If you would like to connect and contact the author,Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive.
He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
We are back with our smart investor survey. The respondents are mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Monetary Policy The plethora of Fedspeak continues with Williams and Clarida among the scheduled speakers over the coming week. ECB officials will…
Global stocks have tumbled in recent days given a combination of fears over a second COVID wave in Europe, lingering disappointment over…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
The recent death of liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has shifted political attention to who will pick the next Supreme Court…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation
Monetary Policy After a flurry of major DM central bank meetings last week, this week is quiet in terms policy meetings. There…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro US
Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed meeting is the highlight of the week with Chair Powell set to give details on the shift to…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
In an era of information overload, it is surprising that there are still things that remain undiscussed. Take the upcoming US elections…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities US
It is now widely known that Softbank had engaged in significant buying of US tech stocks through options. But it was already…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US
US equities finally showed some weakness. The S&P500 fell 3.5% on Thursday, while the NASDAQ fell 5%. Here are five things you…
In: Hive Exclusives | US
Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…
In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX
USD/KRW has stabilised around 1185 – its post-COVID lows – in recent weeks. This comes even as Korea faces a second wave…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities
Numerous countries are experiencing second waves of COVID-19 infections – not that you would know from their equity market performance. Take the…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
We were delighted to have serving Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (2019-current) and 18-year veteran of the IMF Dr Reza…
In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX
USD/INR has struggled to break below 74.50 over the past month even as the dollar (DXY) has weakened. This reflects a broader…
In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX
The Taiwan dollar (TWD) has recently started to show some strength – it was up almost 1% against the dollar in the…
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US
We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly…
In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX
G10 FX momentum strategies have delivered poor returns over the past decade.Part of this could be due to a lack of diversification;…
In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
We recently surveyed our Macro Hive network. The respondents were mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy and…
In: Deep Dives | Emerging Markets FX
‘Emerging’ Asia economies are now as large as advanced economies, yet investors continue to show bias towards trading developed markets.At the same…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
We were delighted to have former RBI governor (2013-2016) and former IMF chief economist (2003-2006) Raghuram Rajan as our podcast guest last…
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Commodities & Energy Economics Growth & Labour Market
[Bullish Equities, Bullish Euro] China now competes with the US as a key driver of global growth. Yet the quality of Chinese…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19
The investment bank or sell-side financial sector has experienced major shocks in recent decades. Some have been positive, like the repeal of US…
In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US
The IMF says it’s the worst recession since the Great Depression. No, the worst in 300 years, says the Bank of England. And now this week…
In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues US
Yellow people. Red people. Black people. Brown people. White people. In theory, we believe everyone’s lives matter equally…
In: Hive Exclusives |
One year ago, Macro Hive came into existence as we sent out our first email. It contained two notes from me – one on climate change, another on…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Geopolitics
Unrest. Looting. Rebellion. Riots. All these terms and many more dominate news headlines as protests erupt across the US…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
Markets are starting to come to terms with a COVID world and Asia FX is no different. After tumbling in March, most Asia FX stabilised over…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19
We look at which countries have the strictest lockdowns, and using mobility data we track which countries have followed the lockdowns most closely…
In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Economics Emerging Markets Equities Investment Strategy US
US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19
We’re in the fog of COVID, and it would be tempting to extrapolate our lockdown lifestyles into the post-COVID world. However…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19
Age is one of the clearest contributing factors to COVID fatalities. Study after study is finding that the case fatality rate (CFR) for the elderly is much…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
While the number of COVID cases being reported by countries depends as much on the scale of testing than the level of infections, the number of…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation US
US equities capture the mood of investors well. We saw equities collapse 35% over four weeks from late February, then a 25% rally from late March until…
In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation
The past week or so saw a recovery in almost all risk markets, including emerging markets (EM). So is all well in EM? We’d be more cautious. For one,…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19
