Caroline Grady

Macro Hive Author

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SPECIALITY: Global Macro, Economics,

Caroline Grady is a Senior Researcher at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.

MY ARTICLES


  • GBPEUR

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    A Week Of Contrasts For Euro And Pound

    September 10, 2020

    This mood music over the past few days has been in stark contrast between Frankfurt and London. ECB president Christine Lagarde today…

  • China Economy

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics

    China Economy Losing Steam

    September 10, 2020

    Chinese trade data earlier this week showed imports growth falling deeper into negative territory (-2.1% YoY), while credit data due in the…

  • ECB Preview

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

    ECB Preview: All About The Euro

    September 08, 2020

    Euro strength and the current bout of deflation are set to dominate this week’s ECB meeting. We expect no policy announcements, but,…

  • Bullish INR

    In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

    Turning Positive On INR

    September 03, 2020

    New highs in India’s basic balance should support further INR strength Currency strength remains at odds with a very weak macro outlook…

  • Trump Election Odds

    In: Hive Exclusives | US

    Trump Re-election Odds Jump, As Does Chance Of Rising Market Uncertainty

    September 02, 2020

    Donald Trump’s chances of winning re-election on 3 November are rising. The likelihood of a Democrat sweep – and with it any…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets FX

    Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam All Risk ‘Currency Manipulator’ Label

    July 30, 2020

    The forthcoming US Treasury FX manipulation report will probably add several Asian countries to its watchlist. It may even go so far…

  • INR Outlook

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets FX

    Asia FX Outlook – Why INR Continues To Defy Gloomy Outlook

    July 23, 2020

    - CNY appreciation to continue despite mixed signals on recovery - C/A dynamics support INR, but economic outlook remains weak - Gloomy…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics

    EU Recovery Fund Agreement To Set Tone For The Summer

    July 21, 2020

    After four days of negotiations, EU27 leaders have agreed a landmark deal on a European recovery fund and the next seven-year budget.…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Europe Preview: EU Summit To Set Summer Mood

    July 15, 2020

    The next few days could mark an important turning point for Europe. Agreement on a €750bn EU recovery fund, even if only…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics FX Growth & Labour Market Rates

    Asia FX Outlook – Remaining Bullish On China

    July 09, 2020

    - CNY to benefit from rising yield differentials and a strong recovery - INR continues to defy dismal economic reality due to…

  • Taiwan Dollar

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    Asia FX Outlook – Intervention To Cap Further TWD Gains

    June 25, 2020

    Markets have been on a bumpy ride over the past two weeks. Ongoing policy stimulus and relaxation of COVID lockdowns continue to buoy risk…

  • EMFX

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets

    Falling Remittances Amplify EMFX Vulnerabilities

    June 18, 2020

    Deteriorating C/A positions are beginning to raise concerns over currency performance in some emerging markets. Lockdowns have triggered an…

  • Trump Jinping

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

    China – US Tension Tracker Timeline

    June 11, 2020

    Last month’s decision by China to impose a new security law on Hong Kong has triggered a new stage in US-China tensions. The US is set to revoke…

  • ECB delivers

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    ECB Delivers By Upsizing PEPP

    June 04, 2020

    Today’s increase in the size of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) adds another layer to Europe’s response…

  • ECB Meeting

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation

    ECB Preview: Time To Step Up PEPP

    June 03, 2020

    Thursday’s ECB governing council meeting comes amid a shifting European landscape. Since the last policy meeting in April, the ECB now faces the…

  • Argentina Alfonso Prat-Gay

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Alfonso Prat-Gay

    May 28, 2020

    We were delighted to have Alfonso Prat-Gay, Argentina’s former central bank governor (2002-2004) and finance minister (2015-2016) as our podcast…

  • Uk Current Accout

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics UK

    The UK, COVID And The C/A Deficit

    May 21, 2020

    Fiscal expansion in response to COVID and the forthcoming spike in debt have dominated investor concerns in recent months. But these significantly…

