Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Macro Hive Author

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SPECIALITY: Global Macro, Rates,

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist based in Los Angeles.  She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater.  She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side.  Before moving to the US she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore.  She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics.

MY ARTICLES


  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Growth & Labour Market US

    Can The Recovery Continue Without New Relief?

    September 24, 2020

    Market concerns over a new COVID-19 relief bill could be overdone. This is because the household savings rate is extraordinarily high, and…

  • Biden and Trump

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Biden And Trump Macroeconomic Convergence Points At Move To High Inflation Regime

    September 17, 2020

    The macroeconomic plans of the Biden and Trump campaigns are surprisingly similar and support a move to a high inflation regime. The…

  • Fed Dovish Stance

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    September 2020 FOMC Preview: Struggling To Enhance Their Extreme Dovish Stance

    September 15, 2020

    Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…

  • Fed AIT

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Fed AIT, A New Salvo In The Undeclared Currency Wars?

    September 03, 2020

    Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) could be a net negative for the dollar as other global central banks appear unable or unwilling to…

  • Average Inflation

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    Average Inflation Targeting: Positive For Markets, Less So For Consumer Prices

    August 28, 2020

    At Jackson Hole today Chair Powell announced a move to average inflation targeting, reflected in changes to the Statement of Longer Run…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Spike In MBA Delinquencies Shows Debt Forbearance Is Having Intended Effect

    August 20, 2020

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Q2 delinquency spike likely overstates the extent of delinquencies and suggests that the administration debt forbearance policy…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    The US Treasury’s Cash Management Could Undermine Fed Independence

    August 13, 2020

    The Treasury Government Account (TGA), which is the US Treasury’s checking account at the Fed, has become so large that the Fed…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Growth & Labour Market US

    US Growth Back To Full Speed Ahead?

    July 30, 2020

    The recovery is likely to move sideways for a month or so before restarting due to the implementation of the new COVID-19 budget package and a…

  • US Treasury Note

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Rates US

    Limited Upside To Yields – Until Funding Competition Resumes

    July 24, 2020

    Despite the extraordinary US budget deficit, a very dovish Fed and depressed private investment suggest the Treasury could term out some of…

  • US Dollar

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics FX US

    Dollar Dominance In The Age Of COVID

    July 21, 2020

    [Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Three Conditions For A Lasting Inflation Acceleration

    July 16, 2020

    [Bearish Bonds, Stocks, USD / Bullish TIPS & Gold] A spike in inflation is likely when the US economy normalizes. Beyond that,…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Will Mass Immunization Turn Out Negative For Markets?

    July 09, 2020

    Mass immunization against COVID-19 could begin as early as mid-2021 – sooner than policymakers and market participants expect. And when it does,…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Is The Fed Moving Away From LSAPs?

    July 02, 2020

    The Fed could be moving towards an operational framework where it directly targets access to credit in the real economy rather than…

  • World Leaders

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics

    Five Major Geopolitical Risks Over The Next 12 Months

    July 01, 2020

    COVID will have a long-term impact on the global economy, but other geopolitical risks could also have significant macro and financial market…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 US

    New US COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, But New Lockdowns Remain Unlikely

    June 25, 2020

    The growth in COVID-19 cases in the US is likely to accelerate further, but new blanket lockdowns from states appear unlikely: the virus has…

  • FED BALANCE SHEET

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Could Disappoint

    June 18, 2020

    Based on continued market normalization and unchanged Fed policies, reserves are headed towards $4.3tn at end-2020. This could clog banks’…

  • China doesn't need Hong Kong

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong FX

    China No Longer Needs HKD

    June 04, 2020

    The HKD peg to the USD is central to Hong Kong’s role as a global financial centre. This role has served the mainland well after the 1997 handover but…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

    President Trump China Press Conference: More Bark Than Bite, So Far

    June 01, 2020

    Bottom line: markets rallied on Friday’s Trump press conference on China as it turned out more a list of threats than actual actions and Trump did not…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Inefficient COVID-19 Relief Unlikely To Stop V Shaped Recovery

    May 28, 2020

    The US administration’s initial policy response to COVID-19 has provided the majority of workers with replacement income larger than their previous…

  • In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Economics

    Supply-Side Perspectives On The Economic Impact Of COVID-19

    May 27, 2020

    Most of the discussion on the economic impact of COVID-19 has focused on demand destruction. Yet two recent academic papers…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market

    U And V Shaped Risks Compared

    May 21, 2020

    In this note I list my top three risks of V (fast) and U (slow) shaped recoveries. On balance, V seems more probable, mainly due to the US electoral…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    The Fed’s Constructive Negative Rates Ambiguity

    May 12, 2020

    Several Fed Funds futures contracts began pricing above 100 last week, implying that markets were pricing in a small negative Fed Funds rate in…

  • US Credit Crunch

    In: Hive Exclusives | Credit US

    Could A US Credit Crunch Bring About A Debt Holiday?

