By Bilal Hafeez Sam van de Schootbrugge 02-09-2020

Global COVID-19 Tracker – Spain And France Reach 1st Wave Infection Rates

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• Over the last week, the world registered 1.8mn new COVID-19 cases (Chart 1), a weekly rise of 7%. Overall, 25.4mn cases have now been recorded, with deaths totalling 849,400. There are just twelve Coronavirus-free countries on earth – Palau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Samoa, Vanuatu and Tonga (Turkmenistan and North Korea are also on the list).
• On average, 25 new cases per 100,000 population were recorded across our sample over the last 7 days. Argentina reported the largest weekly rise in cases per 100,000 population (148), followed by Israel (140) and Colombia (131). New daily infections are rising fastest in Argentina (18.6%), Hungary (18%), Greece (17%) and India (16%). The largest weekly changes in 3d moving averages (Table 1) were in Hungary (575%), Portugal (84%) and Norway (67%).
• US coronavirus infections have now passed 6mn, with 5% of those recorded over the last seven days (290,000). The weekly change in 3d moving average (cases) is down 17%, and the same statistic for deaths is down a further 2% (Chart 2). The same figure is down 5% for deaths.
• Many European countries are seeing infection rates rise (Chart 3) and are now in the midst of a second wave. Our Scatter Chart shows that, for the majority of European countries, the 3d moving average (cases) is above the 50th percentile (bottom right quadrant). Notable statistics are:
  • Over the last week, the world registered 1.8mn new COVID-19 cases (Chart 1), a weekly rise of 7%. Overall, 25.4mn cases have now been recorded, with deaths totalling 849,400. There are just twelve Coronavirus-free countries on earth – Palau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Samoa, Vanuatu and Tonga (Turkmenistan and North Korea are also on the list).
  • On average, 25 new cases per 100,000 population were recorded across our sample over the last 7 days. Argentina reported the largest weekly rise in cases per 100,000 population (148), followed by Israel (140) and Colombia (131). New daily infections are rising fastest in Argentina (18.6%), Hungary (18%), Greece (17%) and India (16%). The largest weekly changes in 3d moving averages (Table 1) were in Hungary (575%), Portugal (84%) and Norway (67%).
  • US coronavirus infections have now passed 6mn, with 5% of those recorded over the last seven days (290,000). The weekly change in 3d moving average (cases) is down 17%, and the same statistic for deaths is down a further 2% (Chart 2). The same figure is down 5% for deaths.
  • Many European countries are seeing infection rates rise (Chart 3) and are now in the midst of a second wave. Our Scatter Chart shows that, for the majority of European countries, the 3d moving average (cases) is above the 50th percentile (bottom right quadrant). Notable statistics are:
    • Greece recorded 1,500 new cases last week, increasing the total figure by 17%. The number of cases per 100,000 population now stands at 99, up by 14 over the last seven days. The country only recorded 24 COVID-19 related deaths over the same period (Chart 4).
    • Infections are rising fastest in Hungary. The country recorded 1,000 new cases, or 10 case per 100,000 population. As a result, the 3d ma has spiked and is by far the highest on our list. In all, 6,100 cases have been recorded in the country.
    • In terms of the number of new cases, Spain has recorded the most – close to 50,000 (or 102 per 100,000) in seven days. This has increased the total number by 12% and the 3d ma by 22%. The latter figure is now at similar levels to the first wave (Chart 5). Deaths are far lower than during the first wave, but the country recorded 222 new deaths last week.
    • France is also struggling to curb new infections as it surpasses first-wave infection rates. Over the last seven days, 36,500 cases have been recorded (up from 25,900 in the previous week). Cases per 100,000 population now stand at 489, a rise of 56. The weekly change in 3d ma is also up 34%.
    • Last week, Portugal recorded more than the 20 cases per 100,000 guideline that governments use for quarantine restrictions. It recorded a figure of 22.5, and the 3d moving average increased 84% over the week.
    • Finally, the UK posted 14 new cases per 100,000 population. In total, this amounts to just under 10,000 new cases and a weekly change in the 3d ma of 27%. The country recorded 69 deaths over the same weekly period, amounting to a 46% drop in the 3d ma.
  • Across the rest of the world:
    • India is now recording the highest number of cases per week. The country registered 524,000 new cases over the last seven days, the equivalent of 38 new cases per 100,000 population.
    • Cases in Israel seem to have reached a peak (graphs below). The country recoded an 11% rise in the total number of cases last week, equivalent to 12,000 new cases.
    • Brazil, Argentina and Colombia continue to post high numbers. Argentina seems to be in the peak of its wave, posting new daily figures in the 97th percentile.
    • The Philippines is posting one of the highest percentile death figures on the list. The country recorded 550 new deaths over the last seven days.

For more information, we provide a comprehensive list of charts, diagrams and tables below.



























 

 

 

 

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)