Monetary Policy & Inflationsee more…

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Is the ECB Done? Don’t Be So Sure 

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Dominique nailed it – the Fed finally acknowledged the US economy’s strength. The Fed stayed on hold, kept an extra 2023 hike, reduced the number of 2024 cuts from four to two, and kept the inflation trajectory unchanged but upgraded the growth trajectory.

  2. How Much of Your Portfolio Should You Allocate to Crypto?

    Dalvir Mandara

    We investigate what impact minor allocations (1% to 5%) of crypto in a portfolio of well-diversified assets have on the overall portfolio performance. 

  3. Week Ahead: GDP Revisions to Support the Hawks, Watch Out!

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, including the Fed rate decision and the week's data prints and should we be worried about a US government shut down?

  1. FOMC Review – Fed to Lift Terminal Rate if Disinflation Disappoints

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Even though Chair Powell moved the markets more than I expected, markets continue to underprice the 2023 and 2024 FFR.

  2. Et Tu, SNB?

    John Floyd, Richard Jones

    The upcoming Swiss National Bank (SNB) monetary policy meeting provides an ideal vantage point to consider future Swiss monetary policy as driven by both domestic and global influences and provides significant trading opportunities.

  3. BoE Preview: A Final Hike?

    Henry Occleston

    We expect the BoE will hike by 25bp to 5.5% and signal that they are ready to pause thereafter. Recent data and the tone of policymakers have set the groundworks for such an outturn. 

Recession Probability Remains Elevated After Inflation Data

Dalvir Mandara, Bilal Hafeez

US treasury yields rose last week as markets digested the latest inflation data. Notably, August CPI (headline: +3.7% YoY vs +3.6% consensus) accelerated above expectations. Core goods prices (excluding used cars) rose MoM, shelter inflation slowed but remained above levels consistent with the Fed’s target, and core services excluding housing inflation accelerated.

Markets to Watch This Week – Get Ready for the BoE’s Final Hike

Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

ECB pulled off a dovish hike, but we see more to come. The ECB hiked by 25bps as Henry had expected for some time. They also increased their interest rate forecasts for this year and next, driven by higher energy prices.

  1. Week Ahead: The Fed may Surprise, Hawkish…

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, from market moves, data prints, US politics and more planned strikes and what that means for wage inflation. Finally, what should investors expect from the Fed.

  2. FOMC Preview – Emerging Inflation Risks

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    I expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold and the SEP to show: One more 2023 hike. Two 2024 cuts instead of four in the June SEP. Unchanged inflation trajectory. 

  3. Charts of the Week: Returning US Inflation, Bullish USD, UK Unemployment Uptick

    Matthew Tibble

    Small businesses may be about to start reversing disinflation. UK unemployment is rising much faster than the BoE expected.

ECB Preview: More Hikes Needed – Now Makes Sense

Henry Occleston

The ECB’s decision to hike is based on three factors: Whether core inflation (and importantly wage-intensive services inflation) is trending towards target.

Markets to Watch This Week: A Cautious Hike for the ECB?

Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

The quarterly Beige Book was released last week, continuing to point to strong growth, falling inflation and a loosening labour market. Here are our highlights on each point:

  1. Recession Probability Inches Closer to 90%

    Dalvir Mandara, Bilal Hafeez

    US treasury yields rose last week after multiple economic indicators signalled persistent inflationary pressures, a tight labour market, and strong growth.

  2. Week Ahead: Even the Doves Are Starting to Fly

    Macro Hive

    Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, look to the data points for the coming week and we have an exciting announcement about Macro Hive!

  3. Household Savings to Remain Low

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    ‘Excess savings’ have been fully spent, and a low savings rate is driving consumption resiliency. This low savings rate reflects full employment, rising wealth, and a recovery in consumer debt – these are unlikely to change anytime soon.

Charts of the Week: US Trade Flows, Stalling Earnings, Rising Unemployment

Matthew Tibble

The US is moving away from China imports. SPX and NDX earnings growth stalls – a warning for equities. US unemployment rises on increased participation, especially from young workers.

Recession Probability Stays Elevated After August Payrolls

Dalvir Mandara, Bilal Hafeez

US treasury yields rose on Friday after a mixed jobs report for August. US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) were roughly in line with expectations, unemployment rose 30bp due to an increase in participation, and nominal wage growth slowed MoM but was roughly unchanged YoY.

View all articles in "Monetary Policy & Inflation"…

Subscribe to Macro Hive

Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…


Already have an account?…

Log in…

Get the weekly newsletter 16,000+ finance pros read for 'must-have' trade ideas.

    Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now