Caroline Grady is Head of Emerging Markets Research at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.
Caroline Grady is Head of Emerging Markets Research at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.
By Caroline Grady April 20, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Thursday’s ECB meeting is unlikely to see any policy shift. The Governing Council will likely reaffirm increased PEPP purchases through Q2…
By Caroline Grady April 16, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Growth & Labour Market
Summary Mobility and service sector activity are bouncing back in Israel as the high vaccination rate allows rapid reopening. Output is expected…
By Caroline Grady April 01, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China FX
Summary A global growth rotation from China to the US this year leaves downside risks for the rest of Asia given trade…
By Caroline Grady March 19, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Rate hikes from Brazil, Turkey and Russia this week raise the question, which EM country is next? India and the Philippines…
By Caroline Grady February 05, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics
Summary Shipping prices have surged since November, with China’s rapid recovery, earlier capacity reductions and much-reduced air freight all contributing. Alongside higher…
By Caroline Grady January 21, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets
Summary Accelerating capital inflows through Q4 2020 were a key driver of EMFX. We expect inflows will remain strong in Asia driven…
By Caroline Grady January 19, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
Europe’s economy is on the cusp of a double-dip recession. A worsening COVID situation and a tightening of restrictions means the bloc…
By Caroline Grady January 15, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US
Summary Chinese exports have outperformed this year, resulting in a rising global market share. And imports contracted, leaving China’s trade surplus at…
By Caroline Grady January 08, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID-19 Economics EM Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation UK
Summary Fresh COVID restrictions leave downside risks to the global recovery as mobility slows again. Asia’s dominance in global growth, an accommodative…
By Caroline Grady December 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey…
By Caroline Grady December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed decision will be the highlight of the week, with forward guidance and a possible duration shift in focus.…
By Caroline Grady December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Rupee looks set to end the year as Asia’s worst-performing currency This reflects RBI FX intervention with FX reserves up $xbn…
By Caroline Grady December 08, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation
The ECB has made it explicit that additional stimulus will be announced at its Thursday Governing Council meeting. Market expectations are for…
By Caroline Grady December 04, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting with take center stage with President Lagarde widely expected to announce additional asset purchases under PEPP. Brazil…
By Caroline Grady December 01, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | EM Markets and Investing
Summary EM sentiment remains bullish following strong November performance and vaccine rollout optimism. That EMs have more goods-driven economies (versus service-oriented DM…
By Caroline Grady November 27, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy Australia, Poland and India will all hold policy meetings over the coming week. None are expected to ease policy, although…
By Caroline Grady November 27, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Turkey’s 475bps rate hike and new economic management are much-needed policy shifts. They are not, however, enough to guarantee lira stability.…
By Caroline Grady November 06, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy Last week’s flurry of monetary policy meetings leaves a fairly quiet week ahead. Several Fed, ECB and BoE speakers are…
By Caroline Grady November 05, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary INR performance has lagged other Asian currencies over recent months after the strong rally in August. A more pro-growth RBI and…
By Caroline Grady November 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
With the election now less than 24 hours away we provide a Macro Hive guide to everything you need to know. We…
By Caroline Grady October 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy A very busy week for monetary policy with Fed and BoE policy meetings (both Thursday) plus the RBA (Tuesday). While…
By Caroline Grady October 27, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Rising COVID cases and new restrictions threaten the Euro area recovery ECB likely to acknowledge the rising downside risks but stop…
By Caroline Grady October 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
The final Trump-Biden debate is now over. It was a more civilized affair than the first, helped by a format change that…
By Caroline Grady October 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting is expected to bring a strong commitment to do more given the renewed wave of COVID cases…
By Caroline Grady October 22, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Fiscal Policy & Inequality
The global fiscal response to COVID is $11.7trn, or almost 12% of GDP, according to the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor. Around half…
By Caroline Grady October 16, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | EM Markets and Investing Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary KRW is Asia’s best-performing currency since the start of September The recovery is slowing picking up and exports are rebounding Still-low…
