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    Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro research and strategy.

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    Hive on Media more videos

    NFP, a 50bp Fed Cut in September, and Recession Signs

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    US CPI and 2024 Fed Cuts

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    If the Fed Is Done, Do You Buy Bonds?

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    AI Insights read all

    1. AI reflections: Think Before You Speak!

      Summary Inference-time scaling is the New Frontier: AI progress is shifting to focus more on inference-time scaling techniques that refine responses after initial training. Deeper Reasoning, Longer Waits: Enabling models to break complex tasks into smaller steps during inference results in longer waiting times but better responses. Better Cost-Outcome Alignment: This approach better aligns cost […]

    2. 8 Cool New AI Papers: From Anxious LLMs to Fake News Detection

      Assessing and Alleviating State Anxiety in LLMs: Finds that trauma prompts can change the ‘state’ anxiety of LLMs, while relaxation ones reduce anxiety! Structured Outputs Enable General-Purpose LLMs to Be Medical Experts: The paper does away with fine-tuning an LLM on medical data and instead introduces a seven-step cognitive process (chain-of-thought) to answer questions. E.g., […]

    3. AI Reflections: Smarter, Faster, Cheaper – But Still Not Ready

      Summary Despite significant strides in speed, cost, intelligence, and multi-modal capabilities, AI has yet to move from testing to widespread adoption. Key barriers to adoption include hallucinations, limited memory, reliance on good prompts, and poor real-world adaptability. For AI to deliver real business value, there must be a shift in focus from just improving models […]

    Latest Research read all

    1. AI Reflections: Smarter, Faster, Cheaper – But Still Not Ready

      Viresh Kanabar

      Summary Despite significant strides in speed, cost, intelligence, and multi-modal capabilities, AI has yet to move from testing to widespread adoption. Key barriers to adoption include hallucinations, limited memory, reliance on good prompts, and poor real-world adaptability. For AI to deliver real business value, there must be a shift in focus from just improving models […]

    2. Momentum Model Flip Bullish USTs and Reduce USD Bullishness

      Richard Jones

      When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.1% over the past week, with rates models up +0.5% WoW, and FX models down -0.1% WoW and equity models down -0.3% WoW. Momentum models are up +0.2% […]

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 300: Gary Gerstle on Decoding Trump: Power & Chaos (Live at Cambridge University)

      Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).

    2. Ep. 259: Thanos Papasavvas on Trump’s (Unsurprising) Geopolitical Shock

      Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992.

    3. Ep. 258: Randy Schwimmer on Why Private Credit Is Performing

      Randy Schwimmer is Vice Chairman of Churchill, where he oversees the Investor Solutions Group. Previously, he served as Co-Head of Senior Lending, responsible for senior lending origination and capital markets.

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