Richard Jones
Summary Since the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) bought JPY on 11 July, USD/JPY has declined ~5.75%, its biggest two-week drop since late last year. USD/JPY is now trading at its lowest level since early May (~152.50). Much event risk exists for USD/JPY in the next week. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) updates monetary policy […]
Richard Jones
Summary After weaker-than-expected US CPI last week, the 2-year US Treasury yield broke below the ~4.6% floor in place since early April. The yield remains below this level, having touched ~4.4% this week. Similarly, the UK 2-year yield has traded lower over the past couple months. The yield gained momentum over the past week, printing […]
Richard Jones
Summary Since late March/early April, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded in a ~4.6%/~5% range (currently 4.62%). We have preferred a buy-on-price-dips strategy since early April. A culmination of factors – US data surprises likely to become more positive, sticky inflation, and stretched technicals – means further short-end yield declines will be difficult. Market […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/CHF has retraced all the down move following the European election results and the snap French election call, both on 9 June. The pair dropped almost 2% between the close of business 7 June and close of business on 18 June. EUR/CHF rallied modestly after the SNB rate cut on 20 June but has […]
Julius Probst, PhD
Summary JPY has plummeted over the last two years despite Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention. But fears of a Japanese currency and debt crisis are overblown: the BoJ owns about half the outstanding JGBs, while foreigners own only a fraction of Japanese debt. Japan has also one of the largest global net asset positions; a […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY has printed a 30+ year high this week, surpassing the previous intraday high above 160 seen on 29 April. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened in the FX markets that day, buying JPY. This shunted USD/JPY down to an intraday low just below 152 in the following days. Market Implications We expect profit-taking […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/CHF is down ~2.8% in June, poised for its biggest monthly drop year-to-date (YTD). The SNB, broadly consistent with market expectations, cut its policy rate 25bps to 1.25% yesterday. CHF strength this month has been driven largely by political uncertainty in France, where President Emmanuel Macron announced snap parliamentary elections. This political uncertainty is […]
Richard Jones
Summary The 2-year UK gilt yield has fallen over 30bps from last month’s peak. This followed the dovish policy update from the Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last month, voting 7-2 in favour of holding rates. Two dissenters (including Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden) called for an immediate cut. The BoE updates policy […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY is trading very near the middle of the range seen since the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened in the FX market in late April. Over this period, the US 2-year yield is currently near the bottom of the prevailing ~4.7%/~5.0 range. Tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be key for determining […]
Richard Jones
Summary Comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Jordan on inflation and the Swiss franc (CHF) have driven the biggest one-day decline in EUR/CHF since October. The pair is now poised for its worst week of 2024. The franc also found support from the much stronger-than-expected Q1 Swiss GDP data. Market Implications We stand aside […]
Richard Jones
Summary One of the best performing G10 FX trades in 2024 has been buying dips in EUR/CHF. After the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a rate cut in March, attention now turns to next month’s SNB policy update, with Swiss inflation back at the SNB’s target. Markets will closely watch a speech from […]
Richard Jones
Summary An in-line US CPI reading and weaker-than-expected retail sales print drove US short-end yields and USD lower on the week. The US 2-year yield is poised for its second lower weekly close in three weeks, while the USD index (DXY) is set to close lower for the third week in four. USD/JPY traded lower […]
Richard Jones
Summary The Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged yesterday but shifted towards a cut as early as next month. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 in favour of the hold, with two dissenters (including Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden) calling for an immediate cut. Governor Andrew Bailey was notably dovish on market pricing in […]
Viresh Kanabar
Key Events G10 In the US, our focus will be on the consumer confidence survey: Mich. Consumer confidence (Friday): Consensus expects no change. We agree based on inflation stickiness (the survey tends to reflect HH inflation perceptions). We expect little change in short- and long-term inflation expectations, with the latter stable but higher than pre-pandemic. […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY briefly printed above 160 on 29 April, a public holiday in Japan, before quickly falling back below 155. Money market data suggested the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) bought about 5.5tn yen that day. A second bout of intervention, following the Fed policy update on Wednesday, saw the MoF buy 3.5tn yen, leading […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Fed signaled less confidence on disinflation but did not change its policy outlook. The Fed still believes there may be further supply side gains to come and will not necessarily attempt to cap strong growth. The central bank is likely to react more slowly to positive or negative inflation changes than to broad-based, […]
John Tierney
Summary This earnings season is a lot about messaging. Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) all beat expectations and promised AI spending. However, META collapsed for saying it will be a while before realizing a return on its investment. There are signs industrial companies are finally running down inventories and will have to […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary The Fed is likely to maintain interest rates this week, emphasizing caution on inflation targets and readiness to hike if necessary. We get April’s preliminary inflation in the Eurozone. Our model predicts downside in headline and core vs market expectations. The rest of G10 sees ANZ Business Survey and labour market data, Canada GDP […]
Richard Jones
Summary Long EUR/CHF was one of our strongest conviction trades in Q1 2024. The pair topped out earlier this month, but pullbacks have been shallow and short-lived. We think the Swiss National Bank could sell CHF during its easing cycle, while the BEER valuation for EUR/CHF sees the pair as 8.5% undervalued. Both factors would […]
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