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  1. Macro Hive Predicts England to Win the World Cup

    Bilal Hafeez

    Surely, Brazil will win the 2022 World Cup. Betting markets have them as favourites, followed by Argentina. Brazil has won the World Cup...

  2. The Hive World Cup Survey

    Richard Jones and Sam van de Schootbrugge

    To give a taste of how each team (and their country) will fare, we’ve asked our network for their views. We’ve asked people the following questions...

  3. BoE Preview: A Strong Tightening Before the Pivot?

    Henry Occleston

    The Bank of England meets on 3 November to set its policy rate. We see a high likelihood of another 75bp hike to quash the medium-term effect of the recent consumer support, with a tail risk of 100bp.

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Who Will Flinch First, BoE or Fed

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked the deposit facility rate to 1.5% (+75bp) on 27 October, as expected. However, the market has taken President Christine Lagarde’s comments...

  2. Bloomberg TV Interview: What to Expect From the Fed Meeting

    Bilal Hafeez

    Pleased to have featured on Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss my views on what to expect from the upcoming Fed meeting...

  3. Bank of England to Rebuff Hawkish Market Pricing

    Henry Occleston

    The BoE may still undergo a nuanced dovish pivot in November despite the recent hawkish shift among MPC members.

Peak UK Optimism

Bilal Hafeez

Everyone, including investors, can project their most positive outcomes onto the new UK administration. But reality will hit soon, and hard.

The UK Has a Pension Crisis Not a Fiscal Crisis

Bilal Hafeez

The first rule of crisis management is to know what crisis you are managing. Politicians and the media appear to be framing the recent...

  1. Bloomberg TV Interview: Impacts of UK Government Policy on Markets

    Bilal Hafeez

    Yesterday I shared my thoughts on the impact of the recent UK government policy announcements on pension funds, what a change of political leadership in the UK...

  2. Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) and the UK Pension Fund Problem

    Eric Zijdenbos

    In this article, guest author Eric Zijdenbos explains the liability-driven investment (LDI) strategy behind the mess – and the risks ahead.

  3. Is the Pound Falling To Levels Seen in the 1700s?!

    Bilal Hafeez

    UK financial markets have been in turmoil since the UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’ mini-Budget. Interest rates have surged, and the pound has plunged.

Ep. 131: Howard Davies on How UK Chancellors Steer the UK In Crisis 

Bilal Hafeez

Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics...

Bloomberg TV Interview: Liz Truss’ Biggest Challenges as Next UK Prime Minister

Bilal Hafeez

Had the pleasure of featuring on Bloomberg TV just earlier to share my thoughts on Liz Truss becoming the UK’s next Prime Minister...

  1. Mortgage Rates and the Housing Market: The Big UK Squeeze

    Ben Ford

    UK house prices have soared 17.4% higher since March 2020. Markets expect interest rates to increase by at least 250bp within the next year, which should offset some of the gains.

  2. How Do Markets Price ECB and BOE Interest Rate Expectations?  

    Richard Jones

    European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) policies are in play – understanding market pricing of ECB and BOE expectations is critical.

  3. Why More BoE Hikes May Mean More Inflation

    Henry Occleston

    The UK is in trouble. This Friday, Ofgem will announce a rise in household energy bills that will likely top 80%. Annual energy bills for households are expected...

US vs UK/EU Equities: Where’s the Upside?

John Tierney

The FTSE 100 has been the surprise outperformer in 2022, leading the S&P 500, the Stoxx Europe 600 and the Stoxx Euro 50 in 2021 by more than 10 percentage points.

The Next UK PM: Focus on Fiscal

Henry Occleston

As of this morning, 11 candidates have announced their intention to run to be the next UK prime minister, with Priti Patel deciding today.

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