Sam van de Schootbrugge

By Sam van de Schootbrugge February 24, 2021

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Can the S&P 500 Help Forecast Changes in the USD?

February 24, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper examines which models are best for forecasting the nominal exchange rate. It finds evidence that the…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge February 19, 2021

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities FX

Which Countries Will Reach Covid-19 Herd Immunity in 2021?

February 19, 2021

Summary Vaccination rollouts are accelerating, and global Covid-19 cases are dropping. Early data from Israel suggests vaccinations are working, with hospitalised patients’…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge February 17, 2021

In: Deep Dives | China & Hong Kong Growth & Labour Market

What Is Driving Chinese Growth?

February 17, 2021

Summary A BIS working paper creates a new alternative measure for estimating China GDP growth. The measure uses provincial macroeconomic data and…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge February 11, 2021

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

US House Prices Outperforming Expectations

February 11, 2021

Summary The US housing market had a stellar year in 2020, recording YoY growth rates last seen in 2005. Housing transaction data…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge February 10, 2021

In: Deep Dives | Economics Investment Strategy

Successful Start-Ups Build Strong Founding Teams

February 10, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper investigates the importance of founding members to the long-term success of start-ups. Start-ups with higher-than-average skills…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge February 03, 2021

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Investment Strategy

Beware of Trading on Your Smartphone

February 03, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper measures how behaviours such as risk-taking, preference for lottery stocks and trend chasing vary depending on…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge February 02, 2021

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

Monthly UK House Prices Fall, But Which Areas Benefited Most During the Pandemic?

February 02, 2021

Summary Nationwide figures show a 0.3% MoM fall in house prices, the first in six months. Annual growth rates have dropped but…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge January 27, 2021

In: Deep Dives | China & Hong Kong Equities

US-China Trade Relations: Which Equity Markets Are Most Affected?

January 27, 2021

Summary A new BIS working paper uses deep learning methods to assess the impact of US-China trade sentiment on up to 60…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge January 20, 2021

In: Deep Dives | Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

The Best Methods For Measuring Cryptocurrency Market Liquidity

January 20, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Banking and Finance paper explores how best to measure liquidity in cryptocurrency markets using only low-frequency data.…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge January 18, 2021

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market UK

UK House Price Growth Losing Steam

January 18, 2021

Summary Average asking prices fell 0.9% on last month, according to the latest Rightmove data. YoY changes remain positive, but early-pandemic momentum…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge January 13, 2021

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Economics Fiscal Policy & Inequality

What Determines How Wealthy You Become?

January 13, 2021

Summary A new NBER paper explores the origins of wealth using a unique granular dataset. They find labour income drives wealth inequality…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge January 06, 2021

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology US

Which Jobs Will AI Take Over?

January 06, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper reveals a recent surge in job listings requiring AI-specific skills, based on Burning Glass job vacancy…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge December 16, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

Rethinking The Traditional Measure Of Inflation

December 16, 2020

Summary Inflation expectations are an important component of Central Bank inflation measures. Using household and firm survey data, the Bank of Canada…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge December 15, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Europe US

Which US Sectors Continue To Gain From Vaccine News?

December 15, 2020

COVID vaccine rollout has begun. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is now approved for use in the US, UK and several other…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge December 09, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Economics

Can Google Trends Accurately Forecast GDP Growth?

December 09, 2020

Summary The OECD has created a Weekly GDP Growth tracker using 263 Google Trends search topics. The tracker is highly correlated with…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge December 02, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Economics

An Economic Framework To Value Bitcoin

December 02, 2020

Summary The challenge of valuing bitcoin lies mainly in identifying how token-holders will use the currency moving forward. With it being a…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 25, 2020

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

FX Volatility At Risk From Pandemic

November 25, 2020

Summary: The US, EU, Japan and China account for 50% of world GDP. Their exchange rates have been experiencing a long-term secular…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 23, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Europe US

US vs Europe: A COVID Comparison In Charts

November 23, 2020

Summary US COVID cases are rising quickly and could continue to rise for at least another two weeks. The latest research estimates…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 20, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | DM EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Key Events: Week of 23 November

November 20, 2020

Monetary Policy Next Thursday, we have policy rate announcements from the Riksbank and BoK. On speeches, Deputy Governor’s of the Bank of…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 18, 2020

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Economics

Will Remote Working Remain After COVID?

