
Markets to Watch This Week: Central Bank Speakers in Focus
Bilal Hafeez
US equities bounced back. The S&P500 has risen around 8% from its start-of-month lows. 3pp of this move came on Friday.
Bilal Hafeez
US equities bounced back. The S&P500 has risen around 8% from its start-of-month lows. 3pp of this move came on Friday.
Ben Ford
We are in a bear market. And if recent earnings momentum weakens (as we expect), it will worsen.
Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw bond yields across DM rising significantly. The rises came as DM central banks (excluding the BoJ) continue to be more hawkish.
John Tierney and Caroline Grady
Retail sales surprised on the downside – total sales were down -0.3% versus +0.1% consensus forecast. Ex autos, sales were up 0.5% versus 0.7% forecast.
Ben Ford
We turned more bearish on ethereum as on-chain signals have worsened and the macro backdrop remained poor.
Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw a generic sell-off across DM rates, led by the short-end. This was driven by a strong upside surprise to US inflation, and hawkish surprises from the ECB and RBA.
Ben Ford
Bilal continued to favour cash on a backdrop of fragile markets in his latest asset allocation update. We reiterated our bearish bias on bitcoin.
Bilal Hafeez
Canadian short-end yields increased most over the past week after the Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked by 50bps on Wednesday, taking their overnight rate to 1.5%.
Ben Ford
We see the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500 heading lower in coming months. Between already high valuations and the prospect of further cuts in earnings outlook for many companies...
Bilal Hafeez
US equities bounced as the S&P500 returned +6.6% on the week and +2.5% on the Friday. Moreover, each day saw it close higher than the open.
Ben Ford
We consolidated our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document.
Ben Ford
We consolidated our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Find Bilal’s latest asset allocation biases here. Note, since its release, Bilal has changed his bias to a neutral weighting in crypto.
Bilal Hafeez
$-Bloc hike expectations moderated over the past week as inflation expectations pulled back. New Zealand’s two-year OIS swap slid 2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev)...
Bilal Hafeez
Hike expectations are rising across Scandinavia and the $-Bloc. Sweden’s two-year OIS swap jumped +2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev), closely followed by...
Bilal Hafeez
The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with DXY up 2% on the week. Meanwhile, CNH continued to weaken (-3.1 std-devs over the past week) – Bert suggests remaining short CNY until the PBOC stops the move.
Bilal Hafeez
Markets turned more hawkish on $-Bloc Central Banks. Ahead of Australia’s inflation print on Wednesday, markets had begun to price the 3 May meeting...
Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw a renewed move higher in crude oil as American equities continued to breakdown through the start of 2022’s first earning season. Meanwhile, USD/JPY pushed through 128.0.
Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw weakness across both fixed income and equity markets as inflation fears persist, and central bank hawkishness is increasingly priced.
Bilal Hafeez
Short-end yields were the biggest vol-adjusted movers of the week. 2Y UST yield led the rise to briefly break 2.5%, its highest rate since early 2019...
Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…
Already have an account?…