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  1. Momentum Models Scale Back USD/JPY Bullishness

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. A positive rates (+0.3% WoW) outing battled poor equity (-0.4% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW) performances. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over […]

  2. Markets to Watch: Watch Out For ‘More Good’ Jobs Data

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]

  3. Markets to Watch: Bonds Beware as QRA Emerges

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Summary In the US, the Fed meets on Wednesday. We expect them to hold rates steady while preparing markets for a cut in March. In the UK, the BoE will likely hold rates unchanged on Thursday, taking a more dovish profile in the near term. January CPI is the main release of the week for […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: EUR/GBP Enters the Buy Zone

    Richard Jones

    Summary Since last May, EUR/GBP has traded in a ~0.8500/~0.8800 range. This week, EUR/GBP printed its lowest levels since September, primarily catalysed by a hawkish pricing tilt in BoE expectations. We think this hawkish BoE pricing has gone too far and that ECB easing will be less aggressive than the market currently prices. Market Implications […]

  2. Markets to Watch: PCE to Push Fed Into 50bp in March?

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Summary In the US, we expect core PCE at 15bp on Friday. That would drop the figure below the Fed’s 2% target and increase ‘lowflation’ risks. Dominique still expects a 50bp Fed cut in March. The ECB should leave rates unchanged on Thursday. We see the first cut in June. In the $-bloc, the NAB […]

  3. 2024 Grey Swan: Germany Becomes Capitalist

    Thorsten Wegener

    Thorsten looks back from an imaginary future. A Problem With the Kettle… It all started ten years ago one early morning in January 2024. I had switched on my kettle, expecting a nice hot cup of tea, only to be greeted with a gentle pfff followed by utter silence and darkness. As this had happened […]

G10 FX Weekly: USD Consolidation to Continue, Be Patient Shorting GBP

Richard Jones

Summary The collapse in US yields brought the dollar with it. In previous collapses, the following month saw $-bloc outperformance and GBP underperformance. Similar instances proved neutral for the dollar. Our recent work suggested the December downside will likely come in the second half of the month. CHF is back to record highs. We think […]

2024 Grey Swan: Climate Breaks the EU

Bilal Hafeez

Summary No one expects the European Union (EU) to break up, yet there is increasing public opposition to EU climate laws. Only anti-EU far-right parties clearly oppose EU climate policies, which could force disillusioned voters to pick them in the 2024 European elections. This could set in train an EU breakup as far-right parties dismantle […]

  1. Prime Trade Ideas: Long JPY? Beware MoF Intervention!

    Viresh Kanabar

    We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content. Latest Updates FX, Rates, and Commodities: Beware MoF intervention when selling JPY […]

  2. Charts of the Week: Fed to Turn More Hawkish, BoE More Dovish?

    Matthew Tibble

    Summary Strikes may be behind Friday’s low US payroll data, suggesting the Fed may discount the print and keep a December hike in play. The BoE may be overestimating future wage growth due to reliance on problematic ONS data. We position for a more dovish outlook. Japan’s Ministry of Finance typically succeeds in supporting the […]

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: Is Credit Still Flowing in China?

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Last Week’s Highlights 10Y yields collapsed… What drove the move? Last week’s price action was dominated by the collapse in long-end yields, which fell almost 30bps (Charts 1 and 3). Several factors drove this move. On Monday, the US treasury announced it would need to borrow $76bn less than expected at $776bn in privately held […]

Ep. 188: Macro Hive Webinar: (The Weekly Call Recorded 1 November 2023)

Bilal Hafeez

This week we have a special podcast episode for you! Listen to the Macro Hive Pro Markets Webinar and hear the key views of our leading researchers on their respective markets.

G10 FX Weekly: USD/JPY Upside Remains Compelling, But Beware Intervention

Richard Jones

Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, with less than stellar survey and hard data in the Eurozone, the euro (EUR) has proven resilient in recent weeks.

  1. G10 FX Weekly: We Like EUR Higher Against GBP and SEK

    Richard Jones

    Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, with less than stellar survey and hard data in the Eurozone, the euro (EUR) has proven resilient in recent weeks.

  2. Charts of the Week: Our EUR Biases Ahead of the ECB

    Matthew Tibble

    Summary A more balanced inflation outlook means the ECB will likely hold the deposit rate at 4% this week. Our EUR/SEK short indicator remains low, meaning it is not time to short the pair. Passing Beige Book peak pessimism suggests being long Antipodean vs major European FX. High-yielding cash has created a high bar for […]

  3. ECB Preview: Pause Now, Option to Hike Again Later

    Henry Occleston

    Summary We expect the ECB will hold deposit rate steady at 4.0%, this week. Following recent data, upside risks to terminal rate have softened. But, the ECB will push back on near-term cuts and leave the door open to more hikes. Bank lending survey adds to the dovish sentiment, with tightening credit standards and declining […]

Markets to Watch This Week: Is the UK in a Recession?

Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

NFP blew past expectations. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) were much higher than expected at 336k jobs versus expectations of around 170k, yet wage growth did not pick up. Wages grew by a measly 0.2% MoM...

G10 FX Weekly: Impressive USD Rally Shows First Signs of Fatigue

Richard Jones

The US dollar (USD) has continued its relentless climb as Q4 begins, poised to rise for a 12th straight week. Despite this, signs are emerging that the USD rally is losing steam. This is becoming increasingly evident in the two most heavily traded pairs: EUR/USD and USD/JPY. 

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