Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The US Treasury plans to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) by $500bn over the next four weeks, which would cause large money market volatility and is therefore likely to be revised down.
Richard Jones
UK economic data, most notably inflation and employment readings, have soured recently.
John Tierney
Last week was supposed to be about the debt ceiling drama, but Nvidia (NVDA) stole the stage with its earnings and aggressive demand outlook.
Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar
NVDIA (NVDA) stole the show last week, surging 24.6% after providing better-than-expected guidance on the impact of AI on its revenues. Meanwhile, the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose by almost 11%. The impact on NVDA’s bottom line is material.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The deal agreed over the weekend leaves the Democrats well positioned for the 2024 elections but does little to stabilize the economy.
Robin Wilkin
Perhaps due to the risks around the debt ceiling and the USD rallying, crypto is continuing to ignore the move and de-couple from the Nasdaq. The technical outlook still views the price action as corrective.
Dalvir Mandara
Crypto markets have tracked lower this week as investors digested the potential of a US debt default as well as comments from the latest FOMC minutes.
Henry Occleston
UK YoY headline inflation is back into single figures (+8.7%), but core (6.8%) and services inflation (+6.9%) provided a strong offsetting hawkish surprise.
Viresh Kanabar
US gasoline inventories remain dangerously low at 218mn barrels. That is 6% lower than the five-year average of 233mn and the lowest during this time of year since 2014.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
As long as the US stays current on its debt service payments, hitting the X-date will not lead to default. Past Federal Reserve (Fed) transcripts and Congressional inquiries show that in previous debt ceiling standoffs, the Treasury was planning to prioritize debt service payments. It is likely to do so this time around.
John Tierney
Regional banks show few signs of recovering more than 10 weeks after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. To be blunt, the crisis is morphing into a slow-moving trainwreck.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut and Mustafa Chowdhury
On 18 May, the House Freedom Caucus (about 40-50 GOP lawmakers) publicly committed to making no concessions on the debt ceiling bill voted in April.
Bilal Hafeez
At the start of 2022, the rates market expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rate to end the year at 1%. It turned out to be 4.5% – one of the biggest market errors in decades (Chart 1).
Thorsten Wegener
Now that I have your attention, let us use the proper term again for this increasingly popular trading instrument: Zero Days to Expiration Options, or short Zero DTE Options.
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 0.5% in April amid economic uncertainty around the US debt ceiling, along with recalibrated interest rate hikes and recession probabilities.
Richard Jones
Democrats and Republicans have been unable to reach a deal after extensive debt-ceiling and budget negotiations.
Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar
It was Fed speaker galore last week as we had 14 public appearances from FOMC members Bostic, Kashkari, Cook, Mester, Barr, Williams, Logan, Jefferson, Bowman and Powell.
John Tierney
Equities powered through the fog of the debt ceiling imbroglio, finally rallying above the trading range of the past several months.
Robin Wilkin
The macro backdrop has been complicated by the US debt ceiling debacle. However, on the basis that it gets resolved, recent data has pushed market pricing back towards further tightening from the Fed and he risk we are still in between mid-late cycle...
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