Bilal Hafeez

Macro Hive Author

If you would like to connect and contact the author,
please email [email protected]
SPECIALITY: Global Macro, FX, Emerging Markets,

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive.

He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

MY ARTICLES


  • In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

    September 28, 2020

    We are back with our smart investor survey. The respondents are mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Key Events: Week Of 28 September

    September 25, 2020

    Monetary Policy The plethora of Fedspeak continues with Williams and Clarida among the scheduled speakers over the coming week. ECB officials will…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | FX US

    How Far Could US Stocks Fall?

    September 22, 2020

    Global stocks have tumbled in recent days given a combination of fears over a second COVID wave in Europe, lingering disappointment over…

  • Courtroom

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

    Will The Supreme Court Race Disrupt Biden’s Lead?

    September 21, 2020

    The recent death of liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has shifted political attention to who will pick the next Supreme Court…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Key Events

    September 21, 2020

    Monetary Policy After a flurry of major DM central bank meetings last week, this week is quiet in terms policy meetings. There…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

    What Are The Forecasts For A Trump Win?

    September 15, 2020

    A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump.…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro US

    Key Events

    September 14, 2020

    Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed meeting is the highlight of the week with Chair Powell set to give details on the shift to…

  • US Election

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

    Will The FBI Interfere In The US Elections Again?

    September 08, 2020

    In an era of information overload, it is surprising that there are still things that remain undiscussed. Take the upcoming US elections…

  • Bitcoin and Equities

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities US

    Did Bitcoin, Rather Than Softbank, Lead The US Stock Sell-off?

    September 07, 2020

    It is now widely known that Softbank had engaged in significant buying of US tech stocks through options. But it was already…

  • Equity Sell-off

    In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

    5 Things You Need To Know About The US Stocks Collapse

    September 04, 2020

    US equities finally showed some weakness. The S&P500 fell 3.5% on Thursday, while the NASDAQ fell 5%. Here are five things you…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | US

    Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump

    August 26, 2020

    Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

    Korean FX Markets To Ignore COVID Second Wave

    August 20, 2020

    USD/KRW has stabilised around 1185 – its post-COVID lows – in recent weeks. This comes even as Korea faces a second wave…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities

    Equities Care About Vaccines, Not Second Waves

    August 13, 2020

    Numerous countries are experiencing second waves of COVID-19 infections – not that you would know from their equity market performance. Take the…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Dr Reza Baqir

    August 11, 2020

    We were delighted to have serving Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (2019-current) and 18-year veteran of the IMF Dr Reza…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

    Indian Rupee Weakness Expected

    August 06, 2020

    USD/INR has struggled to break below 74.50 over the past month even as the dollar (DXY) has weakened. This reflects a broader…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

    Taiwan Dollar Strength Could Continue

    August 06, 2020

    The Taiwan dollar (TWD) has recently started to show some strength – it was up almost 1% against the dollar in the…

  • China Growth

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US

    China Growth Tracker – Still Strong Even With More US-China Tensions

    July 23, 2020

    We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly…

  • Asia FX Momentum

    In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

    How Asia FX Futures Can Improve FX Momentum Strategy Performance

    July 20, 2020

    G10 FX momentum strategies have delivered poor returns over the past decade.Part of this could be due to a lack of diversification;…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

    July 16, 2020

    We recently surveyed our Macro Hive network. The respondents were mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy and…

  • In: Deep Dives | Emerging Markets FX

    The Diversification Benefits Of Asia FX Futures

    July 15, 2020

    ‘Emerging’ Asia economies are now as large as advanced economies, yet investors continue to show bias towards trading developed markets.At the same…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Raghuram Rajan

    July 14, 2020

    We were delighted to have former RBI governor (2013-2016) and former IMF chief economist (2003-2006) Raghuram Rajan as our podcast guest last…

  • Iron Ore China

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Commodities & Energy Economics Growth & Labour Market

    Using Iron Ore To Track China Growth

    July 14, 2020

    [Bullish Equities, Bullish Euro] China now competes with the US as a key driver of global growth. Yet the quality of Chinese…

  • Research

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

    How The COVID-19 Pandemic Will Disrupt Research

    June 12, 2020

    The investment bank or sell-side financial sector has experienced major shocks in recent decades. Some have been positive, like the repeal of US…

  • No Recession

    In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

    There Is No Recession

    June 11, 2020

    The IMF says it’s the worst recession since the Great Depression. No, the worst in 300 years, says the Bank of England. And now this week…

  • George Flyod

    In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues US

    Whose Lives Matter

    June 10, 2020

    Yellow people. Red people. Black people. Brown people. White people. In theory, we believe everyone’s lives matter equally…

  • In: Hive Exclusives |

    Macro Hive’s One-year Anniversary: 5 Lessons We Have Learned Running A Start-up

    June 08, 2020

    One year ago, Macro Hive came into existence as we sent out our first email. It contained two notes from me – one on climate change, another on…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Geopolitics

    Markets Ignoring Protests, But Trump Shouldn’t

    June 04, 2020

    Unrest. Looting. Rebellion. Riots. All these terms and many more dominate news headlines as protests erupt across the US…

  • Singapore FX

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    Asia FX Insights

    June 02, 2020

    The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    Asia FX Update: Watch INR

    May 14, 2020

    Markets are starting to come to terms with a COVID world and Asia FX is no different. After tumbling in March, most Asia FX stabilised over…

  • Social Distancing Measures

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

    Which Countries’ Populations Are Following Lockdown Rules?

    May 07, 2020

    We look at which countries have the strictest lockdowns, and using mobility data we track which countries have followed the lockdowns most closely…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Economics Emerging Markets Equities Investment Strategy US

    Inaugural Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

    May 05, 2020

    US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…

  • Earth COVID

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

    World Before COVID, World After COVID

    April 30, 2020

    We’re in the fog of COVID, and it would be tempting to extrapolate our lockdown lifestyles into the post-COVID world. However…

  • COVID Deaths per Age

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

    Does Age Explain COVID Deaths Across Countries?

    April 23, 2020

    Age is one of the clearest contributing factors to COVID fatalities. Study after study is finding that the case fatality rate (CFR) for the elderly is much…

  • COVID Reporting

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    Are Deaths Being Under-reported?