  • Quantitative Easing

    In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Spillovers From ECB QE – Global Yet Varied

    May 20, 2020

    Central bank bond buying has accelerated at an unprecedented pace during the COVID crisis. The impact of large asset purchases on home markets…

  • South Korea COVID Crisis

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Fiscal Policy & Inequality

    South Korea: Fiscal Buffers Eased The COVID Crisis

    May 07, 2020

    South Korea is an often-cited example of a country that has successfully controlled COVID. And the economic fallout looks to be significantly less…

  • Lagarde ECB

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    ECB Preview – Committing To Do More

    April 29, 2020

    The ECB’s governing council has significantly stepped up its crisis response since the last scheduled policy meeting six weeks ago. It’s delivered…

  • WFH

    In: Deep Dives | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues

    A Framework To Ease Working from Home

    April 29, 2020

    Governments worldwide are facing tough decisions on how to ease lockdown restrictions. Given the trade-off between the spread of the virus and…

  • PMI Decline

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market

    PMI Decline Far Eclipses The GFC

    April 23, 2020

    The huge economic cost of the COVID lockdowns is becoming evident. European PMIs have collapsed to a level far below that recorded in…

  • China Recession

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Growth & Labour Market

    Why China Cannot Decouple From A Global Recession

    April 02, 2020

    While much of the world is in freefall, activity in China is rebounding. This disconnect looks set to continue for now, with new cases of COVID-19 in China…

  • Domestic Policy COVID19

    In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets FX

    Robin Brooks On COVID-19’s Impact On Emerging Markets And The Domestic Policy Response To The Crisis (Macro Musings)

    April 01, 2020

    The pace of the selloff in EM is unprecedented, even compared to the GFC and 2013 taper tantrum. MXN stands out with a 30% depreciation over…

  • Pandemic Preparedness

    In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues

    From Cholera To Coronavirus (Talking Politics – LRB)

    April 01, 2020

    Parallels between the 19th century Cholera outbreak and the coronavirus include the disproportionate hit on the poor where people live closer…

  • Jay Powell

    In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Simon White: Aftermath Of The Biggest Monetary Policy Intervention In World History (Macro Voices)

    April 01, 2020

    Virus is a trigger for Japanification of the US. Unlimited and immediate Fed QE (including corporate bonds) plus the biggest fiscal package in US history…

  • USD Safe Haven

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    How The Crisis Nearly Blew Up One Of The World’s Safest Trades (Odd Lots, Bloomberg Markets)

    April 01, 2020

    Recent disruptions and illiquidity in the UST market reflects an initial rapid shift in fundamentals as long-term growth expectations fell. Discrepancies…

  • Pandemic Bonds

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Pandemic Bonds (The Indicator – Planet Money)

    April 01, 2020

    Pay out on the World Bank’s pandemic bonds may still be a few weeks away, or may never come at all, as various criteria on the number of poor…

  • Christian Lagarde

    In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Adam Tooze Part 2 (Talking Politics – LRB)

    March 24, 2020

    Christine Lagarde’s ECB press conference was a blunder from the point of view of market stabilisation. But now they are all in on bond buying with earlier…

  • GFC vs Corona Crisis

    In: Podcast Playlists | Equities

    Markets Update: How COVID-19 Is And Isn’t Like the ’08 Financial Crisis (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs)

    March 24, 2020

    Goldman’s head of equity trading for Americas discusses similarities and differences between the current crisis and that of 2008. In 2008 we knew what…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market

    Claudia Sahm On Direct Payments To Individuals And Other Policy Responses To The COVID-19 Crisis (Macro Musings)

    March 24, 2020

    Claudia Sahm projects the current shock will be twice as severe as the great recession given activity has shut down and a huge share of the workforce…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

    Not All Fiscal Stimuli Are Created Equal

    March 19, 2020

    The fiscal response to COVID-19 is increasing by the day. Several countries have now announced multiple packages after it became apparent that the initial…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Economics

