Bilal Hafeez

Macro Hive Author

If you would like to connect and contact the author,
please email meettheresearchers@macrohive.com
SPECIALITY: Global Macro, FX, Emerging Markets,

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive.

He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

MY ARTICLES

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics

Four Lessons From the UK’s COVID Delta Wave

July 27, 2021

The UK’s decision to lift all restrictions during a surge in COVID cases has drawn much criticism. But we find the scale…

In: Hive Exclusives | Markets and Investing

Podcast Transcript: Former Deutsche Bank Chair/CEO Josef Ackermann On Running a Bank and the Future of Banking

July 22, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Josef Ackermann, the former chairman of the management board and the group executive…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

Box Offices Figures Starting To Normalise

July 16, 2021

Following our last piece exploring the relationship between box office numbers and the post-Covid re-opening and return to normality, we offer an…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

US Inflation Is Still Benign

July 15, 2021

Headline US CPI inflation reached 5.4% in June and many are seeing this as a sign of a new higher inflation regime.…

In: Hive Exclusives | UK

Why Football Did Not Come Home

July 12, 2021

‘Football’s coming home’ was the anthem for England fans throughout the Euro 2020 football tournament. All the omens were positive. England reached…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Podcast Transcript: John Butler on Stagflation, Gold and Bitcoin

July 12, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with commodities expert and top macro strategist John Butler. We discussed stagflation and how to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Charles Goodhart on Money Printing, Inflation and Ageing

June 29, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Charles Goodhart CBE, Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, and…

US deflation in 2022?

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Will We See Deflation in the US in 2022?

June 29, 2021

US headline CPI inflation is currently running at 5% and many, including the Fed, are fearing the return of high inflation. Markets…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Equities

Which Simple Strategy Is Outperforming Hedge Funds?

June 22, 2021

Hedge funds – the elite investors of finance – are delivering impressive returns. Benchmarks of hedge fund returns for the past 12…

In: Hive Exclusives | Miscellaneous

Macro Hive’s Second Anniversary! Five Numbers That Tell Our Story

June 21, 2021

Macro Hive is celebrating its second anniversary! And sticking to our philosophy of being analytical in all things, whether helping investors navigate…

In: Hive Exclusives | Hive Life Specials

Podcast Transcript: Professor Adrian Williams on Everything You Wanted to Know About Sleep

June 11, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Dr. Adrian Williams, the UK’s first Professor of Sleep Medicine. This was our…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

What Are Box Offices Telling Us About the Re-Opening?

June 08, 2021

After COVID lockdowns, the true test of a country’s re-opening is how willing movie-lovers are to return to the cinema. After all,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics UK

Sajid Javid On Inflation, Climate Change & Post-Brexit Britain (Podcast Transcript)

June 03, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with former UK Chancellor Sajid Javid. We discussed the UK response to the pandemic,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on US Labour Supply, Inflation and Timing the Bond Sell-Off

June 01, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, who has worked at Bridgewater, Barclays, RBS, the New York Fed,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Phil Suttle on Coming High Inflation, Goods Recessions and Fed in Play

May 25, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Phil Suttle who runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Bitcoin Is Not an Inflation Hedge

May 17, 2021

If there was a moment for Bitcoin to showcase its inflation-hedging capabilities, it would have been last week. April inflation data for…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Politics & Geopolitics

Podcast Transcript: Wolfgang Münchau on Germany’s Political Risks, Fiscal Stimulus and Euro Instability

May 17, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. We discussed German politics, the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Jeff Snider on Deflation, Central Bank Failure, and Understanding Money

May 07, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. We…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Boris Vladimirov on Inflation Permanence, European Banks and BRICS Outlook

May 04, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Boris Vladimirov, who is a MD at Goldman and before that partner…

In: Hive Exclusives | China Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Podcast Transcript: Bobby Vedral on Taxing Big Tech, Europe’s Edge, and Biden’s China Policy

April 20, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Bobby Vedral, partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. We discussed…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Credit Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: David Riley On US Debt Sustainability, the Reflation Trade and Corporate Defaults

April 15, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with David Riley, Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management. We…

In: Hive Exclusives | China

Five Things You Did Not Know About China

April 13, 2021

China is a global economic superpower, yet much remains unknown about its economy. Here are five insights that stand out for me:…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities FX

Podcast Transcript: Benn Eifert On Retail Options Boom, Over-Complex Derivatives, and Managing Tail Risk

April 08, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Benn Eifert, managing member and CIO of QVR. We talked derivatives post…

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change

Podcast Transcript: Marco Monroy On Carbon Taxes, ESG Investing and Maradona

March 30, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Marco Monroy, Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group. He discussed climate…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Podcast Transcript: Zac Prince on Earning Interest on Bitcoin and the Future of Crypto Finance

March 26, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Zac Prince, where we discussed uses of crypto, defi, hedging and regulatory…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: James Aitken On Stock Vigilantes, Yield Curve Control and Inflation Paths

March 23, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with James Aitken, who gave his views on portfolio hedging, stock vigilantes, inflation,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Is Official Inflation Data Fake?

March 22, 2021

‘If there’s no inflation, why are prices up so much?’ So reads a Time article from 2013. Today, this sentiment returns: ardent…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Does the Fed Really Want Inflation?

March 15, 2021

Investors are obsessing about this Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Will the Fed raise their forecasts for policy rate hikes in 2023? Will they…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Podcast Transcript: Peter Tertzakian on Energy Transitions, Electric Vehicles and Big Oil

March 09, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Peter Tertzakian, who discusses the path of renewables and clean tech, continuing…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

Podcast Transcript: Ciamac Moallemi On Quant Investing, Machine Learning and Trading Styles

March 04, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Ciamac Moallemi, Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Fed is Failing

March 01, 2021

The Fed’s failure is neither that rates volatility has picked up nor that equity markets fell last week. Rather, it is that…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Podcast Transcript: Jay Pelosky on the Coming Boom, Mega-Tech Weakness and Big Government

February 25, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto EM FX

Bitcoin: A Bet on Reflation, Not the Dollar’s Demise

February 22, 2021

Bitcoin is up almost 90% this year. Many crypto enthusiasts think this signals that bitcoin will replace the dollar in the global…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Economic Growth Europe

Podcast Transcript: Christian Hille on Exponential Growth, Avoiding Low Returns, and Errors in Risk Management

February 16, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Christian Hille, the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell’sche…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Economic Growth Equities US

Higher US Yields Are Good for Equities

February 16, 2021

Many say that higher US bond yields will derail the US equity rally. Yet, US 10y yields have more than doubled to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds EM Equities Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Podcast Transcript: Jon Turek on the New Fed Put, the Brainard US Curve Steepener and the Dollar

February 09, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jon Turek. He gave his views on how to approach the Fed’s…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto Bonds China COVID Europe FX Politics & Geopolitics US

Podcast Transcript: Barry Eichengreen on Dollar Dominance, Crypto Hype, and Reforming International Finance

February 08, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Professor Barry Eichengreen, one of the leading thinkers on international economics and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

The Real Meaning of the Reddit Rebellion Against Stocks

January 28, 2021

Summary Reddit rebels were buying stocks and short squeezes are common after crises. This suggests stock markets may have more support than…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto COVID ESG & Climate Change

Podcast Transcript: Eli Dourado on the Key Tech Breakthroughs For the 2020s

January 21, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with economist and regulatory hacker, Eli Dourado. He provides his views on some…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds EM Equities ESG & Climate Change Europe FX LATAM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: 12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners

January 18, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our 12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners podcast episode. The trade ideas are the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China COVID EM Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Inflation! What Inflation?

