Bilal Hafeez
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Vice President (VP) Kamala Harris is virtually assured of the nomination. Her nomination at the top of the Democratic ticket has made the race more competitive. Trump administration economic policies might not be as destabilizing as I initially feared. Market Implications I still expect one insurance Fed cut in 2024. Harris to Become Democratic […]
Bilal Hafeez
Dr. Pippa Malmgren is an economist who makes sense of the world economy by writing books, founding tech businesses, advising policymakers around the world and through public speaking and teaching.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Following the presidential debate, Donald Trump is surging in the polls and betting markets. A Supreme Court ruling has effectively ensured Trump will not have to stand in new trials before the elections. Trump’s vice president (VP) pick by 15 July could indicate his administration’s likely policies. The likelihood of President Joe Biden exiting […]
Bilal Hafeez
Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm.
Bilal Hafeez
Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). He is also chair of the Social and Urban Policy Area at HKS, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Bilal Hafeez
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Government funding for several agencies expires on 1 March. There is a chance of a temporary shutdown, with limited economic consequences. Market Consequences A shutdown would likely be too short-lived to impact growth and inflation, and therefore Fed policy. I continue to expect the first Fed cut at the June FOMC meeting. Routine Theatrics? […]
Bilal Hafeez
Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The betting market for the Democratic nomination in next year’s presidential elections is grossly mispriced. President Biden has negative odds: this means betting markets are pricing zero chance of Biden not being nominated. In reality, the chance of Biden withdrawing from the race could be about 20% based on poor performance in the polls, third […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Nine New Speaker Candidates Last Friday, House Republicans cast aside Trump-backed Representative Jim Jordan as their nominee for Speaker, after he failed three times to get elected. Over the weekend, nine Representatives threw their names into the ring. Of these, six voted in support of former-Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s Continuing Resolution and seven voted to object […]
Bilal Hafeez
With the US debt ceiling still unresolved, we held emergency webinar to discuss the potential impact of the US debt ceiling crisis.
Bilal Hafeez
Gene Ma is the Head of China Research at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF, Gene served as China Strategist at top macro hedge fund Tudor Investment.
Richard Jones
Geopolitics remains a constant risk to markets. As the ultimate FX haven, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is always attractive during heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Macro Hive
Bilal joined the Bloomberg European close show to discuss the global inflation picture and what happens if the ECB raise rates to 4%. He also shared Macro Hive's outook on the markets and some of his top trade ideas.
Bilal Hafeez
Timothy Ash is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International.
Macro Hive
Macro Hive Senior Researcher Dominique Dwor-Frecaut joined the Bloomberg TV team for US open to discuss disinflation, the latest CPI print, her 8% rate call and where the market is pricing rates now.
Henry Occleston
As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) came out dovish, and the European Central Bank (ECB) came out strongly hawkish.
Macro Hive
CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive Bilal Hafeez joined Bloomberg Europe today (26th January 2023) to share his thoughts on the current market rally, earnings results, and the recession outlook.
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