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    About Macro Hive

    Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro research and strategy.

    Trusted by clients at 7 of the world's top 10 banks and all top 5 hedge funds, we combine best-in-class human and artificial intelligence to provide institutional investors with market-leading investment opportunities.

    Our experts leverage large language models, such as those that power chatbots like ChatGPT, to develop innovative, data-driven solutions to complex financial problems and to build state-of-the-art models in search of alpha signals across asset classes.

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    Hive on Media more videos

    NFP, a 50bp Fed Cut in September, and Recession Signs

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    US CPI and 2024 Fed Cuts

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    If the Fed Is Done, Do You Buy Bonds?

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    AI Insights read all

    1. AI Reflections: DeepSeek’s Lesson – A Playbook for Assessing the AI Cycle

      Summary The ‘DeepSeek moment’ selloff earlier this year was primarily driven by the unwind of crowded momentum stocks and de-grossing events, rather than the popular narratives at the time concerning DeepSeek’s model development or fears about GPU requirements. AI demand continues to soar, evidenced by an exponential increase in token processing (e.g., Google processing nearly […]

    2. AI’s Surprisingly Limited Macro Footprint (So Far)

      Summary The AI revolution’s footprint has so far been much bigger in markets than in the real economy. The Magnificent Seven’s extremely large capex spending has a high import component that limits its GDP impact. IT employment is gently falling but represents only about 2% of private employment. As AI adoption spreads to the whole […]

    3. AI Reflections: Which LLM Performs Best? Our Benchmark Says Fine-Tuning Wins

      Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]

    Latest Research read all

    1. Key Events: Will Cook Firing Attempt Influence Fed Speakers?

      Macro Hive

      Key Events For Insights Into Market Pricing and Forecasts Around Key Events, Visit Our NEW Event Monitor! G10 Event Monitor We release our US NFP, UER and IJC forecasts on Tuesday. In the US, the key data is: August ISM – Tuesday. After July’s positive income and spending data, consensus expects August’s ISM to improve […]

    2. Momentum Models Flip Bearish on US Long Bonds

      Ben Ford

      When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models delivered another negative weekly outing, down -0.2%. Equity momentum models performed worst (-0.3% WoW), while FX momentum models registered a smaller loss (-0.3% WoW) and rates momentum models a marginal […]

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 323: Jonathan Xiong on China, Dollar and Using AI in Asset Management

      Jonathan Xiong is the founder and CEO/CIO of Arrowpoint Investment Partners, a new Asia-focused hedge fund. Prior to starting Arrowpoint, Jonathan was the Co-CEO of Millennium Management Asia for five years.

    2. Ep. 322: Rerelease – Adam Frank on Aliens, AI and Climate Collapse

      Adam Frank is a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester. A self-described ‘evangelist of science,’ Adam regularly writes and speaks about subjects like intelligent life forms in the universe, high-energy-density physics, space exploration and missions, climate change and more.

    3. Ep. 321: Antonio Del Favero on Favourite Rates Trades, Fed and Dollar

      Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and G3 rates markets. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard.

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