January 11, 2021

Summary China has increased fiscal deficits, credit, public spending, and has re-opened, yet inflation is anemic. This shows that commodity price inflation…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID EEMEA Europe Global Politics & Geopolitics UK US

Geopolitics Returns!

January 07, 2021

Summary New alliances in the Middle East, the EU-China CAI deal, and Brexit show geopolitics is back. The US-China battle on digital…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

Is There A Strong Consensus For Dollar Weakness In 2021?

January 05, 2021

Summary Consensus FX forecasts indicate no expectation of dollar weakness against the majors. Market implication: the bearish dollar trade may not be…

Academic Paper Summaries

In: Deep Dives |

Full List Of 2020 Deep Dives

December 29, 2020

Our Deep Dives have proven to be one of the most popular Macro Hive products this year. In total, we have written…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Book Recommendations Of The Year

December 17, 2020

We’ve had many great guests on our podcast show this year, and fascinating discussing on a whole range of topics. I always…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto COVID Equities Real Estate

Podcast Transcript: Jim Leitner On Growth vs Value, Digital Options And Bitcoin

December 14, 2020

This is a transcript of our podcast episode with one of our most popular returning guests, star investor Jim Leitner. He gives…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Equities Politics & Geopolitics US

2021 Grey Swan #6: US and China Go to War Over Taiwan

December 09, 2020

With all the talk about the return of Great Power politics, few are actually looking for a direct confrontation between the US…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Global US

2021 Grey Swan #1: US Yields Go Negative!

December 07, 2020

It’s remarkable that for all the talk of negative-yielding bonds, no one is entertaining the possibility that US 10y yields could go…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

US Election Competition Results: Four People Have Won $5000s’ Worth of Our Professional Offering!

December 01, 2020

Last month, we held our first-ever Macro Hive competition and we made sure that the prize really lived up to it -…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth Equities ESG & Climate Change Europe FX Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation Real Estate US

8 Charts To Give Thanks For In 2020

November 25, 2020

The upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday is usually a time for families to gather and give thanks. However, this year the COVID pandemic…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

How COVID-19 Kills Inflation

November 24, 2020

Yet again, everyone sees nothing but inflation following a sharp downturn. Just like after the 2008 financial crisis, policymaker, analyst and investor…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China COVID Politics & Geopolitics US

The True Economic Consequences Of The COVID Peace

November 17, 2020

The war against the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be in its final stretch with the news of two Western vaccines, but investors…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China Equities US

Introducing CTA Momentum Models For Canadian Futures

November 17, 2020

Momentum strategies are a core part of any systematic investment approach. The challenge is to keep finding ways to improve returns, especially…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Don’t Believe The Trump Coup Conspiracy Theories

November 13, 2020

A vocal minority still believe that President Trump could win the election. According to them, his options are overturning the results, pressuring…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Lessons From The US Election

November 05, 2020

Summary Yet again, forecasters, pollsters and alarmists were wrong about the US election. It was much closer and more peaceful than expected.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

What Are Final Expectations For The US 2020 Presidential Election?

November 02, 2020

 Summary Models and prediction markets are predicting a Democrat sweep (Biden to win, Democrats to gain Senate, and retain House) Biden is…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Macro Hive Webinar: How Markets Trade Around US Elections, Chinese Yuan To Strengthen & Live Q&A

October 16, 2020

Andrew Simon and I really enjoyed talking to everyone on Wednesday on our first-ever live public webinar, so thank you to those who…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 19 October

October 16, 2020

Monetary Policy Monetary policy meetings are concentrated in EM during the coming week. China and Hungary are on Tuesday, followed by Turkey,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Will Democrats Protest The Election Results?

October 13, 2020

While many have focused on whether President Trump will protest the November election results, another possibility is that Democrats could. After all,…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 12 October

October 09, 2020

Monetary Policy The IIF’s five-day, virtual, annual meeting will feature panels with a number of central bank officials including Kuroda, de Guindos…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Does Trump Have Enough Time To Overturn Biden’s Lead?

October 06, 2020

With less than a month before the US election, Biden has made gains on Trump in prediction markets. While Trump returning to…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 5 October

October 02, 2020

Monetary Policy Fed minutes plus speeches from Chair Powell and Williams will be in focus this week. Several ECB officials, including President…

In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

September 28, 2020

We are back with our smart investor survey. The respondents are mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 28 September

September 25, 2020

Monetary Policy The plethora of Fedspeak continues with Williams and Clarida among the scheduled speakers over the coming week. ECB officials will…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

How Far Could US Stocks Fall?

September 22, 2020

Global stocks have tumbled in recent days given a combination of fears over a second COVID wave in Europe, lingering disappointment over…

Courtroom

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Will The Supreme Court Race Disrupt Biden’s Lead?

September 21, 2020

The recent death of liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has shifted political attention to who will pick the next Supreme Court…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation

Key Events

September 21, 2020

Monetary Policy After a flurry of major DM central bank meetings last week, this week is quiet in terms policy meetings. There…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

What Are The Forecasts For A Trump Win?

September 15, 2020

A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump.…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events

September 14, 2020

Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed meeting is the highlight of the week with Chair Powell set to give details on the shift to…

US Election

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Will The FBI Interfere In The US Elections Again?

September 08, 2020

In an era of information overload, it is surprising that there are still things that remain undiscussed. Take the upcoming US elections…

Bitcoin and Equities

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto Equities US

Did Bitcoin, Rather Than Softbank, Lead The US Stock Sell-off?

September 07, 2020

It is now widely known that Softbank had engaged in significant buying of US tech stocks through options. But it was already…

Equity Sell-off

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

5 Things You Need To Know About The US Stocks Collapse

September 04, 2020

US equities finally showed some weakness. The S&P500 fell 3.5% on Thursday, while the NASDAQ fell 5%. Here are five things you…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Politics & Geopolitics US

Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump

August 26, 2020

Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID EM FX

Korean FX Markets To Ignore COVID Second Wave

August 20, 2020

USD/KRW has stabilised around 1185 – its post-COVID lows – in recent weeks. This comes even as Korea faces a second wave…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities

Equities Care About Vaccines, Not Second Waves

August 13, 2020

Numerous countries are experiencing second waves of COVID-19 infections – not that you would know from their equity market performance. Take the…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Dr Reza Baqir

August 11, 2020

We were delighted to have serving Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (2019-current) and 18-year veteran of the IMF Dr Reza…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Indian Rupee Weakness Expected

August 06, 2020

USD/INR has struggled to break below 74.50 over the past month even as the dollar (DXY) has weakened. This reflects a broader…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Taiwan Dollar Strength Could Continue

August 06, 2020

The Taiwan dollar (TWD) has recently started to show some strength – it was up almost 1% against the dollar in the…

China Growth

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

China Growth Tracker – Still Strong Even With More US-China Tensions

July 23, 2020

We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly…

US Dollar

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Dollar Dominance In The Age Of COVID

July 21, 2020

[Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…

Asia FX Momentum

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

How Asia FX Futures Can Improve FX Momentum Strategy Performance

July 20, 2020

G10 FX momentum strategies have delivered poor returns over the past decade.Part of this could be due to a lack of diversification;…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

July 16, 2020

We recently surveyed our Macro Hive network. The respondents were mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy and…

In: Deep Dives | Asia EM FX

The Diversification Benefits Of Asia FX Futures

July 15, 2020

‘Emerging’ Asia economies are now as large as advanced economies, yet investors continue to show bias towards trading developed markets.At the same…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Raghuram Rajan

