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  1. ECB Preview: 50bp Now and in March, Upside Risk for Terminal Rate

    Henry Occleston

    I expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver a 50bp hike at the 2 February meeting, with a likelihood that President Lagarde telegraphs the same to come in March.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Fed, BoE and ECB to Hike Interest Rates

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Last week proved relatively light across major markets. The US economy registered a stronger-than-expected reading through Q4 (+2.9% QoQ SAAR).

  3. Earnings Outlook: Will Big Tech Make or Break the NASDAQ 100?

    John Tierney

    So far equities have shrugged off mostly negative company outlooks, preferring to focus on better times (and maybe lower rates) in H2 2023.

  1. Crypto Index Tracker: Bitcoin on Track for Best January in a Decade

    Dalvir Mandara

    Crypto markets have started the year with a bang. Bitcoin is on track to register its best performance for January since 2013! It gained c.+55% in January 2013 and has generally had a bias for negative performance since then with the trend only changing as of late (January 2020: +30%; January 2021: +13%).

  2. Trade Update: Turning Short Industrials and Materials

    John Tierney

    We are unwinding long positions in industrials (XLI) and materials (XLB). Both have outperformed the S&P 500 since inception on April 2022.

  3. FOMC Preview: Downshift Unlikely to Stir Markets

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Since the December 2022 meeting, the macro backdrop of lower inflation and strong employment growth has decisively validated neither hawks nor doves.

Equity Rundown: Positioning for a Soft H1 2023

John Tierney

Our long/short ETF model portfolio is up a modest 2% since inception, and 11% excluding the difficult clean energy sector. Clean energy ETFs hold some Chinese companies, which could recover if the reopening takes hold.

US Inflation to Return in H2?

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Currently, slowing inflation and very low unemployment are inconsistent, and either inflation or unemployment will eventually rise. 

  1. China Reopening Boosted by Tourist Groups

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Global departures sit at 103,000 per day, a touch lower than last week, but a level comparable to 2019 and just shy of the levels they were before Covid-19 struck in 2020 (Chart 1).

  2. Bank of Canada Preview: Strong Data to Prompt a 25bp Hike

    Ben Ford

    The labour force has continued to prove resilient with participation climbing, unemployment lower and wage growth remaining positive (vs core).

  3. Is the S&P 500 a Good Investment? Should I Buy It Now?

    Matthew Tibble

    We evaluate the latest S&P 500 trends and market drivers by considering all the relevant factors and risks to answer the question: Is S&P 500 a good investment now?

Markets to Watch This Week: Doves Could Dominate, BoC to Hike 25bp

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Over the past week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) failed to widen the yield curve control (YCC), contrary to our expectations. Instead, they added a new operation to help support the existing band (+/- 50bps).

Earnings Outlook: Advertising Spend Will Reveal Corporate Confidence

John Tierney

Equities continue to trade sideways as company outlooks point to a demand increase in the coming months. About 125 companies report this week, including Microsoft and Tesla, several airlines, and several major industrial corporations.

  1. Why the ECB Will Keep Hiking

    Henry Occleston

    Recent reports suggested the ECB may be ready to slow hikes come March. The market has duly priced this. However, data and policymaker comments suggest otherwise. I reiterate my expectation for ECB hawkishness.

  2. Crypto Index Tracker: Crypto Markets Unfazed by Genesis Bankruptcy

    Dalvir Mandara

    Big news: Genesis Trading, one of the biggest cryptocurrency lenders, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, making it the latest victim of the FTX fallout.

  3. Are Hedge Funds Actually Beating the Market?

    Jon Caplis

    Hedge funds performed well in 2022 against a backdrop of volatile and declining equity markets. In December, the PivotalPath Hedge Fund Composite Index rose 0.4% versus the S&P 500’s decline of 5.6%.

US Housing Will Be a Bellwether 2023 Market

Richard Jones

The US housing market is poised for a tough couple of years. A mix of challenging supply/demand dynamics, combined with stretched affordability and deteriorating sentiment, will weigh on the market.

On-Chain Metrics Turn Bullish Ethereum

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

Markets are pricing in a 25bp rate hike at the 1 February FOMC meeting, but Dominique expects a 50bp hike as she believes Q4 GDP (to be released on 26 January) will be well above the Federal Reserve (Fed) estimate.

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