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  1. Key Events: Will the Fed Keep Its Easing Bias?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus is 0.3% MoM for core, unchanged from April. To gain confidence disinflation will restart soon, the Fed needs a lower trend in OER and supercore inflation, with lower median price and trimmed mean inflation (better indicators of trend than core). I […]

  2. Momentum Models Slip as FX and Rates Underperform Equities

    Richard Jones

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.4% over the past week, with FX and rates underperforming equities. Stocks were +0.9% WoW, FX was -0.2% WoW and fixed income was -1.5% WoW. FX momentum models […]

  3. Ep. 218: Gordon Hanson on US-China Trade War, Immigration and US Elections

    Bilal Hafeez

    Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). He is also chair of the Social and Urban Policy Area at HKS, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

  1. Momentum Models Track Sideways as Equities Underperform FX and Rates

    Richard Jones

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity underperformance the big drag on the aggregate result. Stocks were -1.2% WoW, FX was +0.1% WoW and fixed income was +0.5% WoW. […]

  2. Momentum Models Slip as Equity Models Underperform FX and Rates

    Richard Jones

    Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with equity underperformance the big drag on the aggregate result. Equities were -0.6% WoW, FX was +0.1% WoW and fixed income was flat. FX momentum models are the best-performing over a three-month timeframe (+1.0%). Market Implications Momentum models flipped from bullish EUR/USD to bearish – we […]

  3. Key Events: Is the Fed Worried About Housing?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the headline events are: S&P PMIs – Thursday. Consensus sees sideways movement. This is possible but matters little for the big economic picture as PMIS have decoupled from GDP. Our event monitor reveals how to trade a surprise. Durable goods orders – Friday. Consensus on capital goods orders is […]

Momentum Models Slip as Fixed Income and FX Underperform Equities

Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with a positive performance in equities unable to offset negative FX and fixed income returns. Equities were +0.9% WoW, FX was -0.4% WoW […]

Momentum Models Flat as Equities Outperform Fixed Income and FX

Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with a positive performance in equities outweighing flat FX returns and negative fixed income returns. Equities were +0.9% WoW, FX was flat WoW and […]

  1. Markets to Watch: Will a Dovish BoE Open the Way to Cuts?

    Viresh Kanabar

    Key Events G10 In the US, our focus will be on the consumer confidence survey: Mich. Consumer confidence (Friday): Consensus expects no change. We agree based on inflation stickiness (the survey tends to reflect HH inflation perceptions). We expect little change in short- and long-term inflation expectations, with the latter stable but higher than pre-pandemic. […]

  2. NFP Review: Negative Surprise Will Not Add to Fed Confidence

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary April NFPs were lower than expected but remained above the 2019 average. Labour supply increased on the back of unchanged participation and US-born workers. The labour market rebalanced further: the unemployment rate increased, and wage growth slowed; however, growth in the real wage bill, a proxy for household income, accelerated further. These data are […]

  3. Momentum Models Slip as Fixed Income and FX Underperform

    Richard Jones

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.3% over the past week, with negative performances in fixed income and FX outweighing positive equity returns. Bonds were -0.7% WoW and FX -0.2% WoW, versus a +0.2 […]

Markets to Watch: A Hawkish Twist to the FOMC?

Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

Summary The Fed is likely to maintain interest rates this week, emphasizing caution on inflation targets and readiness to hike if necessary. We get April’s preliminary inflation in the Eurozone. Our model predicts downside in headline and core vs market expectations. The rest of G10 sees ANZ Business Survey and labour market data, Canada GDP […]

Momentum Models Gain as Equities and Fixed Income Outpace FX

Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.2% over the past week, with positive performances in fixed income and equites countering negative FX returns. Equities and bonds were both up 0.5% WoW, while FX returns […]

  1. Ep. 212: Nick Baltas on Mastering Systematic Strategies from Alpha to AI

    Bilal Hafeez

    Nick Baltas is a managing director and head of R&D, cross-asset delta-one and commodity systematic trading strategies at Goldman Sachs. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs in 2017, Nick was an executive director in the quantitative research unit of UBS.

  2. Momentum Models Gain as FX and Fixed Income Outperform Equities

    Richard Jones

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.1% over the past week, with positive performances in fixed income and FX countering negative equity returns. Equities were down 1.9% WoW, while bonds were up 0.6%, and […]

  3. Markets to Watch: Oil and Gold to Remain Bid as Geopolitics Dominates

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Summary In the US, this week will be all about how Fed speakers react to the hot inflation print. We think September is now the earliest they can cut rates. The UK and Europe will get inflation figures this week. For both the BoE and ECB, we expect June remains the most likely time for […]

Ep. 211: John Coates on How a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything

Bilal Hafeez

John Coates is the Deputy Dean of Harvard Law School. He has served at the Securities and Exchange Commission, and was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, specializing in financial institutions.

Momentum Models Gain as USD Bullishness and Fixed Income Bearishness Intensify

Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.4% over the past week, with positive performances in fixed income and FX outweighing negative equity returns. Equities were down 0.7% WoW, while bonds were up 1%, and […]

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