Chinasee more…

  1. Key Events: Fed to Prepare Market for March Cut

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary  Fed to prepare markets for March rate cut.  NFP to show continued labour market tightness.  Market Implications  Higher than I expected core PCE makes a 25bp cut marginally more likely than a 50bp cut at the March FOMC (my revised probabilities are 45% […]

  2. Key Events: It’s PCE Week, Will This Lead Us Down a Path to a 50 Point Cut?

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Core PCE to fall further away from the Fed’s 2% target. Q4 GDP could surprise on the upside but is likely to remain close to 2% trend. Market Implications I am still expecting, on balance, a 50bp cut at the March FOMC meeting, […]

  3. Key Events: Market Starting to Move Our Way on Another Non-Consensus Call

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Retail sales could surprise on the upside. Import prices could start showing the impact of higher shipping costs. Market Implications Still expect a 50bp cut at the March FOMC meeting. Fed The CPI lowered my odds of a 50bp cut in March but […]

  1. Key Events: Fed Worried by Return to Lowflation

    4 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | Emerging Markets US Summary CPI to show continued disinflation. Small business survey to show resilient growth trends. Fed The Fed December FOMC marked a deep change in policy bias, and I have changed my Fed view accordingly. The Fed now seeks to ease to support growth and asset prices, and […]

  2. Ep. 196: Rerelease: Niall Ferguson on Cold War 2, Middle East Conflict and Woke Students 

    Bilal Hafeez

    This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History.

  3. Ep. 194: Liang Ding on Can China Avoid a Hard Landing

    Bilal Hafeez

    Liang is currently based in Shanghai and has close to twenty years of market experience as a currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst.

Key Events: Labour Market Defies Waller

5 researchers

Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Fed on hold, markets unlikely to heed guidance on more rate hikes still possible. Downside risks to core CPI. Fed The Fed has already announced it would stay on hold, which I think reflects that disinflation has happened faster than expected in the […]

2024 Grey Swan: China Turns to the West

John Tierney

We are a week into December, and the holidays are tantalizingly close. Many people use this time to reflect on the year just gone. But for this Grey Swan, I want to fast-forward to December 2024. Imagine what we could be looking back on then… China’s Recovery Never Happened Entering 2Q 2024, it was becoming […]

  1. Key Events: Wage Growth or Trump 2.0? 

    5 researchers

    This week’s most interesting comment was from Bostic (non-voter, dove) who said that he was not in a rush to either hike or cut and was expecting only one cut next year, towards end-year. The comment suggests the doves are starting to realize that inflation could be stickier than they initially expected.

  2. Key Events: Why the Shutdown May Drag On! 

    5 researchers

    There was some disappointment that Powell did not discuss the tightening of financial conditions at this week Fed listens event.  Imho this reflects that the Fed put is unintentional. 

  3. Charts of the Week: BoE Forecast Revisions, Oil Pullback, Softer CHF

    Matthew Tibble

    The BoE’s recent suggestion that ONS wage growth data was inaccurate implies a dovish revision of the bank’s inflation forecasts. The USD/JPY rally may be smaller than previous ones. 

Key Events: GDP Revisions to Support the Hawks, Watch Out!

5 researchers

The outcome of the FOMC meeting was in line with my expectations: the Fed stayed on hold, kept an extra 2023 hike, reduced the number of 2024 cuts to two from previously four, kept the inflation trajectory unchanged but upgraded the growth trajectory.

Charts of the Week: Contrarian China View, Oil Over $100, and US GDP at Trend

Matthew Tibble

The contrarian trade is to be bullish China, but we find good reason to remain on the sidelines. Oil could hit $100/bbl, but we would fade any move higher.

  1. Key Events: The Fed May Surprise… Hawkish

    4 researchers

    Key issues facing the Fed include the ongoing growth acceleration that is inconsistent with slowing inflation as well as the ongoing rally in energy prices.   

  2. Key Events: Even the Doves Are Starting to Fly Away

    4 researchers

    Overall, the doves (Williams, Goolsbee, Bostic) came across as more nuanced this week. A common theme was the strength of the US economy.

  3. Key Events: Is Tipping in the US Distorting the Data?

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Ben Ford, Henry Occleston

    NY Fed president Williams to be less sanguine on disinflation than a month ago. Household net worth to remain above pre-pandemic.

Chinese Deflation Is Unlikely to Pass Through to US Consumer Goods Prices

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

The ongoing deflation in the price of US imports from China should moderate as it is based on sharp and unsustainable CNY weakening rather than on productivity gains. China’s influence on global export prices is set to weaken as the global trade system fragments and China’s role diminishes.

Key Events: Make or Break Week for ECB Decision

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Ben Ford, Henry Occleston

European data and ECB speakers will be the main attraction this week – it could be the make or break for whether they hike in September or choose to pause.

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