Whether it’s confirmed cases, deaths, testing, or ICU beds, we’re inundated with data on COVID-19. In fact, it’s hard to keep track of which countries…
In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation
There’s been a number of recent papers on the impact of pandemics on economies. A Fed paper looks directly at pandemics going back…
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Despite many headline-grabbing downward revisions to US growth, most economists are not expecting inflation to fall by much. The consensus for core…
In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues UK
The UK appears to be on a war footing. The enemy is an invisible one, the COVID-19 coronavirus. ‘We must act like any wartime government’, said…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US
Recent yield curve steepening has actually reduced the odds of a recession to 12% (Chart 1). This Fed model could well reflect a longer-term view that…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
We’ve been arguing that COVID should trigger a US recession and now it seems the Fed is worried too. It’s dramatic 100bps cut yesterday brings interest…
In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues
“Public opinion is sacred: no panic, above all no panic”. “There have been as many plagues in the world as there have been wars, yet plagues and wars…
In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
Forecasting financial crises is difficult. The data comprises a limited set of observed instances and signals a warning only when it is already too late…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
Investors love him, polls were surging in his favour, and his ad spending was off the charts. Yet, by all accounts, Democratic presidential hopeful…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities FX Geopolitics Sustainability & Social Issues US
It’s easy to paint gloomy pictures of the world whether looking at market valuations, climate change or health scares. However, not all is lost,…
In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Sustainability & Social Issues
Scientific consensus has long been reached on a link between human activities and climate change. But now investors have taken notice, and…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
The US presidential election season will start proper next Monday when the first nominating vote for the Democrat candidate will take place…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK
While most are focused on UK data in the short-term to gauge whether the Bank of England will cut rates next week, we shouldn’t lose sight of…
In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure FX
While most markets like equities and bonds have well-established valuation models, FX markets often baffle people. What anchors the value of a currency?
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology
Apple’s earnings have been stagnating in recent years (Chart 1). They are reliant on iPhone sales and upgrades in a maturing smartphone market…
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
While everyone has been talking about trade wars, the next battle may be fought over capital flows. Under President Trump, the US has battled…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
Looking at the consensus of FX analysts, the biggest gains* in the G10 against the dollar are expected to be the Norwegian krone (+3%) and the pound (+2%), while…
In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Fiscal Policy & Inequality Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation
We’ve finally entered a decade we can give a proper name to – the twenties. And we’ll soon see whether or not it will be roaring because…
In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Geopolitics Investment Strategy
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US
Louis Hyman, Professor of History at Cornell University and ex-McKinsey, unravels the decline of steady work in his latest book, Temp…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues
Cardiff Garcia and Stacey Vanek Smith, hosts of “Planet Money” reflect upon the decade of the 2010’s and presents 3 critical trends…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US
Noah Feldman, an American Professor of Law at Harvard Law School presents insights on the case for impeachment of Donald J. Trump:…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US
Former US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter sheds light on key issues in US foreign policy and the role of technology and innovation…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Juliette Declercq decodes the macro outlook and translates that view into actionable trading strategies:…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
CEO of Gavekal Research, Louis-Vincent, discusses the S&P 500 Christmas Rally, tech companies’ index composition, the trade war, the return of inflation,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy
Tony DeSpirito, Managing Director and Director of Investments at BlackRock discusses his outlook for stocks in 2020…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
John Goldstein, head of Goldman Sachs’ Sustainable Finance Group, shares valuable insights and operational details…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
In an interview for The Investor’s Podcast, bestselling author Gregory Zuckerman looks at the lifetime achievements of the founder of Renaissance Technologies, Jim Simons:…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Economics
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, concisely articulates the macro drivers impacting the markets today and the things to watch in 2020…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation
With the large Conservative majority in government, both UK markets and the economy are likely to enter a honeymoon period in the months ahead…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics
Welcome to Macro Hive’s Podcast Awards for 2019. We find that podcasts are fast becoming a top medium for timely macro insights…
In: Deep Dives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality
