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Rates / FXsee more…

  1. CTAs Could Ignite Further UST Bullishness

    Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.2% WoW) were offset by rates. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+1.4%). […]

  2. G10 FX Weekly: December Dollar Downside? Patience the Modus Operandi for Short GBP

    Richard Jones

    We expect USD downside in December, mostly in the last two weeks. However, the outsized November fall may have already accounted for much of the move.

  3. QT to Continue Through 2024

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary My February expectation that QT would end in 2023 H2 did not happen due to: Slower bank loan growth. Increased Fed lending to banks after the spring bankruptcies. Tight money market liquidity that reduced use of the Fed RRP facility by MMFs. I do not expect these events to repeat in 2024; in particular, […]

  1. Markets to Watch This Week – Will European Inflation Continue Down Its Dovish Path?

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    We standardise WoW price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons. Last Week’s Highlights USD continued its decline as RoW data stabilises. The dollar index (DXY) kept falling last week, down 0.5% WoW. The biggest winners were NZD, AUD and GBP (Charts 1 and 2). The GBP performance owes much to a better-than-expected […]

  2. Equity Momentum Models Continue Outperformance

    Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.6% WoW) were offset by FX and rates. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month […]

  3. G10 FX Weekly: GBP (Eventually) Lower, USD Rangebound, Be Patient into Year-End

    Richard Jones

    Markets are chopping around in ranges, with the November highs/lows across the G10 FX and rates space to contain price action into year-end.

Markets to Watch This Week: Will the Riksbank Flip the Dovish Switch?

Viresh Kanabar, Bilal Hafeez

We standardise WoW price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons. Last Week’s Highlights Rates and USD fall sharply as US inflation comes in weaker than expected. October core and headline CPI were 10bp below expectations. On the headline inflation side, lower gasoline prices contributed. More importantly, on the core side, housing data […]

Equity Momentum Models Outperform as USD Turns Lower

Ben Ford

Summary Momentum models (-0.3% WoW) added to last week’s losses, although equity momentum models provided a bright spot (+0.3%). Meanwhile, FX (-0.7%) led declines. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+0.8%). FX (-0.5%) and equity (-0.9%) struggled. Market Implications Momentum models remain bullish on Gilts, in line with Henry’s view […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: After the Big Repricing, It Is Time for Consolidation

    Richard Jones

    Summary Sharp moves lower in US yields and the US dollar (USD) index (DXY) this month have taken both to multi-month lows. We think these outsized market reactions are in large part due to lopsided market positioning (long USD and short the US rates market). After the big market moves, we think a clear-out has […]

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Could Hot CPI Shake Up Market Complacency?

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Last Week’s Highlights Brent falls almost 5% on demand risks. Front-month Brent fell from $85 to $81 last week as demand worries retook centre stage. While Europe has shown the main signs of weakness, Chinese trade data sparked the sell-off last week despite being mixed. Crude imports rose from 11.2mn b/d to 11.4mn b/d last […]

  3. Prime Trade Ideas: Long JPY? Beware MoF Intervention!

    Viresh Kanabar

    We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content. Latest Updates FX, Rates, and Commodities: Beware MoF intervention when selling JPY […]

Momentum Models Continue to Underperform

Ben Ford, Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models (-0.5% WoW) added to last week’s losses, with rates (-1.2% WoW) leading.  FX momentum models (-0.1% WoW) registered smaller losses. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month […]

G10 FX Weekly: USD/JPY Heading Into the Danger Zone

Richard Jones

After pulling back to a low 149-handle last week, USD/JPY is now trading back up to ~151. The wild ride in the pair is worth breaking down, especially the whiplash price action from last week and into this week.

  1. Charts of the Week: Fed to Turn More Hawkish, BoE More Dovish?

    Matthew Tibble

    Summary Strikes may be behind Friday’s low US payroll data, suggesting the Fed may discount the print and keep a December hike in play. The BoE may be overestimating future wage growth due to reliance on problematic ONS data. We position for a more dovish outlook. Japan’s Ministry of Finance typically succeeds in supporting the […]

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Is Credit Still Flowing in China?

    Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

    Last Week’s Highlights 10Y yields collapsed… What drove the move? Last week’s price action was dominated by the collapse in long-end yields, which fell almost 30bps (Charts 1 and 3). Several factors drove this move. On Monday, the US treasury announced it would need to borrow $76bn less than expected at $776bn in privately held […]

  3. Momentum Models Reverse Last Week’s Gains

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models (-0.4% WoW) reversed last week’s gains, with rates (-0.8% WoW) FX momentum models (-0.2% WoW) registered smaller losses. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+3.0%). […]

G10 FX Weekly: USD/JPY Upside Remains Compelling, But Beware Intervention

Richard Jones

Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, with less than stellar survey and hard data in the Eurozone, the euro (EUR) has proven resilient in recent weeks.

BoE Preview: Dovish MPR to Justify Another Pause

Henry Occleston

Summary We expect the BoE to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25%, likely with fewer voters backing a hike than at the last meeting (when it was 5:4 in favour of a pause). The MPR forecasts are likely to be far more dovish than in August. Higher unemployment and lower expectations of wage growth will […]

Investing in the Foreign Exchange Market

At Macro Hive, we offer a wide range of FX rates analysis and research into foreign exchange markets. We provide detailed FX analysis on DM and EM on a weekly basis, while our Emerging Markets team produces daily insights into the latest currency exchange rates and FX trends for China, India, Brazil and other EM countries. Our FX rates analysis also covers carry trades.
The trading of currencies on the FX market (or forex market) occurs 24 hours a day, five days a week across major financial centers worldwide. Our research is therefore global in perspective, and we cover the latest FX news alongside analysis of historical exchange rates in response to macro trends. At Macro Hive, we base our FX rates insights on a longer-term outlook, seeking to hold positions for weeks rather than intraday swings.
As with all investments, trading in currencies entails risk, especially during periods of high market volatility or geopolitical tension. We recommend investors interested in FX investments tailor their exposure according to their risk appetite. It is also possible to hedge to mitigate exposure to risk by using correlated currency pairs.


Insights into Interest Rates

As a corollary to our FX research, Macro Hive also specialises in interest rate insights. We offer previews and reviews of central bank meetings and analysis of central bank communications, and our research extends to the broad macroeconomic implications of easing and tightening cycles. We use this to inform not just our FX analysis, but also our outlook on bonds, equities, and other asset classes.

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