Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth. Summary The overall growth tracker continues to flatline. On the upside, the outbreak of anti-biotic resistant pulmonary disease has not harmed mobility yet. […]
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth. Summary The overall growth tracker is flat-lining, but individual indicators are diverging – mobility/congestion looks solid, but port activity, auto sales are soft. […]
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
Summary Mobility indicators continue to improve, but other indicators like port activity and the YiCai economy index are starting to flatline. Existing home prices are stabilizing in Tier 1 and 2 cities, but transactions fell back this week. Our Growth Tracker is starting to show mixed trends under the hood. While mobility-based indicators continued to […]
Mirza Baig
Summary Property transaction volumes picked up sharply last week in Tier 1 & 2 cities. Our sample data on prices suggests prices in those cities firmed as well. The drop in October PMIs was at odds with our growth tracker, which broadly suggests activity is stable or improving gradually. The overall growth tracker remains supported […]
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
High frequency activity-based indicators continue to tick higher, though the improvement is not broad-based. In aggregate, our tracker suggests the official composite PMI next week will print around 53.0.
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
Property prices improved in Tier 1 cities but not in Tier 2 and 3 cities following the implementation of new policies.
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
Holiday travel and spending improved sequentially but remains below the pre-Covid level. Mobility indicators suggest activity remained strong post-holiday, while property indicators suggest the slump has persisted.
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
Mobility based indicators improved further heading into the long nation-wide holidays. We are now tracking for a solid beat in the composite PMI for September vs. consensus expectation of 52.0.
Matthew Tibble
The BoE’s recent suggestion that ONS wage growth data was inaccurate implies a dovish revision of the bank’s inflation forecasts. The USD/JPY rally may be smaller than previous ones.
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
We have included high frequency indicators of the property market – weekly property transaction and prices. These show an underwhelming recovery so far.
Matthew Tibble
The contrarian trade is to be bullish China, but we find good reason to remain on the sidelines. Oil could hit $100/bbl, but we would fade any move higher.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China growth tracker has picked up since last week on stronger domestic road congestion data, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We also see prices of economically sensitive commodities like iron ore continue to rise, as is the Baltic Dry index.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Overall, our high-frequency China reopening index continues to stabilise, although our travel indicator (which looks at road congestion and subway traffic) looks to be stalling.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The ongoing deflation in the price of US imports from China should moderate as it is based on sharp and unsustainable CNY weakening rather than on productivity gains. China’s influence on global export prices is set to weaken as the global trade system fragments and China’s role diminishes.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index appears to have found a solid base while our market data-based China growth tracker has further improved.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index appears to have found a solid base while our market data-based China growth tracker has further improved.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Global departures are plateauing, averaging 132k a day since mid-July (Chart 1). Historically, global departures have declined from here.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index has pared its preliminary spike higher and is now only marginally higher than levels seen in June. Our China growth tracker based on market data continues to improve, though our economic data-based tracker saw a strong preliminary weakening through July on the back of PMIs.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index has improved sharply over the past two weeks, in line with Singapore crack spreads.
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