Hive Exclusivessee more…

  1. Equity Sector Update: Upgrade Retail

    John Tierney

    We upgrade the retail sector (XRT) from underweight to market-weight; and add two energy ETFs.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: UK CPI to Show First Signs of Energy Price Cap Adjustment

    Bilal Hafeez

    $-Bloc hike expectations moderated over the past week as inflation expectations pulled back. New Zealand’s two-year OIS swap slid 2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev)...

  3. Recession Probability at 42%

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    The probability of a recession within the next 12 months increases to 42% as the 2s10s slope increases.

  1. Earnings Weekly: Retailers Step Up

    John Tierney

    Only 15 SPX companies report earnings this week – but they are concentrated in the key retail and technology and semiconductor sectors.

  2. Energy Equities Poised to Rally Further

    John Tierney

    Even though the S&P 500 energy sector is up 41% in 2022 (vs. -17% for the broader index), we recommend an overweight position.

  3. Market Indicators That ALWAYS Work

    Thorsten Wegener

    It is not too difficult to call market lows, if you focus on the three, time-tested indicators below. They have nothing to do with macro analysis.

Market Data Suggests Fading EZ Inflation Ahead

Henry Occleston

Energy has played a large role in pushing Eurozone HICP higher. It continues to be the major driver of price rises in the near term.

Crypto Index Tracker: Crypto Bloodbath

Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara

Crypto markets have been plummeting on account of rising interest rates and stablecoin collapse. The Terra stablecoin (UST) recently de-pegged and continues to trade below par.

  1. Hardly a Dent: How Household Wealth Is Escaping the Selloff

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Despite pronounced equity and bond market weaknesses, the impact on household wealth has so far been limited.

  2. Markets Have Entered the Multiverse of Madness

    Bilal Hafeez

    Movie fans will know that the new phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe recently kicked off with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.

  3. The Crypto Quake Has Started

    Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara

    Higher US rates have caught up to bitcoin, which has now plunged 20% since the Fed meeting last Wednesday.

Traders’ Tips: Anticipate Your Regret

Matthew Tibble

Research shows our emotions are as influential as our rational analysis when deciding on an investment.

The Golden Age of Oil and Gas Producers

Josh Young

Rising global demand for oil and a gradual green transition mean we may be in the early stages of the next oil and gas supercycle.

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: US CPI and UK GDP in Focus

    Bilal Hafeez

    Hike expectations are rising across Scandinavia and the $-Bloc. Sweden’s two-year OIS swap jumped +2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev), closely followed by...

  2. Earnings Weekly: 1Q Earnings Flow Slows Finally

    John Tierney

    After recent doses of triple-digit floods of weekly earnings, a scant 21 companies report in the coming week.

  3. Recession Probability Drops Again

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    The probability of a recession within the next 12 months decreases to 38% as long-term yields rise faster than short-term yields.

FOMC Review: Falling Further Behind the Curve?

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

As expected, the Fed delivered quantitative tightening and a 50bp hike. Powell pushed back against 75bp in June and instead pre-announced 50bp in June and July.

BoE Review – Hawkish Dissent, But With a Dovish Twist

Henry Occleston

As expected, the MPC voted to hike rates by 25bps to 1.0%. However, the extent of the hawkish dissent was a surprise. I had expected Catherine Mann to vote for 50bps...

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