July 14, 2020

We were delighted to have former RBI governor (2013-2016) and former IMF chief economist (2003-2006) Raghuram Rajan as our podcast guest last…

Iron Ore China

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities Economic Growth EM Labour Market & Inequality

Using Iron Ore To Track China Growth

July 14, 2020

[Bullish Equities, Bullish Euro] China now competes with the US as a key driver of global growth. Yet the quality of Chinese…

Research

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

How The COVID-19 Pandemic Will Disrupt Research

June 12, 2020

The investment bank or sell-side financial sector has experienced major shocks in recent decades. Some have been positive, like the repeal of US…

No Recession

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US

There Is No Recession

June 11, 2020

The IMF says it’s the worst recession since the Great Depression. No, the worst in 300 years, says the Bank of England. And now this week…

George Flyod

In: Hive Exclusives | US

Whose Lives Matter

June 10, 2020

Yellow people. Red people. Black people. Brown people. White people. In theory, we believe everyone’s lives matter equally…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Macro Hive’s One-year Anniversary: 5 Lessons We Have Learned Running A Start-up

June 08, 2020

One year ago, Macro Hive came into existence as we sent out our first email. It contained two notes from me – one on climate change, another on…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Politics & Geopolitics

Markets Ignoring Protests, But Trump Shouldn’t

June 04, 2020

Unrest. Looting. Rebellion. Riots. All these terms and many more dominate news headlines as protests erupt across the US…

Singapore FX

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX

Asia FX Insights

June 02, 2020

The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID FX

Asia FX Update: Watch INR

May 14, 2020

Markets are starting to come to terms with a COVID world and Asia FX is no different. After tumbling in March, most Asia FX stabilised over…

Social Distancing Measures

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Which Countries’ Populations Are Following Lockdown Rules?

May 07, 2020

We look at which countries have the strictest lockdowns, and using mobility data we track which countries have followed the lockdowns most closely…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities EM Equities US

Inaugural Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

May 05, 2020

US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…

Earth COVID

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

World Before COVID, World After COVID

April 30, 2020

We’re in the fog of COVID, and it would be tempting to extrapolate our lockdown lifestyles into the post-COVID world. However…

COVID Deaths per Age

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Does Age Explain COVID Deaths Across Countries?

April 23, 2020

Age is one of the clearest contributing factors to COVID fatalities. Study after study is finding that the case fatality rate (CFR) for the elderly is much…

COVID Reporting

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Are Deaths Being Under-reported?

April 16, 2020

While the number of COVID cases being reported by countries depends as much on the scale of testing than the level of infections, the number of…

COVID Unknown

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

COVID-19 Fog Of War: 3 Knowns, 3 Unknowns

April 16, 2020

US equities capture the mood of investors well. We saw equities collapse 35% over four weeks from late February, then a 25% rally from late March until…

Emerging Markets

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Emerging Markets Are Not Out of the Woods Yet

April 09, 2020

The past week or so saw a recovery in almost all risk markets, including emerging markets (EM). So is all well in EM? We’d be more cautious. For one,…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Where Are The Global COVID Hotspots?

April 09, 2020

Whether it’s confirmed cases, deaths, testing, or ICU beds, we’re inundated with data on COVID-19. In fact, it’s hard to keep track of which countries…

In: Deep Dives | COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation

What Natural Disasters Can Tell Us About The Impact Of COVID On Inflation

April 08, 2020

There’s been a number of recent papers on the impact of pandemics on economies. A Fed paper looks directly at pandemics going back…

USD Disinflation

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Are We Underestimating Disinflation?

April 02, 2020

Despite many headline-grabbing downward revisions to US growth, most economists are not expecting inflation to fall by much. The consensus for core…

Winston Churchill in Power

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID UK

Will Boris Fail In His Churchillian Moment?

March 19, 2020

The UK appears to be on a war footing. The enemy is an invisible one, the COVID-19 coronavirus. ‘We must act like any wartime government’, said…

US Bear Market

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US

How Bearish Are Investors On US Growth?

March 18, 2020

Recent yield curve steepening has actually reduced the odds of a recession to 12% (Chart 1). This Fed model could well reflect a longer-term view that…

US Recession Trump

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Fed’s Panic Cut Signals US Recession Is Here

March 16, 2020

We’ve been arguing that COVID should trigger a US recession and now it seems the Fed is worried too. It’s dramatic 100bps cut yesterday brings interest…

Pandemic Problems

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change

Pandemics And Wars Always Find People Equally Unprepared

March 12, 2020

“Public opinion is sacred: no panic, above all no panic”. “There have been as many plagues in the world as there have been wars, yet plagues and wars…

Machine Learning Predicting Crises

In: Deep Dives | Bonds Credit

Can Machine Learning Help Predict Crises?

March 04, 2020

Forecasting financial crises is difficult. The data comprises a limited set of observed instances and signals a warning only when it is already too late…

Mike Bloomberg Iowa

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

What Happened To Mike Bloomberg?

February 20, 2020

Investors love him, polls were surging in his favour, and his ad spending was off the charts. Yet, by all accounts, Democratic presidential hopeful…

Red Roses

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth Equities Europe FX Politics & Geopolitics US

7 Charts To Love On Valentine’s Day

February 14, 2020

It’s easy to paint gloomy pictures of the world whether looking at market valuations, climate change or health scares. However, not all is lost,…

Stock Market Analysis

In: Deep Dives | Equities ESG & Climate Change

How Carbon Risk Is Impacting Stock Returns

February 03, 2020

Scientific consensus has long been reached on a link between human activities and climate change. But now investors have taken notice, and…

Bernie Sanders

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

Could Bernie Sanders Upset Markets?

January 30, 2020

The US presidential election season will start proper next Monday when the first nominating vote for the Democrat candidate will take place…

UK Flag

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

4 Macro Things You Didn’t Know About The UK

January 23, 2020

While most are focused on UK data in the short-term to gauge whether the Bank of England will cut rates next week, we shouldn’t lose sight of…

Investor Forecast

In: Deep Dives | FX

Which FX Valuation Models Work Best?

January 22, 2020

While most markets like equities and bonds have well-established valuation models, FX markets often baffle people. What anchors the value of a currency?

Apple Logo

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

2020 Grey Swan: Apple Buys Disney

January 09, 2020

Apple’s earnings have been stagnating in recent years (Chart 1). They are reliant on iPhone sales and upgrades in a maturing smartphone market…

US Flag

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

2020 Grey Swan: US Introduces Capital Controls

January 09, 2020

While everyone has been talking about trade wars, the next battle may be fought over capital flows. Under President Trump, the US has battled…

Multiple Currencies

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

Which Currencies Are Expected To Gain The Most In 2020?