    After A Sharp Drop In Prices, What’s Next For Oil? (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs)

    March 13, 2020

    Goldman’s global head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie gives his take on this week’s turmoil in the oil market. The coronavirus and oil price war…

  • Pandemic Outbreak

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues

    Economics In The Time Of Covid-19 (Vox Talks – Vox EU)

    March 13, 2020

    Editors from VoxEU talk about the new eBook on the economics of the coronavirus written by leading academics and policymakers. And the prognosis…

  • Market Volatility

    In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

    Looking Ahead: Market Volatility And Preparing For Possible Outcomes (Talking Markets With Franklin Templeton)

    March 13, 2020

    Franklin Templeton’s Multi-Asset Solutions team discuss how to play the heightened market volatility from the coronavirus and the oil shock…

  • Joe Biden in the Lead

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

    Biden: A Moderate-ish Democrat

    March 12, 2020

    Joe Biden has consolidated his lead in the race to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Tuesday’s wins in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Idaho…

  • Central Bank Rate Cuts

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    ECB: Under Pressure To Act

    March 11, 2020

    On Thursday Christine Lagarde will face her toughest test yet as ECB President. The emergency rate cuts from both the Fed and Bank of England…

  • Joe Biden Super Tuesday

    In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US

    Super Tuesday Special: Biden’s Back! (Talking Politics – LRB)

    March 06, 2020

    Comeback kid: Joe Biden has been the favourite four times already in this race. After Super Tuesday he is now the overwhelming favourite. Biden has…

  • Private Wealth

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

    How Wealth Has Changed (The Indicator – Planet Money)

    March 06, 2020

    Charles Kenny from Centre for Global Development contextualises the structural shift in global wealth by highlighting that the economy of California is…

  • Changes in Globalisation

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues

    Will Globalisation Survive The Coronavirus? (The Sound Of Economics – Bruegel)

    March 06, 2020

    Bruegel experts present opposing views on what the coronavirus means for the future of globalisation, in particular international supply chains and…

  • Deglobalisation

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

    COVID-19 De-globalisation Shock

    March 05, 2020

    COVID-19 supply chain disruptions will abruptly end the nascent recovery in global trade. The demand shock from quarantines and other…

  • Lord Nicholas Stern

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues

    Kristalina Georgieva and Lord Nicholas Stern Talk Climate (IMF Podcasts)

    February 28, 2020

    IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva and Lord Nicholas Stern, of the London School of Economics, discuss the challenges brought by…

  • Economic Policy in a World

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Paul Schmelzing On The ‘Suprasecular’ Decline Of Global Real Interest Rates (Macro Musings)

    February 28, 2020

    Economic historian Paul Schmelzing discusses his new paper “Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline…

  • Coronavirus Fears

    In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues

    COVID Super-Spreader Stealth Pandemic? (Macro Voices)

    February 28, 2020

    Jim Bianco, from Bianco Research, Mike Shedlock from Money Maven, Dr Ben Hunt – author of Epsilon Theory and Dr Chris Martenson from…

  • Economic Power

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Growth & Labour Market

    India: Asia’s Insulated Economy

    February 27, 2020

    COVID-19 is significantly impacting Asian economies. But India’s relatively small manufacturing base and low integration into global supply chains…

  • Green Bonds

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

    Green Bonds – Increasingly Relevant in the Corporate Bond Market (Podzept, Deutsche Bank Research)

    February 21, 2020

    DB’s credit research analyst Craig Nicol shares insights on the $250bn green bond market. In the absence of an official definition Nicol describes…

  • Oil and Gas Companies UK

    In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

    Are Oil And Gas Turning Into Stranded Assets? (News in Focus, Financial Times)

    February 21, 2020

    FT Lex writer Alan Livsey discusses his estimate of $900bn in “stranded assets” from the shift towards cleaner energy – defined as investment that…

  • American Economic Review

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics US

    Did Economists Ruin The Economy With Binyamin Appelbaum (Capitalisn’t)

    February 21, 2020

    Binyamin Appelbaum, New York Times editorial writer and author of the Economists’ Hour, discusses economists’ influence on US public policy since…

  • European Economy

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market

    Can A Fragile European Economy Withstand Another Shock?