Numerous theories claim to explain the gender gaps in pay and promotions. But one of the most compelling is the ‘the old boys’ club’…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Wall Street contributor Daisy Maxey reveals several behavioural biases found to be associated with investors’ fund selection process:…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Economics Sustainability & Social Issues US
Peter Diamandis, Founder and Executive Chairman of X-Prize Foundation and Harvard Professor Steven Kotler discuss their new book…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market
The Economist covers Wexit (Quebec breaking away) in Canada, big data startups in climate change, and how the increased numbers of billionaires in Sweden…
In: Podcast Playlists | Credit Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US
Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, Managing Director of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, explains how the Fed’s goal of inflation targeting is responsible for high leverage…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, discusses Fed policy and negative interest rates. $12.5 trillion in negative interest rate assets, all of which originate from continental Europe and Japan…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics UK
The results are in and it looks like the Conservative party will have an 80-seat majority. This is much more than polling had suggested…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Equities FX Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
Black swan events are the unknown unknowns that no one can even envisage, let alone predict. But their close cousin – grey swans – can enter our imaginations…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy
UBS energy experts analyse long term investment themes around energy transition and the opportunities it presents for investors…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Rates
Jun Pan, Professor of Finance at Jiao Tong University, has a flair for insightful communicaton and is an expert researcher of Chinese corporate bond markets…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Growth & Labour Market
Yi Xiong, China Economist at Deutsche Bank analyses the Chinese economy over the next decade, highlighting the crucial role of consumption…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market
Blackstone conducts a survey of private equity companies in their portfolio, focusing on challenges and opportunities CEOs are facing. Prakash Melwani…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation
Samantha Gross, Fellow at Brooking institute, explains why Saudi Aramco’s IPO did not get listed internationally as initially planned but was instead listed locally in Riyadh…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
If you looked only at the dollar and FX volatility, 2019 may have seemed a dull year. The dollar is up, but it’s been a choppy and modest ascent…
In: Deep Dives | Sustainability & Social Issues
One of the clearest effects of climate change is sea level rise (SLR). The scientific community expects a global average SLR of around 3-6 ft. over the next century…
In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Equities
You’d think traders are so focused on making money they pay little attention to TV. But that’s not the conclusion of Joel Peress and Daniel Schmidt in…
In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Growth & Labour Market
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are eliciting much fear from society, especially considering the potential impact on the workplace…
In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US
This Friday we get the US employment data. We should see a pickup in payroll growth after two months of decline…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy
Samantha Gross, Fellow at Brooking institute, explains why Saudi Aramco’s IPO did not get listed…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics
Geopolitical expert and Eurasia Group president, Ian Bremmer, discusses the drivers behind populism…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Equities
Jim Glassman, Head Economist at JP Morgan Commercial Bank, reviews four financial vulnerabilities from the Fed’s report…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation
Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, outlines the current state of global growth. He warns that…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation at UBS, and John Tousley, Head of Global Markets Strategy at Goldman Sachs…
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics Equities Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy
This week will see Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. A holiday which brings families together, celebrates harmony and recognises the bounty of harvest…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
Experts from UBS and PWC discuss their annual billionaire report and cite the existence of the “Billionaire Effect”…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation
William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, explains how low or negative rates increases saving rather than consumption, which slows economic growth…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market
Professor Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University argues that the relationship between elections and the economy is changing. Democrats and Republicans…
In: Podcast Playlists | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Geopolitics
Professor Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University argues that the relationship between elections and the economy is changing…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Growth & Labour Market
JPMorgan’s Head Economist Jim Glassman delves into the perceived slump in capex this year. He finds that decline is not due to trade war dynamic…
In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
The talking heads on TV give such a convincing forecast it’s hard to doubt them sometimes. But try pinning them down to a specific time frame and discrete future event – now that’s next to impossible…
In: Deep Dives | Politics Sustainability & Social Issues