January 09, 2020

Looking at the consensus of FX analysts, the biggest gains* in the G10 against the dollar are expected to be the Norwegian krone (+3%) and the pound (+2%), while…

Global Outlook

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Global Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics

Your Guide To The 46 Macro Events That Matter In 2020

January 09, 2020

We’ve finally entered a decade we can give a proper name to – the twenties. And we’ll soon see whether or not it will be roaring because…

US Flag

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US

Louis Hyman, “Temp: How American Work, American Business, And The American Dream Became Temporary” (New Books In Economics)

December 27, 2019

Louis Hyman, Professor of History at Cornell University and ex-McKinsey, unravels the decline of steady work in his latest book, Temp…

Trends of 2010

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues

Underrated Trends Of The 2010s (The Indicator From Planet Money)

December 27, 2019

Cardiff Garcia and Stacey Vanek Smith, hosts of “Planet Money” reflect upon the decade of the 2010’s and presents 3 critical trends…

Impeachment

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US

America’s Impeachment Struggle | Noah Feldman (Opinion Has It)

December 27, 2019

Noah Feldman, an American Professor of Law at Harvard Law School presents insights on the case for impeachment of Donald J. Trump:…

Ash Carter

In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

Ash Carter (Talks at GS)

December 27, 2019

Former US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter sheds light on key issues in US foreign policy and the role of technology and innovation…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

Juliette Declercq: Inflations Is Not In The Cards (Macro Voices)

December 27, 2019

Juliette Declercq decodes the macro outlook and translates that view into actionable trading strategies:…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

Louis-Vincent Gave: Tech Stocks Are At The Same % Of SPX Composition As The 1999 High (Macro Voices)

December 20, 2019

CEO of Gavekal Research, Louis-Vincent, discusses the S&P 500 Christmas Rally, tech companies’ index composition, the trade war, the return of inflation,…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy

A Stock Picker’s Guide To 2020 (The BID)

December 20, 2019

Tony DeSpirito, Managing Director and Director of Investments at BlackRock discusses his outlook for stocks in 2020…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

Is Sustainable Finance the Next Big Commercial Opportunity? (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs)

December 20, 2019

John Goldstein, head of Goldman Sachs’ Sustainable Finance Group, shares valuable insights and operational details…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

Billionaire Jim Simons’ Quant Revolution w/ Gregory Zuckerman (We Study Billionaires – The Investor’s Podcast Network)

December 20, 2019

In an interview for The Investor’s Podcast, bestselling author Gregory Zuckerman looks at the lifetime achievements of the founder of Renaissance Technologies, Jim Simons:…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Economics

Global Economic Update With Torsten Slok (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research)

December 20, 2019

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, concisely articulates the macro drivers impacting the markets today and the things to watch in 2020…

UK Parliament

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics UK

3 Non-Brexit Macro Shocks the New UK Government Could Face in Its First Term

December 19, 2019

With the large Conservative majority in government, both UK markets and the economy are likely to enter a honeymoon period in the months ahead…

Podcast Awards

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

Macro Hive: Top Macro Podcasters Of 2019

December 19, 2019

Welcome to Macro Hive’s Podcast Awards for 2019. We find that podcasts are fast becoming a top medium for timely macro insights…

Hand shake

In: Deep Dives | Labour Market & Inequality

How Bromance Explains The Gender Pay Gap

December 18, 2019

Numerous theories claim to explain the gender gaps in pay and promotions. But one of the most compelling is the ‘the old boys’ club’…

Retail Investing

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

Picking 401(k) Funds Can Be as Easy as ABC, and That’s Bad (WSJ Your Money Briefing)

December 13, 2019

Wall Street contributor Daisy Maxey reveals several behavioural biases found to be associated with investors’ fund selection process:…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Economics Sustainability & Social Issues US

X-Prize Founder Peter Diamandis & Steven Kotler on the Speed of Technology (Business Podcast)

December 13, 2019

Peter Diamandis, Founder and Executive Chairman of X-Prize Foundation and Harvard Professor Steven Kotler discuss their new book…

Canadian Flag

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market

Oil Be Going: Canada’s Separatist West (The Economist)

December 13, 2019

The Economist covers Wexit (Quebec breaking away) in Canada, big data startups in climate change, and how the increased numbers of billionaires in Sweden…

In: Podcast Playlists | Credit Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

How Nearly Two Decades of Fed Policy Contributed to Bubbles, Busts, and a Boom in Debt (Bloomberg Market, Odd Lots)

December 13, 2019

Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, Managing Director of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, explains how the Fed’s goal of inflation targeting is responsible for high leverage…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Jim Bianco on Negative Interest Rates, Low Inflation, and Yield Curve Expansion (Macro Musings)

December 13, 2019

Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, discusses Fed policy and negative interest rates. $12.5 trillion in negative interest rate assets, all of which originate from continental Europe and Japan…

Boris Johnson

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Politics & Geopolitics UK

My 8 Takeaways From The UK Election Result

December 13, 2019

The results are in and it looks like the Conservative party will have an 80-seat majority. This is much more than polling had suggested…

Grey Black Swan

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Equities Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics UK US

The Macro Hive 10 Grey Swans For 2020

December 09, 2019

Black swan events are the unknown unknowns that no one can even envisage, let alone predict. But their close cousin – grey swans – can enter our imaginations…

Energy Market

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

Long-Term Investment Theme: the Energy Transition (UBS On Air)

December 05, 2019

UBS energy experts analyse long term investment themes around energy transition and the opportunities it presents for investors…

China Bond Market

In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Rates

How Bond Defaults Are Changing China’s Markets (Bloomberg Markets Odd Lots)

December 05, 2019

Jun Pan, Professor of Finance at Jiao Tong University, has a flair for insightful communicaton and is an expert researcher of Chinese corporate bond markets…

China

In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Growth & Labour Market

China’s Consumer Decade (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research)

December 05, 2019

Yi Xiong, China Economist at Deutsche Bank analyses the Chinese economy over the next decade, highlighting the crucial role of consumption…

Global Economic Growth

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

Insights from Blackstone’s Private Equity Portfolio (Blackstone Podcast)

December 05, 2019

Blackstone conducts a survey of private equity companies in their portfolio, focusing on challenges and opportunities CEOs are facing. Prakash Melwani…

Banks

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation

Risks Mount In European Banks, EBA Warns (FT Banking Weekly)

December 05, 2019

Samantha Gross, Fellow at Brooking institute, explains why Saudi Aramco’s IPO did not get listed internationally as initially planned but was instead listed locally in Riyadh…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

Wow… What A Year For FX Carry Trades

December 05, 2019

If you looked only at the dollar and FX volatility, 2019 may have seemed a dull year. The dollar is up, but it’s been a choppy and modest ascent…

In: Deep Dives | ESG & Climate Change Real Estate

Climate Change Hits Property Prices

December 04, 2019

One of the clearest effects of climate change is sea level rise (SLR). The scientific community expects a global average SLR of around 3-6 ft. over the next century…

In: Deep Dives | Equities

How TV Affects Traders

December 03, 2019

You’d think traders are so focused on making money they pay little attention to TV. But that’s not the conclusion of Joel Peress and Daniel Schmidt in…

In: Deep Dives | Labour Market & Inequality

College-Educated Workers, AI Is Coming For You

December 02, 2019

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are eliciting much fear from society, especially considering the potential impact on the workplace…

Donald Trump

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US

Who’s Got The Jobs Under Trump?

