Viresh Kanabar
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Viresh Kanabar
US gasoline inventories remain dangerously low at 218mn barrels. That is 6% lower than the five-year average of 233mn and the lowest during this time of year since 2014.
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 0.5% in April amid economic uncertainty around the US debt ceiling, along with recalibrated interest rate hikes and recession probabilities.
Viresh Kanabar
Estimates for 2023 demand growth continue to get revised higher. We find that a supply deficit remains the most likely outcome in H2, supporting our bullish view.
Jon Caplis
PivotalPath examines the performance of hedge fund indices under different inflation regimes.
Viresh Kanabar
European gas storage at 62% is at its highest level ever for May, excluding the Covid period. This reduces the risk of winter gas spikes. Despite recent weak China growth data, trend oil demand remains high.
Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Viresh Kanabar
The oil price has fallen sharply over the last week and is outside our forecasted range of $75-85 on Brent. With fundamentals remaining firm, we see the recent dip in oil below our expected range as an opportunity. We therefore turn from neutral to bullish.
Viresh Kanabar
The market now has increased certainty around China’s recovery and Russian oil supply. We lay out four scenarios for oil – continued range, jump in industrial demand...
Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned -0.8% in March amid banking failures, concerns of financial contagion risks and historic shifts in interest rates. The S&P 500 Index rose 3.7% and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 had mixed performance: +6.7% and -5.0%, respectively.
Viresh Kanabar
Brent moves further into backwardation, signalling increased tightness in the physical market. The EIA’s updated forecasts show that the market could be undersupplied in the second half of this year as US growth forecasts are revised higher.
Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Viresh Kanabar
OPEC+ announced further cuts in oil production of 1.2mn b/d from May until the end of the year. We see limited impact on actual supply as OPEC+ is already underproducing relative to their existing quota.
Jon Caplis
Given the recent extreme moves in US Treasury yields, the team at PivotalPath analyzed managed futures funds and their exposure to Treasuries to help understand and put into context potential implications.
Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Josh Young
Small-cap oil and gas equities are trading at a discount compared to large-cap peers. Share price underperformance and rapid fundamental improvement have rendered valuations more compelling.
Bilal Hafeez
In 2022, we outlined our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio, which meant constantly overweighting cash above all else.
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 0.1% in February amid declining equity markets. The S&P 500 declined 2.4% and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 fell -1.1% and -1.8%, respectively. The whipsaw and volatility continues from 2022 as the S&P 500 and most other major markets were negative after rallying in January.
At Macro Hive, we offer cutting-edge insights into commodity investing to keep you ahead of the market. Our commodity investment analysis primarily covers energy, metals, and food. Specifically, we research oil, gold, natural gas, iron ore, copper, wheat and other foods, agricultural products and related indices such as the Baltic Dry Index.
The commodities market can be an important way to diversify your portfolio beyond traditional securities. However, commodities can be risky as supply and demand can fluctuate significantly according to uncertainties that are hard or impossible to predict (such as weather, disease, geopolitics, and natural disasters).
Though once largely limited to professional investors, commodity markets today are more accessible. There are many ways to invest in commodity markets including futures contracts and options. There are also a wide variety of commodity stocks, and you can access some of the best commodity stocks via exchange-traded funds. A commodity stock ETF offers exposure to macro commodity market trends while minimizing the risk associated with individual company fundamentals.
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