Elites. They’re all over the news these days. But who are they and what do we know about them? An excellent new study…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities Growth & Labour Market US
The big event for the week ahead is the release of the November PMIs. But there are few other useful releases too. Here are my three focuses…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics
In this episode, University of Chicago finance professor Luigi Zingales discusses the impact of the ‘Chicago School’ of economic thinking on the US…
In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market
This episode discusses how 3D printing can impact international trade. Many think trade is the ladder for economies to develop…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is one of our top bloggers of 2019, so he is well worth listening to. In this podcast, he opines on several controversial topics…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar, one of the leading experts on money markets, speaks on September’s repo market volatility…
In: Podcast Playlists | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
In a live panel podcast hosted at Chicago Booth, the “father of modern finance” Eugene Fama and the business school’s namesake David Booth share their…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics
Welcome to the Macro Hive Blog Awards 2019. We thought it was time macro bloggers got their due recognition. So many great thinkers beaver away in forgotten corners of the economics and markets…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Who’s in the Deflation Club? Already, we have China’s data for October, which showed surging headline inflation on higher pork prices, but…
In any given country, government bonds are thought to be safer than corporate ones. After all, governments have the ability to tax or even print money…
In: Deep Dives | Rates
Investors often try to use flow and positioning data to forecast market returns, whether in bond, equity, or other asset markets…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Alex Gurevich, Founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, gives his in-depth and insightful…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Lauren Goodwin, a portfolio strategist from NY Life Investment Management, shares her bearish,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center is joined by Henry Curr, the economics…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Scott Kupor from Andreessen Horowitz talks about conditions needed for start-ups to grow,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This year’s World Trade Organisation report focuses on the trade of services and…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities FX Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
It’s Halloween, so what better time to showcase some scary charts…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A fascinating conversation with Ben Horowitz, co-founder of VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, on…
In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast discusses public finance. Is quantity more important than quality? Boris Cournede,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Political Science professor Matthew Goodwin from the University of Kent discusses the recent…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode of Halloween specials, ‘The Indicator’ asks economists, what scares them…
In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Elga Bartsch, Head of Research at Blackrock Investment Institute, shares her views on…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Geopolitics UK
Boris Johnson clearly sees himself as a modern day Winston Churchill. In his biography of the World War Two Prime Minister, Johnson…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
The terminal decline in Euro-area growth appears to have stopped. The latest batch of European manufacturing PMIs show upticks for Germany and…
In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology
Most of us think more about how to earn money than how to spend it. Implicit within this is the assumption that ‘the more money I earn, the…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market UK
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Features Melanie Simms, Professor of Work and Employment at the University of Glasgow…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Dives into the upcoming ‘Asian century’ – over half of the world’s GDP…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast interviews retired US General Robert Spalding, an ex-Defence Attaché in Beijing.…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Fran Kinniry Discusses Diversified Portfolios(Masters in Business, 75 mins) A wide-ranging interview of…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Frances Coppola on the Macroeconomics of Helicopter Drops (Macro Musings, 60 mins) Frances…
In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy
One of the biggest fears for investors is jumping onto crowded trades. With everyone positioned for the move, it makes it even harder for news…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A panel of two of the co-authors of the UN SDG (Sutainable Development Goals)…
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics UK
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nicholas Barrett and Guntram Wolff discuss Brexit with Kalypso Nicolaïdis, based on her…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Recently in our curated content we discussed the healthy US labour market, especially…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Ben Emons from Medley Global Advisors and Luke Kawa from…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Richard Koo from Nomura Research Institute coined the concept of a balance Sheet recession,…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities Europe US
US Q3 earnings season has now started. JP Morgan and Citi have beaten expectations, while Goldman Sachs has disappointed. We’ll also see Netflix…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
