
Equity View: 2024 Earnings Priced for Perfection?
John Tierney
Equities have been mired in a tight range since early summer as markets weigh the pressures of rising rates against ongoing evidence of a robust economy.
John Tierney
Equities have been mired in a tight range since early summer as markets weigh the pressures of rising rates against ongoing evidence of a robust economy.
Dalvir Mandara, Bilal Hafeez
US treasury yields rose last week as markets digested the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Dominique nailed it – the Fed finally acknowledged the US economy’s strength. The Fed stayed on hold, kept an extra 2023 hike, reduced the number of 2024 cuts from four to two, and kept the inflation trajectory unchanged but upgraded the growth trajectory.
John Tierney
Equities took a hit on concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), but finished the week with continued hopes that priority is still a soft landing.
Dalvir Mandara
We investigate what impact minor allocations (1% to 5%) of crypto in a portfolio of well-diversified assets have on the overall portfolio performance.
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, including the Fed rate decision and the week's data prints and should we be worried about a US government shut down?
Bilal Hafeez
Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including most recently “In Defense of Public Debt”.
John Tierney
Because of ageing and disabilities, labour force participation is set to fall to 60% in coming years (from 62.8% currently). Absent offsetting growth in productivity, that will lead to slower GDP growth and tax revenue to address the aging problem
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Even though Chair Powell moved the markets more than I expected, markets continue to underprice the 2023 and 2024 FFR.
Matthew Tibble
The contrarian trade is to be bullish China, but we find good reason to remain on the sidelines. Oil could hit $100/bbl, but we would fade any move higher.
Vasileios Gkionakis
As of 8 September, the dollar had risen by 4.8% since mid-July, its largest gain over a 41-day period since mid-October 2022.
Vasileios Gkionakis
Idiosyncratic and relative-value (RV) trades are currently appealing. Look for monetary policy divergences (Bank of England repricing lower, rates re-pricing in CEE), sensitivity to ongoing muted Chinese growth, and energy prices.
Dalvir Mandara, Bilal Hafeez
US treasury yields rose last week as markets digested the latest inflation data. Notably, August CPI (headline: +3.7% YoY vs +3.6% consensus) accelerated above expectations. Core goods prices (excluding used cars) rose MoM, shelter inflation slowed but remained above levels consistent with the Fed’s target, and core services excluding housing inflation accelerated.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
ECB pulled off a dovish hike, but we see more to come. The ECB hiked by 25bps as Henry had expected for some time. They also increased their interest rate forecasts for this year and next, driven by higher energy prices.
John Tierney
Equities remain mired in a narrow trading range that began in early July. The end of summer and hot weather season may bring little relief. We see the logjam continuing until the economy breaks weaker and forces the Fed to choose between keeping the recovery going (i.e., easing) or damping inflation (i.e., higher for longer).
Macro Hive
Welcome to the Week Ahead! Andrew and Dominique breakdown the events from the past week, from market moves, data prints, US politics and more planned strikes and what that means for wage inflation. Finally, what should investors expect from the Fed.
Richard Jones
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at a six-month high, having risen for eight straight weeks. This rise has momentum and will probably continue into Q4. At some stage, we think the rally will be worth fading because it cannot continue indefinitely, and a correction is inevitable.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
I expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold and the SEP to show: One more 2023 hike. Two 2024 cuts instead of four in the June SEP. Unchanged inflation trajectory.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
The quarterly Beige Book was released last week, continuing to point to strong growth, falling inflation and a loosening labour market. Here are our highlights on each point:
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