    April 16, 2020

    While the number of COVID cases being reported by countries depends as much on the scale of testing than the level of infections, the number of…

  • COVID Unknown

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    COVID-19 Fog Of War: 3 Knowns, 3 Unknowns

    April 16, 2020

    US equities capture the mood of investors well. We saw equities collapse 35% over four weeks from late February, then a 25% rally from late March until…

  • Emerging Markets

    In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Emerging Markets Are Not Out of the Woods Yet

    April 09, 2020

    The past week or so saw a recovery in almost all risk markets, including emerging markets (EM). So is all well in EM? We’d be more cautious. For one,…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

    Where Are The Global COVID Hotspots?

    April 09, 2020

    Whether it’s confirmed cases, deaths, testing, or ICU beds, we’re inundated with data on COVID-19. In fact, it’s hard to keep track of which countries…

  • In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation

    What Natural Disasters Can Tell Us About The Impact Of COVID On Inflation

    April 08, 2020

    There’s been a number of recent papers on the impact of pandemics on economies. A Fed paper looks directly at pandemics going back…

  • USD Disinflation

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Are We Underestimating Disinflation?

    April 02, 2020

    Despite many headline-grabbing downward revisions to US growth, most economists are not expecting inflation to fall by much. The consensus for core…

  • Winston Churchill in Power

    In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues UK

    Will Boris Fail In His Churchillian Moment?

    March 19, 2020

    The UK appears to be on a war footing. The enemy is an invisible one, the COVID-19 coronavirus. ‘We must act like any wartime government’, said…

  • US Bear Market

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US

    How Bearish Are Investors On US Growth?

    March 18, 2020

    Recent yield curve steepening has actually reduced the odds of a recession to 12% (Chart 1). This Fed model could well reflect a longer-term view that…

  • US Recession Trump

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Fed’s Panic Cut Signals US Recession Is Here

    March 16, 2020

    We’ve been arguing that COVID should trigger a US recession and now it seems the Fed is worried too. It’s dramatic 100bps cut yesterday brings interest…

  • Pandemic Problems

    In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues

    Pandemics And Wars Always Find People Equally Unprepared

    March 12, 2020

    “Public opinion is sacred: no panic, above all no panic”. “There have been as many plagues in the world as there have been wars, yet plagues and wars…

  • Machine Learning Predicting Crises

    In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    Can Machine Learning Help Predict Crises?

    March 04, 2020

    Forecasting financial crises is difficult. The data comprises a limited set of observed instances and signals a warning only when it is already too late…

  • Mike Bloomberg Iowa

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

    What Happened To Mike Bloomberg?

    February 20, 2020

    Investors love him, polls were surging in his favour, and his ad spending was off the charts. Yet, by all accounts, Democratic presidential hopeful…

  • Red Roses

    In: Hive Exclusives | Equities FX Geopolitics Sustainability & Social Issues US

    7 Charts To Love On Valentine’s Day

    February 14, 2020

    It’s easy to paint gloomy pictures of the world whether looking at market valuations, climate change or health scares. However, not all is lost,…

  • Stock Market Analysis

    In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Sustainability & Social Issues

    How Carbon Risk Is Impacting Stock Returns

    February 03, 2020

    Scientific consensus has long been reached on a link between human activities and climate change. But now investors have taken notice, and…

  • Bernie Sanders

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Could Bernie Sanders Upset Markets?

    January 30, 2020

    The US presidential election season will start proper next Monday when the first nominating vote for the Democrat candidate will take place…

  • UK Flag

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

    4 Macro Things You Didn’t Know About The UK

    January 23, 2020

    While most are focused on UK data in the short-term to gauge whether the Bank of England will cut rates next week, we shouldn’t lose sight of…

  • Investor Forecast

    In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure FX

    Which FX Valuation Models Work Best?

    January 22, 2020

    While most markets like equities and bonds have well-established valuation models, FX markets often baffle people. What anchors the value of a currency?

  • Apple Logo

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology

    2020 Grey Swan: Apple Buys Disney

    January 09, 2020

    Apple’s earnings have been stagnating in recent years (Chart 1). They are reliant on iPhone sales and upgrades in a maturing smartphone market…

  • US Flag

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    2020 Grey Swan: US Introduces Capital Controls

    January 09, 2020

    While everyone has been talking about trade wars, the next battle may be fought over capital flows. Under President Trump, the US has battled…

  • Multiple Currencies

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    Which Currencies Are Expected To Gain The Most In 2020?

    January 09, 2020

    Looking at the consensus of FX analysts, the biggest gains* in the G10 against the dollar are expected to be the Norwegian krone (+3%) and the pound (+2%), while…

  • Global Outlook

    In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Fiscal Policy & Inequality Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Your Guide To The 46 Macro Events That Matter In 2020

    January 09, 2020

    We’ve finally entered a decade we can give a proper name to – the twenties. And we’ll soon see whether or not it will be roaring because…

  • market volatility political geopolitics

    In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Geopolitics Investment Strategy

    A New Way of Measuring Policy Uncertainty: The Volatility Smile-Based Uncertainty (VSU) Index

    January 09, 2020

  • US Flag

    In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US

    Louis Hyman, “Temp: How American Work, American Business, And The American Dream Became Temporary” (New Books In Economics)

    December 27, 2019

    Louis Hyman, Professor of History at Cornell University and ex-McKinsey, unravels the decline of steady work in his latest book, Temp…

  • Trends of 2010

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues

    Underrated Trends Of The 2010s (The Indicator From Planet Money)

    December 27, 2019

    Cardiff Garcia and Stacey Vanek Smith, hosts of “Planet Money” reflect upon the decade of the 2010’s and presents 3 critical trends…

  • Impeachment

    In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US

    America’s Impeachment Struggle | Noah Feldman (Opinion Has It)

    December 27, 2019

    Noah Feldman, an American Professor of Law at Harvard Law School presents insights on the case for impeachment of Donald J. Trump:…

  • Ash Carter

    In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

    Ash Carter (Talks at GS)

    December 27, 2019

    Former US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter sheds light on key issues in US foreign policy and the role of technology and innovation…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Juliette Declercq: Inflations Is Not In The Cards (Macro Voices)

    December 27, 2019

    Juliette Declercq decodes the macro outlook and translates that view into actionable trading strategies:…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Louis-Vincent Gave: Tech Stocks Are At The Same % Of SPX Composition As The 1999 High (Macro Voices)

    December 20, 2019

    CEO of Gavekal Research, Louis-Vincent, discusses the S&P 500 Christmas Rally, tech companies’ index composition, the trade war, the return of inflation,…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy

    A Stock Picker’s Guide To 2020 (The BID)

    December 20, 2019

    Tony DeSpirito, Managing Director and Director of Investments at BlackRock discusses his outlook for stocks in 2020…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

