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    About Macro Hive

    Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro research and strategy.

    Trusted by clients at 7 of the world's top 10 banks and all top 5 hedge funds, we combine best-in-class human and artificial intelligence to provide institutional investors with market-leading investment opportunities.

    Our experts leverage large language models, such as those that power chatbots like ChatGPT, to develop innovative, data-driven solutions to complex financial problems and to build state-of-the-art models in search of alpha signals across asset classes.

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    Hive on Media more videos

    NFP, a 50bp Fed Cut in September, and Recession Signs

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    US CPI and 2024 Fed Cuts

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    If the Fed Is Done, Do You Buy Bonds?

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    AI Insights read all

    1. AI Reflections: Which LLM Performs Best? Our Benchmark Says Fine-Tuning Wins

      Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]

    2. AI reflections: Think Before You Speak!

      Summary Inference-time scaling is the New Frontier: AI progress is shifting to focus more on inference-time scaling techniques that refine responses after initial training. Deeper Reasoning, Longer Waits: Enabling models to break complex tasks into smaller steps during inference results in longer waiting times but better responses. Better Cost-Outcome Alignment: This approach better aligns cost […]

    3. 8 Cool New AI Papers: From Anxious LLMs to Fake News Detection

      Assessing and Alleviating State Anxiety in LLMs: Finds that trauma prompts can change the ‘state’ anxiety of LLMs, while relaxation ones reduce anxiety! Structured Outputs Enable General-Purpose LLMs to Be Medical Experts: The paper does away with fine-tuning an LLM on medical data and instead introduces a seven-step cognitive process (chain-of-thought) to answer questions. E.g., […]

    Latest Research read all

    1. G10 FX Weekly: USD/CAD Downside Losing Momentum, Approaching Level Where It Should Bounce

      Richard Jones

      Summary USD/CAD is down for the sixth successive week, and for the eighth week in ten. The pair printed a new YTD low this week, where it currently trades. USD/CAD is approaching its 200-day moving average (DMA), very near 1.4000. Market Implications We think the 200-DMA should robustly support USD/CAD and with an RSI approaching […]

    2. Key Events: Tariff Fallout Set to Continue Driving Price Action

      Macro Hive

      Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Retail Sales – Wednesday. Consensus expects a big jump in the headline number to 1.4% MoM from 0.2% in February, but this is likely to reflect tariff frontrunning rather than underlying demand strength. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: UK labour market – […]

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 305: James van Geelen on ‘Haves vs Have Nots’ Theme, AI and Tariffs

      James van Geelen, the founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative 'megatrends' poised to shape societies, economies, and the market’s distribution of returns for years to come.

    2. Ep. 304: Zongyuan Zoe Liu on Calculated China vs Unpredictable US

      Zongyuan Zoe Liu is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations.

    3. Ep. 303: Mirza Baig on Trump’s Trade Strategy, China Risks and Canada’s Dilemma

      Mirza has a track record of 20 years in the field of researching and trading global foreign exchange. His methodology is built on comprehensive research on underlying fundamentals, rigorous scenario analysis, and a low-frequency, high-conviction approach for idea generation.

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