December 02, 2019

This Friday we get the US employment data. We should see a pickup in payroll growth after two months of decline…

Aramco IPO Oil

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy

Saudi Arabia’s IPO Fail? (NPR)

November 28, 2019

Samantha Gross, Fellow at Brooking institute, explains why Saudi Aramco’s IPO did not get listed…

Populism

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics

Ian Bremmer on Populism (Talks at GS)

November 28, 2019

Geopolitical expert and Eurasia Group president, Ian Bremmer, discusses the drivers behind populism…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Equities

Reviewing the Fed’s Financial Stability Report (JP Morgan Economic)

November 28, 2019

Jim Glassman, Head Economist at JP Morgan Commercial Bank, reviews four financial vulnerabilities from the Fed’s report…

Economic Policy in a World

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

Mervyn King: Economic Policy in a World Turned Upside Down (IMF Podcasts)

November 28, 2019

Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, outlines the current state of global growth. He warns that…

Stock Investment Strategy

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

How Should I Be Positioned? (UBS on Air)

November 28, 2019

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation at UBS, and John Tousley, Head of Global Markets Strategy at Goldman Sachs…

Thanksgiving

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth EM Equities Labour Market & Inequality UK

8 Charts To Give Thanks For

November 25, 2019

This week will see Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. A holiday which brings families together, celebrates harmony and recognises the bounty of harvest…

Billionaire

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

The Billionaire Effect (The Bulletin with UBS)

November 21, 2019

Experts from UBS and PWC discuss their annual billionaire report and cite the existence of the “Billionaire Effect”…

Saving money

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

The Paradox Of Saving: Individual Rationality, Macroeconomic Headache (BNP Macro Waves)

November 21, 2019

William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, explains how low or negative rates increases saving rather than consumption, which slows economic growth…

great wall china

In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

Rural China: The Next Half-Billion (Investec Asset Management)

November 21, 2019

Professor Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University argues that the relationship between elections and the economy is changing. Democrats and Republicans…

data politics

In: Podcast Playlists | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Geopolitics

How Does The Economy Influence Voters? (The Indicator from Planet Money)

November 21, 2019

Professor Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University argues that the relationship between elections and the economy is changing…

Protecting Money Umbrella

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Growth & Labour Market

Breaking Down The Economic Impact of Capex (JP Morgan Economic Take)

November 21, 2019

JPMorgan’s Head Economist Jim Glassman delves into the perceived slump in capex this year. He finds that decline is not due to trade war dynamic…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation

How to Become a Superforecaster

November 20, 2019

The talking heads on TV give such a convincing forecast it’s hard to doubt them sometimes. But try pinning them down to a specific time frame and discrete future event – now that’s next to impossible…

In: Deep Dives | Global Politics & Geopolitics

Who Rules the World?

November 20, 2019

Elites. They’re all over the news these days. But who are they and what do we know about them? An excellent new study…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Equities Europe Labour Market & Inequality US

3 Charts For The Week Ahead: US Flows / Euro Cars / Global PMIs

November 18, 2019

The big event for the week ahead is the release of the November PMIs. But there are few other useful releases too. Here are my three focuses…

United States Statue of Liberty

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

Is Economic Orthodoxy Evolving? (Pitchfork Economics)

November 15, 2019

In this episode, University of Chicago finance professor Luigi Zingales discusses the impact of the ‘Chicago School’ of economic thinking on the US…

3D Printer

In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

Will 3D Printing Increase Trade? (Peterson Perspectives)

November 15, 2019

This episode discusses how 3D printing can impact international trade. Many think trade is the ladder for economies to develop…

Mishtalk

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation

Mishtalk’s Mike Shedlock Podcast On Hedgeye

November 15, 2019

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is one of our top bloggers of 2019, so he is well worth listening to. In this podcast, he opines on several controversial topics…

Federal Reserve

In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

Why the Repo Markets Went Crazy (Odd Lots, Bloomberg)

November 15, 2019

Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar, one of the leading experts on money markets, speaks on September’s repo market volatility…

Eugene Fama

In: Podcast Playlists | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

MIB Live with Eugene Fama and David Booth (Masters in Business)

November 15, 2019

In a live panel podcast hosted at Chicago Booth, the “father of modern finance” Eugene Fama and the business school’s namesake David Booth share their…

Top Macro Bloggers

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

Macro Hive: Top Macro Bloggers Of 2019

November 13, 2019

Welcome to the Macro Hive Blog Awards 2019. We thought it was time macro bloggers got their due recognition. So many great thinkers beaver away in forgotten corners of the economics and markets…

Data

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation US

3 Charts For The Week Ahead

November 10, 2019

Who’s in the Deflation Club? Already, we have China’s data for October, which showed surging headline inflation on higher pork prices, but…

Fishing for Yield

In: Deep Dives | Bonds Credit US

Government Yields Do Not Affect Corporate Bonds The Way You Think

November 06, 2019

In any given country, government bonds are thought to be safer than corporate ones. After all, governments have the ability to tax or even print money…

Bank Balance Sheet

In: Deep Dives | Bonds

Bank Balance Sheets Predict Bond Returns

November 06, 2019

Investors often try to use flow and positioning data to forecast market returns, whether in bond, equity, or other asset markets…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

Alex Gurevich: Stop This Conversation and Pause This Interview, Go Buy Gold! (Macro Voices)

November 05, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Alex Gurevich, Founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, gives his in-depth and insightful…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

How U.S. Yields Could Go Negative (What Goes Up)

November 05, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Lauren Goodwin, a portfolio strategist from NY Life Investment Management, shares her bearish,…

In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Henry Curr on Inflation, the Philips Curve, and A New Monetarism (Macro Musings)

November 05, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center is joined by Henry Curr, the economics…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

Scott Kupor on VC funding (FT Tech Tonic)

November 05, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Scott Kupor from Andreessen Horowitz talks about conditions needed for start-ups to grow,…

Services Trade

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

Trade Talks 107: Making Services Trade Great (Peterson Perspectives)

November 05, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This year’s World Trade Organisation report focuses on the trade of services and…

Halloween Macro

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China Economic Growth Equities Europe FX Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

11 Charts To Scare You This Halloween

October 30, 2019

It’s Halloween, so what better time to showcase some scary charts…

Ben Horowitz CEO

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

What You Do Is Who You Are (The Tim Ferris Show)

October 29, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A fascinating conversation with Ben Horowitz, co-founder of VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, on…

fiscal policy spending

In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

How To Spend It (The Sound of Economics)

October 29, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast discusses public finance. Is quantity more important than quality? Boris Cournede,…

populism

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics

The Future of the Establishment (Project Syndicate)

October 29, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Political Science professor Matthew Goodwin from the University of Kent discusses the recent…

Halloween Economics

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US

Scary Stories from the Eek-conomy (The Indicator)

October 29, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode of Halloween specials, ‘The Indicator’ asks economists, what scares them…

Global Growth Monetary Macro

In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy

UBS CIO Global Investment Forum: Macro Environment (UBS On-Air)

October 29, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Elga Bartsch, Head of Research at Blackrock Investment Institute, shares her views on…

Boris Johnson Henry VIII Politics

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Politics & Geopolitics UK

Boris Johnson Is Using The Henry VIII Playbook

October 27, 2019

Boris Johnson clearly sees himself as a modern day Winston Churchill. In his biography of the World War Two Prime Minister, Johnson…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Has Lost Credibility

October 24, 2019

The terminal decline in Euro-area growth appears to have stopped. The latest batch of European manufacturing PMIs show upticks for Germany and…

In: Deep Dives |

8 Principles Of Spending Your Way To Happiness

October 23, 2019

Most of us think more about how to earn money than how to spend it. Implicit within this is the assumption that ‘the more money I earn, the…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market UK

What Do We Know and What Should We Do About The Future of Work? (New Books in Economics)

October 22, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Features Melanie Simms, Professor of Work and Employment at the University of Glasgow…

Asia growth emerging markets

In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

The McKinsey Podcast: The Future of Asia (McKinsey Institute)

October 22, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Dives into the upcoming ‘Asian century’ – over half of the world’s GDP…

In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

China vs. The U.S.: Trade War to Cold War? (Real Vision)

October 22, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast interviews retired US General Robert Spalding, an ex-Defence Attaché in Beijing.…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

Fran Kinniry Discusses Diversified Portfolios (Masters in Business)

October 22, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Fran Kinniry Discusses Diversified Portfolios(Masters in Business, 75 mins) A wide-ranging interview of…

Quantitative Easing Helicopter Money

In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

Frances Coppola on the Macroeconomics of Helicopter Drops (Macro Musings)

October 22, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Frances Coppola on the Macroeconomics of Helicopter Drops (Macro Musings, 60 mins) Frances…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

What’s the Macro Hive Positioning Report Telling Us?

