Sam van de Schootbrugge

Macro Hive Author

If you would like to connect and contact the author,
please email meettheresearchers@macrohive.com
SPECIALITY: Economics,

Sam van de Schootbrugge is a Macro Research Analyst at Macro Hive, currently completing his PhD in international finance. He has a master’s degree in economic research from the University of Cambridge and has worked in research roles for over 3 years in both the public and private sector.

MY ARTICLES

In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

If the Fed Hikes, How Should EMs Respond?

July 28, 2021

Summary A new Fed working paper examines the US monetary policy spillovers to EMs, distinguishing between rate hikes arising from stronger demand…

In: Deep Dives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Can Fiscal Policy Save Us From Rising Inequality?

July 21, 2021

Summary A new IMF working paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of past pandemics. The recovery from Covid-19 may be slower and more…

In: Deep Dives | Equities

Think Long-Term Investing Is Safe? Think Again

July 14, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Financial Economics paper examines equity returns over 170 years to test whether investing in stocks over long…

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Distrust of Fiat Money Is Not Enough to Invest in Crypto

July 07, 2021

Summary A new BIS working paper finds cryptocurrency investors tend to be young, educated, digital native males. Their overarching motivation to invest…

In: Deep Dives | ESG & Climate Change

America’s EV Adoption Hopes Hinge on Electric Trucks

June 30, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper predicts US electric vehicle adoption for 2035 using current car buyer patterns, charging infrastructure and government…

In: Deep Dives | FX

Uncovered Interest Rate Parity – A Central Concept in International Finance

June 23, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper revisits the uncovered interest rate parity condition using survey data on exchange rate expectations. There are…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

How Will Equities Respond to England Winning Euro 2020?

June 18, 2021

The biggest European football tournament of 2020 has started – in 2021. France is the bookmakers’ favourite to win Euro 2020, but…

In: Deep Dives | Miscellaneous

One Hundred Deep Dives, And Inflation Tops The Charts

June 16, 2021

One of our most iconic offerings at Macro Hive is the weekly Deep Dive. For it, we review academic papers that are…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

US Dips Below Global Average on Vaccination Rates

June 09, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details: Global Outlook: This week, an average of 34.5mn…

In: Deep Dives | Economics

The End of Financial Districts?

June 09, 2021

Summary Stanford University researchers quantify Covid-19’s effects on real estate markets within and across US cities. They find real estate demand has…

In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Be Careful, Inflation Expectations Are Not Anchored!

June 02, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper shows that existing US surveys of professional forecasters and households poorly proxy firms’ inflation expectations. Their…

In: Deep Dives | Global

How Have Global Capital Flows Changed?

May 26, 2021

Summary A new BIS working paper explains how trends in capital flows have changed since the GFC. It highlights a decline in…

In: Hive Exclusives | Real Estate UK

Housing and Rental Prices to Rise on UK’s Pandemic Exit

May 18, 2021

Summary Average asking prices rose 1.8% on last month, 2.5 times higher than the average May increase over the last decade. Realtors…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe

Europe Overtakes UK, US On Vaccination Rates

May 12, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve included China into our table, broken US and…

In: Deep Dives | Bonds Economic Growth US

Predicting Economic Downturns Using US Treasury Futures

May 12, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Financial Economics paper finds that the implied volatility from options on five-year Treasury note futures can predict…

In: Deep Dives | COVID

Will Working From Home Outlast the Pandemic?

May 05, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper examines the latest survey data to see if working from home will outlive Covid. They find…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID UK

Weekly Vaccination Update: The UK Reaches a Pivotal Mark

May 05, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details: Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2, Tables 1):…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

How Inflation Drivers Are Changing

May 04, 2021

Summary Inflation across G4 countries is tied to a common ‘global component’ that includes commodity prices, world trade and demand in major…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID US

Weekly Vaccination Update: US Vaccination Rates Face Largest Setback Yet

April 28, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details: Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2, Tables 1):…

In: Deep Dives | Credit

How Costly Are Contractions In Bank Credit?