    February 20, 2020

    The European economy is grinding to a halt. Fourth quarter GDP growth slowed to the lowest for almost seven years, and supply-side disruption from…

  • ESG Investing

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

    Sustainability. Our New Standard: The View From Europe (The Bid, BlackRock)

    February 14, 2020

    Philipp Hildebrand, BlackRock’s Vice Chairman, and Rachel Lord, Head of Europe, Middle East and Africa discuss the company’s pivot towards…

  • GDP Impact

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Investment Strategy

    UBS’s China Bull (What Goes Up, Bloomberg Markets)

    February 14, 2020

    UBS set out their positive investment case for China even with the coronavirus outbreak. They assume the containment efforts have worked, and…

  • Bull Market

    In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy US

    Why Investing In The Longest Bull Market In History Is Still A Smart Move (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs)

    February 14, 2020

    Goldman Sachs are bullish view on US equities. This is based the very high probability of positive returns during an expansion, and that data…

  • Larry Summers

    In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality US

    Larry Summers On Progressive Tax Reform (Brookings Cafeteria Podcasts)

    February 07, 2020

    US Treasury secretary discusses his views on tax policy and the US economy. The US government is under resourced. The share of tax revenues in GDP…

  • Largest Tech Companies

    In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology US

    The Origins Of Tech Clusters (Vox Talks, Vox EU)

    February 07, 2020

    Harvard Business School’s Bill Kerr discusses tech (and talent) clusters and the innovation and investment this can bring to an area…

  • Coronavirus Update

    In: Podcast Playlists | EM Equities Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy

    Velocity Of Risk Goes Viral (What Goes Up, Bloomberg Markets)

    February 07, 2020

    Principal Global Investors global strategist Seema Shah expects the main investment themes for 2020 to remain relevant despite the downside risks…

  • Capital Credit

    In: Podcast Playlists | Credit

    Triple-A Ratings Are So Yesterday (The Indicator – NPR, Planet Money)

    February 07, 2020

    Only two companies in the US currently have a AAA rating (Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson). Previously a much larger number of companies…

  • Climate Finance

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

    Investing In Climate Change (Top of Mind, Goldman Sachs)

    February 07, 2020

    Experts from Goldman Sachs and the University of Chicago discuss how investors are approaching climate change. We are still very far away to meeting…

  • USA Stock Exchange

    In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Stock Market Melt-up w/ Luke Gromen (We Study Billionaires – The Investor’s Podcast)

    January 31, 2020

    Luke Gromen, founder of macro thematic firm Forest for the Trees, discusses why the Fed is committed to financing US deficits, the outlook for…

  • Nouriel Roubini

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

    Nouriel Roubini On What Could Trigger The Next Global Recession (Take 15, CFA Institute)

    January 31, 2020

    Good news is that global recession risks have now eased. But several big risks remain. US versus China in trade and technology. Two countries…

  • African Leaders

    In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues

    Challenges And Opportunities For Africa’s Next Decade (Brookings Cafeteria Podcasts)

    January 31, 2020

    Director of Brooking’s Africa Growth Initiative discusses a new report, “Foresight Africa: Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030”, touching on…

  • Sajid Javid

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics UK

    Chancellor Sajid Javid Talks Up The Economy, And What’s Next After Brexit Day (UK Politics, Financial Times)

    January 31, 2020

    Recent good news on the economy with a post-election bounce in sentiment. PMIs improved while consumer spending (housing, car sales)…

  • Climate Finance

    In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues

    Why The Transition To Clean Energy Is Happening A Lot Faster Than People Realize (Odd Lots, Bloomberg Markets)

