Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… PCE price index, pers. income, spending – Friday. Consensus seems reasonable. The Fed watches the services component of PCE. We will examine median price PCE for indication of trend and see personal savings remaining around 4%. Q2 GDP – Thursday. Consensus is 1.9% vs the Atlanta Fed’s […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the important data points: Retail sales – Tuesday. Expect 0.2% for the control group, in line with consensus. Consumption growth is slowing due to catchup in personal income tax payments. Manufacturing production – Tuesday. Consensus of –0.1% mom appears reasonable, though the data says little about the […]
Henry Occleston
Summary Recent BoE comments have leaned more hawkish. Pill’s speech was most important, though confused in tone. June labour market and inflation data will be key to understanding the underlying trend, despite policymakers insisting single prints will not change the outlook. We think wage and inflation data details suggest the BoE should cut imminently. A […]
Henry Occleston
Summary As we expected, the BoE found comfort in the May inflation outturn’s normalisation in wage-intensive services inflation momentum. Recent strength in services inflation was caveated as partly driven by areas that BoE policy will not affect (index-linked or regulated). Downside risks in inflation were mentioned (albeit with mention also of the risk that higher […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect no change in policy at the BoE’s meeting this week, with two voters likely to vote for a cut but the rest to back a pause. Tone could be dictated by the CPI print, which we expect to show inflation ticking back towards MPR forecasts. Our estimate is slightly higher than consensus […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data releases are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. We see core PCE at +0.25% MoM vs +0.30% consensus. So a downside surprise is possible from rounding down. We expect the household savings rate stays around historical lows of 3.5%. A very low rate is a […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE struck a more dovish tone, with comments suggesting they are strongly considering cutting in June if the data allows. This remains our base case. Bailey strongly indicated that they expect to need to cut more than the market is pricing, but that they will attempt to cut hawkishly (i.e. keep market pricing […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the BoE will leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. However, a more dovish inflation forecast should open the door to explicitly discussing cuts. The BoE will ultimately want their first cut to be a hawkish one, and for the market not to price too much subsequent easing – a well telegraphed […]
5 researchers
We are updating our key events report. From now on, you will receive a short document to prepare you for the week ahead. This new form focuses on a curated list of data/events, as well as key central bank meetings and market views across G10 and EM. Key Events G10 In the US, there are […]
4 researchers
Skip to: US, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away this week, Antonio Del Favero covers the key US data for the coming days. Summary No Fed speakers next week as we enter the blackout period pre-FOMC (1 May). As expected, Fed speakers reacted to the third hot inflation print, confirming ‘no rush to […]
5 researchers
Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away, this week’s US section is covered by Macro Hive strategist Antonio Del Favero. Summary Inflation is no longer consistent with a June cut. I expect that only a recession can push inflation back down to target and below. Fed speakers will give their […]
5 researchers
Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary March CPI and PPI are likely to be consistent with a June cut. Fed speakers will give their take on yet another bumper NFP. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to start cutting in June. Fed This week Chair Powell stated that ‘the recent […]
5 researchers
Note: Due to the upcoming holidays, this week’s Key Events covers an extended period, from 25 March to 5 April. Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary February core PCE to support Fed narrative. NFP to show cooling wage growth but strong employment. Market Implications I expect the Fed to start cutting […]
Henry Occleston
Summary In line with the market, I expect the BoE will leave its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% once again. There is room for a change among external voters. I expect a reduction in votes for hikes; Mann could be the sole backer. Wage and services inflation data has undershot MPR expectations of late. But […]
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. A positive rates (+0.3% WoW) outing battled poor equity (-0.4% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW) performances. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE has announced Broadbent’s replacement in Lombardelli. Unsurprisingly, the market has taken it hawkishly, but we are wary of reading too much into it. The arguments for waiting until the August MPR for the BoE’s first cut have merit. But if the data develops as we expect, they may be unable to wait […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Friday brings seasonal factor revisions to the CPI. These could impact the path of the FFR. Currently Powell seems set on no rate cut in March. Europe and the UK hear from central bank policymakers and see several key surveys updated, including the services PMIs. Elsewhere, a slew of central bank […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE kept rates unchanged at their February meeting, as expected. Also as expected, forecasts were updated to be more dovish near term, but with a higher trajectory in inflation further out. The more hawkish end-horizon forecast was supported by a reduced trajectory for unemployment growth. Governor Bailey pushed back on market pricing for […]
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