October 16, 2019

One of the biggest fears for investors is jumping onto crowded trades. With everyone positioned for the move, it makes it even harder for news…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (The Bulletin with UBS)

October 15, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A panel of two of the co-authors of the UN SDG (Sutainable Development Goals)…

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics UK

Brexit: A European Odyssey (The Sound of Economics)

October 15, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nicholas Barrett and Guntram Wolff discuss Brexit with Kalypso Nicolaïdis, based on her…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US

Global Economic Update with Torsten Slok (Podzept with Deutsche Bank)

October 15, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Recently in our curated content we discussed the healthy US labour market, especially…

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Don’t Call it QE (What Goes Up)

October 15, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Ben Emons from Medley Global Advisors and Luke Kawa from…

In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Why Governments Haven’t Learned The Lessons Of Japan (Odd Lots)

October 15, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Richard Koo from Nomura Research Institute coined the concept of a balance Sheet recession,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Europe US

Watch Earnings – Are US Stocks Still The Best Destination For Investors?

October 15, 2019

US Q3 earnings season has now started. JP Morgan and Citi have beaten expectations, while Goldman Sachs has disappointed. We’ll also see Netflix…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

What are J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs & Others Expecting In FX?

October 10, 2019

The dollar has performed well over the last three months. In fact, it has outperformed most currencies. The only exception in G10 is the yen, while currencies like…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities FX

Macro Hive Risk Barometer Update: Avoiding ‘Risk Aversion’ For Now

October 10, 2019

We recently introduced our Risk Barometer. It uses risk measures across various markets to determine whether markets are in ‘risk aversion’ or…

In: Deep Dives | Equities

Introducing A New Risk Measure: The Price Of Volatile Stocks (PVS)

October 09, 2019

Economists like Keynes, Minsky, and Kindleberger have highlighted the importance of shifting perceptions of risk in driving markets and the economy. When…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth FX Global

A Trading Model For Currencies Using Growth

October 09, 2019

Currency markets often confound investors. Unlike equities or bonds, they are a long-short market, so if you buy one currency – say…

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics UK

Cameron’s Referendum (Talking Politics, 50 min listen)

October 08, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Following the publication of David Cameron’s memoirs, this podcast takes a step back…

In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

Don’t Fear the Repo (Grant’s Current Yield, 25 min listen)

October 08, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) George Selgin from the Cato Institute reviews the recent repo rate surge and…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

Howard Marks on Mastering the Cycle (Brewin Dolphin Podcast, 28 mins listen)

October 08, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, questions the recent longevity of the…

In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics

Global China’s Plan for Overseas Military Bases (The Brookings Cafeteria, 30 min listen)

October 08, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Leah Dreyfuss and Mara Karlin from Brookings introduce a paper…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Geopolitics US

Warren Piece (Eye on the Market from J.P. Morgan, 10 min listen)

October 08, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management,…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

Implosions (Slate Moey)

October 02, 2019

In: Hive Exclusives |

What’s the Macro Hive Risk Barometer Telling Us? (1 min read)

September 26, 2019

The past few weeks have been replete with drama – oil price surges, repo market disruptions, and even US Presidential impeachment inquiries. Stock markets…

Trump Impeachment

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

Two Ways Impeachment Could Hurt Equity and Risk Markets

September 25, 2019

It’s official. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has formally announced an investigation of President Trump. This is in response to conversations the US president…

In: Deep Dives | Asia China Economic Growth

What’s Wrong with Chinese GDP Data?

September 25, 2019

Scepticism has always surrounded Chinese growth data, especially its GDP statistics. The data is released extremely quickly after the end of a…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

What Businesses Can Learn from Ancient Archaeology (Bloomberg Markets Odd Lots, 44 min listen)

September 24, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A fascinating interview with Vanderbilt University archaeologist Arthur Demarest on parallels between civilisation…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities FX Rates US

‎Hot Topic #3 Alex Gurevich: Follow-up from the Grant Williams Interview (Macro Voices, 24 min listen)

September 24, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Gurevich believes that it’s an urban legend that gold and the dollar are…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology US

‎Businessweek Extra – Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman (Bloomberg Businessweek, 28 min listen)

September 24, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast, Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of private equity firm Blackstone, discusses his…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Rates US

Two for the Price of One (Grant’s Current Yield Podcast, 30 min listen)

September 24, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, podcast anchor Jim Bianco and his crew investigate last week’s…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Sustainability & Social Issues

Climate Change and Corporates: Past the Tipping Point with Customers and Stock Markets (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research, 13 min listen)

September 24, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Deutsche Bank used artificial intelligence to detect whether being environmentally…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

Top Picks: Markets and Investing

September 20, 2019

21st April How U shaped recovery will reliquify the markets and how JP is allocating asset A Phased Market Recovery as Liquidity…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

Top Picks: Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 19, 2019

21st April No full fletch defaults and how interest will remain lower for longer WHAT CDS MARKETS ARE DISCOUNTING (Variant Perception, 1…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

Top Picks: Fiscal Policy & Inequality

September 18, 2019

21st April Three ways on how Fiscal Policy can help tackle coronavirus recession and how there is inequality even in illness The…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Emerging Markets

Dr. Anas Alhajji: Oil Market Update (Macro Voices, 27 min listen)

September 17, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, energy markets expert Dr. Anas Alhajji interprets recent structural changes…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities FX Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

Louis-Vincent Gave: Last Week’s Dislocation Between Value and Growth (Macro Voices, 18 min listen)

September 17, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) CEO of Gavekal Research, Louis-Vincent Gave sees a massive outperformance of growth stocks,…

Money Transfer

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy Equities US

The “Liquification” Of Private Markets Is Underway (Bloomberg Markets, P&L)

September 17, 2019

In this wide-ranging episode, Christopher Wolfe from First Republic Private Wealth Management talks about how equities in the US public market…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

Narrative Economics (LSE Public Lectures and Events, 78 min listen)

September 17, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Robert Shiller, a leading economist and Nobel Laureate, introduces his incoming book and suggests…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Rates US

The Debt that Never Dies (The Indicator From Planet Money, 9 min listen)

September 17, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Bloomberg Journalist Tracey Alloway discusses a secret weapon that the US might deploy…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Three Thoughts on the Oil Spike

September 17, 2019

Oil prices have jumped significantly since the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities. But markets are so far taking a sanguine view of the moves and appear to be pricing the spike as temporary. Here are three other points to note:…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

Top Picks: Growth & Labour Market

September 16, 2019

21st April Global labour market in grim condition Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View (NBER, 6-page read) Study finds…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

Top Picks: Politics

September 15, 2019

21st April Politically crisis by the end of 2020 and how growth in trade reduces the probability of conflicts Preparing for the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

Top Picks: Data, Models and Market Plumbing

September 14, 2019

21st April How space can provide useful hints and what is the forecast for the 2020 Presidential election Monitoring the COVID-19 Crisis…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China & Hong Kong

Top Picks: China

September 13, 2019

21st April China needs to look inwards and how blame game will be detrimental for the recovery from the crisis Depression, and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

Top Picks: Inflation and Long-Term Policy

September 13, 2019

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth

The Post-Globalisation Economic Model

September 11, 2019

Harvard economist Dani Rodrik was one of the earliest sceptics of globalisation. He’s best known for coining his ‘trilemma’ for the world economy, which he stated as:…

Money Magnet

In: Deep Dives | Bonds Commodities Credit Equities

Factor Premia: The Best Long-Term Investment Strategy?

