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  1. G10 Rates Weekly: GBP Set for Downside in 2H 2023

    Richard Jones

    UK economic data, most notably inflation and employment readings, have soured recently.

  2. Earnings Outlook: AI Bounds Ahead as Broader Market Stays on Hold

    John Tierney

    Last week was supposed to be about the debt ceiling drama, but Nvidia (NVDA) stole the stage with its earnings and aggressive demand outlook.

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: Could AI Manifest a New Bull Market?

    Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar

    NVDIA (NVDA) stole the show last week, surging 24.6% after providing better-than-expected guidance on the impact of AI on its revenues. Meanwhile, the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose by almost 11%. The impact on NVDA’s bottom line is material.

  1. Debt Ceiling Tracker: A Good Deal for the White House, Less So for the Fed

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    The deal agreed over the weekend leaves the Democrats well positioned for the 2024 elections but does little to stabilize the economy.

  2. XET Beating XBT, But Awaiting Next Bull Phase in the Legs

    Robin Wilkin

    Perhaps due to the risks around the debt ceiling and the USD rallying, crypto is continuing to ignore the move and de-couple from the Nasdaq. The technical outlook still views the price action as corrective.

  3. Crypto Index Tracker: Turbulent Times for Crypto

    Dalvir Mandara

    Crypto markets have tracked lower this week as investors digested the potential of a US debt default as well as comments from the latest FOMC minutes.

A Big Beat for UK Inflation

Henry Occleston

UK YoY headline inflation is back into single figures (+8.7%), but core (6.8%) and services  inflation (+6.9%) provided a strong offsetting hawkish surprise.

Oil Weekly: Low Gasoline Inventories Threaten Summer Spike

Viresh Kanabar

US gasoline inventories remain dangerously low at 218mn barrels. That is 6% lower than the five-year average of 233mn and the lowest during this time of year since 2014.

  1. Treasury, Fed Will Not Let X-Date Lead to Default

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    As long as the US stays current on its debt service payments, hitting the X-date will not lead to default. Past Federal Reserve (Fed) transcripts and Congressional inquiries show that in previous debt ceiling standoffs, the Treasury was planning to prioritize debt service payments. It is likely to do so this time around.

  2. Equity Insights – Regional Banks Are Morphing Into Zombies

    John Tierney

    Regional banks show few signs of recovering more than 10 weeks after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. To be blunt, the crisis is morphing into a slow-moving trainwreck.

  3. Debt Ceiling Tracker: Stalemate

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut and Mustafa Chowdhury

    On 18 May, the House Freedom Caucus (about 40-50 GOP lawmakers) publicly committed to making no concessions on the debt ceiling bill voted in April. 

Bilal’s Macroscope: Does the Market Ever Get the Fed Right?

Bilal Hafeez

At the start of 2022, the rates market expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rate to end the year at 1%. It turned out to be 4.5% – one of the biggest market errors in decades (Chart 1).

Zero Days to Castration Options – Bad Things Will Happen, Eventually

Thorsten Wegener

Now that I have your attention, let us use the proper term again for this increasingly popular trading instrument: Zero Days to Expiration Options, or short Zero DTE Options.

  1. Hedge Fund Insights by PivotalPath – The Battle With Uncertainty

    Jon Caplis

    The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 0.5% in April amid economic uncertainty around the US debt ceiling, along with recalibrated interest rate hikes and recession probabilities.

  2. G10 Rates Weekly: Four Trades for a Debt Ceiling Impasse

    Richard Jones

    Democrats and Republicans have been unable to reach a deal after extensive debt-ceiling and budget negotiations.

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: Debt Ceiling Developments and Key Inflation Prints

    Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar

    It was Fed speaker galore last week as we had 14 public appearances from FOMC members Bostic, Kashkari, Cook, Mester, Barr, Williams, Logan, Jefferson, Bowman and Powell.

Earnings Outlook: Equities Head to the Races

John Tierney

Equities powered through the fog of the debt ceiling imbroglio, finally rallying above the trading range of the past several months.

Looking for a New Bull Phase in Crypto

Robin Wilkin

The macro backdrop has been complicated by the US debt ceiling debacle. However, on the basis that it gets resolved, recent data has pushed market pricing back towards further tightening from the Fed and he risk we are still in between mid-late cycle...

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