    Is Sustainable Finance the Next Big Commercial Opportunity? (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs)

    December 20, 2019

    John Goldstein, head of Goldman Sachs’ Sustainable Finance Group, shares valuable insights and operational details…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Billionaire Jim Simons’ Quant Revolution w/ Gregory Zuckerman (We Study Billionaires – The Investor’s Podcast Network)

    December 20, 2019

    In an interview for The Investor’s Podcast, bestselling author Gregory Zuckerman looks at the lifetime achievements of the founder of Renaissance Technologies, Jim Simons:…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Economics

    Global Economic Update With Torsten Slok (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research)

    December 20, 2019

    Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, concisely articulates the macro drivers impacting the markets today and the things to watch in 2020…

  • UK Parliament

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    3 Non-Brexit Macro Shocks the New UK Government Could Face in Its First Term

    December 19, 2019

    With the large Conservative majority in government, both UK markets and the economy are likely to enter a honeymoon period in the months ahead…

  • Podcast Awards

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

    Macro Hive: Top Macro Podcasters Of 2019

    December 19, 2019

    Welcome to Macro Hive’s Podcast Awards for 2019. We find that podcasts are fast becoming a top medium for timely macro insights…

  • Hand shake

    In: Deep Dives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

    How Bromance Explains The Gender Pay Gap

    December 18, 2019

    Numerous theories claim to explain the gender gaps in pay and promotions. But one of the most compelling is the ‘the old boys’ club’…

  • Retail Investing

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Picking 401(k) Funds Can Be as Easy as ABC, and That’s Bad (WSJ Your Money Briefing)

    December 13, 2019

    Wall Street contributor Daisy Maxey reveals several behavioural biases found to be associated with investors’ fund selection process:…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Economics Sustainability & Social Issues US

    X-Prize Founder Peter Diamandis & Steven Kotler on the Speed of Technology (Business Podcast)

    December 13, 2019

    Peter Diamandis, Founder and Executive Chairman of X-Prize Foundation and Harvard Professor Steven Kotler discuss their new book…

  • Canadian Flag

    In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market

    Oil Be Going: Canada’s Separatist West (The Economist)

    December 13, 2019

    The Economist covers Wexit (Quebec breaking away) in Canada, big data startups in climate change, and how the increased numbers of billionaires in Sweden…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Credit Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    How Nearly Two Decades of Fed Policy Contributed to Bubbles, Busts, and a Boom in Debt (Bloomberg Market, Odd Lots)

    December 13, 2019

    Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, Managing Director of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, explains how the Fed’s goal of inflation targeting is responsible for high leverage…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Jim Bianco on Negative Interest Rates, Low Inflation, and Yield Curve Expansion (Macro Musings)

    December 13, 2019

    Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, discusses Fed policy and negative interest rates. $12.5 trillion in negative interest rate assets, all of which originate from continental Europe and Japan…

  • Boris Johnson

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics UK

    My 8 Takeaways From The UK Election Result

    December 13, 2019

    The results are in and it looks like the Conservative party will have an 80-seat majority. This is much more than polling had suggested…

  • Grey Black Swan

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Equities FX Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    The Macro Hive 10 Grey Swans For 2020

    December 09, 2019

    Black swan events are the unknown unknowns that no one can even envisage, let alone predict. But their close cousin – grey swans – can enter our imaginations…

  • Energy Market

    In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

    Long-Term Investment Theme: the Energy Transition (UBS On Air)

    December 05, 2019

    UBS energy experts analyse long term investment themes around energy transition and the opportunities it presents for investors…

  • China Bond Market

    In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Rates

    How Bond Defaults Are Changing China’s Markets (Bloomberg Markets Odd Lots)

    December 05, 2019

    Jun Pan, Professor of Finance at Jiao Tong University, has a flair for insightful communicaton and is an expert researcher of Chinese corporate bond markets…

  • China

    In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Growth & Labour Market

    China’s Consumer Decade (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research)

    December 05, 2019

    Yi Xiong, China Economist at Deutsche Bank analyses the Chinese economy over the next decade, highlighting the crucial role of consumption…

  • Global Economic Growth

    In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

    Insights from Blackstone’s Private Equity Portfolio (Blackstone Podcast)

    December 05, 2019

    Blackstone conducts a survey of private equity companies in their portfolio, focusing on challenges and opportunities CEOs are facing. Prakash Melwani…

  • Banks

    In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Risks Mount In European Banks, EBA Warns (FT Banking Weekly)

    December 05, 2019

    Samantha Gross, Fellow at Brooking institute, explains why Saudi Aramco’s IPO did not get listed internationally as initially planned but was instead listed locally in Riyadh…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    Wow… What A Year For FX Carry Trades

    December 05, 2019

    If you looked only at the dollar and FX volatility, 2019 may have seemed a dull year. The dollar is up, but it’s been a choppy and modest ascent…

  • In: Deep Dives | Sustainability & Social Issues

    Climate Change Hits Property Prices

    December 04, 2019

    One of the clearest effects of climate change is sea level rise (SLR). The scientific community expects a global average SLR of around 3-6 ft. over the next century…

  • In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Equities

    How TV Affects Traders

    December 03, 2019

    You’d think traders are so focused on making money they pay little attention to TV. But that’s not the conclusion of Joel Peress and Daniel Schmidt in…

  • In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Growth & Labour Market

    College-Educated Workers, AI Is Coming For You

    December 02, 2019

    Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are eliciting much fear from society, especially considering the potential impact on the workplace…

  • Donald Trump

    In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

    Who’s Got The Jobs Under Trump?

    December 02, 2019

    This Friday we get the US employment data. We should see a pickup in payroll growth after two months of decline…

  • Aramco IPO Oil

    In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy

    Saudi Arabia’s IPO Fail? (NPR)

    November 28, 2019

    Samantha Gross, Fellow at Brooking institute, explains why Saudi Aramco’s IPO did not get listed…

  • Populism

    In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics

    Ian Bremmer on Populism (Talks at GS)

    November 28, 2019

    Geopolitical expert and Eurasia Group president, Ian Bremmer, discusses the drivers behind populism…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Equities

    Reviewing the Fed’s Financial Stability Report (JP Morgan Economic)

    November 28, 2019

    Jim Glassman, Head Economist at JP Morgan Commercial Bank, reviews four financial vulnerabilities from the Fed’s report…

  • Economic Policy in a World

    In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Mervyn King: Economic Policy in a World Turned Upside Down (IMF Podcasts)

    November 28, 2019

    Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, outlines the current state of global growth. He warns that…

  • Stock Investment Strategy

    In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    How Should I Be Positioned? (UBS on Air)

