Politics & Geopoliticssee more…

  1. Ep. 200: Julia Azari on Trump’s Dictatorial Powers, Biden’s Unpopularity, and US Elections

    Bilal Hafeez

    Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development.

  2. 2024 Grey Swan: Biden Withdraws From US Elections

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    The betting market for the Democratic nomination in next year’s presidential elections is grossly mispriced. President Biden has negative odds: this means betting markets are pricing zero chance of Biden not being nominated. In reality, the chance of Biden withdrawing from the race could be about 20% based on poor performance in the polls, third […]

  3. The Impact of the US Debt Ceiling: Emergency Webinar

    Bilal Hafeez

    With the US debt ceiling still unresolved, we held emergency webinar to discuss the potential impact of the US debt ceiling crisis.

  1. Ep. 162: Gene Ma on US-China Decoupling, China’s Green Boom, and Growth Outlook

    Bilal Hafeez

    Gene Ma is the Head of China Research at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF, Gene served as China Strategist at top macro hedge fund Tudor Investment.

  2. G10 FX Weekly: Worried About Geopolitics? Look to the Swiss Franc!

    Richard Jones

    Geopolitics remains a constant risk to markets. As the ultimate FX haven, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is always attractive during heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

  3. Bloomberg TV Interview: What Breaks if the ECB Hits 4%?

    Macro Hive

    Bilal joined the Bloomberg European close show to discuss the global inflation picture and what happens if the ECB raise rates to 4%. He also shared Macro Hive's outook on the markets and some of his top trade ideas.

Ep. 152: Timothy Ash on Russia’s Failure, China Intervention and EM Re-Alignment  

Bilal Hafeez

Timothy Ash is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International.

Bloomberg TV Interview: CPI Reaction

Macro Hive

Macro Hive Senior Researcher Dominique Dwor-Frecaut joined the Bloomberg TV team for US open to discuss disinflation, the latest CPI print, her 8% rate call and where the market is pricing rates now.

  1. 3 Possible Geopolitical Crises for 2023

    Henry Occleston

    As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) came out dovish, and the European Central Bank (ECB) came out strongly hawkish.

  2. Bloomberg TV Interview: Market and Central Bank Outlook

    Macro Hive

    CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive Bilal Hafeez joined Bloomberg Europe today (26th January 2023) to share his thoughts on the current market rally, earnings results, and the recession outlook.

  3. Charts of the Week: Persistent Inflation Problems for Central Banks

    Matthew Tibble

    The Fed faces inconsistent inflation and unemployment in the US. Meanwhile, the ECB looks unlikely to shift dovish given core inflation momentum.

US Housing Will Be a Bellwether 2023 Market

Richard Jones

The US housing market is poised for a tough couple of years. A mix of challenging supply/demand dynamics, combined with stretched affordability and deteriorating sentiment, will weigh on the market.

Bloomberg TV Interview: How Markets Are Kicking Off 2023 Trading

Macro Hive

Bilal Hafeez joined Bloomberg Europe close on 9th January 2023 to give his view on the year ahead.

  1. Ep. 143: Agathe Demarais on How Sanctions Backfire on the US 

    Bilal Hafeez

    Agathe Demarais is the Global Forecasting Director of The Economist Intelligence Unit. Agathe has a special focus on trade, sanctions, European affairs, Russia and the Middle East...

  2. Nothing Flows as Freely as Money

    Richard Jones

    In this article, we explore Jay Newman's recent work of fiction, Undermoney, which looks at the opaque world of money, its influence, and how capital is moved around the world.  

  3. Ep. 142: Shannon O’Neil on What Everyone Gets Wrong About (De)Globalisation

    Bilal Hafeez

    Shannon O'Neil is the vice president, deputy director of studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is an expert on global trade, supply chains...

Charts of the Week – Railroad and Electric Vehicle Woes

Matthew Tibble

US labour market issues persist, as is evident at railroad companies. ETFs for electric vehicles make little sense, according to John. And South Africa's political troubles are impacting the rand and stocks.

Ep. 139: Gerard DiPippo on CIA, US-China Tech War, and Taiwan Risks 

Bilal Hafeez

Gerard is a senior fellow with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He joined CSIS after nearly 11 years in the U.S. intelligence community.

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