Dalvir Mandara
It has been a volatile week for crypto markets following back-to-back SEC litigations against Binance and Coinbase – two of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world by trading volume.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Since the April FOMC, there has been no progress on disinflation and no evidence of a macro impact of a credit crunch, yet the Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to stay on hold next week.
Henry Occleston
ECB hawkishness has been pared lately, despite the main voices continuing to reject that underlying inflation is falling.
Macro Hive
Macro Hive Founder and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez joined Aljazeera TV on June 3rd 2023 to discuss the US debt ceiling deal. Bilal Hafeez discusses his view on the agreed bill to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt limit, after a tough political battle. But, neither Republicans nor Democrats got all they wanted.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
May nonfarm payrolls (NFP) supported both hawks and doves. The May NFP release (339,000 vs 195,000 expected) showed a combination of high employment growth, low unemployment, and no nominal wage acceleration.
Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar
Euro area inflation surprised to the downside last Thursday (1 June). The flash estimate for CPI came in at 6.1% YoY versus 6.3% expected, with core also surprising to the downside at 5.3% versus 5.5% expected. In response, yields across the eurozone dropped, with German 2Y Schatz falling by almost 14bps on the week (Chart 3).
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Once again, the NFP release showed a combination of high employment growth, low unemployment, and no nominal wage acceleration.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrewand Dominique reflect on the US debt ceiling deal. What's next for the markets and what are the Fed's plans for the market now? Should investors be looking at market liquidity more closely and what's on for the week ahead!
Dalvir Mandara
Crypto markets have trickled higher over the past week with markets failing to price a June FOMC hike despite a debt ceiling resolution and monstrous NFP outturn.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The US Treasury plans to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) by $500bn over the next four weeks, which would cause large money market volatility and is therefore likely to be revised down.
Bilal Hafeez and Viresh Kanabar
NVDIA (NVDA) stole the show last week, surging 24.6% after providing better-than-expected guidance on the impact of AI on its revenues. Meanwhile, the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose by almost 11%. The impact on NVDA’s bottom line is material.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The deal agreed over the weekend leaves the Democrats well positioned for the 2024 elections but does little to stabilize the economy.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew meets with Dominique to discuss the market landscape and the latest developments regarding the US debt ceiling.
Macro Hive
Macro Hive Senior Researcher Dominique Dwor-Frecaut appears on Bloomberg TB, 26 May 2023, to discuss US inflation, the potential for a Fed hike in June, the impact of the debt ceiling crisis, and whether the US will default.
Dalvir Mandara
Crypto markets have tracked lower this week as investors digested the potential of a US debt default as well as comments from the latest FOMC minutes.
Henry Occleston
UK YoY headline inflation is back into single figures (+8.7%), but core (6.8%) and services inflation (+6.9%) provided a strong offsetting hawkish surprise.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
As long as the US stays current on its debt service payments, hitting the X-date will not lead to default. Past Federal Reserve (Fed) transcripts and Congressional inquiries show that in previous debt ceiling standoffs, the Treasury was planning to prioritize debt service payments. It is likely to do so this time around.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut and Mustafa Chowdhury
On 18 May, the House Freedom Caucus (about 40-50 GOP lawmakers) publicly committed to making no concessions on the debt ceiling bill voted in April.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw mixed messages from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Market pricing of a June hike increased throughout last week, largely based on Fed speeches. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said ‘the data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting.
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