    November 28, 2019

    Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation at UBS, and John Tousley, Head of Global Markets Strategy at Goldman Sachs…

  • Thanksgiving

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics Equities Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy

    8 Charts To Give Thanks For

    November 25, 2019

    This week will see Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. A holiday which brings families together, celebrates harmony and recognises the bounty of harvest…

  • Billionaire

    In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    The Billionaire Effect (The Bulletin with UBS)

    November 21, 2019

    Experts from UBS and PWC discuss their annual billionaire report and cite the existence of the “Billionaire Effect”…

  • Saving money

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    The Paradox Of Saving: Individual Rationality, Macroeconomic Headache (BNP Macro Waves)

    November 21, 2019

    William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, explains how low or negative rates increases saving rather than consumption, which slows economic growth…

  • great wall china

    In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

    Rural China: The Next Half-Billion (Investec Asset Management)

    November 21, 2019

    Professor Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University argues that the relationship between elections and the economy is changing. Democrats and Republicans…

  • data politics

    In: Podcast Playlists | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Geopolitics

    How Does The Economy Influence Voters? (The Indicator from Planet Money)

    November 21, 2019

    Professor Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University argues that the relationship between elections and the economy is changing…

  • Protecting Money Umbrella

    In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Growth & Labour Market

    Breaking Down The Economic Impact of Capex (JP Morgan Economic Take)

    November 21, 2019

    JPMorgan’s Head Economist Jim Glassman delves into the perceived slump in capex this year. He finds that decline is not due to trade war dynamic…

  • In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    How to Become a Superforecaster

    November 20, 2019

    The talking heads on TV give such a convincing forecast it’s hard to doubt them sometimes. But try pinning them down to a specific time frame and discrete future event – now that’s next to impossible…

  • In: Deep Dives | Politics Sustainability & Social Issues

    Who Rules the World?

    November 20, 2019

    Elites. They’re all over the news these days. But who are they and what do we know about them? An excellent new study…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities Growth & Labour Market US

    3 Charts For The Week Ahead: US Flows / Euro Cars / Global PMIs

    November 18, 2019

    The big event for the week ahead is the release of the November PMIs. But there are few other useful releases too. Here are my three focuses…

  • United States Statue of Liberty

    In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

    Is Economic Orthodoxy Evolving? (Pitchfork Economics)

    November 15, 2019

    In this episode, University of Chicago finance professor Luigi Zingales discusses the impact of the ‘Chicago School’ of economic thinking on the US…

  • 3D Printer

    In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

    Will 3D Printing Increase Trade? (Peterson Perspectives)

    November 15, 2019

    This episode discusses how 3D printing can impact international trade. Many think trade is the ladder for economies to develop…

  • Mishtalk

    In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Mishtalk’s Mike Shedlock Podcast On Hedgeye

    November 15, 2019

    Mike “Mish” Shedlock is one of our top bloggers of 2019, so he is well worth listening to. In this podcast, he opines on several controversial topics…

  • Federal Reserve

    In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    Why the Repo Markets Went Crazy (Odd Lots, Bloomberg)

    November 15, 2019

    Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar, one of the leading experts on money markets, speaks on September’s repo market volatility…

  • Eugene Fama

    In: Podcast Playlists | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    MIB Live with Eugene Fama and David Booth (Masters in Business)

    November 15, 2019

    In a live panel podcast hosted at Chicago Booth, the “father of modern finance” Eugene Fama and the business school’s namesake David Booth share their…

  • Top Macro Bloggers

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

    Macro Hive: Top Macro Bloggers Of 2019

    November 13, 2019

    Welcome to the Macro Hive Blog Awards 2019. We thought it was time macro bloggers got their due recognition. So many great thinkers beaver away in forgotten corners of the economics and markets…

  • Data

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    3 Charts For The Week Ahead

    November 10, 2019

    Who’s in the Deflation Club? Already, we have China’s data for October, which showed surging headline inflation on higher pork prices, but…

  • Fishing for Yield

    In: Deep Dives | Credit Rates

    Government Yields Do Not Affect Corporate Bonds The Way You Think

    November 06, 2019

    In any given country, government bonds are thought to be safer than corporate ones. After all, governments have the ability to tax or even print money…

  • Bank Balance Sheet

    In: Deep Dives | Rates

    Bank Balance Sheets Predict Bond Returns

    November 06, 2019

    Investors often try to use flow and positioning data to forecast market returns, whether in bond, equity, or other asset markets…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    Alex Gurevich: Stop This Conversation and Pause This Interview, Go Buy Gold! (Macro Voices)

    November 05, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Alex Gurevich, Founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, gives his in-depth and insightful…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    How U.S. Yields Could Go Negative (What Goes Up)

    November 05, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Lauren Goodwin, a portfolio strategist from NY Life Investment Management, shares her bearish,…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Henry Curr on Inflation, the Philips Curve, and A New Monetarism (Macro Musings)

    November 05, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center is joined by Henry Curr, the economics…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

    Scott Kupor on VC funding (FT Tech Tonic)

    November 05, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Scott Kupor from Andreessen Horowitz talks about conditions needed for start-ups to grow,…

  • Services Trade

    In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

    Trade Talks 107: Making Services Trade Great (Peterson Perspectives)

    November 05, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This year’s World Trade Organisation report focuses on the trade of services and…

  • Halloween Macro

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities FX Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    11 Charts To Scare You This Halloween

    October 30, 2019

    It’s Halloween, so what better time to showcase some scary charts…

  • Ben Horowitz CEO

    In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    What You Do Is Who You Are (The Tim Ferris Show)

    October 29, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A fascinating conversation with Ben Horowitz, co-founder of VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, on…

  • fiscal policy spending

    In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

    How To Spend It (The Sound of Economics)

    October 29, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast discusses public finance. Is quantity more important than quality? Boris Cournede,…

  • populism

    In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics

    The Future of the Establishment (Project Syndicate)

    October 29, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Political Science professor Matthew Goodwin from the University of Kent discusses the recent…

  • Halloween Economics

    In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US

    Scary Stories from the Eek-conomy (The Indicator)

    October 29, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode of Halloween specials, ‘The Indicator’ asks economists, what scares them…

  • Global Growth Monetary Macro

    In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy

    UBS CIO Global Investment Forum: Macro Environment (UBS On-Air)

    October 29, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Elga Bartsch, Head of Research at Blackrock Investment Institute, shares her views on…