November 18, 2020

Summary Up to half of US workers have been working from home during the pandemic. Employees and managers alike view this transition…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 16, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Prof. Justin Stebbing

November 16, 2020

Introduction Following last week’s vaccine news from Pfizer, we welcomed Professor Justin Stebbing back onto our podcast show. We first interviewed Justin…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 13, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | DM EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Key Events: Week of 16 November

November 13, 2020

Monetary Policy Policy rates are due to be announced by the South African, Turkish, and Indonesian Central Banks this week. On speeches,…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 11, 2020

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Markets and Investing

Which US Sectors Are Most Excited About A Vaccine?

November 11, 2020

Summary US GDP data reveals hospitality and mining suffered most during COVID-19 first wave. Around 60% of US workers are employed in…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 09, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Which Countries Are Set To Benefit Most From A Vaccine?

November 09, 2020

Summary Pfizer has just reported promising results for their COVID vaccine. A vaccine is likely to help economies whose sectors have been…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 05, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

An Update On The Global Pandemic

November 05, 2020

Summary 1% of Belgium’s population contracted the virus last week. This is the highest weekly increase in population-adjusted cases on record. France,…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge November 04, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Markets and Investing

Do Analysts Top Pick Recommendations Make Money?

November 04, 2020

Summary Investors and media outlets pay significant attention to analysts’ ‘top pick’ stock recommendations. This attention is justified: the picks offer large…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 30, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

The US Third Wave: Which States Fare Worse Pre-Election?

October 30, 2020

Just days away from the US election, the public health debate continues to dominate this year’s campaign. Here is an update on…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 28, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

Digital Money: Why, When, And What It Could Mean

October 28, 2020

Introduction The transition to digital money is inevitable and imminent. According to the BIS, at least a fifth of the world’s population…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 19, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Is COVID-19 Beginning To Transmit To The Vulnerable?

October 19, 2020

Overview Last week, France, Italy, Germany and the UK all recorded their largest daily increase in new cases since mass testing began…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 14, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues

Which Country Has the Best-Quality Elites?

October 14, 2020

Executive Summary Elite members of economies currently face intense scrutiny, yet not all are created equal. Academics at the University of St.…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 12, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

The UK’s ‘Bleak Mathematics’

October 12, 2020

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiling a new three-level alert system, we look at the ongoing COVID-19 developments in the UK. Cases…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 09, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Which Country Has The Cheapest iPhone?

October 09, 2020

Apple’s October ‘special event’ is just one week away, spelling the arrival of a new iPhone – probably the 12. In the…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 07, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Why ETFs Don’t Always Follow Their Underlying Market

October 07, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most popular investment vehicles. However, there have been persistent concerns…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge October 01, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Mobility And COVID-19 Cases Are Correlating With Equities

October 01, 2020

Summary: Deaths reach 1 million, placing COVID-19 among the top 20 deadliest pandemics Average daily deaths are now higher than most leading…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge September 30, 2020

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

How Market Liquidity Disappeared During The COVID-19 Crisis

September 30, 2020

The Essence of the Piece The Fed conducted a study on Treasury market liquidity during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. They…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge September 29, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics US

How Do Markets Trade Around US Elections?

September 29, 2020

Going into this year’s US presidential election, we have a Republican incumbent whose party currently holds majority control in the Senate but…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge September 23, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure FX Investment Strategy

Excess Returns In FX Volatility Markets

September 23, 2020

The academic paper we review this week shows that a carry trade in volatility, a long-short strategy that buys implied volatility at…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge September 22, 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Are Fewer COVID-19 Deaths Causing Complacency?

September 22, 2020

As the COVID-19 second wave takes hold, differences in government responses appear unable to explain differences in infection rates across European countries.…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge September 16, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Credit

How Big Tech Lenders Will Disrupt The Business Cycle

September 16, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell A new BIS paper finds that Big Tech lenders using big data to assess creditworthiness hold informational…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge September 09, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

How Bitcoin Prices Are Manipulated

September 09, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell From 1 March 2017 to 31 March 2018, the actual Bitcoin price rose from around $1,191 to…

By Sam van de Schootbrugge September 02, 2020

In: Deep Dives | Economics Investment Strategy

High-Frequency Capital Flow Proxies Are Good At Predicting BoP Flows

September 02, 2020

Introduction Policymakers need timely information on capital flows to inform decisions on monetary policy and foreign exchange intervention. Official balance of payments…