September 11, 2019

The holy grail of financial market investing is to find investment or trading rules that consistently make money over time….

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

Juliette Declercq: What to Expect From the ECB on Thursday (Macro Voices, 16 min listen)

September 10, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In light of the incoming ECB meeting this Thursday, CEO of JDI Research…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation

Huw van Steenis On What Central Banks Will Do Next (Odd Lots, 32 min listen)

September 10, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Continuing the discussion on Central Banks, Huw van Steenis, ex senior adviser to…

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics UK

Is It Legal? (Talking Politics, 47 min listen)

September 10, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Cambridge University Professors Helen Thompson and Kenneth Armstrong share their…

In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets US

Trade Talks Episode 99: The Surprising Story of the US Trade Deficit with South Korea (Peterson Perspectives, 15 min listen)

September 10, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast discusses a paper by Kadee Russ, from the University of California…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy FX US

Gold’s Rise has Just Begun (Macro Voices, 87 min listen)

September 10, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management Grant William argues that outlook for gold…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics

Why iPhones Make President Trump Angry

September 10, 2019

Later today, Apple will be releasing the details of its new iPhone, likely to be the iPhone 11. So expect more cameras, faster chips and new colours…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

What Investors Are Thinking: The August Scan

September 05, 2019

August was a tumultuous month for markets. There was panic around yield curve inversions, fears of an escalating…

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe FX Growth & Labour Market

Riksbank Set To Support a Weaker SEK, Steeper Curves (Macro Strategy Views, 21 min listen)

September 03, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast the Chief Economist at Danske Bank, Michael Grahn, explains why…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities FX Geopolitics

Brexit Update: Constitutional Warfare (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research, 13 min listen)

September 03, 2019

 (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A comprehensive overview of the latest on Brexit by Deutsche Macro Strategist Oliver…

In: Podcast Playlists | Rates US

100-Year Bonds Could Alter How Rate Risk Is Traded (P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz, 32 min listen)

September 03, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets, explains the risk that comes…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar on the Future of Monetary Policy (Macro Voices, 62 min listen)

September 03, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A panel consisting of Chief Investment Strategist Peter Boockvar, Danielle Booth, and Patrick…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

What’s Next for Blockchain? (Techtrends, 20 min listen)

September 03, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) According to Christine Moy from J.P. Morgan’s centre of blockchain excellence, the bank…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX

It’s Not Just the Pound That Will Suffer

September 03, 2019

First it was the suspension of Parliament and the increased chances of a no-deal Brexit that hurt the pound. Now the possibility of a general election…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

My FT Op-Ed: Beware Pools of Liquidity: They Could be a Mirage

August 28, 2019

I wrote an op-ed for the FT on a topic that I feel is neglected by many. The FT link is here and the piece is presented below…

In: Hive Exclusives | US

My Five Takeways from the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium

August 28, 2019

The annual Jackson Hole gathering of leading Fed officials, international central bankers, and academics, always provides a snapshot of high profile thought on policy…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Growth & Labour Market Rates

Top of Mind: Dissecting the Market Disconnect (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, 22 min listen)

August 27, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius discuss what's causing the…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Rates US

Yield Curves Don’t Lie. But Central Bankers Sometimes Do. (Macro Voices, 28 min listen)

August 27, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast, Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra, discusses how…

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics

Sinking Jakarta is Test Case for Climate Retreat (Deep Dish on Global Affairs, 26 min listen)

August 27, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Professor Tom Pepinsky from Cornell University and the Brookings Institution…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy

A Friend of Mines: Asia’s Coal Habit (Economist radio, 23 min listen)

August 27, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) We have previously talked about the economics behind renewables and the rising appeal of their…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy

U.S. Pork Producers Are Forced Out of China-led Rally (P&L from Bloomberg Markets, 28 min listen)

August 27, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Christine McCracken, Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank examines the pork industry in China.…

Currencies

In: Hive Exclusives | FX

August Curse Hits FX Carry, So Watch Trade

August 22, 2019

FX carry trades are down almost 4% so far in August. This is their worst performance since last August…

USA vs EU Flags

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Europe

It’s Europe With The Recession Risk, Not The US

August 21, 2019

Despite all the talk of an imminent US recession, most estimates suggest US growth is comfortably in the 2% zone…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

He Begs to Differ (Grant’s Current Yield Podcast, 22 mins)

August 21, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics and an Adjunct Professor of Economics at…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market

Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Masters in Business, 75 mins)

August 21, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Danny Blanchflower, former Bank of England MPC member attempts to decipher the puzzle…

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market

Kashmir Is the 72-Year ‘Wound’ between India and Pakistan (Deep Dish on Global Affairs, 29 mins)

August 21, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) We recently observed Prime Minister Modi and his government’s historic announcement to alter…

In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Growth & Labour Market

Chinese Interests and Policies in the Middle East: A Conversation with Jon Alterman (Economics – Audio, 25 mins

August 21, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Dr Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

The Future of News (Podzept with Deutsche Bank Research, 14 mins)

August 21, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In an age of information overload, the future of news and its consumption…

Jerome Powell

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds

Can Fed Turn Bonds Yields At Jackson Hole?

August 15, 2019

Bond yields across the world are falling to record lows. US 30 year treasury yields are at their all-time lows and flirting with the 2% threshold…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

The Myth of Meritocracy (Weekly Economics Podcast, 29 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) With Boris Johnson making the 20th Prime Minister to have attended Eton (considered the…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

How Robots Will Feed Our On-Demand Culture (The Future of Everything by the WSJ, 14 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nuro is a start-up aiming to bring autonomous vehicles into home delivery, and…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy

Peak Energy, Peak Oil, and the Rise of Renewables: An Executive’s Guide to the Global Energy System (The McKinsey Podcast, 31 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast continues the discussion around oil that we initiated last week, with McKinsey…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

More Fed Rate Cuts Will Help EM Assets (P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz, 31 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Eric Stein, Co-Director of Global Fixed Income at Eaton Vance, says the overall…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy

Billionaire Ken Fisher on Investing Principles (We Study Billionaires – The Investors Podcast, 35 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) An insightful interview with Ken Fisher who talks about fostering the $100bn megafund,…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Investment Strategy

Businessweek Extra – Hans Morris (Bloomberg Businessweek, 23 min listen)

August 07, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Hans Morris, the founder of Venture Capital fund Nyca Partners, discusses how the…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy Rates

Top of the Morning: ‘Assessing stock-bond portfolios’ (UBS On-Air, 14 min listen)

August 07, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A simple 60/40 portfolio holding consisting of S&P500 equity and US government bonds…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics

Talking Politics Guide to … The Chinese Communist Party (Talking Politics, 28 min listen)

August 07, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In 2021 the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate its 100th anniversary, enjoying the…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Rates US

The Trade War and the Fed, with Adam Posen (Trade Talks, 20 min listen)

August 07, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) On Wednesday the Fed cut interest rates 25bps for the first time in…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Rates US

Juliette Declercq: Powell should be fired! (Macro Voices, 14 min listen)

August 07, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, considers Powell’s 25bps cut last week…

Man running on coins

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

What Investors Are Thinking: The July Scan

August 01, 2019

The worsening European picture and the Fed’s ‘hawkish’ cut dominated July. Weak European growth and inflation data saw the ECB pivot to dovishness…

