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    About Macro Hive

    Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro research and strategy.

    Trusted by clients at 7 of the world's top 10 banks and all top 5 hedge funds, we combine best-in-class human and artificial intelligence to provide institutional investors with market-leading investment opportunities.

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    Hive on Media more videos

    NFP, a 50bp Fed Cut in September, and Recession Signs

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    US CPI and 2024 Fed Cuts

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    If the Fed Is Done, Do You Buy Bonds?

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    AI Insights read all

    1. AI Reflections: Which LLM Performs Best? Our Benchmark Says Fine-Tuning Wins

      Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]

    2. AI reflections: Think Before You Speak!

      Summary Inference-time scaling is the New Frontier: AI progress is shifting to focus more on inference-time scaling techniques that refine responses after initial training. Deeper Reasoning, Longer Waits: Enabling models to break complex tasks into smaller steps during inference results in longer waiting times but better responses. Better Cost-Outcome Alignment: This approach better aligns cost […]

    3. 8 Cool New AI Papers: From Anxious LLMs to Fake News Detection

      Assessing and Alleviating State Anxiety in LLMs: Finds that trauma prompts can change the ‘state’ anxiety of LLMs, while relaxation ones reduce anxiety! Structured Outputs Enable General-Purpose LLMs to Be Medical Experts: The paper does away with fine-tuning an LLM on medical data and instead introduces a seven-step cognitive process (chain-of-thought) to answer questions. E.g., […]

    Latest Research read all

    AI Reflections: Which LLM Performs Best? Our Benchmark Says Fine-Tuning Wins

    Dalvir Mandara, Eric Wang, Bilal Hafeez

    Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]

    1. G10 FX Weekly: Go Long UST When Its Price Dips

      Richard Jones

      Summary On 14 February, the US Treasury (UST) 2-year, 10-year, and the 30-year yields were at ~4.30%, ~4.5% and 4.70%, respectively. Back then, we thought UST yields would trade within the YTD ranges established at that time. UST yields then plummeted to new YTD lows and have now bounced. Market Implications We think that there […]

    2. Momentum Model Flip Bullish USTs and Reduce USD Bullishness

      Richard Jones

      When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.1% over the past week, with rates models up +0.5% WoW, and FX models down -0.1% WoW and equity models down -0.3% WoW. Momentum models are up +0.2% […]

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 301: Andrew Polk on China’s Bet on Tech Supremacy

      Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors.

    2. Ep. 300: Gary Gerstle on Decoding Trump: Power & Chaos (Live at Cambridge University)

      Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).

    3. Ep. 259: Thanos Papasavvas on Trump’s (Unsurprising) Geopolitical Shock

      Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992.

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