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Black swan events are the unknown unknowns that no one can even envisage, let alone predict. But their close cousin – grey swans – can enter our imaginations. These are low probability, high impact events that few expect. They aren’t even our base cases. But by imagining these risk scenarios, we can at least prepare for them should they erupt. Here are ten to think about for 2020…
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I am a Christian inside and a financial markets participant on the outside. The bible’s final chapter describes a terrible picture of 30% of the waters polluted and 30% of the lands destroyed and inflation such that one day’s wages only buy food. If I reconcile the black swans with that picture which I hold to be a truth, the investment portfolio has to be totally tilted towards buying gold and the cheapest thing now – agri commodities, water solutions. Thats overturning 10 years of everything we got used to, since the financial crisis ???