Robin Wilkin
One market risk has been taken away with the agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Yet, the recent data leaves it more likely the Fed will remain on hold in June as they have suggested although recent Fed comments have been mixed in regard to hike or hold.
Dalvir Mandara
Crypto markets have trickled higher over the past week with markets failing to price a June FOMC hike despite a debt ceiling resolution and monstrous NFP outturn.
Robin Wilkin
Perhaps due to the risks around the debt ceiling and the USD rallying, crypto is continuing to ignore the move and de-couple from the Nasdaq. The technical outlook still views the price action as corrective.
Dalvir Mandara
Crypto markets have tracked lower this week as investors digested the potential of a US debt default as well as comments from the latest FOMC minutes.
Robin Wilkin
The macro backdrop has been complicated by the US debt ceiling debacle. However, on the basis that it gets resolved, recent data has pushed market pricing back towards further tightening from the Fed and he risk we are still in between mid-late cycle...
Dalvir Mandara
U.S dollar strength. The correlation between bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is typically negative, and the upward momentum of the DXY throughout the week has weighed on crypto markets.
Robin Wilkin
US rates remain in a choppy corrective range, even after the recent Fed meeting and CPI print this week. Considerable focus has been shifted onto employment – the 4-week moving average of US jobless claims this week rising out of the recent range – as that is considered a key to equity performance going forward.
Dalvir Mandara
April CPI showed no incremental progress on disinflation. Here are some of our main takeaways:
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
Trading View (next 2-4 weeks): We like to be slightly bearish ethereum. Investment View (next 1-3 years): We like to hold ethereum.
Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara
We look at the latest bitcoin trends, including macro risks and on-chain/flow metrics, to reveal the best time to buy bitcoin and the risks of buying BTC.
Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara
We look at the latest ethereum trends, including macro risks and on-chain/flow metrics, to reveal the best time to buy ethereum and the risks of buying ETH.
Robin Wilkin
This was one of the lowest volatility weeks we have seen this year, considering the Fed and ECB raised rates. While the Fed shifted a little more to being data dependent, the ECB retained a far more hawkish stance.
Dalvir Mandara
The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked 25bps on Wednesday, in line with market consensus and our own expectations. Crypto markets, having experienced an uptick after the news, appear to be pricing in the end of the tightening cycle.
Robin Wilkin
A big macro week is ahead with a plethora of central bank meetings, but the focus is obviously on the Fed and forward guidance. For crypto, it will be the effect this has on the US equity market, but particularly the Nasdaq.
Dalvir Mandara
It has been a volatile week for crypto markets. Bitcoin started to rally on Tuesday as trust eroded in the banking system – First Republic Bank’s shares were down -50% after it announced a $100bn drop in deposits in the first quarter a day earlier.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
March US CPI showed no incremental progress on disinflation (a smaller decrease in used car prices offset a slower increase in shelter costs).
Robin Wilkin
While the macro environment remains complicated, the recent higher inflation readings out of the UK and the stronger than expected US PMI readings keep the focus on central banks still in tightening mode.
Dalvir Mandara
This week, crypto markets sold off as markets refuelled expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike 25bps in May and June, following a hotter-than-expected UK inflation print (headline: +10.1% YoY, core: +6.2%).
Robin Wilkin
The macro environment remains complicated. While the banking crisis seems to have abated for now, the market is still grappling with the view the Fed will have to cut rates in H2.
Bitcoin and the crypto revolution are no longer nascent. With the length of the blockchain continuing to grow and decentralised finance (DeFi) gaining ground over traditional finance, this new asset class is reshaping the investment landscape.
To invest in cryptocurrency, we must first understand it. Crypto tokens are unlike any traditional asset class. And they are all different. Just because you understand bitcoin, does not mean you know how ethereum works.
Each currency has different underlying protocols and technology. That impacts how they trade, their volatility, and how you can value them. Some are more like stocks, others commodities, and others currencies. And each crypto token has a unique structure of supply.
We think crypto markets are a worthwhile long-term investment. The technology can capture market share on some existing markets like payments and stock trading while creating new markets like valuable scarce digital assets.
Your exposure to bitcoin needs to be appropriately sized so that you can survive 50% to 80% drawdowns. Drawdowns provide good entry levels for exposure, but we would not go max long in an environment of rising central bank rates and falling global growth momentum.
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