Economics & Growthsee more…

  1. Why Aging Populations Are Good for Workers

    Julius Probst, PhD

    Summary Worker shortages are hitting labour markets in advanced economies hard. Without a massive inflow of foreign workers, countries like Germany will soon see their workforce shrink. After several decades of declining bargaining power and stagnating wages, these trends might now finally reverse as adverse demographics are increasingly leading to labour scarcity. The Decade-Long Decline […]

  2. Ep. 191: Greg Lippmann on The Big Short, Latest US Housing View, and Finding Alpha in Structured Products

    Bilal Hafeez

    Greg Lippmann is the Managing Founding Partner and the Chief Investment Officer of the $9.8bn asset management firm, LibreMax.

  3. Charts of the Week: Time to Buy Bonds?

    Matthew Tibble

    Summary The peak of the Fed hiking cycle has historically been a good time to buy bonds, but is that true today? A shift in consumer behaviour towards specific durable goods may reflect long-term lifestyle changes in the post-pandemic world. Despite headline declines, the US still has an inflation problem – core and services are […]

  1. Ep. 190: Dr Douglas Greenig on Trend-Following, the End of Pax-Americana, and Why He ls Long Volatility

    Bilal Hafeez

    Dr Douglas Greenig is the CEO, CIO, and founder of Florin Court Capital, a systematic, trend-following asset manager uniquely broad in its focus on over 500 markets.

  2. Ep. 189: Marc Goldwein on the Unprecedented US Budget Problem and How to Fix It

    Bilal Hafeez

    Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, where he guides and conducts research on a wide array of topics related to fiscal policy and the federal budget.

  3. China Growth Tracker: Divergence

    Mirza Baig, Liang Ding

    Summary Mobility indicators continue to improve, but other indicators like port activity and the YiCai economy index are starting to flatline. Existing home prices are stabilizing in Tier 1 and 2 cities, but transactions fell back this week. Our Growth Tracker is starting to show mixed trends under the hood. While mobility-based indicators continued to […]

No Sign of October Air Pocket

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary In late September, I was concerned that the US economy could be about to hit an air pocket. In reality, there were limited headwinds to the US economy in October as a government shutdown did not happen, tax payments increased only moderately, and student debt service resumed but likely with limited compliance. High frequency […]

Charts of the Week: Fed to Turn More Hawkish, BoE More Dovish?

Matthew Tibble

Summary Strikes may be behind Friday’s low US payroll data, suggesting the Fed may discount the print and keep a December hike in play. The BoE may be overestimating future wage growth due to reliance on problematic ONS data. We position for a more dovish outlook. Japan’s Ministry of Finance typically succeeds in supporting the […]

  1. China Growth Tracker: Property Transactions Improve

    Mirza Baig

    Summary Property transaction volumes picked up sharply last week in Tier 1 & 2 cities. Our sample data on prices suggests prices in those cities firmed as well. The drop in October PMIs was at odds with our growth tracker, which broadly suggests activity is stable or improving gradually. The overall growth tracker remains supported […]

  2. Ep. 188: Macro Hive Webinar: (The Weekly Call Recorded 1 November 2023)

    Bilal Hafeez

    This week we have a special podcast episode for you! Listen to the Macro Hive Pro Markets Webinar and hear the key views of our leading researchers on their respective markets.

  3. Ep. 187: Boris Vladimirov on Macro Volatility, US Yields, and Recession Risks

    Bilal Hafeez

    Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs.

China Growth Tracker: Activity Recovery Extends

Mirza Baig, Liang Ding

High frequency activity-based indicators continue to tick higher, though the improvement is not broad-based. In aggregate, our tracker suggests the official composite PMI next week will print around 53.0.

Ep. 186: Daniel Rock on How AI Will Reshape Economies 

Bilal Hafeez

Professor Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence.

  1. China Growth Tracker: Tier 1 Property Prices Improve Following New Policies

    Mirza Baig, Liang Ding

    Property prices improved in Tier 1 cities but not in Tier 2 and 3 cities following the implementation of new policies.

  2. Charts of the Week – Seasonals Support Equities, Mispriced BoE Cuts, and Gold Spikes

    Matthew Tibble

    US equities exhibit strong seasonal patterns. Q4 typically sees stocks rally, especially over October and November.

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: US Inflation was Hot, Will UK Follow?

    Viresh Kanabar

    US inflation came in hot, hot, hot! While US core CPI aligned with expectations, headline at 3.7% exceeded them.

China Growth Tracker: Holiday Spending Improves, But Property Slump Persists

Mirza Baig, Liang Ding

Holiday travel and spending improved sequentially but remains below the pre-Covid level. Mobility indicators suggest activity remained strong post-holiday, while property indicators suggest the slump has persisted.  

Charts of the Week – No Haven USD Boost, Outlier NFP, Robust Gas Demand

Matthew Tibble

Summary Investors are in risk aversion mode due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, but the dollar may not benefit. September’s bumper NFP print is likely an outlier. CHF bearishness is building among real money and hedge funds. Despite suggestions otherwise, US and EU gasoline demand remains robust. Is Risk Aversion Good for the Dollar? It’s Complicated… […]

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