The dollar has performed well over the last three months. In fact, it has outperformed most currencies. The only exception in G10 is the yen, while currencies like…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities FX
We recently introduced our Risk Barometer. It uses risk measures across various markets to determine whether markets are in ‘risk aversion’ or…
In: Deep Dives | Equities Investment Strategy
Economists like Keynes, Minsky, and Kindleberger have highlighted the importance of shifting perceptions of risk in driving markets and the economy. When…
In: Deep Dives | FX Growth & Labour Market Investment Strategy
Currency markets often confound investors. Unlike equities or bonds, they are a long-short market, so if you buy one currency – say…
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics UK
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Following the publication of David Cameron’s memoirs, this podcast takes a step back…
In: Podcast Playlists | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) George Selgin from the Cato Institute reviews the recent repo rate surge and…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, questions the recent longevity of the…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Leah Dreyfuss and Mara Karlin from Brookings introduce a paper…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Geopolitics US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management,…
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Economics
In: Podcast Playlists | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics
In: Podcast Playlists | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Geopolitics
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Emerging Markets Equities FX Specials Systemic risk
The past few weeks have been replete with drama – oil price surges, repo market disruptions, and even US Presidential impeachment inquiries. Stock markets…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Politics Specials Systemic risk US
It’s official. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has formally announced an investigation of President Trump. This is in response to conversations the US president…
In: Deep Dives | China & Hong Kong Economics Growth & Labour Market
Scepticism has always surrounded Chinese growth data, especially its GDP statistics. The data is released extremely quickly after the end of a…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A fascinating interview with Vanderbilt University archaeologist Arthur Demarest on parallels between civilisation…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities FX Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Gurevich believes that it’s an urban legend that gold and the dollar are…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast, Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of private equity firm Blackstone, discusses his…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, podcast anchor Jim Bianco and his crew investigate last week’s…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Sustainability & Social Issues
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Deutsche Bank used artificial intelligence to detect whether being environmentally…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other
21st April How U shaped recovery will reliquify the markets and how JP is allocating asset A Phased Market Recovery as Liquidity…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other
21st April No full fletch defaults and how interest will remain lower for longer WHAT CDS MARKETS ARE DISCOUNTING (Variant Perception, 1…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other
21st April Three ways on how Fiscal Policy can help tackle coronavirus recession and how there is inequality even in illness The…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Emerging Markets
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, energy markets expert Dr. Anas Alhajji interprets recent structural changes…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Equities FX Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) CEO of Gavekal Research, Louis-Vincent Gave sees a massive outperformance of growth stocks,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy Equities US
In this wide-ranging episode, Christopher Wolfe from First Republic Private Wealth Management talks about how equities in the US public market…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Robert Shiller, a leading economist and Nobel Laureate, introduces his incoming book and suggests…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Bloomberg Journalist Tracey Alloway discusses a secret weapon that the US might deploy…
In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Oil prices have jumped significantly since the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities. But markets are so far taking a sanguine view of the moves and appear to be pricing the spike as temporary. Here are three other points to note:…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other
21st April Global labour market in grim condition Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View (NBER, 6-page read) Study finds…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other
21st April Politically crisis by the end of 2020 and how growth in trade reduces the probability of conflicts Preparing for the…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other
21st April How space can provide useful hints and what is the forecast for the 2020 Presidential election Monitoring the COVID-19 Crisis…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | China & Hong Kong
21st April China needs to look inwards and how blame game will be detrimental for the recovery from the crisis Depression, and…
In: Bilal's Top Picks | Other
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate…
In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Economics Growth & Labour Market
Harvard economist Dani Rodrik was one of the earliest sceptics of globalisation. He’s best known for coining his ‘trilemma’ for the world economy, which he stated as:…
In: Deep Dives | Commodities & Energy Credit Equities Investment Strategy Rates
The holy grail of financial market investing is to find investment or trading rules that consistently make money over time….