By Caroline Grady October 01, 2020
Summary Singapore’s $44bn in FX intervention in H1 is the highest on UST watchlist RBI FX reserves are up $72bn YTD given…
By Caroline Grady September 29, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Parts of emerging markets are starting to see rising inflation. This is the result of earlier currency depreciation, supply-side disruptions and rising…
By Caroline Grady September 10, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation
This mood music over the past few days has been in stark contrast between Frankfurt and London. ECB president Christine Lagarde today…
By Caroline Grady September 10, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics
Chinese trade data earlier this week showed imports growth falling deeper into negative territory (-2.1% YoY), while credit data due in the…
By Caroline Grady September 08, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
Euro strength and the current bout of deflation are set to dominate this week’s ECB meeting. We expect no policy announcements, but,…
By Caroline Grady September 03, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX
New highs in India’s basic balance should support further INR strength Currency strength remains at odds with a very weak macro outlook…
By Caroline Grady September 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | US
Donald Trump’s chances of winning re-election on 3 November are rising. The likelihood of a Democrat sweep – and with it any…
By Caroline Grady August 26, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | US
Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…
By Caroline Grady July 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets FX
The forthcoming US Treasury FX manipulation report will probably add several Asian countries to its watchlist. It may even go so far…
By Caroline Grady July 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets FX
- CNY appreciation to continue despite mixed signals on recovery - C/A dynamics support INR, but economic outlook remains weak - Gloomy…
By Caroline Grady July 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics
After four days of negotiations, EU27 leaders have agreed a landmark deal on a European recovery fund and the next seven-year budget.…
By Caroline Grady July 15, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
The next few days could mark an important turning point for Europe. Agreement on a €750bn EU recovery fund, even if only…
By Caroline Grady July 09, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics FX Growth & Labour Market Rates
- CNY to benefit from rising yield differentials and a strong recovery - INR continues to defy dismal economic reality due to…
By Caroline Grady June 25, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
Markets have been on a bumpy ride over the past two weeks. Ongoing policy stimulus and relaxation of COVID lockdowns continue to buoy risk…
By Caroline Grady June 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets
Deteriorating C/A positions are beginning to raise concerns over currency performance in some emerging markets. Lockdowns have triggered an…
By Caroline Grady Felipe Espitia June 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US
Last month’s decision by China to impose a new security law on Hong Kong has triggered a new stage in US-China tensions. The US is set to revoke…
By Caroline Grady June 04, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation
Today’s increase in the size of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) adds another layer to Europe’s response…
By Caroline Grady June 03, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation
Thursday’s ECB governing council meeting comes amid a shifting European landscape. Since the last policy meeting in April, the ECB now faces the…
By Bilal Hafeez Caroline Grady June 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…
By Caroline Grady May 28, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation
We were delighted to have Alfonso Prat-Gay, Argentina’s former central bank governor (2002-2004) and finance minister (2015-2016) as our podcast…
By Caroline Grady May 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics UK
Fiscal expansion in response to COVID and the forthcoming spike in debt have dominated investor concerns in recent months. But these significantly…
By Caroline Grady May 20, 2020
In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
Central bank bond buying has accelerated at an unprecedented pace during the COVID crisis. The impact of large asset purchases on home markets…
By Caroline Grady May 07, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Fiscal Policy & Inequality
South Korea is an often-cited example of a country that has successfully controlled COVID. And the economic fallout looks to be significantly less…
By Caroline Grady April 29, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
The ECB’s governing council has significantly stepped up its crisis response since the last scheduled policy meeting six weeks ago. It’s delivered…
By Caroline Grady April 29, 2020
In: Deep Dives | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues
Governments worldwide are facing tough decisions on how to ease lockdown restrictions. Given the trade-off between the spread of the virus and…
By Caroline Grady April 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market
The huge economic cost of the COVID lockdowns is becoming evident. European PMIs have collapsed to a level far below that recorded in…
By Caroline Grady April 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Growth & Labour Market
While much of the world is in freefall, activity in China is rebounding. This disconnect looks set to continue for now, with new cases of COVID-19 in China…
