Bilal Hafeez
Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank.
Richard Jones
Summary Long EUR/CHF was one of our strongest conviction trades in Q1 2024. The pair topped out earlier this month, but pullbacks have been shallow and short-lived. We think the Swiss National Bank could sell CHF during its easing cycle, while the BEER valuation for EUR/CHF sees the pair as 8.5% undervalued. Both factors would […]
Richard Jones
Summary The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) has continued verbal intervention, warning the market it is unhappy with USD/JPY price action and is prepared to push back against the JPY selloff. USD/JPY has continued rallying this week, breaking 154 for the first time in 34 years. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has had its strongest […]
Richard Jones
Summary After last week’s US jobs report and yesterday’s CPI data, US yields have exploded higher and have made new year-to-date (YTD) highs across the curve. USD/JPY has also accelerated quickly, closing above 152 for the first time in TKTK years, which greatly increases the probability of JPY intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance […]
Richard Jones
Summary US yields across the curve are at or near their year-to-date (YTD) highs, as are the USD Dollar Index (DXY) and most G10 USD pairs. At such levels, we would normally position for retracement lower. However, Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report presents major event risk. Market Implications We wait for price action post-NFP […]
Richard Jones
Summary Yesterday, USD/JPY traded to its strongest level since 1990 (on an intraday basis). This prompted the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) to verbally intervene (following further pushback earlier this week) to combat JPY weakness. This makes it much more likely that the MoF will buy JPY in the market, as verbal pushback has only […]
Richard Jones
Summary This week saw a torrent of central bank rate decisions, highlighted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ending its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). Also, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting rates by 25bps. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) kept policy steady with comparably less fanfare, […]
Richard Jones
Summary In the next seven days, six G10 central banks provide monetary policy updates. Excepting the Bank of Japan (BoJ), no interest rate moves are expected. Markets are therefore largely in wait-and-see mode, with most G10 currencies in a range, presenting very few attractive trades. Market Implications One exception to this is being short the […]
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. A positive rates (+0.3% WoW) outing battled poor equity (-0.4% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW) performances. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over […]
Ben Ford
Summary Momentum models declined -0.3% over the past week. Poor rates (-1.0% WoW) and FX (-0.2% WoW) outweighed a positive equity (+0.7% WoW) outing. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+6.9%). Market Implications Momentum models are bearish EUR/USD and bullish GBP/USD – we have closed our long USD trades. They […]
Richard Jones
Summary US 2-year and 10-year yields have range-traded year-to-date (YTD). US yields in both curve points have retraced slightly lower this month after sharp moves higher in February. We think the US jobs report tomorrow will be the catalyst for the next directional move in the US rates market, with the next Federal Reserve (Fed) […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]
Ben Ford
Summary Momentum models gained +0.3% over the past week. Equities fared best (+1.6% WoW), while rates (+0.0%) and FX (-0.1% WoW) underperformed. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+7.0%). Market Implications Momentum models are bullish EUR/USD – we are short – and bullish EUR/CHF – we are long. They are […]
Richard Jones
Summary Two weeks ago, EUR/USD traded down to the bottom of its YTD range of ~1.0700/1.1100, the lowest level since mid-November. Strong US data prints and hawkish Fed messaging drove the USD outperformance. Recently, however, buoyant risk sentiment and rallying equities have supported the euro, which is trading like a risk-on/risk-off currency. Downside momentum in […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY has traded above 150 in the past week or so for the first time since mid-November. This immediately prompted verbal intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), opposing JPY weakness. Should the pair remain above 150 and push towards the 2023 high near 152, we expect additional verbal intervention. We are also very […]
Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. Equities fared best (+0.3% WoW), then rates (+0.1%). FX (-0.2% WoW) underperformed. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+5.5%). […]
Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models added to last week’s gains, up +0.4% WoW. Equities fared best (+1.2% WoW), then rates (+0.3% WoW) and FX (+0.1% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model […]
Richard Jones
Summary After rallying on haven demand late last month, the Swiss franc (CHF) has weakened in February. Weaker-than-expected Swiss inflation data drove the decline, with imported product prices sliding. This indicates the currency is weighing materially on inflation and has prompted the market to price a strong probability of an SNB rate cut next month. […]
Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models reversed last week’s losses, up +0.2% WoW. Equities fared best (+0.4% WoW), then rates (+0.2% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over a three-month timeframe (+4.8%). […]
At Macro Hive, we offer a wide range of FX rates analysis and research into foreign exchange markets. We provide detailed FX analysis on DM and EM on a weekly basis, while our Emerging Markets team produces daily insights into the latest currency exchange rates and FX trends for China, India, Brazil and other EM countries. Our FX rates analysis also covers carry trades.
The trading of currencies on the FX market (or forex market) occurs 24 hours a day, five days a week across major financial centers worldwide. Our research is therefore global in perspective, and we cover the latest FX news alongside analysis of historical exchange rates in response to macro trends. At Macro Hive, we base our FX rates insights on a longer-term outlook, seeking to hold positions for weeks rather than intraday swings.
As with all investments, trading in currencies entails risk, especially during periods of high market volatility or geopolitical tension. We recommend investors interested in FX investments tailor their exposure according to their risk appetite. It is also possible to hedge to mitigate exposure to risk by using correlated currency pairs.
As a corollary to our FX research, Macro Hive also specialises in interest rate insights. We offer previews and reviews of central bank meetings and analysis of central bank communications, and our research extends to the broad macroeconomic implications of easing and tightening cycles. We use this to inform not just our FX analysis, but also our outlook on bonds, equities, and other asset classes.
Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…
Already have an account?…
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.