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In light of the incoming ECB meeting this Thursday, CEO of JDI Research…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Continuing the discussion on Central Banks, Huw van Steenis, ex senior adviser to…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics UK
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Cambridge University Professors Helen Thompson and Kenneth Armstrong share their…
In: Podcast Playlists | Emerging Markets US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast discusses a paper by Kadee Russ, from the University of California…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy FX US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management Grant William argues that outlook for gold…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
Later today, Apple will be releasing the details of its new iPhone, likely to be the iPhone 11. So expect more cameras, faster chips and new colours…
In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Other
August was a tumultuous month for markets. There was panic around yield curve inversions, fears of an escalating…
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe FX Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast the Chief Economist at Danske Bank, Michael Grahn, explains why…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities FX Geopolitics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A comprehensive overview of the latest on Brexit by Deutsche Macro Strategist Oliver…
In: Podcast Playlists | Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets, explains the risk that comes…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A panel consisting of Chief Investment Strategist Peter Boockvar, Danielle Booth, and Patrick…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) According to Christine Moy from J.P. Morgan’s centre of blockchain excellence, the bank…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics UK
First it was the suspension of Parliament and the increased chances of a no-deal Brexit that hurt the pound. Now the possibility of a general election…
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
I wrote an op-ed for the FT on a topic that I feel is neglected by many. The FT link is here and the piece is presented below…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Europe FX Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US
The annual Jackson Hole gathering of leading Fed officials, international central bankers, and academics, always provides a snapshot of high profile thought on policy…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Growth & Labour Market Rates
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius discuss what's causing the…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this podcast, Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra, discusses how…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Professor Tom Pepinsky from Cornell University and the Brookings Institution…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) We have previously talked about the economics behind renewables and the rising appeal of their…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Christine McCracken, Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank examines the pork industry in China.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US
FX carry trades are down almost 4% so far in August. This is their worst performance since last August…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US
Despite all the talk of an imminent US recession, most estimates suggest US growth is comfortably in the 2% zone…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics and an Adjunct Professor of Economics at…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Danny Blanchflower, former Bank of England MPC member attempts to decipher the puzzle…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) We recently observed Prime Minister Modi and his government’s historic announcement to alter…
In: Podcast Playlists | Commodities & Energy Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In this episode, Dr Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In an age of information overload, the future of news and its consumption…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
Bond yields across the world are falling to record lows. US 30 year treasury yields are at their all-time lows and flirting with the 2% threshold…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) With Boris Johnson making the 20th Prime Minister to have attended Eton (considered the…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nuro is a start-up aiming to bring autonomous vehicles into home delivery, and…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast continues the discussion around oil that we initiated last week, with McKinsey…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Eric Stein, Co-Director of Global Fixed Income at Eaton Vance, says the overall…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) An insightful interview with Ken Fisher who talks about fostering the $100bn megafund,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Investment Strategy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Hans Morris, the founder of Venture Capital fund Nyca Partners, discusses how the…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Investment Strategy Rates
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A simple 60/40 portfolio holding consisting of S&P500 equity and US government bonds…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Geopolitics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) In 2021 the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate its 100th anniversary, enjoying the…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) On Wednesday the Fed cut interest rates 25bps for the first time in…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics Growth & Labour Market Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, considers Powell’s 25bps cut last week…
In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Other
The worsening European picture and the Fed’s ‘hawkish’ cut dominated July. Weak European growth and inflation data saw the ECB pivot to dovishness…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market UK
‘The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it’ and ‘know when to walk away from the table’ …
In: Podcast Playlists | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Growth & Labour Market US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Last week, we discussed the severely widening gap in US inequality . The data…
