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  1. Prime Trade Ideas: Positioning for More Turbulence in Equities

    Ben Ford

    We are in a bear market. And if recent earnings momentum weakens (as we expect), it will worsen.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Pay Attention to Central Bank Speakers and June Surveys

    Bilal Hafeez

    Last week saw bond yields across DM rising significantly. The rises came as DM central banks (excluding the BoJ) continue to be more hawkish.

  3. China Weakness Is Here to Stay

    John Tierney and Caroline Grady

    Retail sales surprised on the downside – total sales were down -0.3% versus +0.1% consensus forecast. Ex autos, sales were up 0.5% versus 0.7% forecast.

  1. Prime Trade Ideas: Is ESG Worth Considering as an Investor?

    Ben Ford

    We turned more bearish on ethereum as on-chain signals have worsened and the macro backdrop remained poor.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: CB Hawkishness Driving Generic Selling

    Bilal Hafeez

    Last week saw a generic sell-off across DM rates, led by the short-end. This was driven by a strong upside surprise to US inflation, and hawkish surprises from the ECB and RBA.

  3. Prime Trade Ideas: How to Position for a (More) Hawkish Fed

    Ben Ford

    Bilal continued to favour cash on a backdrop of fragile markets in his latest asset allocation update. We reiterated our bearish bias on bitcoin.

Markets to Watch This Week: Watch for ECB Hawkishness

Bilal Hafeez

Canadian short-end yields increased most over the past week after the Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked by 50bps on Wednesday, taking their overnight rate to 1.5%.

Prime Trade Ideas: How to Position for a China Reopening

Ben Ford

We see the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500 heading lower in coming months. Between already high valuations and the prospect of further cuts in earnings outlook for many companies...

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Historic S&P500 Bounce Ahead of a (Potentially) Quiet Week

    Bilal Hafeez

    US equities bounced as the S&P500 returned +6.6% on the week and +2.5% on the Friday. Moreover, each day saw it close higher than the open.

  2. Prime Trade Ideas: Holding the Line

    Ben Ford

    We consolidated our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document.

  3. Prime Trade Ideas: Our 50 Favourites in Asset Allocation, Equities, Crypto, FX and Rates

    Ben Ford

    We consolidated our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Find Bilal’s latest asset allocation biases here. Note, since its release, Bilal has changed his bias to a neutral weighting in crypto.

Markets to Watch This Week: UK CPI to Show First Signs of Energy Price Cap Adjustment

Bilal Hafeez

$-Bloc hike expectations moderated over the past week as inflation expectations pulled back. New Zealand’s two-year OIS swap slid 2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev)...

Markets to Watch This Week: US CPI and UK GDP in Focus

Bilal Hafeez

Hike expectations are rising across Scandinavia and the $-Bloc. Sweden’s two-year OIS swap jumped +2.7 standard-deviations (std-dev), closely followed by...

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: FOMC and BoE in Focus, with NFP to Follow

    Bilal Hafeez

    The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with DXY up 2% on the week. Meanwhile, CNH continued to weaken (-3.1 std-devs over the past week) – Bert suggests remaining short CNY until the PBOC stops the move.

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Australian Markets in Focus Ahead of Wednesday Inflation

    Bilal Hafeez

    Markets turned more hawkish on $-Bloc Central Banks. Ahead of Australia’s inflation print on Wednesday, markets had begun to price the 3 May meeting...

  3. Markets to Watch This Week: Fed Speakers Will Continue to Support 50bps Hikes

    Bilal Hafeez

    Last week saw a renewed move higher in crude oil as American equities continued to breakdown through the start of 2022’s first earning season. Meanwhile, USD/JPY pushed through 128.0.

Markets to Watch This Week: USTs Steepening to Continue

Bilal Hafeez

Last week saw weakness across both fixed income and equity markets as inflation fears persist, and central bank hawkishness is increasingly priced.

Markets to Watch This Week: Short-end USD Rates Close to Pricing 50bp May Hike

Bilal Hafeez

Short-end yields were the biggest vol-adjusted movers of the week. 2Y UST yield led the rise to briefly break 2.5%, its highest rate since early 2019...

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