  • Boris Johnson Henry VIII Politics

    In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Geopolitics UK

    Boris Johnson Is Using The Henry VIII Playbook

    October 27, 2019

    Boris Johnson clearly sees himself as a modern day Winston Churchill. In his biography of the World War Two Prime Minister, Johnson…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    ECB Has Lost Credibility

    October 24, 2019

    The terminal decline in Euro-area growth appears to have stopped. The latest batch of European manufacturing PMIs show upticks for Germany and…

  • In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology

    8 Principles Of Spending Your Way To Happiness

    October 23, 2019

    Most of us think more about how to earn money than how to spend it. Implicit within this is the assumption that ‘the more money I earn, the…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market UK

    What Do We Know and What Should We Do About The Future of Work? (New Books in Economics)

    October 22, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Features Melanie Simms, Professor of Work and Employment at the University of Glasgow…

  • Asia growth emerging markets

    In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

    The McKinsey Podcast: The Future of Asia (McKinsey Institute)

    October 22, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Dives into the upcoming ‘Asian century’ – over half of the world’s GDP…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

    China vs. The U.S.: Trade War to Cold War? (Real Vision)

    October 22, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast interviews retired US General Robert Spalding, an ex-Defence Attaché in Beijing.…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Fran Kinniry Discusses Diversified Portfolios (Masters in Business)

    October 22, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Fran Kinniry Discusses Diversified Portfolios(Masters in Business, 75 mins) A wide-ranging interview of…

  • Quantitative Easing Helicopter Money

    In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    Frances Coppola on the Macroeconomics of Helicopter Drops (Macro Musings)

    October 22, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Frances Coppola on the Macroeconomics of Helicopter Drops (Macro Musings, 60 mins) Frances…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy

    What’s the Macro Hive Positioning Report Telling Us?

    October 16, 2019

    One of the biggest fears for investors is jumping onto crowded trades. With everyone positioned for the move, it makes it even harder for news…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

    Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (The Bulletin with UBS)

    October 15, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A panel of two of the co-authors of the UN SDG (Sutainable Development Goals)…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics UK

    Brexit: A European Odyssey (The Sound of Economics)

    October 15, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nicholas Barrett and Guntram Wolff discuss Brexit with Kalypso Nicolaïdis, based on her…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US

    Global Economic Update with Torsten Slok (Podzept with Deutsche Bank)

    October 15, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Recently in our curated content we discussed the healthy US labour market, especially…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Don’t Call it QE (What Goes Up)

    October 15, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Ben Emons from Medley Global Advisors and Luke Kawa from…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Why Governments Haven’t Learned The Lessons Of Japan (Odd Lots)

    October 15, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Richard Koo from Nomura Research Institute coined the concept of a balance Sheet recession,…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities Europe US

    Watch Earnings – Are US Stocks Still The Best Destination For Investors?

    October 15, 2019

    US Q3 earnings season has now started. JP Morgan and Citi have beaten expectations, while Goldman Sachs has disappointed. We’ll also see Netflix…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    What are J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs & Others Expecting In FX?

    October 10, 2019

    The dollar has performed well over the last three months. In fact, it has outperformed most currencies. The only exception in G10 is the yen, while currencies like…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities FX

    Macro Hive Risk Barometer Update: Avoiding ‘Risk Aversion’ For Now

    October 10, 2019

    We recently introduced our Risk Barometer. It uses risk measures across various markets to determine whether markets are in ‘risk aversion’ or…

  • In: Deep Dives | Equities Investment Strategy

    Introducing A New Risk Measure: The Price Of Volatile Stocks (PVS)

    October 09, 2019

    Economists like Keynes, Minsky, and Kindleberger have highlighted the importance of shifting perceptions of risk in driving markets and the economy. When…

  • In: Deep Dives | FX Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy

    A Trading Model For Currencies Using Growth

    October 09, 2019

    Currency markets often confound investors. Unlike equities or bonds, they are a long-short market, so if you buy one currency – say…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics UK

    Cameron’s Referendum (Talking Politics, 50 min listen)

    October 08, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Following the publication of David Cameron’s memoirs, this podcast takes a step back…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    Don’t Fear the Repo (Grant’s Current Yield, 25 min listen)

    October 08, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) George Selgin from the Cato Institute reviews the recent repo rate surge and…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    Howard Marks on Mastering the Cycle (Brewin Dolphin Podcast, 28 mins listen)

    October 08, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, questions the recent longevity of the…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics

    Global China’s Plan for Overseas Military Bases (The Brookings Cafeteria, 30 min listen)

    October 08, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Leah Dreyfuss and Mara Karlin from Brookings introduce a paper…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Geopolitics US

    Warren Piece (Eye on the Market from J.P. Morgan, 10 min listen)

    October 08, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management,…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Economics

    How Financial Repression in China Helped Cause the Trade Wars (Odd Lots)

    October 02, 2019

  • In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics

    From Mao to Now (Deep Dish on Global Affairs)

    October 02, 2019

  • In: Podcast Playlists | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

    How to Hit Currency Manipulators and Fight the Strong Dollar (Peterson Perspectives)

    October 02, 2019

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    Implosions (Slate Moey)

    October 02, 2019

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Geopolitics

    In the Aftermath of Abqaiq (Macro Voices)

    October 02, 2019

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Emerging Markets Equities FX Specials Systemic risk

    What’s the Macro Hive Risk Barometer Telling Us? (1 min read)

    September 26, 2019

    The past few weeks have been replete with drama – oil price surges, repo market disruptions, and even US Presidential impeachment inquiries. Stock markets…

  • Trump Impeachment

    In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Politics Specials Systemic risk US

    Two Ways Impeachment Could Hurt Equity and Risk Markets

    September 25, 2019

    It’s official. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has formally announced an investigation of President Trump. This is in response to conversations the US president…

  • In: Deep Dives | China & Hong Kong Economics Growth & Labour Market

    What’s Wrong with Chinese GDP Data?

