Economics & Growthsee more…

  1. Bumblebee’s Take on World Cup Economics

    Bumblebee

    The FIFA World Cup is an international soccer tournament held every four years. It is the most widely viewed sporting event in the world...

  2. Week Ahead: Is it Time to Fade the Rally?

    Macro Hive

    In our latest Week Ahead video, Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss last week’s market reaction to inflation data...

  3. Week Ahead: US CPI Next Up – What Should We Expect?

    Macro Hive

    In our latest Week Ahead video update, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut shares a few thoughts on how we are getting closer and closer to her call on 8% US terminal rates...

  1. Ep. 137: Igor Yelnik on How to Trade Macro Differently

    Bilal Hafeez

    Igor founded Alphidence Capital in 2020 and holds the positions of CEO and CIO. The fund is unusual in that it focuses on systematic macro investing.

  2. Inflation and Its Troubled History

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A new NBER working paper documents the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations and other key macroeconomic variables after inflation surges.

  3. Bloomberg TV Interview: What to Expect From the Fed Meeting

    Bilal Hafeez

    Pleased to have featured on Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss my views on what to expect from the upcoming Fed meeting...

Recession Probability Rises on PCE Data

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

The probability of a recession within the next twelve months jumped near 80% after Friday’s PCE data (+6.2%) showed inflation remained high and persistent.

Week Ahead: Why the Fed will Continue Their Message of More 75bp Hikes to Come

Macro Hive

In our latest Week Ahead video update, Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss the market’s reaction from the data published in the past week...

  1. Ep. 136: Nouriel Roubini on World War 3 Starting, Debt Crisis and Robot Takeover

    Bilal Hafeez

    Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business (New York University).

  2. What the 2022 Nobel Winners Taught Us

    Julius Probst, PhD

    The winners of the 2022 Nobel in economics are former Fed chair and Princeton economist Ben Bernanke and the two academics Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig.

  3. Recession Probability Dips on Prospect of Easing Rate Hikes

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    The recession probability drops to 73% (previously 80%) as the hope for a Federal Reserve pivot is backed by a Nick Timiraos Wall Street Journal article.

Hotter Than Expected Inflation Sends Recession Probabilities Back to 80%

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

The recession probability hit 80% again after hotter-than-expected inflation data for September.

Week Ahead: Watch Out for Housing Data

Macro Hive

In our latest Week Ahead video, Andrew and Dominique discuss the key data from last week and the market’s rather unpredictable market reaction...

  1. Bloomberg TV Interview: Impacts of UK Government Policy on Markets

    Bilal Hafeez

    Yesterday I shared my thoughts on the impact of the recent UK government policy announcements on pension funds, what a change of political leadership in the UK...

  2. Supply Chains Ease, Leaving a Nasty Hangover

    John Tierney

    Global supply chains have finally recovered in recent months to near normal levels. Yet many companies are finding their strategies to cope with shortages have...

  3. Strong Labour Data Keeps Recession Probability High

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    The probability of a recession in the US in the next 12 months remains high at 78% after Friday's strong labour market data dashed hopes of a Fed pivot.

Week Ahead: Upcoming CPI – Watch Our For More Fireworks

Macro Hive

In our latest Week Ahead update, Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut share their thoughts on last week’s data...

Creative Destruction and the Theory of Economic Development

Julius Probst, PhD

Coined by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, ‘creative destruction’ the process of industrial mutation that destroys old economic structures and replaces them with new ones.

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