Bilal Hafeez
Speech given to members of a leading UK political party in London on 5 December 2024. The UK’s Fundamental Problem: Productivity Rather than talking about the recent UK budget or other such announcements, I would rather discuss the broader context of what hampers the UK economy. From there, we can then understand which are the […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Time for Policymakers to Delegate? The last four years have been a torrid time for central banking. The Fed […]
Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Dragon Years With Mixed Feelings The Dragon symbolizes power and holds an esteemed place in Chinese culture. Yet Chinese […]
Bilal Hafeez, Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Dollar Dominance in Decline? The US dollar has been the dominant reserve currency held by central banks worldwide since […]
Richard Jones
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Football Focus My Grey Swan this year focuses on the plight of Manchester City. My low probability, maximum impact […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. DOGE Steps Up a Gear The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cannot be faulted for not trying hard enough. […]
Henry Occleston
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could Germany Become the Eurozone’s Savior? Eurozone integration never moves faster than it absolutely must. However, its greatest developments […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Promise Kept It is December 2025 and 11mn illegal migrants have been expelled. Nobody thought it possible. The incoming Trump […]
Ebrahim Rahbari
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could 2025 Be the Year of UAPs? You may be forgiven for not knowing what UAPs are. They are […]
Antonio Del Favero
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could DOGE Do the Impossible? In FY2024, total US government spending was $6.75tn against a total revenue of $4.92tn, […]
Henry Occleston
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Petition Impossible Almost three million people have signed a petition calling for a fresh General Election. Just seventeen more […]
Karl Massey
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. At the Crossroads In 2025, the world finds itself at a startling crossroad. While the US revels in an […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. The Gibson 24 December 2025 – Treasury Secretary Bessent steps out of his official car in front of the […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. The Allure of Low Rates Low interest rates, especially zero, are alluring. They boost asset prices, make funding the […]
Richard Jones
Summary Since peaking above 108 (intra-day) on 22 November, the US dollar Index (DXY) moved below 106 one week later and now trades just above 106, about 1.75% lower than that recent peak. Moves in US yields have been similar, with the 2-year yield now about 25bp off its peak two weeks ago and the […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/USD has bounced about 2% since bottoming out on a 1.03 handle (intra-day) last week. This has coincided with a decline in US yields across the curve. Crowded short positioning, plus oversold technicals that are starting to unwind, have also contributed to the rise in EUR/USD. Market Implications We still think EUR/USD can rally […]
Richard Jones
Summary The USD Index (DXY) has rallied to a new YTD high in the past week. This rally is pausing ahead of 107, which is also the 2023 high. The RSI for the USD index recently indicated the DXY was overbought and is now starting to unwind. Market Implications We think the DXY is due […]
Richard Jones
Summary The UK 2-year yield hovers near last week’s six-month high. The Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Review (MPR), following last week’s 25bps cut, broadly aligned with our expectations, without overly hawkish messaging. However, hawkish Fed pricing is feeding into BoE pricing, which challenges fading elevated UK short-end yields. Market Implications Despite the risks, […]
Richard Jones
Summary The US election triggered very choppy price action across all asset classes, with the USD especially volatile this week. USD/JPY, after spiking initially following the Trump victory, has pulled back considerably. USD/JPY price action makes us think further upside will not come easily, although volatility is likely to persist. Market Implications More USD/JPY downside, […]
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