    September 25, 2019

    Scepticism has always surrounded Chinese growth data, especially its GDP statistics. The data is released extremely quickly after the end of a…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    What Businesses Can Learn from Ancient Archaeology (Bloomberg Markets Odd Lots, 44 min listen)

    September 24, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A fascinating interview with Vanderbilt University archaeologist Arthur Demarest on parallels between civilisation…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities FX Rates US

    ‎Hot Topic #3 Alex Gurevich: Follow-up from the Grant Williams Interview (Macro Voices, 24 min listen)

    September 24, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Gurevich believes that it’s an urban legend that gold and the dollar are…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology US

    ‎Businessweek Extra – Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman (Bloomberg Businessweek, 28 min listen)

    September 24, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast, Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of private equity firm Blackstone, discusses his…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Rates US

    Two for the Price of One (Grant’s Current Yield Podcast, 30 min listen)

    September 24, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, podcast anchor Jim Bianco and his crew investigate last week’s…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Sustainability & Social Issues

    Climate Change and Corporates: Past the Tipping Point with Customers and Stock Markets (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research, 13 min listen)

    September 24, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Deutsche Bank used artificial intelligence to detect whether being environmentally…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

    Top Picks: Markets and Investing

    September 20, 2019

    21st April How U shaped recovery will reliquify the markets and how JP is allocating asset A Phased Market Recovery as Liquidity…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

    Top Picks: Monetary Policy & Inflation

    September 19, 2019

    21st April No full fletch defaults and how interest will remain lower for longer WHAT CDS MARKETS ARE DISCOUNTING (Variant Perception, 1…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

    Top Picks: Fiscal Policy & Inequality

    September 18, 2019

    21st April Three ways on how Fiscal Policy can help tackle coronavirus recession and how there is inequality even in illness The…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Emerging Markets

    Dr. Anas Alhajji: Oil Market Update (Macro Voices, 27 min listen)

    September 17, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, energy markets expert Dr. Anas Alhajji interprets recent structural changes…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities FX Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    Louis-Vincent Gave: Last Week’s Dislocation Between Value and Growth (Macro Voices, 18 min listen)

    September 17, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) CEO of Gavekal Research, Louis-Vincent Gave sees a massive outperformance of growth stocks,…

  • Money Transfer

    In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy Equities US

    The “Liquification” Of Private Markets Is Underway (Bloomberg Markets, P&L)

    September 17, 2019

    In this wide-ranging episode, Christopher Wolfe from First Republic Private Wealth Management talks about how equities in the US public market…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

    Narrative Economics (LSE Public Lectures and Events, 78 min listen)

    September 17, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Robert Shiller, a leading economist and Nobel Laureate, introduces his incoming book and suggests…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Rates US

    The Debt that Never Dies (The Indicator From Planet Money, 9 min listen)

    September 17, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Bloomberg Journalist Tracey Alloway discusses a secret weapon that the US might deploy…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Three Thoughts on the Oil Spike

    September 17, 2019

    Oil prices have jumped significantly since the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities. But markets are so far taking a sanguine view of the moves and appear to be pricing the spike as temporary. Here are three other points to note:…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

    Top Picks: Growth & Labour Market

    September 16, 2019

    21st April Global labour market in grim condition Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View (NBER, 6-page read) Study finds…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

    Top Picks: Politics

    September 15, 2019

    21st April Politically crisis by the end of 2020 and how growth in trade reduces the probability of conflicts Preparing for the…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

    Top Picks: Data, Models and Market Plumbing

    September 14, 2019

    21st April How space can provide useful hints and what is the forecast for the 2020 Presidential election Monitoring the COVID-19 Crisis…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | China & Hong Kong

    Top Picks: China

    September 13, 2019

    21st April China needs to look inwards and how blame game will be detrimental for the recovery from the crisis Depression, and…

  • In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other

    Top Picks: Inflation and Long-Term Policy

    September 13, 2019

    (The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate…

  • In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Economics Growth & Labour Market

    The Post-Globalisation Economic Model

    September 11, 2019

    Harvard economist Dani Rodrik was one of the earliest sceptics of globalisation. He’s best known for coining his ‘trilemma’ for the world economy, which he stated as:…

  • Money Magnet

    In: Deep Dives | Commodities & Energy Credit Equities Investment Strategy Rates

    Factor Premia: The Best Long-Term Investment Strategy?

    September 11, 2019

    The holy grail of financial market investing is to find investment or trading rules that consistently make money over time….

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Juliette Declercq: What to Expect From the ECB on Thursday (Macro Voices, 16 min listen)

    September 10, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In light of the incoming ECB meeting this Thursday, CEO of JDI Research…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Huw van Steenis On What Central Banks Will Do Next (Odd Lots, 32 min listen)

    September 10, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Continuing the discussion on Central Banks, Huw van Steenis, ex senior adviser to…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics UK

    Is It Legal? (Talking Politics, 47 min listen)

    September 10, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Cambridge University Professors Helen Thompson and Kenneth Armstrong share their…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets US

    Trade Talks Episode 99: The Surprising Story of the US Trade Deficit with South Korea (Peterson Perspectives, 15 min listen)

    September 10, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast discusses a paper by Kadee Russ, from the University of California…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy FX US

    Gold’s Rise has Just Begun (Macro Voices, 87 min listen)

    September 10, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management Grant William argues that outlook for gold…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Why iPhones Make President Trump Angry

    September 10, 2019

    Later today, Apple will be releasing the details of its new iPhone, likely to be the iPhone 11. So expect more cameras, faster chips and new colours…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Other

    What Investors Are Thinking: The August Scan

    September 05, 2019

    August was a tumultuous month for markets. There was panic around yield curve inversions, fears of an escalating…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe FX Growth & Labour Market

    Riksbank Set To Support a Weaker SEK, Steeper Curves (Macro Strategy Views, 21 min listen)

    September 03, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast the Chief Economist at Danske Bank, Michael Grahn, explains why…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities FX Geopolitics

    Brexit Update: Constitutional Warfare (Podzept – with Deutsche Bank Research, 13 min listen)

    September 03, 2019

     (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A comprehensive overview of the latest on Brexit by Deutsche Macro Strategist Oliver…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Rates US

    100-Year Bonds Could Alter How Rate Risk Is Traded (P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz, 32 min listen)

    September 03, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets, explains the risk that comes…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar on the Future of Monetary Policy (Macro Voices, 62 min listen)

    September 03, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A panel consisting of Chief Investment Strategist Peter Boockvar, Danielle Booth, and Patrick…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    What’s Next for Blockchain? (Techtrends, 20 min listen)

    September 03, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) According to Christine Moy from J.P. Morgan’s centre of blockchain excellence, the bank…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics UK

    It’s Not Just the Pound That Will Suffer

    September 03, 2019

    First it was the suspension of Parliament and the increased chances of a no-deal Brexit that hurt the pound. Now the possibility of a general election…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    My FT Op-Ed: Beware Pools of Liquidity: They Could be a Mirage

    August 28, 2019

    I wrote an op-ed for the FT on a topic that I feel is neglected by many. The FT link is here and the piece is presented below…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Europe FX Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    My Five Takeways from the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium

    August 28, 2019

    The annual Jackson Hole gathering of leading Fed officials, international central bankers, and academics, always provides a snapshot of high profile thought on policy…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Growth & Labour Market Rates

    Top of Mind: Dissecting the Market Disconnect (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, 22 min listen)

    August 27, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius discuss what's causing the…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Rates US

    Yield Curves Don’t Lie. But Central Bankers Sometimes Do. (Macro Voices, 28 min listen)

    August 27, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast, Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra, discusses how…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics

    Sinking Jakarta is Test Case for Climate Retreat (Deep Dish on Global Affairs, 26 min listen)

    August 27, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Professor Tom Pepinsky from Cornell University and the Brookings Institution…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy

    A Friend of Mines: Asia’s Coal Habit (Economist radio, 23 min listen)

    August 27, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) We have previously talked about the economics behind renewables and the rising appeal of their…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy

    U.S. Pork Producers Are Forced Out of China-led Rally (P&L from Bloomberg Markets, 28 min listen)

    August 27, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Christine McCracken, Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank examines the pork industry in China.…

  • Currencies

    In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US

    August Curse Hits FX Carry, So Watch Trade

    August 22, 2019

    FX carry trades are down almost 4% so far in August. This is their worst performance since last August…

  • USA vs EU Flags

    In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US

    It’s Europe With The Recession Risk, Not The US

    August 21, 2019

    Despite all the talk of an imminent US recession, most estimates suggest US growth is comfortably in the 2% zone…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

    He Begs to Differ (Grant’s Current Yield Podcast, 22 mins)

    August 21, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics and an Adjunct Professor of Economics at…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market

    Danny Blanchflower Discusses Labor Economics (Masters in Business, 75 mins)

    August 21, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Danny Blanchflower, former Bank of England MPC member attempts to decipher the puzzle…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market

    Kashmir Is the 72-Year ‘Wound’ between India and Pakistan (Deep Dish on Global Affairs, 29 mins)

    August 21, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) We recently observed Prime Minister Modi and his government’s historic announcement to alter…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Growth & Labour Market

    Chinese Interests and Policies in the Middle East: A Conversation with Jon Alterman (Economics – Audio, 25 mins

    August 21, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Dr Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    The Future of News (Podzept with Deutsche Bank Research, 14 mins)

    August 21, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In an age of information overload, the future of news and its consumption…

  • Jerome Powell

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    Can Fed Turn Bonds Yields At Jackson Hole?

    August 15, 2019

    Bond yields across the world are falling to record lows. US 30 year treasury yields are at their all-time lows and flirting with the 2% threshold…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

    The Myth of Meritocracy (Weekly Economics Podcast, 29 mins)

    August 13, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) With Boris Johnson making the 20th Prime Minister to have attended Eton (considered the…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    How Robots Will Feed Our On-Demand Culture (The Future of Everything by the WSJ, 14 mins)

    August 13, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nuro is a start-up aiming to bring autonomous vehicles into home delivery, and…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy

    Peak Energy, Peak Oil, and the Rise of Renewables: An Executive’s Guide to the Global Energy System (The McKinsey Podcast, 31 mins)

    August 13, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast continues the discussion around oil that we initiated last week, with McKinsey…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    More Fed Rate Cuts Will Help EM Assets (P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz, 31 mins)

    August 13, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Eric Stein, Co-Director of Global Fixed Income at Eaton Vance, says the overall…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy

    Billionaire Ken Fisher on Investing Principles (We Study Billionaires – The Investors Podcast, 35 mins)

    August 13, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) An insightful interview with Ken Fisher who talks about fostering the $100bn megafund,…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Investment Strategy

    Businessweek Extra – Hans Morris (Bloomberg Businessweek, 23 min listen)

    August 07, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Hans Morris, the founder of Venture Capital fund Nyca Partners, discusses how the…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy Rates

    Top of the Morning: ‘Assessing stock-bond portfolios’ (UBS On-Air, 14 min listen)

    August 07, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A simple 60/40 portfolio holding consisting of S&P500 equity and US government bonds…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics

    Talking Politics Guide to … The Chinese Communist Party (Talking Politics, 28 min listen)

    August 07, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In 2021 the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate its 100th anniversary, enjoying the…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Rates US

    The Trade War and the Fed, with Adam Posen (Trade Talks, 20 min listen)

    August 07, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) On Wednesday the Fed cut interest rates 25bps for the first time in…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Rates US

    Juliette Declercq: Powell should be fired! (Macro Voices, 14 min listen)

    August 07, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, considers Powell’s 25bps cut last week…

  • Man running on coins

    In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Other

    What Investors Are Thinking: The July Scan

    August 01, 2019

    The worsening European picture and the Fed’s ‘hawkish’ cut dominated July. Weak European growth and inflation data saw the ECB pivot to dovishness…

  • Boris and Trump

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market UK

    Boris’s Trumpian Pounding

    July 30, 2019

    ‘The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it’ and ‘know when to walk away from the table’ …

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Growth & Labour Market US

    Could A Wealth Tax Work? (Planet Money, 22 min listen)

    July 30, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Last week, we discussed the severely widening gap in US inequality . The data…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market

    The Lurking Debt Disaster behind India’s Tallest Tower (FT News in Focus, 7 min listen)

    July 30, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Palais Royale. It was meant to be a luxury residential tower at the…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    The Secret History of the Future: Meat and Potatoes (The Economist Radio, 36 min listen)

    July 30, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Mass production of meat is devastating the environment. It uses vast amounts of…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US

    Michael Swaine on the ‘China is Not an Enemy’ Open Letter (Sinica Podcast, 62 min listen)

    July 29, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) It’s evident that under Trump, US policy towards China has devolved into a…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology

    Ride Hailing, Electric Scooters, Even Flying Cars – What’s Next for the Mobility Market? (Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, 23 min listen)

    July 29, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) If you are anything like the average American, your car sits idle most…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Women, Men, and Hedge Funds (The Indicator, 11 min listen)

    July 23, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A famous study by Hedge Fund Research Inc that covered hedge fund performance…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US

    Tyler Cowen on the Culture of Big Business (Macro Musings, 58 min listen)

    July 23, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Against recent attacks from the political left and right, widely followed US economist…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Investment Strategy

    Andre Bourbonnais – Blackrock Long-Term Private Capital (Capital Allocators, 42 min listen)

    July 23, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Andre Bourbonnais is the global head of Blackrock’s new long-term capital fund. In…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe

    Germany’s von der Leyen Takes Up Key Leadership Role (FT News in Focus, 12 min listen)