In: Podcast Playlists | Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Palais Royale. It was meant to be a luxury residential tower at the…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Mass production of meat is devastating the environment. It uses vast amounts of…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) It’s evident that under Trump, US policy towards China has devolved into a…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) If you are anything like the average American, your car sits idle most…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A famous study by Hedge Fund Research Inc that covered hedge fund performance…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Against recent attacks from the political left and right, widely followed US economist…
In: Podcast Playlists | Business & Technology Investment Strategy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Andre Bourbonnais is the global head of Blackrock’s new long-term capital fund. In…
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Ursula von der Leyen will replace Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission (EC) President…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics UK
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) An American, left wing take on Boris Johnson, the soon-to-be UK Prime Minister.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities FX US
One of the most remarkable features of the post-2008 financial market regime has been the stellar performance of US equities compared to the rest of the world…
The pound has had a torrid time over the past three months. It’s been the worst performing currency among G10 and the major EM currencies…
In: Podcast Playlists | Equities Rates US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) TINA, or ‘There Is No Alternative’, to lower rates is the theme of…
In: Podcast Playlists | Geopolitics US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) US Attorney General William Barr has the final say in whether or not…
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A weak dollar policy has entered US political discourse. First it was President Trump,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Credit Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) It’s now certain that a Fed cut is coming soon, but what’s driving…
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Globally, Bitcoin miners use more electricity that the whole of Austria. Although the…
Football in 1966, rugby in 2003, and now cricket in 2019: at last England can add another year to its rather barren hall of fame with Sunday’s thrilling victory in the World Cup finals…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Other
Having worked at Deutsche Bank for many years, I’m always tuned in to stories on it. And this week has been replete with them…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation
This year, headline inflation has averaged 1.7% in the US, 1.4% in the Euro-area, and 0.5% in Japan. Therefore, years after the financial crisis…
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Perhaps the most insightful piece currently out there discussing the probable impact of…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Over the past 200 years, the top 6 countries in the World (accounting…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Conventional economic development theory gets stuck in circular reasoning: good institutions generate economic…
In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Other
The top story of June was easily the Fed pivot to dovishness. It outshone even the ‘will he/won’t he’ Trump trade war with China…
In: Podcast Playlists | Economics
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) First some background on the history of behavioural economics. Then Nobel Prize winning…
In: Podcast Playlists | Europe Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A wide ranging interview of Jeffry Frieden, Professor of Government at Harvard University,…
In: Podcast Playlists | Investment Strategy
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Andrew Ang leads US asset manager Blackrock’s factor-based strategies group. At 8 minutes…
In: Podcast Playlists | Other
State of the global economy (ANU Crawford Leadership Forum, 1hr 23min). Several good talks on at the forum. RBA governor Lowe speaks between…
In: Podcast Playlists | Other
I’ve paired these podcasts to provide context for the recent HK protests. The first, Why Hong Kong Is Still Protesting (The Daily,…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Equities Growth & Labour Market US
Over the past week, we’ve seen a raft of US activity data for May. Manufacturing PMIs surveys (ISM and Markit) were weak…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX Investment Strategy
As the Fed capitulates on its hiking cycle, it joins other central banks like the ECB and BoJ in dovish territory. On top of that, the pessimism…
In: Podcast Playlists | Other
An Intra-West Debate (Exponent, 55mins). I’m a big fan of the Taiwan-based Ben Thompson. He’s a techie and on this podcast, he…
In: Podcast Playlists | Other
Inside the Investment Committee: The 2016 big short in fixed income (Macro Voices, 62 mins). Good review of 2016 rates markets. On…
In: Podcast Playlists | Other
President Trump’s Move Against Huawei Is A Big Deal (31 mins, Bloomberg Odd Lots, 3 June) Gavekal Dragonomics' Dan Wang describes the centrality…
In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Europe Sustainability & Social Issues US
Last weekend saw the UK’s hottest day of the year, and there is a chance that the coming summer could even see new records being broken…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Equities Europe FX Rates US
The big problem for the Euro-area is that it is geared primarily to international trade. And in a world of escalating trade…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Rates US
Yields have tumbled from their November 2018 peak of around 3.25% to a paltry 2.3% in recent weeks. The bulk of the…
In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
We are back with our smart investor survey. The respondents are mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics FX US
[Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…
In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
We recently surveyed our Macro Hive network. The respondents were mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy and…
In: Hive Exclusives | FX
The risk rally in markets continues. Some of this is due to optimism around the reopening of economies around the world, especially the US. This should…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US
The US presidential election season will start proper next Monday when the first nominating vote for the Democrat candidate will take place…