By Caroline Grady April 01, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets FX
The pace of the selloff in EM is unprecedented, even compared to the GFC and 2013 taper tantrum. MXN stands out with a 30% depreciation over…
By Caroline Grady April 01, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Parallels between the 19th century Cholera outbreak and the coronavirus include the disproportionate hit on the poor where people live closer…
By Caroline Grady April 01, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Virus is a trigger for Japanification of the US. Unlimited and immediate Fed QE (including corporate bonds) plus the biggest fiscal package in US history…
By Caroline Grady April 01, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Recent disruptions and illiquidity in the UST market reflects an initial rapid shift in fundamentals as long-term growth expectations fell. Discrepancies…
By Caroline Grady April 01, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Pay out on the World Bank’s pandemic bonds may still be a few weeks away, or may never come at all, as various criteria on the number of poor…
By Caroline Grady March 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation
Christine Lagarde’s ECB press conference was a blunder from the point of view of market stabilisation. But now they are all in on bond buying with earlier…
By Caroline Grady March 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities
Goldman’s head of equity trading for Americas discusses similarities and differences between the current crisis and that of 2008. In 2008 we knew what…
By Caroline Grady March 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market
Claudia Sahm projects the current shock will be twice as severe as the great recession given activity has shut down and a huge share of the workforce…
By Caroline Grady March 19, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality
The fiscal response to COVID-19 is increasing by the day. Several countries have now announced multiple packages after it became apparent that the initial…
By Caroline Grady March 13, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Economics
Goldman’s global head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie gives his take on this week’s turmoil in the oil market. The coronavirus and oil price war…
By Caroline Grady March 13, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues
Editors from VoxEU talk about the new eBook on the economics of the coronavirus written by leading academics and policymakers. And the prognosis…
By Caroline Grady March 13, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
Franklin Templeton’s Multi-Asset Solutions team discuss how to play the heightened market volatility from the coronavirus and the oil shock…
By Caroline Grady March 12, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
Joe Biden has consolidated his lead in the race to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Tuesday’s wins in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Idaho…
By Caroline Grady March 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
On Thursday Christine Lagarde will face her toughest test yet as ECB President. The emergency rate cuts from both the Fed and Bank of England…
By Caroline Grady March 06, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US
Comeback kid: Joe Biden has been the favourite four times already in this race. After Super Tuesday he is now the overwhelming favourite. Biden has…
By Caroline Grady March 06, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics
Charles Kenny from Centre for Global Development contextualises the structural shift in global wealth by highlighting that the economy of California is…
By Caroline Grady March 06, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues
Bruegel experts present opposing views on what the coronavirus means for the future of globalisation, in particular international supply chains and…
By Caroline Grady March 05, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market
COVID-19 supply chain disruptions will abruptly end the nascent recovery in global trade. The demand shock from quarantines and other…
By Caroline Grady February 28, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues
IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva and Lord Nicholas Stern, of the London School of Economics, discuss the challenges brought by…
By Caroline Grady February 28, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation
Economic historian Paul Schmelzing discusses his new paper “Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline…
By Caroline Grady February 28, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Jim Bianco, from Bianco Research, Mike Shedlock from Money Maven, Dr Ben Hunt – author of Epsilon Theory and Dr Chris Martenson from…
By Caroline Grady February 27, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Growth & Labour Market
COVID-19 is significantly impacting Asian economies. But India’s relatively small manufacturing base and low integration into global supply chains…
By Caroline Grady February 21, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
DB’s credit research analyst Craig Nicol shares insights on the $250bn green bond market. In the absence of an official definition Nicol describes…
By Caroline Grady February 21, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy
FT Lex writer Alan Livsey discusses his estimate of $900bn in “stranded assets” from the shift towards cleaner energy – defined as investment that…
By Caroline Grady February 21, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics US
Binyamin Appelbaum, New York Times editorial writer and author of the Economists’ Hour, discusses economists’ influence on US public policy since…
By Caroline Grady February 20, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market
