Monetary Policy & Inflationsee more…

  1. FOMC Preview: Doves to Take the Reins?

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Since the April FOMC, there has been no progress on disinflation and no evidence of a macro impact of a credit crunch, yet the Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to stay on hold next week.

  2. ECB Monitor: Dovish Mood Could Persist in Near Term

    Henry Occleston

    ECB hawkishness has been pared lately, despite the main voices continuing to reject that underlying inflation is falling.

  3. Bilal Hafeez on Aljazeera TV: Why Is the Debt Ceiling So Contentious in the US?

    Macro Hive

    Macro Hive Founder and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez joined Aljazeera TV on June 3rd 2023 to discuss the US debt ceiling deal. Bilal Hafeez discusses his view on the agreed bill to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt limit, after a tough political battle. But, neither Republicans nor Democrats got all they wanted.

  1. Recession Probability Hits 90% Again

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    May nonfarm payrolls (NFP) supported both hawks and doves. The May NFP release (339,000 vs 195,000 expected) showed a combination of high employment growth, low unemployment, and no nominal wage acceleration.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Is US Consumer Credit Slowing?

    Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar

    Euro area inflation surprised to the downside last Thursday (1 June). The flash estimate for CPI came in at 6.1% YoY versus 6.3% expected, with core also surprising to the downside at 5.3% versus 5.5% expected. In response, yields across the eurozone dropped, with German 2Y Schatz falling by almost 14bps on the week (Chart 3).

  3. NFP Review: Strong Payrolls, But No Wage Acceleration

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Once again, the NFP release showed a combination of high employment growth, low unemployment, and no nominal wage acceleration.

Week Ahead: Why the Fed Will Not Crash Risk Markets

Macro Hive

Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrewand Dominique reflect on the US debt ceiling deal. What's next for the markets and what are the Fed's plans for the market now? Should investors be looking at market liquidity more closely and what's on for the week ahead!

Crypto Index Tracker: Crypto Markets Tick Higher

Dalvir Mandara

Crypto markets have trickled higher over the past week with markets failing to price a June FOMC hike despite a debt ceiling resolution and monstrous NFP outturn.

  1. Market Wrong to Fear Equity Selloff on TGA Increase

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    The US Treasury plans to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) by $500bn over the next four weeks, which would cause large money market volatility and is therefore likely to be revised down.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Could AI Manifest a New Bull Market?

    Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar

    NVDIA (NVDA) stole the show last week, surging 24.6% after providing better-than-expected guidance on the impact of AI on its revenues. Meanwhile, the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose by almost 11%. The impact on NVDA’s bottom line is material.

  3. Debt Ceiling Tracker: A Good Deal for the White House, Less So for the Fed

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    The deal agreed over the weekend leaves the Democrats well positioned for the 2024 elections but does little to stabilize the economy.

Week Ahead: Still No Deal, but Should We Even Care?

Macro Hive

Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew meets with Dominique to discuss the market landscape and the latest developments regarding the US debt ceiling.

Bloomberg TV Interview: US Inflation, Debt Ceiling Crisis, the Potential for a Fed Hike in June

Macro Hive

Macro Hive Senior Researcher Dominique Dwor-Frecaut appears on Bloomberg TB, 26 May 2023, to discuss US inflation, the potential for a Fed hike in June, the impact of the debt ceiling crisis, and whether the US will default.

  1. Crypto Index Tracker: Turbulent Times for Crypto

    Dalvir Mandara

    Crypto markets have tracked lower this week as investors digested the potential of a US debt default as well as comments from the latest FOMC minutes.

  2. A Big Beat for UK Inflation

    Henry Occleston

    UK YoY headline inflation is back into single figures (+8.7%), but core (6.8%) and services  inflation (+6.9%) provided a strong offsetting hawkish surprise.

  3. Treasury, Fed Will Not Let X-Date Lead to Default

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    As long as the US stays current on its debt service payments, hitting the X-date will not lead to default. Past Federal Reserve (Fed) transcripts and Congressional inquiries show that in previous debt ceiling standoffs, the Treasury was planning to prioritize debt service payments. It is likely to do so this time around.

Debt Ceiling Tracker: Stalemate

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut and Mustafa Chowdhury

On 18 May, the House Freedom Caucus (about 40-50 GOP lawmakers) publicly committed to making no concessions on the debt ceiling bill voted in April. 

Recession Probability Remains Elevated After Fed Comments

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

Last week saw mixed messages from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Market pricing of a June hike increased throughout last week, largely based on Fed speeches. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said ‘the data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting.

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