    July 23, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Ursula von der Leyen will replace Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission (EC) President…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics UK

    The Making of Boris Johnson (The Daily, 28 min listen)

    July 23, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) An American, left wing take on Boris Johnson, the soon-to-be UK Prime Minister.…

  • Investor ignoring report cartoon

    In: Hive Exclusives | Equities FX US

    Global Investors Shun US Equities

    July 18, 2019

    One of the most remarkable features of the post-2008 financial market regime has been the stellar performance of US equities compared to the rest of the world…

  • £1 coin

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX UK

    Political Turbulence To Keep Pound Down

    July 17, 2019

    The pound has had a torrid time over the past three months. It’s been the worst performing currency among G10 and the major EM currencies…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Rates US

    TINA’s Back in Town? (What Goes Up, 36 min listen)

    July 16, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) TINA, or ‘There Is No Alternative’, to lower rates is the theme of…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US

    Behind Barr (The Information’s 411, 30 min listen)

    July 16, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) US Attorney General William Barr has the final say in whether or not…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | FX US

    Joe Gagnon on Currency Manipulation, Trade Imbalances, and Libra (Macro Musings with David Beckworth, 53 min listen)

    July 16, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A weak dollar policy has entered US political discourse. First it was President Trump,…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Credit Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Food Fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan Market (Eye on the Market by J.P. Morgan, 9 min listen)

    July 16, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) It’s now certain that a Fed cut is coming soon, but what’s driving…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe

    Bitcoin’s Energy Bill (The Indicator from Planet Money, 9 min listen)

    July 16, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Globally, Bitcoin miners use more electricity that the whole of Austria. Although the…

  • Ben Stokes and Johnny Bairstow

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX UK

    England Finally Win The World Cup – Pound To Rally?

    July 15, 2019

    Football in 1966, rugby in 2003, and now cricket in 2019: at last England can add another year to its rather barren hall of fame with Sunday’s thrilling victory in the World Cup finals…

  • Deutsche Bank

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Other

    The Real Meaning Of Deutsche Bank’s Decline

    July 11, 2019

    Having worked at Deutsche Bank for many years, I’m always tuned in to stories on it. And this week has been replete with them…

  • Central Banks

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Should Central Bankers Follow The Two-Century Inflation Target?

    July 10, 2019

    This year, headline inflation has averaged 1.7% in the US, 1.4% in the Euro-area, and 0.5% in Japan. Therefore, years after the financial crisis…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics

    “How will Christine Lagarde lead the European Central Bank?”(The Current by Brookings Institution, 11 min listen)

    July 09, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Perhaps the most insightful piece currently out there discussing the probable impact of…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

     “A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises” (New Books in Economics, 37 min listen)

    July 09, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Over the past 200 years, the top 6 countries in the World (accounting…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

    “How China Escaped the Poverty Trap” (New Books in Economics, 41 min listen)

    July 08, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Conventional economic development theory gets stuck in circular reasoning: good institutions generate economic…

  • Investor Analysis

    In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Other

    What Investors Are Thinking: The June Scan

    July 03, 2019

    The top story of June was easily the Fed pivot to dovishness. It outshone even the ‘will he/won’t he’ Trump trade war with China…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Economics

    Nobel Perspectives: Can people be nudged into better behaviour? (Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS, 15 min listen)

    July 02, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) First some background on the history of behavioural economics. Then Nobel Prize winning…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market

    Jeffry Frieden on the Rise of Populism, Labor Mobility, and the Eurozone (Macro Musings, 53 min listen)

    July 02, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A wide ranging interview of Jeffry Frieden, Professor of Government at Harvard University,…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy

    Andrew Ang Discusses Asset Management (Masters in Business, 1hr 6 min listen)

    July 02, 2019

    (You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Andrew Ang leads US asset manager Blackrock’s factor-based strategies group. At 8 minutes…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Other

    5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

    June 25, 2019

    State of the global economy (ANU Crawford Leadership Forum, 1hr 23min). Several good talks on at the forum. RBA governor Lowe speaks between…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Other

    5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

    June 18, 2019

    I’ve paired these podcasts to provide context for the recent HK protests. The first, Why Hong Kong Is Still Protesting (The Daily,…

  • US Growth

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Equities Growth & Labour Market US

    US Growth In Good Zone For Equities

    June 13, 2019

    Over the past week, we’ve seen a raft of US activity data for May. Manufacturing PMIs surveys (ISM and Markit) were weak…

  • US Dollar

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Investment Strategy

    FX Carry Is Back

    June 12, 2019

    As the Fed capitulates on its hiking cycle, it joins other central banks like the ECB and BoJ in dovish territory. On top of that, the pessimism…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Other

    5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

    June 11, 2019

    An Intra-West Debate (Exponent, 55mins). I’m a big fan of the Taiwan-based Ben Thompson. He’s a techie and on this podcast, he…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Other

    5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

    June 06, 2019

    Inside the Investment Committee: The 2016 big short in fixed income (Macro Voices, 62 mins). Good review of 2016 rates markets. On…

  • In: Podcast Playlists | Other

    Monday 3rd June

    June 03, 2019

    President Trump’s Move Against Huawei Is A Big Deal (31 mins,  Bloomberg Odd Lots, 3 June) Gavekal Dragonomics' Dan Wang describes the centrality…

  • Climate Change

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Europe Sustainability & Social Issues US

    Climate Cancer Is Not Going Away

    June 03, 2019

    Last weekend saw the UK’s hottest day of the year, and there is a chance that the coming summer could even see new records being broken…

  • Trade Area

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Equities Europe FX Rates US

    Euro-area Too Dependent On World Trade

    May 31, 2019

    The big problem for the Euro-area is that it is geared primarily to international trade. And in a world of escalating trade…

  • Silver lining

    In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Rates US

    Gloomy US Yields, Silver Lining for US Stocks

    May 28, 2019

    Yields have tumbled from their November 2018 peak of around 3.25% to a paltry 2.3% in recent weeks. The bulk of the…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

    September 28, 2020

    We are back with our smart investor survey. The respondents are mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy…

  • US Dollar

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics FX US

    Dollar Dominance In The Age Of COVID

    July 21, 2020

    [Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

    Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

    July 16, 2020

    We recently surveyed our Macro Hive network. The respondents were mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy and…

  • Singapore FX

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX

    Asia FX Insights

    June 02, 2020

    The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…

  • Bernie Sanders

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Could Bernie Sanders Upset Markets?

    January 30, 2020

    The US presidential election season will start proper next Monday when the first nominating vote for the Democrat candidate will take place…

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