Boris and Trump

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Politics & Geopolitics

Boris’s Trumpian Pounding

July 30, 2019

‘The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it’ and ‘know when to walk away from the table’ …

In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Growth & Labour Market US

Could A Wealth Tax Work? (Planet Money, 22 min listen)

July 30, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Last week, we discussed the severely widening gap in US inequality . The data…

In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

The Lurking Debt Disaster behind India’s Tallest Tower (FT News in Focus, 7 min listen)

July 30, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Palais Royale. It was meant to be a luxury residential tower at the…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

The Secret History of the Future: Meat and Potatoes (The Economist Radio, 36 min listen)

July 30, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Mass production of meat is devastating the environment. It uses vast amounts of…

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US

Michael Swaine on the ‘China is Not an Enemy’ Open Letter (Sinica Podcast, 62 min listen)

July 29, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) It’s evident that under Trump, US policy towards China has devolved into a…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

Ride Hailing, Electric Scooters, Even Flying Cars – What’s Next for the Mobility Market? (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, 23 min listen)

July 29, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) If you are anything like the average American, your car sits idle most…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

Women, Men, and Hedge Funds (The Indicator, 11 min listen)

July 23, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A famous study by Hedge Fund Research Inc that covered hedge fund performance…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US

Tyler Cowen on the Culture of Big Business (Macro Musings, 58 min listen)

July 23, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Against recent attacks from the political left and right, widely followed US economist…

In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Investment Strategy

Andre Bourbonnais – Blackrock Long-Term Private Capital (Capital Allocators, 42 min listen)

July 23, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Andre Bourbonnais is the global head of Blackrock’s new long-term capital fund. In…

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe

Germany’s von der Leyen Takes Up Key Leadership Role (FT News in Focus, 12 min listen)

July 23, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Ursula von der Leyen will replace Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission (EC) President…

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics UK

The Making of Boris Johnson (The Daily, 28 min listen)

July 23, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) An American, left wing take on Boris Johnson, the soon-to-be UK Prime Minister.…

Investor ignoring report cartoon

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

Global Investors Shun US Equities

July 18, 2019

One of the most remarkable features of the post-2008 financial market regime has been the stellar performance of US equities compared to the rest of the world…

£1 coin

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Politics & Geopolitics

Political Turbulence To Keep Pound Down

July 17, 2019

The pound has had a torrid time over the past three months. It’s been the worst performing currency among G10 and the major EM currencies…

In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Rates US

TINA’s Back in Town? (What Goes Up, 36 min listen)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) TINA, or ‘There Is No Alternative’, to lower rates is the theme of…

In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US

Behind Barr (The Information’s 411, 30 min listen)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) US Attorney General William Barr has the final say in whether or not…

In: Podcast Playlists | FX US

Joe Gagnon on Currency Manipulation, Trade Imbalances, and Libra (Macro Musings with David Beckworth, 53 min listen)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A weak dollar policy has entered US political discourse. First it was President Trump,…

In: Podcast Playlists | Credit Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Food Fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan Market (Eye on the Market by J.P. Morgan, 9 min listen)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) It’s now certain that a Fed cut is coming soon, but what’s driving…

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe

Bitcoin’s Energy Bill (The Indicator from Planet Money, 9 min listen)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Globally, Bitcoin miners use more electricity that the whole of Austria. Although the…

Ben Stokes and Johnny Bairstow

In: Hive Exclusives | FX

England Finally Win The World Cup – Pound To Rally?

July 15, 2019

Football in 1966, rugby in 2003, and now cricket in 2019: at last England can add another year to its rather barren hall of fame with Sunday’s thrilling victory in the World Cup finals…

Deutsche Bank

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

The Real Meaning Of Deutsche Bank’s Decline

July 11, 2019

Having worked at Deutsche Bank for many years, I’m always tuned in to stories on it. And this week has been replete with them…

Central Banks

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Should Central Bankers Follow The Two-Century Inflation Target?

July 10, 2019

This year, headline inflation has averaged 1.7% in the US, 1.4% in the Euro-area, and 0.5% in Japan. Therefore, years after the financial crisis…

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics

“How will Christine Lagarde lead the European Central Bank?”(The Current by Brookings Institution, 11 min listen)

July 09, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Perhaps the most insightful piece currently out there discussing the probable impact of…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

 “A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises” (New Books in Economics, 37 min listen)

July 09, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Over the past 200 years, the top 6 countries in the World (accounting…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

“How China Escaped the Poverty Trap” (New Books in Economics, 41 min listen)

July 08, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Conventional economic development theory gets stuck in circular reasoning: good institutions generate economic…

Investor Analysis

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

What Investors Are Thinking: The June Scan

July 03, 2019

The top story of June was easily the Fed pivot to dovishness. It outshone even the ‘will he/won’t he’ Trump trade war with China…

In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

Nobel Perspectives: Can people be nudged into better behaviour? (Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS, 15 min listen)

July 02, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) First some background on the history of behavioural economics. Then Nobel Prize winning…

In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market

Jeffry Frieden on the Rise of Populism, Labor Mobility, and the Eurozone (Macro Musings, 53 min listen)

July 02, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A wide ranging interview of Jeffry Frieden, Professor of Government at Harvard University,…

In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

Andrew Ang Discusses Asset Management (Masters in Business, 1hr 6 min listen)

July 02, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Andrew Ang leads US asset manager Blackrock’s factor-based strategies group. At 8 minutes…

In: Podcast Playlists | Other

5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

June 25, 2019

State of the global economy (ANU Crawford Leadership Forum, 1hr 23min). Several good talks on at the forum. RBA governor Lowe speaks between…

In: Podcast Playlists | Other

5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

June 18, 2019

I’ve paired these podcasts to provide context for the recent HK protests. The first, Why Hong Kong Is Still Protesting (The Daily,…

US Growth

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

US Growth In Good Zone For Equities

June 13, 2019

Over the past week, we’ve seen a raft of US activity data for May. Manufacturing PMIs surveys (ISM and Markit) were weak…

US Dollar

In: Hive Exclusives | FX

FX Carry Is Back

June 12, 2019

As the Fed capitulates on its hiking cycle, it joins other central banks like the ECB and BoJ in dovish territory. On top of that, the pessimism…

In: Podcast Playlists | Other

5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

June 11, 2019

An Intra-West Debate (Exponent, 55mins). I’m a big fan of the Taiwan-based Ben Thompson. He’s a techie and on this podcast, he…

In: Podcast Playlists | Other

5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

June 06, 2019

Inside the Investment Committee: The 2016 big short in fixed income (Macro Voices, 62 mins). Good review of 2016 rates markets. On…

In: Podcast Playlists | Other

Monday 3rd June

June 03, 2019

President Trump’s Move Against Huawei Is A Big Deal (31 mins,  Bloomberg Odd Lots, 3 June) Gavekal Dragonomics' Dan Wang describes the centrality…

Climate Change

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change

Climate Cancer Is Not Going Away

June 03, 2019

Last weekend saw the UK’s hottest day of the year, and there is a chance that the coming summer could even see new records being broken…

Trade Area

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Europe

Euro-area Too Dependent On World Trade

May 31, 2019

The big problem for the Euro-area is that it is geared primarily to international trade. And in a world of escalating trade…

Silver lining

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds EM US

Gloomy US Yields, Silver Lining for US Stocks

May 28, 2019

Yields have tumbled from their November 2018 peak of around 3.25% to a paltry 2.3% in recent weeks. The bulk of the…

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