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  1. G10 FX Weekly: Parity in EUR/CHF Next as Dip-Buying Performs

    Richard Jones

    Summary One of the best performing G10 FX trades in 2024 has been buying dips in EUR/CHF. After the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a rate cut in March, attention now turns to next month’s SNB policy update, with Swiss inflation back at the SNB’s target. Markets will closely watch a speech from […]

  2. G10 FX Weekly: USD and US Short-End Yields Rangebound, With Downward Bias

    Richard Jones

    Summary An in-line US CPI reading and weaker-than-expected retail sales print drove US short-end yields and USD lower on the week. The US 2-year yield is poised for its second lower weekly close in three weeks, while the USD index (DXY) is set to close lower for the third week in four. USD/JPY traded lower […]

  3. Key Events: Will a CPI Surprise Challenge the Rate Cut Narrative?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the headline is CPI and retail sales: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expects 0.3% MoM for core. I see upside risks due to April’s rising energy prices and strong demand backdrop. Sam’s model will give an early read. Yet even with a positive surprise, this CPI print alone is unlikely […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: BoE Opens Downside for UK Short-End Yields and GBP

    Richard Jones

    Summary The Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged yesterday but shifted towards a cut as early as next month. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 in favour of the hold, with two dissenters (including Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden) calling for an immediate cut. Governor Andrew Bailey was notably dovish on market pricing in […]

  2. Key Events: Will a Dovish BoE Open the Way to Cuts?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there are two main events: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (Monday): We expect it will still show increased credit demand, fewer banks tightening standards, and more banks willing to extend loans – another sign Fed tightening is not reaching the economy. U. Mich. Consumer confidence […]

  3. G10 FX Weekly: MoF Makes Selling USD/JPY Rallies Compelling

    Richard Jones

    Summary USD/JPY briefly printed above 160 on 29 April, a public holiday in Japan, before quickly falling back below 155. Money market data suggested the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) bought about 5.5tn yen that day. A second bout of intervention, following the Fed policy update on Wednesday, saw the MoF buy 3.5tn yen, leading […]

Ep. 213: Bilal Hafeez on Fed Cuts, Dollar Strength and AI Hype

Bilal Hafeez

Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank.

G10 FX Weekly: EUR/CHF Is a Buy-on-Dips, Is Parity Possible?

Richard Jones

Summary Long EUR/CHF was one of our strongest conviction trades in Q1 2024. The pair topped out earlier this month, but pullbacks have been shallow and short-lived. We think the Swiss National Bank could sell CHF during its easing cycle, while the BEER valuation for EUR/CHF sees the pair as 8.5% undervalued. Both factors would […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: MoF Must Act on USD/JPY as Talk Is Cheap (and Ineffective)

    Richard Jones

    Summary The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) has continued verbal intervention, warning the market it is unhappy with USD/JPY price action and is prepared to push back against the JPY selloff. USD/JPY has continued rallying this week, breaking 154 for the first time in 34 years. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has had its strongest […]

  2. G10 FX Weekly: USD/JPY on Intervention Watch; US Yields Becoming Stretched

    Richard Jones

    Summary After last week’s US jobs report and yesterday’s CPI data, US yields have exploded higher and have made new year-to-date (YTD) highs across the curve. USD/JPY has also accelerated quickly, closing above 152 for the first time in TKTK years, which greatly increases the probability of JPY intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance […]

  3. G10 FX Weekly: US Yields, USD Near YTD Highs, But Hold Fire Pre-NFP

    Richard Jones

    Summary US yields across the curve are at or near their year-to-date (YTD) highs, as are the USD Dollar Index (DXY) and most G10 USD pairs. At such levels, we would normally position for retracement lower. However, Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report presents major event risk. Market Implications We wait for price action post-NFP […]

G10 FX Weekly: Long USD/JPY Under Threat as Japan’s MoF Lurks

Richard Jones

Summary Yesterday, USD/JPY traded to its strongest level since 1990 (on an intraday basis). This prompted the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) to verbally intervene (following further pushback earlier this week) to combat JPY weakness. This makes it much more likely that the MoF will buy JPY in the market, as verbal pushback has only […]

G10 FX Weekly: EUR/CHF Upside Done, USD/JPY Downside Due

Richard Jones

Summary This week saw a torrent of central bank rate decisions, highlighted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ending its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). Also, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting rates by 25bps. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) kept policy steady with comparably less fanfare, […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: Short CHF Stands Out as Central Bank Flurry Approaches

    Richard Jones

    Summary In the next seven days, six G10 central banks provide monetary policy updates. Excepting the Bank of Japan (BoJ), no interest rate moves are expected. Markets are therefore largely in wait-and-see mode, with most G10 currencies in a range, presenting very few attractive trades. Market Implications One exception to this is being short the […]

  2. Momentum Models Scale Back USD/JPY Bullishness

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. A positive rates (+0.3% WoW) outing battled poor equity (-0.4% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW) performances. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over […]

  3. Momentum Models Turn Bearish JGBs Following BoJ Talk

    Ben Ford

    Summary Momentum models declined -0.3% over the past week. Poor rates (-1.0% WoW) and FX (-0.2% WoW) outweighed a positive equity (+0.7% WoW) outing. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+6.9%). Market Implications Momentum models are bearish EUR/USD and bullish GBP/USD – we have closed our long USD trades. They […]

G10 FX Weekly: Respect US Rates Ranges Ahead of Huge Event Risk

Richard Jones

Summary US 2-year and 10-year yields have range-traded year-to-date (YTD). US yields in both curve points have retraced slightly lower this month after sharp moves higher in February. We think the US jobs report tomorrow will be the catalyst for the next directional move in the US rates market, with the next Federal Reserve (Fed) […]

Markets to Watch: Watch Out For ‘More Good’ Jobs Data

Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]

Investing in the Foreign Exchange Market

At Macro Hive, we offer a wide range of FX rates analysis and research into foreign exchange markets. We provide detailed FX analysis on DM and EM on a weekly basis, while our Emerging Markets team produces daily insights into the latest currency exchange rates and FX trends for China, India, Brazil and other EM countries. Our FX rates analysis also covers carry trades.
The trading of currencies on the FX market (or forex market) occurs 24 hours a day, five days a week across major financial centers worldwide. Our research is therefore global in perspective, and we cover the latest FX news alongside analysis of historical exchange rates in response to macro trends. At Macro Hive, we base our FX rates insights on a longer-term outlook, seeking to hold positions for weeks rather than intraday swings.
As with all investments, trading in currencies entails risk, especially during periods of high market volatility or geopolitical tension. We recommend investors interested in FX investments tailor their exposure according to their risk appetite. It is also possible to hedge to mitigate exposure to risk by using correlated currency pairs.

Insights into Interest Rates

As a corollary to our FX research, Macro Hive also specialises in interest rate insights. We offer previews and reviews of central bank meetings and analysis of central bank communications, and our research extends to the broad macroeconomic implications of easing and tightening cycles. We use this to inform not just our FX analysis, but also our outlook on bonds, equities, and other asset classes.

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