Europesee more…

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Significant Tightening Remains for ECB and Fed

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    10 Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers pushed market pricing more hawkish over the past week.

  2. The Hive World Cup Survey

    Richard Jones and Sam van de Schootbrugge

    To give a taste of how each team (and their country) will fare, we’ve asked our network for their views. We’ve asked people the following questions...

  3. Why the ECB Will Keep Hiking

    Henry Occleston

    The market was premature in pricing that the ECB was about to slow its hiking. Ahead there is good reason to expect them to lean on more tightening than priced.

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Who Will Flinch First, BoE or Fed

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked the deposit facility rate to 1.5% (+75bp) on 27 October, as expected. However, the market has taken President Christine Lagarde’s comments...

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: A New PM by the PM?

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    In the US, talk of a Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot has returned. Nick Timiraos, the unofficial outside voice of the Fed, suggested in the Wall Street Journal that a 50bp December hike...

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: Hunt Delivers U-Turn, What Next in the UK?

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    US inflation and the UK Conservatives dominated headlines last week, while China’s Party Congress also kicked off.

Markets to Watch This Week: Inflation Reigns Supreme

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

The US celebrates Columbus Day to start the week, giving markets a chance to prepare for US CPI (Thursday). Dominique expects a continuation of the upward trend in inflation.

Markets to Watch This Week: U-Turn Truss Kicks Off NFP-Headlined Week

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

The aftermath of the ‘Fiscal Event’ stole the headlines last week. Initially, GBP/USD fell to levels last seen in the 1700s, while surging interest rates sparked discussion...

  1. Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) and the UK Pension Fund Problem

    Eric Zijdenbos

    In this article, guest author Eric Zijdenbos explains the liability-driven investment (LDI) strategy behind the mess – and the risks ahead.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Will the BoE Intervene?

    Bilal Hafeez and Henry Occleston

    It was a busy week for central bank hikes, but it was the market moves on the back of the UK Chancellor’s ‘fiscal event’ that stole the show.

  3. Dr Sam Ramani on the Russia-Ukraine War, Recent Ukraine Wins and Putin’s Endgame | MHC 130

    Macro Hive

    Sam is a tutor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, and an Associate Fellow at the British defence think tank...

BoE Preview: Expect a 50bp Hike, But the Dovish Case Is Growing

Henry Occleston

We think the BoE will hike bank rate by 50bps to 2.25% on 22 September as it takes a ‘wait and see’ attitude to the effect of recent fiscal policy.

Markets to Watch This Week: A Week of Central Bank Hiking

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

US inflation is stubborn (CPI: +0.1% MoM, +8.3% YoY; Core: +0.6% MoM, +6.35 YoY). We knew it would be, and Dominique still thinks the Fed could eventually hike to 8%.

  1. The Energy Crisis: What Should Windfall Taxes Look Like?

    Matthew Harris

    Large oil and gas companies have achieved unprecedented returns in recent months. Firms such as ExxonMobil and Chevron saw profits more than treble (Chart 1).

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Inflation to Support Hawkishness… For Now

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Despite a relaxed US calendar, we had expected a busy week headlined by the European Central Bank (ECB). We got more than we had bargained for.

  3. How Markets Price SNB Rate Expectations

    Richard Jones

    Swiss National Bank (SNB) monetary policy is in play – understanding market pricing of SNB expectations is critical.

ECB Preview: Why the ECB Could Follow the Fed in Hiking 75bp

Henry Occleston

Either a 75bp or 50bp interest rate hike is possible at Thursday’s ECB policy meeting. Given the deterioration in the inflation outlook, we lean towards 75bp.

Markets to Watch This Week: Central Bank Action, Europe’s Gas Crisis

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Any quietness at the start of last week was quickly reversed into Friday. The day began supportive of risk assets after a goldilocks non-farm payrolls.

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