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  1. Momentum Models Bullish USD But Room to Increase Conviction

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Rates momentum models (+0.4% WoW) outperformed FX and equity momentum models (-0.1% WoW) over the past week. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month time frame (+3.4%). FX (+0.6%) followed while equity (-3.0%) struggled. 

  2. Momentum Models Signal Lower UK Yields

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models signal lower UK yields. This aligns with Henry’s bias in the front-end of the curve. They also agree with our bearish US rates bias. 

  3. Momentum Models Flag the S&P 500 to Underperform

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum model signals sit in contrast to our view to fade CHF strength. They are also yet to get fully on board with our bullish USD basket trade (vs EUR, CHF and GBP).

  1. Momentum Models Move Max Long S&P While Being Max Short 10Y Treasuries

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities. 

  2. Momentum Models Suggest the Increase in Yields Is Far From Over!

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities.

  3. Momentum Models Flag US Rates to Underperform JGBs

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models back our view to be long 10Y JGBs vs 10Y USTs (target: -400bps) and long EUR/CHF. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities. They disagree with our view for GBP/CAD to trade lower over the next six months.

Momentum Models Continue to Expect FTSE-100 Underperformance

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

Momentum Models Heavily Bearish on USTs, JGBs, Bunds and Gilts

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Market Implications Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

  1. Momentum Models Support Long Bund vs UST Trade

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models support Mustafa and Henry’s view that there is value in being long 10Y Bunds vs USTs. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

  2. Momentum Models Support Positioning for Dovish BoE

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models support Henry’s view that there remains room for relative BoE dovishness versus the ECB and the Fed, which he likes via a 2s10s GBP/EUR box and by being short 1Y1Y US OIS vs 1Y1Y SONIA.

  3. Momentum Models Turn Heavily Bearish on EUR/CHF

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in rates (+0.4% WoW) were offset by losses in equities (-0.3% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW).

UK Inflation Catches Momentum Models by Surprise

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models slipped 0.3% WoW paring some of last week’s +0.5% gain.

Japanese Market Moves Provide Pain for Momentum Models

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models progressed +0.5% WoW having stumbled for the first time in seven weeks in last week’s report.

  1. Momentum Models Flip Bearish on EUR/CHF and Bullish on NZD/USD

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models progressed +0.5% WoW having stumbled for the first time in seven weeks in last week’s report.

  2. Momentum Models Pare EUR/USD Bullishness and Turn Bearish on AUD/USD

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models stumbled after six weeks of positive returns with equity (-0.3% WoW) and rates models (-0.4% WoW) faring worse than FX models (0.0% WoW).

  3. Momentum Models Flip Bullish on EUR/USD

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models delivered a sixth consecutive week of positive returns, led by FX (+0.1% WoW).

Momentum Models Flip Bearish JGBs

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models delivered a fifth consecutive week of positive returns, led by equities (+2.4% WoW).

Momentum Models Increase Equity Bullishness and US Rates Bearishness

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models delivered a fourth consecutive week of positive returns, led by equities (+0.9% WoW).

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