The European economy is grinding to a halt. Fourth quarter GDP growth slowed to the lowest for almost seven years, and supply-side disruption from…
By Caroline Grady February 14, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
Philipp Hildebrand, BlackRock’s Vice Chairman, and Rachel Lord, Head of Europe, Middle East and Africa discuss the company’s pivot towards…
By Caroline Grady February 14, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Investment Strategy
UBS set out their positive investment case for China even with the coronavirus outbreak. They assume the containment efforts have worked, and…
By Caroline Grady February 14, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy US
Goldman Sachs are bullish view on US equities. This is based the very high probability of positive returns during an expansion, and that data…
By Caroline Grady February 07, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality US
US Treasury secretary discusses his views on tax policy and the US economy. The US government is under resourced. The share of tax revenues in GDP…
By Caroline Grady February 07, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology US
Harvard Business School’s Bill Kerr discusses tech (and talent) clusters and the innovation and investment this can bring to an area…
By Caroline Grady February 07, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | EM Equities Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy
Principal Global Investors global strategist Seema Shah expects the main investment themes for 2020 to remain relevant despite the downside risks…
By Caroline Grady February 07, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Credit
Only two companies in the US currently have a AAA rating (Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson). Previously a much larger number of companies…
By Caroline Grady February 07, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
Experts from Goldman Sachs and the University of Chicago discuss how investors are approaching climate change. We are still very far away to meeting…
By Caroline Grady January 31, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Luke Gromen, founder of macro thematic firm Forest for the Trees, discusses why the Fed is committed to financing US deficits, the outlook for…
By Caroline Grady January 31, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market
Good news is that global recession risks have now eased. But several big risks remain. US versus China in trade and technology. Two countries…
By Caroline Grady January 31, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues
Director of Brooking’s Africa Growth Initiative discusses a new report, “Foresight Africa: Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030”, touching on…
By Caroline Grady January 31, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics UK
Recent good news on the economy with a post-election bounce in sentiment. PMIs improved while consumer spending (housing, car sales)…
By Caroline Grady January 31, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Major transformation is going on without major policy initiatives in place yet. Energy transition kicked off around 2010, pushed first by policy support…
By Caroline Grady January 31, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation UK
Many had expected Mark Carney to cut rates as his parting gift as Bank of England Governor, but in the end the MPC kept rates unchanged at…
By Caroline Grady January 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
The BBC reports from Italy on whether hydrogen can be the fuel of the future. They use Venice as their example. Venice’s poor air quality…
By Caroline Grady January 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton’s Fixed Income CIO, discusses concerns and ideas for the US in the year ahead…
By Caroline Grady January 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
Top questions for the airline industry this year: 1) will the airlines be able to offset cost inflation from (highly unionised) labour and airport…
By Caroline Grady January 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics
Cato analysts review the Phase 1 US-China deal and the USMCA that was passed in the Senate last week. Phase 1 is a mixed bag. It prevents further…
By Caroline Grady January 24, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation
DB’s thematic research team presents a fairly positive view of the global economy…
By Caroline Grady January 24, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Sustainability & Social Issues
The ECB’s first strategic review in more than 16 years is now officially underway. The findings will shape the future of monetary policy, most likely with…
By Caroline Grady January 17, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Economics
A panel of Chinese and American scholars discuss the China’s economy in a long-term perspective. China aims be labelled a ‘rich’ country by 2049…
By Caroline Grady January 17, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Drew Carter hosts four PMs (Michael Corty¸ George Metrou, Matthew Coffina and John Owens) to discuss views on evaluating and selecting stocks…
By Caroline Grady January 17, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
CIO of Alhambra Investments, Jeff Snider, talks on the real causes of slack in the US economy and its underperformance against potential. He cites…
By Caroline Grady January 17, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues
Trend expert Marian Salzman of Philip Morris discusses her report “Chaos is the New Normal” and talks about 20 trends for 2020:…
By Caroline Grady January 17, 2020
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities US
Wall Street’s bonus culture is slowly disappearing with big market wins often now made by algorithms not humans. Equities and FX markets are hit…
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