    January 31, 2020

    Major transformation is going on without major policy initiatives in place yet. Energy transition kicked off around 2010, pushed first by policy support…

  • Mark Carney Leaving

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

    Bank Of England Didn’t Blink

    January 31, 2020

    Many had expected Mark Carney to cut rates as his parting gift as Bank of England Governor, but in the end the MPC kept rates unchanged at…

  • Hydrogen Station

    In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues

    Hydrogen: The Answer To Climate Change (World of Business – BBC Radio)

    January 24, 2020

    The BBC reports from Italy on whether hydrogen can be the fuel of the future. They use Venice as their example. Venice’s poor air quality…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    On My Mind: Will The US Economy Survive The Politics In 2020? (Talking Markets with Frank Templeton)

    January 24, 2020

    Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton’s Fixed Income CIO, discusses concerns and ideas for the US in the year ahead…

  • Planes

    In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    What’s Next For The Airline Industry? (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs)

    January 24, 2020

    Top questions for the airline industry this year: 1) will the airlines be able to offset cost inflation from (highly unionised) labour and airport…

  • Global Trade

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics

    Reasons For Concern In Two New Trade Deals (Cato Daily Podcast)

    January 24, 2020

    Cato analysts review the Phase 1 US-China deal and the USMCA that was passed in the Senate last week. Phase 1 is a mixed bag. It prevents further…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

    The House View: 2020 Outlook – Gaining Speed (Podzept, Deutsche Bank Research)

    January 24, 2020

    DB’s thematic research team presents a fairly positive view of the global economy…

  • Lagarde

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Sustainability & Social Issues

    ECB’s Green New Deal?

    January 24, 2020

    The ECB’s first strategic review in more than 16 years is now officially underway. The findings will shape the future of monetary policy, most likely with…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Economics

    China 2049: Economic Challenges Of A Rising Global Power (Brookings Events)

    January 17, 2020

    A panel of Chinese and American scholars discuss the China’s economy in a long-term perspective. China aims be labelled a ‘rich’ country by 2049…

  • Investor Cartoon

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Picking Stocks For The Long Run: 4 Portfolio Managers Share Their Thoughts (Simple but Not Easy, Morningstar)

    January 17, 2020

    Drew Carter hosts four PMs (Michael Corty¸ George Metrou, Matthew Coffina and John Owens) to discuss views on evaluating and selecting stocks…

  • US Federal Reserve

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    All-Stars #88 Jeff Snider: The Fed Is Avoiding The Real Issue Driving Divergences In Their Models (Macro Voices)

    January 17, 2020

    CIO of Alhambra Investments, Jeff Snider, talks on the real causes of slack in the US economy and its underperformance against potential. He cites…

  • Climate Change Cartoon

    In: Podcast Playlists | Sustainability & Social Issues

    Sustainability. Our New Standard (The Bid, BlackRock)

    January 17, 2020

    Trend expert Marian Salzman of Philip Morris discusses her report “Chaos is the New Normal” and talks about 20 trends for 2020:…

  • Wall Street Sign

    In: Podcast Playlists | Equities US

    Machines Are Replacing Wall Street’s Bonus Culture (P&L, Bloomberg Markets)

    January 17, 2020

    Wall Street’s bonus culture is slowly disappearing with big market wins often now made by algorithms not humans. Equities and FX markets are hit…

  • GBPEUR

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    A Week Of Contrasts For Euro And Pound

    September 10, 2020

    This mood music over the past few days has been in stark contrast between Frankfurt and London. ECB president Christine Lagarde today…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | US

    Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump

    August 26, 2020

    Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…

  • Trump Jinping

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

    China – US Tension Tracker Timeline

    June 11, 2020

    Last month’s decision by China to impose a new security law on Hong Kong has triggered a new stage in US-China tensions. The US is set to revoke…

  • Singapore FX

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    Asia FX Insights

    June 02, 2020

    The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…

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