Rates / FXsee more…

  1. Week Ahead: What Market Could be Next to Sell Off? (16th May – 20th May)

    Macro Hive

    Andrew and Dominique discuss whether it is surprising that yields are not higher, why keeping an eye on retail sales data is important, and what markets could be next...

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: US CPI and UK GDP in Focus

    Bilal Hafeez

    Hike expectations are rising across Scandinavia and the $-Bloc. Sweden’s two-year OIS swap jumped +2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev), closely followed by...

  3. Week Ahead: Thoughts on FOMC Meeting & NFP, and Why Upcoming CPI is Important (9th May – 13th May)

    Macro Hive

    Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut share their thoughts on last week’s FOMC meeting, non-farm payrolls, and whether the Fed’s comments on quantitative tightening...

  1. Bloomberg TV Interview: Will the Market Selloff Continue?

    Bilal Hafeez

    Pleased to have featured on Bloomberg TV yesterday to discuss whether the recent selloffs we have been seeing are justified...

  2. Webinar Recording: Fed to Hike to 8%

    Macro Hive

    Early last month, Macro Hive Senior Strategist Dominique Dwor-Frecaut shared her non-consensus view that the terminal Fed funds rate is likely to reach 8% in the next few years to stabilise inflation.

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: FOMC and BoE in Focus, with NFP to Follow

    Bilal Hafeez

    The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with DXY up 2% on the week. Meanwhile, CNH continued to weaken (-3.1 std-devs over the past week) – Bert suggests remaining short CNY until the PBOC stops the move.

Macro Hive Key Events: 2nd May – 6th May – Upcoming Fed Meeting, 75bp Unlikely in June & NFP Data

Macro Hive

Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss what factors drove the risk selloff at the end of the week, what we can expect at the upcoming Fed meeting...

Markets to Watch This Week: Australian Markets in Focus Ahead of Wednesday Inflation

Bilal Hafeez

Markets turned more hawkish on $-Bloc Central Banks. Ahead of Australia’s inflation print on Wednesday, markets had begun to price the 3 May meeting...

  1. Macro Hive Key Events: 25th Apr – 29th Apr – Why the FFR is Still Going to 8% and Key Upcoming Data

    Macro Hive

    Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, whether the Fed will continue to hike if Europe goes into recession...

  2. Convexity and Duration as Factors in Bond Market Investment

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    In this explainer, we cover how to price a bond, how to use duration to predict bond price changes, and how to use convexity to get better estimates of profit and loss.

  3. Stock Market Winners and Losers During the Russia-Ukraine War

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine surprised many investors, with stock markets reacting very negatively throughout February and early March.

Markets to Watch This Week: Fed Speakers Will Continue to Support 50bps Hikes

Bilal Hafeez

Last week saw a renewed move higher in crude oil as American equities continued to breakdown through the start of 2022’s first earning season. Meanwhile, USD/JPY pushed through 128.0.

US Recession: A Matter of When, Not If

Sam van de Schootbrugge

Prominent economist Larry Summers looks at the labour market to argue the Fed is unlikely to reduce inflation without causing a recession.

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: USTs Steepening to Continue

    Bilal Hafeez

    Last week saw weakness across both fixed income and equity markets as inflation fears persist, and central bank hawkishness is increasingly priced.

  2. Macro Hive Key Events: 11th Apr – 15th Apr – CPI to Start Showing Impact of Ukraine Crisis

    Bilal Hafeez

    Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut share their thoughts on the Fed becoming more hawkish, when we could see a potential recession...

  3. Strategists’ Predictions for End-2022

    Aneet Chachra

    Before the New Year, average strategist forecasts for 2022 called for an 8% gain in the S&P 500. But now?

Breaking Conventional Wisdom on Permanently Lower Interest Rates

Sam van de Schootbrugge

New research attributes the long-term decline in interest rates to the 'hall of mirrors'.

Markets to Watch This Week: Short-end USD Rates Close to Pricing 50bp May Hike

Bilal Hafeez

Short-end yields were the biggest vol-adjusted movers of the week. 2Y UST yield led the rise to briefly break 2.5%, its highest rate since early 2019...

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