Bilal Hafeez
$-Bloc hike expectations moderated over the past week as inflation expectations pulled back. New Zealand’s two-year OIS swap slid 2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev)...
Macro Hive
Andrew and Dominique discuss whether it is surprising that yields are not higher, why keeping an eye on retail sales data is important, and what markets could be next...
Bilal Hafeez
Hike expectations are rising across Scandinavia and the $-Bloc. Sweden’s two-year OIS swap jumped +2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev), closely followed by...
Macro Hive
Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut share their thoughts on last week’s FOMC meeting, non-farm payrolls, and whether the Fed’s comments on quantitative tightening...
Bilal Hafeez
Pleased to have featured on Bloomberg TV yesterday to discuss whether the recent selloffs we have been seeing are justified...
Macro Hive
Early last month, Macro Hive Senior Strategist Dominique Dwor-Frecaut shared her non-consensus view that the terminal Fed funds rate is likely to reach 8% in the next few years to stabilise inflation.
Bilal Hafeez
The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with DXY up 2% on the week. Meanwhile, CNH continued to weaken (-3.1 std-devs over the past week) – Bert suggests remaining short CNY until the PBOC stops the move.
Macro Hive
Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss what factors drove the risk selloff at the end of the week, what we can expect at the upcoming Fed meeting...
Bilal Hafeez
Markets turned more hawkish on $-Bloc Central Banks. Ahead of Australia’s inflation print on Wednesday, markets had begun to price the 3 May meeting...
Macro Hive
Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, whether the Fed will continue to hike if Europe goes into recession...
Sam van de Schootbrugge
In this explainer, we cover how to price a bond, how to use duration to predict bond price changes, and how to use convexity to get better estimates of profit and loss.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine surprised many investors, with stock markets reacting very negatively throughout February and early March.
Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw a renewed move higher in crude oil as American equities continued to breakdown through the start of 2022’s first earning season. Meanwhile, USD/JPY pushed through 128.0.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Prominent economist Larry Summers looks at the labour market to argue the Fed is unlikely to reduce inflation without causing a recession.
Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw weakness across both fixed income and equity markets as inflation fears persist, and central bank hawkishness is increasingly priced.
Bilal Hafeez
Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut share their thoughts on the Fed becoming more hawkish, when we could see a potential recession...
Aneet Chachra
Before the New Year, average strategist forecasts for 2022 called for an 8% gain in the S&P 500. But now?
Sam van de Schootbrugge
New research attributes the long-term decline in interest rates to the 'hall of mirrors'.
Bilal Hafeez
Short-end yields were the biggest vol-adjusted movers of the week. 2Y UST yield led the rise to briefly break 2.5%, its highest rate since early 2019...
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