Richard Jones
Summary Since the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) bought JPY on 11 July, USD/JPY has declined ~5.75%, its biggest two-week drop since late last year. USD/JPY is now trading at its lowest level since early May (~152.50). Much event risk exists for USD/JPY in the next week. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) updates monetary policy […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… PCE price index, pers. income, spending – Friday. Consensus seems reasonable. The Fed watches the services component of PCE. We will examine median price PCE for indication of trend and see personal savings remaining around 4%. Q2 GDP – Thursday. Consensus is 1.9% vs the Atlanta Fed’s […]
Richard Jones
Summary After weaker-than-expected US CPI last week, the 2-year US Treasury yield broke below the ~4.6% floor in place since early April. The yield remains below this level, having touched ~4.4% this week. Similarly, the UK 2-year yield has traded lower over the past couple months. The yield gained momentum over the past week, printing […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the important data points: Retail sales – Tuesday. Expect 0.2% for the control group, in line with consensus. Consumption growth is slowing due to catchup in personal income tax payments. Manufacturing production – Tuesday. Consensus of –0.1% mom appears reasonable, though the data says little about the […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/CHF has retraced all the down move following the European election results and the snap French election call, both on 9 June. The pair dropped almost 2% between the close of business 7 June and close of business on 18 June. EUR/CHF rallied modestly after the SNB rate cut on 20 June but has […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models up 0.5% WoW, rates flat WoW and FX down 0.2% WoW. All momentum models are down over a three-month timeframe, with […]
Julius Probst, PhD
Summary JPY has plummeted over the last two years despite Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention. But fears of a Japanese currency and debt crisis are overblown: the BoJ owns about half the outstanding JGBs, while foreigners own only a fraction of Japanese debt. Japan has also one of the largest global net asset positions; a […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the most important data is: NFP – Friday. We agree with the consensus on payrolls and unemployment. Wage growth will be more important than usual due to last month’s pickup, which some argue is the start of a trend. ISM PMIs – manu. Monday, services Wednesday. We agree with […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models down 0.1% WoW, rates up 0.2% WoW and FX unchanged WoW. FX momentum models are the best performing over a three-month […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY has printed a 30+ year high this week, surpassing the previous intraday high above 160 seen on 29 April. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened in the FX markets that day, buying JPY. This shunted USD/JPY down to an intraday low just below 152 in the following days. Market Implications We expect profit-taking […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main events are: Core PCE – Friday. Expect no surprise since PPI and CPI allow for close approximation. The more reliable indicator of trend will be the Cleveland Fed’s median price PCE, published a few hours after the BEA release. Personal income and spending – Friday. Consensus estimates […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/CHF is down ~2.8% in June, poised for its biggest monthly drop year-to-date (YTD). The SNB, broadly consistent with market expectations, cut its policy rate 25bps to 1.25% yesterday. CHF strength this month has been driven largely by political uncertainty in France, where President Emmanuel Macron announced snap parliamentary elections. This political uncertainty is […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, Wednesday is a federal holiday. Otherwise, the main data releases are: Retail sales – Tuesday. Consensus for the control group is 0.3% MoM vs -0.3% in April. This sounds reasonable: the series is noisy, and retail sales cover only goods and restaurant consumption. The more important economic data is […]
Richard Jones
Summary The 2-year UK gilt yield has fallen over 30bps from last month’s peak. This followed the dovish policy update from the Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last month, voting 7-2 in favour of holding rates. Two dissenters (including Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden) called for an immediate cut. The BoE updates policy […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY is trading very near the middle of the range seen since the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened in the FX market in late April. Over this period, the US 2-year yield is currently near the bottom of the prevailing ~4.7%/~5.0 range. Tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be key for determining […]
Richard Jones
Summary Comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Jordan on inflation and the Swiss franc (CHF) have driven the biggest one-day decline in EUR/CHF since October. The pair is now poised for its worst week of 2024. The franc also found support from the much stronger-than-expected Q1 Swiss GDP data. Market Implications We stand aside […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data releases are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. We see core PCE at +0.25% MoM vs +0.30% consensus. So a downside surprise is possible from rounding down. We expect the household savings rate stays around historical lows of 3.5%. A very low rate is a […]
Richard Jones
Summary One of the best performing G10 FX trades in 2024 has been buying dips in EUR/CHF. After the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a rate cut in March, attention now turns to next month’s SNB policy update, with Swiss inflation back at the SNB’s target. Markets will closely watch a speech from […]
Richard Jones
Summary An in-line US CPI reading and weaker-than-expected retail sales print drove US short-end yields and USD lower on the week. The US 2-year yield is poised for its second lower weekly close in three weeks, while the USD index (DXY) is set to close lower for the third week in four. USD/JPY traded lower […]
At Macro Hive, we offer a wide range of FX rates analysis and research into foreign exchange markets. We provide detailed FX analysis on DM and EM on a weekly basis, while our Emerging Markets team produces daily insights into the latest currency exchange rates and FX trends for China, India, Brazil and other EM countries. Our FX rates analysis also covers carry trades.
The trading of currencies on the FX market (or forex market) occurs 24 hours a day, five days a week across major financial centers worldwide. Our research is therefore global in perspective, and we cover the latest FX news alongside analysis of historical exchange rates in response to macro trends. At Macro Hive, we base our FX rates insights on a longer-term outlook, seeking to hold positions for weeks rather than intraday swings.
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