Bilal Hafeez
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key data event: NFP – Friday. The consensus is for 175k, which would add to Fed confidence that the economy is doing well and remove concern about the employment mandate. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: UK Chancellor’s statement – Monday. […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.5% over the past week, with equity models down 2.1% WoW, FX models down 0.1% WoW, and rates models up 0.1% WoW. All momentum models are down over […]
Bilal Hafeez
Dr. Pippa Malmgren is an economist who makes sense of the world economy by writing books, founding tech businesses, advising policymakers around the world and through public speaking and teaching.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.4% over the past week, with equity models down 0.8% WoW, FX models down 0.4% WoW, and rates models flat. Momentum models are down in aggregate over a […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.1% over the past week, with equity models up 1.2% WoW, rates down 0.1% WoW, and FX down 0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over a […]
Bilal Hafeez
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm's New York office. Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG.
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the most important data is: CPI – Thursday. Consensus expects core MoM CPI to remain at 0.2%. But as always, the services-good breakdown will be key to the inflation outlook. PPI – Friday. Together with the CPI, the PPI will give an estimate of PCE (the more important inflation […]
Bilal Hafeez
Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm.
Bilal Hafeez
Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The current account balance will likely weaken further due to: A growing budget deficit and accelerating corporate investment. Strong US growth and dollar. A weaker current account deficit is sustainable but leaves the US exposed to a reversal of the bond flows currently funding it. Market Implications A wider current account reflects growing resource […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Recently higher jobless claims do not announce a recession as: They reflect residual seasonality. The insured unemployment rate has remained flat. Neither the distribution of unemployment spells nor flows into unemployment are consistent with a recession. Market Implications I continue to expect no cut in 2024 against 1.9 cuts currently priced in. Higher Claims […]
Bilal Hafeez
Vasileios is Head of Europe Economics and Strategy at Aviva Investors – a £226bn global asset management firm. Based in London, he is responsible for monitoring and analysing macroeconomic developments and markets as well as formulating major asset class views, leading research and strategy in the UK and Europe.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with equity models down 0.1% WoW, rates down 0.4% WoW, and FX unchanged WoW. FX momentum models are the best-performing over a three-month […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.2% over the past week, with equity models outperforming FX and rates. Stocks were +0.5% WoW, FX was +0.1% WoW, and fixed income was -0.1% WoW. FX momentum […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus is 0.3% MoM for core, unchanged from April. To gain confidence disinflation will restart soon, the Fed needs a lower trend in OER and supercore inflation, with lower median price and trimmed mean inflation (better indicators of trend than core). I […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.4% over the past week, with FX and rates underperforming equities. Stocks were +0.9% WoW, FX was -0.2% WoW and fixed income was -1.5% WoW. FX momentum models […]
Bilal Hafeez
Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). He is also chair of the Social and Urban Policy Area at HKS, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity underperformance the big drag on the aggregate result. Stocks were -1.2% WoW, FX was +0.1% WoW and fixed income was +0.5% WoW. […]
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