Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.2% WoW) were offset by rates. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+1.4%). […]
Richard Jones
We expect USD downside in December, mostly in the last two weeks. However, the outsized November fall may have already accounted for much of the move.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
We standardise WoW price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons. Last Week’s Highlights USD continued its decline as RoW data stabilises. The dollar index (DXY) kept falling last week, down 0.5% WoW. The biggest winners were NZD, AUD and GBP (Charts 1 and 2). The GBP performance owes much to a better-than-expected […]
Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.6% WoW) were offset by FX and rates. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month […]
Richard Jones
Markets are chopping around in ranges, with the November highs/lows across the G10 FX and rates space to contain price action into year-end.
Viresh Kanabar, Bilal Hafeez
We standardise WoW price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons. Last Week’s Highlights Rates and USD fall sharply as US inflation comes in weaker than expected. October core and headline CPI were 10bp below expectations. On the headline inflation side, lower gasoline prices contributed. More importantly, on the core side, housing data […]
Ben Ford
Summary Momentum models (-0.3% WoW) added to last week’s losses, although equity momentum models provided a bright spot (+0.3%). Meanwhile, FX (-0.7%) led declines. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+0.8%). FX (-0.5%) and equity (-0.9%) struggled. Market Implications Momentum models remain bullish on Gilts, in line with Henry’s view […]
Richard Jones
Summary Sharp moves lower in US yields and the US dollar (USD) index (DXY) this month have taken both to multi-month lows. We think these outsized market reactions are in large part due to lopsided market positioning (long USD and short the US rates market). After the big market moves, we think a clear-out has […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Last Week’s Highlights Brent falls almost 5% on demand risks. Front-month Brent fell from $85 to $81 last week as demand worries retook centre stage. While Europe has shown the main signs of weakness, Chinese trade data sparked the sell-off last week despite being mixed. Crude imports rose from 11.2mn b/d to 11.4mn b/d last […]
Viresh Kanabar
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content. Latest Updates FX, Rates, and Commodities: Beware MoF intervention when selling JPY […]
Ben Ford, Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models (-0.5% WoW) added to last week’s losses, with rates (-1.2% WoW) leading. FX momentum models (-0.1% WoW) registered smaller losses. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month […]
Richard Jones
After pulling back to a low 149-handle last week, USD/JPY is now trading back up to ~151. The wild ride in the pair is worth breaking down, especially the whiplash price action from last week and into this week.
Matthew Tibble
Summary Strikes may be behind Friday’s low US payroll data, suggesting the Fed may discount the print and keep a December hike in play. The BoE may be overestimating future wage growth due to reliance on problematic ONS data. We position for a more dovish outlook. Japan’s Ministry of Finance typically succeeds in supporting the […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Last Week’s Highlights 10Y yields collapsed… What drove the move? Last week’s price action was dominated by the collapse in long-end yields, which fell almost 30bps (Charts 1 and 3). Several factors drove this move. On Monday, the US treasury announced it would need to borrow $76bn less than expected at $776bn in privately held […]
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models (-0.4% WoW) reversed last week’s gains, with rates (-0.8% WoW) FX momentum models (-0.2% WoW) registered smaller losses. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+3.0%). […]
Richard Jones
Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, with less than stellar survey and hard data in the Eurozone, the euro (EUR) has proven resilient in recent weeks.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Last Week’s Highlights Can anything stop the US consumer?! US personal spending continues to outpace personal income. Personal consumption rose 0.7% MoM vs expectations of 0.5%, while personal income rose 0.3%, slightly lower than the consensus forecast of a 0.4% increase. This means the personal savings rate continues to fall and is now at 3.6%, […]
Viresh Kanabar
Our views on the major asset classes remain the same. We’re slightly more positive on the FTSE 100 given this environment of rising rates at the long end.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models (+0.4% WoW) continued their positive performance, with equity models (+0.8% WoW) leading. FX (+0.4% WoW) and rates momentum model (+0.1% WoW) performance was more moderate. Rates momentum models are the […]
At Macro Hive, we offer a wide range of FX rates analysis and research into foreign exchange markets. We provide detailed FX analysis on DM and EM on a weekly basis, while our Emerging Markets team produces daily insights into the latest currency exchange rates and FX trends for China, India, Brazil and other EM countries. Our FX rates analysis also covers carry trades.
The trading of currencies on the FX market (or forex market) occurs 24 hours a day, five days a week across major financial centers worldwide. Our research is therefore global in perspective, and we cover the latest FX news alongside analysis of historical exchange rates in response to macro trends. At Macro Hive, we base our FX rates insights on a longer-term outlook, seeking to hold positions for weeks rather than intraday swings.
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