- In the DM world, the US and Portugal top the list with a 1% increase in cases. Nearly half of all US states are reporting a rise in cases, while in the past week Portugal has seen Europe’s second worst per capita case increase, after Sweden. And while other increases look low, recent clusters in France (Rouen, NW of Paris) and Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia) are evident. The Netherlands has seen a relatively low increase (just 0.2%), possibly triggering recent anti-lockdown protests that resulted in the arrest of 400 people. On deaths, numbers have visibly dropped since last week with no significant increases in DM.
- In the EM world, we have South Africa and Brazil leading today with 5% increases. The latter recently passed the 50k death toll, being second only to the US. The pandemic is also on the verge of producing irreparable cultural damage with the virus now impacting indigenous communities. Argentina recorded a 4% daily increase and officials will announce today whether Buenos Aires will remain in lockdown. Mexico sees a 3% increase, reporting 5,300 new cases yesterday, with a high probability of many more undetected. Chile’s cases increased 2% and Santiago is now the city with the fourth largest number of cases in the world after NY, Moscow, and Sao Paulo. Overall, Latam and the Caribbean have exceed 2mn cases. In Asia, Hong Kong reported 30 new cases over the weekend. On deaths, Mexico tops with a 5% increase. It is followed by Pakistan, Egypt, Colombia, and Chile which have a 4% increase.
- In the past week, DM has seen a 26% aggregate drop in cases per capita, versus a 4% increase in EM (Asia and EMEA dropped but Latam increased). On deaths, DM has dropped 41% versus a 17% increase for EM.
- Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
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- In DM, Sweden is now in the declining wave while the US, Portugal and Australia are now in new wave quadrant. Germany and France are moving towards new wave given the recent spike in cases. Most other countries remain in the declining quadrant or moving towards it.
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- In EM, the situation remains more diversified. Apart from the usual peak wave cluster of Latam, some Asian and African countries, we see Hong Kong and Czech Republic worsening over the weekend. China also continues to see cases increase. Taiwan, Hungary, and Thailand remain the best positioned.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
