
US, Europe, or Asia – Who is Most Bullish Bitcoin?
Dalvir Mandara
We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike 25bp (alongside consensus) and Chair Jerome Powell to address questions on possible cuts this year.
Dalvir Mandara
We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike 25bp (alongside consensus) and Chair Jerome Powell to address questions on possible cuts this year.
Henry Occleston
I expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver a 50bp hike at the 2 February meeting, with a likelihood that President Lagarde telegraphs the same to come in March.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Last week proved relatively light across major markets. The US economy registered a stronger-than-expected reading through Q4 (+2.9% QoQ SAAR).
John Tierney
So far equities have shrugged off mostly negative company outlooks, preferring to focus on better times (and maybe lower rates) in H2 2023.
Dalvir Mandara
Crypto markets have started the year with a bang. Bitcoin is on track to register its best performance for January since 2013! It gained c.+55% in January 2013 and has generally had a bias for negative performance since then with the trend only changing as of late (January 2020: +30%; January 2021: +13%).
John Tierney
We are unwinding long positions in industrials (XLI) and materials (XLB). Both have outperformed the S&P 500 since inception on April 2022.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Since the December 2022 meeting, the macro backdrop of lower inflation and strong employment growth has decisively validated neither hawks nor doves.
John Tierney
Our long/short ETF model portfolio is up a modest 2% since inception, and 11% excluding the difficult clean energy sector. Clean energy ETFs hold some Chinese companies, which could recover if the reopening takes hold.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Currently, slowing inflation and very low unemployment are inconsistent, and either inflation or unemployment will eventually rise.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global departures sit at 103,000 per day, a touch lower than last week, but a level comparable to 2019 and just shy of the levels they were before Covid-19 struck in 2020 (Chart 1).
Ben Ford
The labour force has continued to prove resilient with participation climbing, unemployment lower and wage growth remaining positive (vs core).
Matthew Tibble
We evaluate the latest S&P 500 trends and market drivers by considering all the relevant factors and risks to answer the question: Is S&P 500 a good investment now?
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Over the past week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) failed to widen the yield curve control (YCC), contrary to our expectations. Instead, they added a new operation to help support the existing band (+/- 50bps).
John Tierney
Equities continue to trade sideways as company outlooks point to a demand increase in the coming months. About 125 companies report this week, including Microsoft and Tesla, several airlines, and several major industrial corporations.
Henry Occleston
Recent reports suggested the ECB may be ready to slow hikes come March. The market has duly priced this. However, data and policymaker comments suggest otherwise. I reiterate my expectation for ECB hawkishness.
Dalvir Mandara
Big news: Genesis Trading, one of the biggest cryptocurrency lenders, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, making it the latest victim of the FTX fallout.
Jon Caplis
Hedge funds performed well in 2022 against a backdrop of volatile and declining equity markets. In December, the PivotalPath Hedge Fund Composite Index rose 0.4% versus the S&P 500’s decline of 5.6%.
Richard Jones
The US housing market is poised for a tough couple of years. A mix of challenging supply/demand dynamics, combined with stretched affordability and deteriorating sentiment, will weigh on the market.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
Markets are pricing in a 25bp rate hike at the 1 February FOMC meeting, but Dominique expects a 50bp hike as she believes Q4 GDP (to be released on 26 January) will be well above the Federal Reserve (Fed) estimate.
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