By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
September 24, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Economics
Growth & Labour Market
US
September 24, 2020
Market concerns over a new COVID-19 relief bill could be overdone. This is because the household savings rate is extraordinarily high, and…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
September 17, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
September 17, 2020
The macroeconomic plans of the Biden and Trump campaigns are surprisingly similar and support a move to a high inflation regime. The…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
George Goncalves
September 15, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
September 15, 2020
Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
September 03, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
FX
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
September 03, 2020
Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) could be a net negative for the dollar as other global central banks appear unable or unwilling to…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
August 28, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Rates
US
August 28, 2020
At Jackson Hole today Chair Powell announced a move to average inflation targeting, reflected in changes to the Statement of Longer Run…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
August 20, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
August 20, 2020
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Q2 delinquency spike likely overstates the extent of delinquencies and suggests that the administration debt forbearance policy…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
August 13, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
August 13, 2020
The Treasury Government Account (TGA), which is the US Treasury’s checking account at the Fed, has become so large that the Fed…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Growth & Labour Market
US
July 30, 2020
The recovery is likely to move sideways for a month or so before restarting due to the implementation of the new COVID-19 budget package and a…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 24, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Rates
US
July 24, 2020
Despite the extraordinary US budget deficit, a very dovish Fed and depressed private investment suggest the Treasury could term out some of…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Aaron Cantrell
July 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Economics
FX
US
July 21, 2020
[Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 16, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
July 16, 2020
[Bearish Bonds, Stocks, USD / Bullish TIPS & Gold] A spike in inflation is likely when the US economy normalizes. Beyond that,…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 09, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
July 09, 2020
Mass immunization against COVID-19 could begin as early as mid-2021 – sooner than policymakers and market participants expect. And when it does,…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
July 02, 2020
The Fed could be moving towards an operational framework where it directly targets access to credit in the real economy rather than…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 01, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Geopolitics
July 01, 2020
COVID will have a long-term impact on the global economy, but other geopolitical risks could also have significant macro and financial market…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
June 25, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
US
June 25, 2020
The growth in COVID-19 cases in the US is likely to accelerate further, but new blanket lockdowns from states appear unlikely: the virus has…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
June 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
June 18, 2020
Based on continued market normalization and unchanged Fed policies, reserves are headed towards $4.3tn at end-2020. This could clog banks’…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
June 04, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
China & Hong Kong
FX
June 04, 2020
The HKD peg to the USD is central to Hong Kong’s role as a global financial centre. This role has served the mainland well after the 1997 handover but…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
June 01, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
China & Hong Kong
Geopolitics
US
June 01, 2020
Bottom line: markets rallied on Friday’s Trump press conference on China as it turned out more a list of threats than actual actions and Trump did not…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 28, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Growth & Labour Market
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
May 28, 2020
The US administration’s initial policy response to COVID-19 has provided the majority of workers with replacement income larger than their previous…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 27, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19
Economics
May 27, 2020
Most of the discussion on the economic impact of COVID-19 has focused on demand destruction. Yet two recent academic papers…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Growth & Labour Market
May 21, 2020
In this note I list my top three risks of V (fast) and U (slow) shaped recoveries. On balance, V seems more probable, mainly due to the US electoral…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
George Goncalves
May 12, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
May 12, 2020
Several Fed Funds futures contracts began pricing above 100 last week, implying that markets were pricing in a small negative Fed Funds rate in…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 07, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Credit
US
May 07, 2020
Despite its exceptional size, US policy support could disappoint due to poor targeting. With presidential elections in November, this suggests further…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
April 30, 2020
A May pause in new policy initiatives against a backdrop of slow support to the real economy creates downside market risks. Over the longer run…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
April 23, 2020
Incremental news on COVID-19 is likely to point towards greater healthcare capacity and lower mortality rates than current consensus. On balance…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 17, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Equities
April 17, 2020
This week, I build an index of epidemic intensity that is negatively related to equity market performance, both in EMs and DMs. The index relation with…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 09, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Credit
Equities
FX
April 09, 2020
I am bearish volatility based on the feasibility of restarting economies without rekindling the epidemic and on the policy response…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Sustainability & Social Issues
April 02, 2020
The White House Coronavirus task force briefing on 31 March followed the cardinal rule of successful market strategists: provide a number or a date…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
March 31, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Sustainability & Social Issues
March 31, 2020
The daily release of countries’ COVID-19 case counts consistently makes front page headlines despite conveying little information. By contrast…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
March 26, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Sustainability & Social Issues
March 26, 2020
President Trump’s announcement that he plans on having the US economy re-open by Easter has proved controversial. Yet whether or not we agree…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
March 19, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Growth & Labour Market
Sustainability & Social Issues
March 19, 2020
A sharp, globally synchronized, COVID-19-related slowdown is underway. Because most governments have been slow to respond, their policy options…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
March 12, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Sustainability & Social Issues
March 12, 2020
Implementing a worldwide, synchronized, two-week long strict quarantine could end the COVID-19 global pandemic. About 99% of infected individuals…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
March 03, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Investment Strategy
Sustainability & Social Issues
March 03, 2020
Markets surged on Monday following global announcements of policy easing. This is in line with my 13 February expectations that Covid-19 was unlikely…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
February 27, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
February 27, 2020
The Fed will probably ease in March, in part to help China avoid a hard landing. Fed funds futures are currently pricing about 1/4 chance of a 25 bp cut…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
February 20, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
EM
Growth & Labour Market
Sustainability & Social Issues
US
February 20, 2020
A global COVID-19 pandemic would further accelerate the post-financial crisis deglobalization. China’s long-term growth rate could be hit the hardest…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
February 13, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Credit
Equities
Growth & Labour Market
Monetary Policy & Inflation
February 13, 2020
Bad news related to the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus, COVID19, is unlikely to be fully priced in. Yet over the next few months…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
February 06, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Fiscal Policy & Inequality
FX
Monetary Policy & Inflation
February 06, 2020
For the first time in 20 years, Australian yields have fallen through Canada’s. In addition, the AUDCAD cross is at its lowest level since the crisis…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
January 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
US
January 30, 2020
US credit scoring is facing a revamp. Fair Isaac (FICO) recently announced changes to consumer credit scoring that will raise the credit core of…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
January 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
January 21, 2020
The Fed is moving to a RP (repo) operational target, which requires a bigger balance sheet. In the context of the ongoing risk rally this is likely to…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
January 14, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Equities
Growth & Labour Market
US
January 14, 2020
The latest US labour market data showed a further slowdown in labour income. This will likely drag down consumption growth…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
November 21, 2019
In: Hive Exclusives |
China & Hong Kong
Emerging Markets
Growth & Labour Market
November 21, 2019
China’s GDP data release always generates great market excitement despite rarely straying more than 25bp below or above the government target…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
George Goncalves
September 15, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
September 15, 2020
Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Aaron Cantrell
July 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Economics
FX
US
July 21, 2020
[Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
George Goncalves
May 12, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
May 12, 2020
Several Fed Funds futures contracts began pricing above 100 last week, implying that markets were pricing in a small negative Fed Funds rate in…
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