    May 07, 2020

    Despite its exceptional size, US policy support could disappoint due to poor targeting. With presidential elections in November, this suggests further…

  • COVID Stimulus

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    A Pause In Policy Support Could Provide A Buying Opportunity

    April 30, 2020

    A May pause in new policy initiatives against a backdrop of slow support to the real economy creates downside market risks. Over the longer run…

  • COVID News

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

    Incremental COVID-19 News More Likely Positive Than Negative

    April 23, 2020

    Incremental news on COVID-19 is likely to point towards greater healthcare capacity and lower mortality rates than current consensus. On balance…

  • COVID Intensity

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities

    Using COVID Intensity To Pick Equity Winners

    April 17, 2020

    This week, I build an index of epidemic intensity that is negatively related to equity market performance, both in EMs and DMs.  The index relation with…

  • Positive Risk

    In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities FX

    A Positive Risk (Lower VIX) Scenario For Q2

    April 09, 2020

    I am bearish volatility based on the feasibility of restarting economies without rekindling the epidemic and on the policy response…

  • US COVID Scenarios

    In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues

    How Many COVID Deaths Could The US See?

    April 02, 2020

    The White House Coronavirus task force briefing on 31 March followed the cardinal rule of successful market strategists: provide a number or a date…

  • Social Distancing

    In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues

    An Alternative Measure Of COVID-19 Containment

    March 31, 2020

    The daily release of countries’ COVID-19 case counts consistently makes front page headlines despite conveying little information. By contrast…

  • Pandemic Preparedness

    In: Hive Exclusives | Sustainability & Social Issues

    We Can Protect Both Lives And Livelihood

    March 26, 2020

    President Trump’s announcement that he plans on having the US economy re-open by Easter has proved controversial. Yet whether or not we agree…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues

    3 Conditions For A V-Shaped Recovery

    March 19, 2020

    A sharp, globally synchronized, COVID-19-related slowdown is underway. Because most governments have been slow to respond, their policy options…

  • Pandemic Preparedness

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues

    What’s Stopping Early COVID Intervention

    March 12, 2020

    Implementing a worldwide, synchronized, two-week long strict quarantine could end the COVID-19 global pandemic. About 99% of infected individuals…

  • Bull Market Corona

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Investment Strategy Sustainability & Social Issues

    A Bullish Market Case From COVID-19

    March 03, 2020

    Markets surged on Monday following global announcements of policy easing. This is in line with my 13 February expectations that Covid-19 was unlikely…

  • Jerome Powell Speech

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    COVID-19 And The Fed: Our Currency, Our Problem Too

    February 27, 2020

    The Fed will probably ease in March, in part to help China avoid a hard landing. Fed funds futures are currently pricing about 1/4 chance of a 25 bp cut…

  • Coronavirus Pandemic

    In: Hive Exclusives | EM Growth & Labour Market Sustainability & Social Issues US

    The Long-Term Consequences Of A COVID-19 Global Pandemic

    February 20, 2020

    A global COVID-19 pandemic would further accelerate the post-financial crisis deglobalization. China’s long-term growth rate could be hit the hardest…

  • Total Virus

    In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Novel Coronavirus Unlikely To Cause TINA’s Demise, For Now

    February 13, 2020

    Bad news related to the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus, COVID19, is unlikely to be fully priced in. Yet over the next few months…

  • Australia Policy

    In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Why Australia Needs More Policy Support Than Canada

    February 06, 2020

    For the first time in 20 years, Australian yields have fallen through Canada’s.  In addition, the AUDCAD cross is at its lowest level since the crisis…

  • Household Debt

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics US

    The Cracks In US Households’ Finances

    January 30, 2020

    US credit scoring is facing a revamp. Fair Isaac (FICO) recently announced changes to consumer credit scoring that will raise the credit core of…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    How The Fed’s “Not QE” Boosts Risk Markets

    January 21, 2020

    The Fed is moving to a RP (repo) operational target, which requires a bigger balance sheet. In the context of the ongoing risk rally this is likely to…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Growth & Labour Market US

    Cracks In The US Labour Market Could Pressure Equities

    January 14, 2020

    The latest US labour market data showed a further slowdown in labour income. This will likely drag down consumption growth…

  • China Great Wall

    In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Emerging Markets Growth & Labour Market

    China’s True Growth Could Be Half What You Think

    November 21, 2019

    China’s GDP data release always generates great market excitement despite rarely straying more than 25bp below or above the government target…

  • Fed Dovish Stance

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    September 2020 FOMC Preview: Struggling To Enhance Their Extreme Dovish Stance

    September 15, 2020

    Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…

  • US Dollar

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics FX US

    Dollar Dominance In The Age Of COVID

    July 21, 2020

    [Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    The Fed’s Constructive Negative Rates Ambiguity

    May 12, 2020

    Several Fed Funds futures contracts began pricing above 100 last week, implying that markets were pricing in a small negative Fed Funds rate in…

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