euro area recovery ECB likely to acknowledge the rising downside risks but stop…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
The final Trump-Biden debate is now over. It was a more civilized affair than the first, helped by a format change that…
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting is expected to bring a strong commitment to do more given the renewed wave of COVID cases…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Global
The global fiscal response to COVID is $11.7trn, or almost 12% of GDP, according to the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor. Around half…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID EM Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary KRW is Asia’s best-performing currency since the start of September The recovery is slowing picking up and exports are rebounding Still-low…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Singapore’s $44bn in FX intervention in H1 is the highest on UST watchlist RBI FX reserves are up $72bn YTD given…
In: Hive Exclusives | EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Parts of emerging markets are starting to see rising inflation. This is the result of earlier currency depreciation, supply-side disruptions and rising…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe FX Politics & Geopolitics UK
This mood music over the past few days has been in stark contrast between Frankfurt and London. ECB president Christine Lagarde today…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Monetary Policy & Inflation
Chinese trade data earlier this week showed imports growth falling deeper into negative territory (-2.1% YoY), while credit data due in the…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Euro strength and the current bout of deflation are set to dominate this week’s ECB meeting. We expect no policy announcements, but,…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID Economic Growth EM FX
New highs in India’s basic balance should support further INR strength Currency strength remains at odds with a very weak macro outlook…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Politics & Geopolitics US
Donald Trump’s chances of winning re-election on 3 November are rising. The likelihood of a Democrat sweep – and with it any…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Politics & Geopolitics US
Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
The forthcoming US Treasury FX manipulation report will probably add several Asian countries to its watchlist. It may even go so far…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID Economic Growth EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
- CNY appreciation to continue despite mixed signals on recovery - C/A dynamics support INR, but economic outlook remains weak - Gloomy…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe
After four days of negotiations, EU27 leaders have agreed a landmark deal on a European recovery fund and the next seven-year budget.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
The next few days could mark an important turning point for Europe. Agreement on a €750bn EU recovery fund, even if only…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds Economic Growth EM FX Labour Market & Inequality
- CNY to benefit from rising yield differentials and a strong recovery - INR continues to defy dismal economic reality due to…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics
Markets have been on a bumpy ride over the past two weeks. Ongoing policy stimulus and relaxation of COVID lockdowns continue to buoy risk…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID EM
Deteriorating C/A positions are beginning to raise concerns over currency performance in some emerging markets. Lockdowns have triggered an…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Politics & Geopolitics US
Last month’s decision by China to impose a new security law on Hong Kong has triggered a new stage in US-China tensions. The US is set to revoke…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Today’s increase in the size of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) adds another layer to Europe’s response…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Thursday’s ECB governing council meeting comes amid a shifting European landscape. Since the last policy meeting in April, the ECB now faces the…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX
The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID EM Monetary Policy & Inflation
We were delighted to have Alfonso Prat-Gay, Argentina’s former central bank governor (2002-2004) and finance minister (2015-2016) as our podcast…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality UK
Fiscal expansion in response to COVID and the forthcoming spike in debt have dominated investor concerns in recent months. But these significantly…
In: Deep Dives | Bonds Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Central bank bond buying has accelerated at an unprecedented pace during the COVID crisis. The impact of large asset purchases on home markets…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality
South Korea is an often-cited example of a country that has successfully controlled COVID. And the economic fallout looks to be significantly less…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
The ECB’s governing council has significantly stepped up its crisis response since the last scheduled policy meeting six weeks ago. It’s delivered…
In: Deep Dives | COVID ESG & Climate Change Labour Market & Inequality
Governments worldwide are facing tough decisions on how to ease lockdown restrictions. Given the trade-off between the spread of the virus and…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality
The huge economic cost of the COVID lockdowns is becoming evident. European PMIs have collapsed to a level far below that recorded in…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality
While much of the world is in freefall, activity in China is rebounding. This disconnect looks set to continue for now, with new cases of COVID-19 in China…
In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets FX
The pace of the selloff in EM is unprecedented, even compared to the GFC and 2013 taper tantrum. MXN stands out with a 30% depreciation over…
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Parallels between the 19th century Cholera outbreak and the coronavirus include the disproportionate hit on the poor where people live closer…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Virus is a trigger for Japanification of the US. Unlimited and immediate Fed QE (including corporate bonds) plus the biggest fiscal package in US history…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Recent disruptions and illiquidity in the UST market reflects an initial rapid shift in fundamentals as long-term growth expectations fell. Discrepancies…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Pay out on the World Bank’s pandemic bonds may still be a few weeks away, or may never come at all, as various criteria on the number of poor…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation
Christine Lagarde’s ECB press conference was a blunder from the point of view of market stabilisation. But now they are all in on bond buying with earlier…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities
Goldman’s head of equity trading for Americas discusses similarities and differences between the current crisis and that of 2008. In 2008 we knew what…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market
Claudia Sahm projects the current shock will be twice as severe as the great recession given activity has shut down and a huge share of the workforce…
In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Global Labour Market & Inequality
The fiscal response to COVID-19 is increasing by the day. Several countries have now announced multiple packages after it became apparent that the initial…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Economics
Goldman’s global head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie gives his take on this week’s turmoil in the oil market. The coronavirus and oil price war…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues
Editors from VoxEU talk about the new eBook on the economics of the coronavirus written by leading academics and policymakers. And the prognosis…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
Franklin Templeton’s Multi-Asset Solutions team discuss how to play the heightened market volatility from the coronavirus and the oil shock…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
Joe Biden has consolidated his lead in the race to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Tuesday’s wins in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Idaho…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
On Thursday Christine Lagarde will face her toughest test yet as ECB President. The emergency rate cuts from both the Fed and Bank of England…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US
Comeback kid: Joe Biden has been the favourite four times already in this race. After Super Tuesday he is now the overwhelming favourite. Biden has…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics
Charles Kenny from Centre for Global Development contextualises the structural shift in global wealth by highlighting that the economy of California is…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues
Bruegel experts present opposing views on what the coronavirus means for the future of globalisation, in particular international supply chains and…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth EM Labour Market & Inequality
COVID-19 supply chain disruptions will abruptly end the nascent recovery in global trade. The demand shock from quarantines and other…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues
IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva and Lord Nicholas Stern, of the London School of Economics, discuss the challenges brought by…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation
Economic historian Paul Schmelzing discusses his new paper “Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline…
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Jim Bianco, from Bianco Research, Mike Shedlock from Money Maven, Dr Ben Hunt – author of Epsilon Theory and Dr Chris Martenson from…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Economic Growth EM Labour Market & Inequality
COVID-19 is significantly impacting Asian economies. But India’s relatively small manufacturing base and low integration into global supply chains…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
DB’s credit research analyst Craig Nicol shares insights on the $250bn green bond market. In the absence of an official definition Nicol describes…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy
FT Lex writer Alan Livsey discusses his estimate of $900bn in “stranded assets” from the shift towards cleaner energy – defined as investment that…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics US
Binyamin Appelbaum, New York Times editorial writer and author of the Economists’ Hour, discusses economists’ influence on US public policy since…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth Europe Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation
The European economy is grinding to a halt. Fourth quarter GDP growth slowed to the lowest for almost seven years, and supply-side disruption from…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
Philipp Hildebrand, BlackRock’s Vice Chairman, and Rachel Lord, Head of Europe, Middle East and Africa discuss the company’s pivot towards…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Investment Strategy
UBS set out their positive investment case for China even with the coronavirus outbreak. They assume the containment efforts have worked, and…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy US
Goldman Sachs are bullish view on US equities. This is based the very high probability of positive returns during an expansion, and that data…
In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality US
US Treasury secretary discusses his views on tax policy and the US economy. The US government is under resourced. The share of tax revenues in GDP…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology US
Harvard Business School’s Bill Kerr discusses tech (and talent) clusters and the innovation and investment this can bring to an area…
In: Podcast Playlists | EM Equities Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy
Principal Global Investors global strategist Seema Shah expects the main investment themes for 2020 to remain relevant despite the downside risks…
In: Podcast Playlists | Credit
Only two companies in the US currently have a AAA rating (Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson). Previously a much larger number of companies…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
Experts from Goldman Sachs and the University of Chicago discuss how investors are approaching climate change. We are still very far away to meeting…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Luke Gromen, founder of macro thematic firm Forest for the Trees, discusses why the Fed is committed to financing US deficits, the outlook for…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market
Good news is that global recession risks have now eased. But several big risks remain. US versus China in trade and technology. Two countries…
In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues
Director of Brooking’s Africa Growth Initiative discusses a new report, “Foresight Africa: Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030”, touching on…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics UK
Recent good news on the economy with a post-election bounce in sentiment. PMIs improved while consumer spending (housing, car sales)…
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Major transformation is going on without major policy initiatives in place yet. Energy transition kicked off around 2010, pushed first by policy support…
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation UK
Many had expected Mark Carney to cut rates as his parting gift as Bank of England Governor, but in the end the MPC kept rates unchanged at…
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
The BBC reports from Italy on whether hydrogen can be the fuel of the future. They use Venice as their example. Venice’s poor air quality…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton’s Fixed Income CIO, discusses concerns and ideas for the US in the year ahead…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
Top questions for the airline industry this year: 1) will the airlines be able to offset cost inflation from (highly unionised) labour and airport…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics
Cato analysts review the Phase 1 US-China deal and the USMCA that was passed in the Senate last week. Phase 1 is a mixed bag. It prevents further…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation
DB’s thematic research team presents a fairly positive view of the global economy…
In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
The ECB’s first strategic review in more than 16 years is now officially underway. The findings will shape the future of monetary policy, most likely with…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Economics
A panel of Chinese and American scholars discuss the China’s economy in a long-term perspective. China aims be labelled a ‘rich’ country by 2049…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Drew Carter hosts four PMs (Michael Corty¸ George Metrou, Matthew Coffina and John Owens) to discuss views on evaluating and selecting stocks…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
CIO of Alhambra Investments, Jeff Snider, talks on the real causes of slack in the US economy and its underperformance against potential. He cites…
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Trend expert Marian Salzman of Philip Morris discusses her report “Chaos is the New Normal” and talks about 20 trends for 2020:…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities US
Wall Street’s bonus culture is slowly disappearing with big market wins often now made by algorithms not humans. Equities and FX markets are hit…
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