April 28, 2021

Summary A new IMF working paper examines the importance of bank lending in periods of economic expansion and assesses how a lack…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Weekly Vaccination Update: Global Vaccinations Fall

April 21, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve added the Q2 supply schedule for EU member…

In: Deep Dives | Europe

Who Will Be Europe’s Biggest Carbon Tax Loser?

April 21, 2021

Summary A $75 carbon tax could affect up to 150,000 manufacturing jobs in the largest EU countries. The jobs could either be…

In: Deep Dives | Global

Can Optimised Portfolios Deliver What They Promise?

April 14, 2021

Summary A new Review of Financial Studies paper examines the pitfalls of mean-variance portfolio optimisation. It finds that historical sample moments are…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe

Weekly Vaccination Update: J&J Pause and EU Supply Schedule

April 14, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve added some brief commentary on the Johnson &…

In: Deep Dives | Commodities Economic Growth

How Commodity Prices Can Predict Banking Crises

April 07, 2021

Summary A new Journal of International Economics paper explores the link between commodity prices and financial stability in low-income countries. It finds…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Weekly Vaccination Update: Vaccination Rates Higher in DM Countries

April 07, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. This week, we’ve added infographics to the table,…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 31, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. This week, we’ve added some charts on Israel,…

In: Deep Dives | Real Estate

Can Big Data Help Forecast House Prices?

March 31, 2021

Summary One of big data’s many benefits is that it can supplement lower-frequency macroeconomic data with daily series across a wide range…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 24, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest vaccination developments globally. This week, we’ve added Thailand to the…

In: Deep Dives | ESG & Climate Change

How Valuable Is ‘Green’ Investment?

March 24, 2021

Summary Every dollar spent on carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities generates over a dollar’s worth of economic activity, finds a new IMF working…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 17, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest global vaccine developments. This week, we’ve added more detail on…

In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

When Can You Trust a Forecaster?

March 17, 2021

Summary A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper documents systematic differences in forecasting accuracy among participants of the ECB’s SPF. Forecaster…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 11, 2021

Vaccination rollouts are well underway. In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. On the details:…

In: Deep Dives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality

Household and Corporate Debt: Covid vs the GFC

March 10, 2021

Summary A new FEDS note finds that the CARES act has significantly reduced the share of US borrowers in delinquency and/or forbearance.…

In: Deep Dives | COVID Equities

Do ESG Ratings Affect IPO Valuations?

March 03, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Corporate Finance paper shows that higher country-level ESG ratings are associated with lower IPO underpricing. IPOs issued…

In: Deep Dives | Equities FX

Can the S&P 500 Help Forecast Changes in the USD?

February 24, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper examines which models are best for forecasting the nominal exchange rate. It finds evidence that the…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Equities FX Global

Which Countries Will Reach Covid-19 Herd Immunity in 2021?

February 19, 2021

Summary Vaccination rollouts are accelerating, and global Covid-19 cases are dropping. Early data from Israel suggests vaccinations are working, with hospitalised patients’…

In: Deep Dives | Asia China Economic Growth

What Is Driving Chinese Growth?

February 17, 2021

Summary A BIS working paper creates a new alternative measure for estimating China GDP growth. The measure uses provincial macroeconomic data and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Real Estate US

US House Prices Outperforming Expectations

February 11, 2021

Summary The US housing market had a stellar year in 2020, recording YoY growth rates last seen in 2005. Housing transaction data…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth Equities

Successful Start-Ups Build Strong Founding Teams

February 10, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper investigates the importance of founding members to the long-term success of start-ups. Start-ups with higher-than-average skills…

In: Deep Dives | Global

Beware of Trading on Your Smartphone

February 03, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper measures how behaviours such as risk-taking, preference for lottery stocks and trend chasing vary depending on…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Real Estate UK

Monthly UK House Prices Fall, But Which Areas Benefited Most During the Pandemic?

February 02, 2021

Summary Nationwide figures show a 0.3% MoM fall in house prices, the first in six months. Annual growth rates have dropped but…

In: Deep Dives | Asia China Equities Politics & Geopolitics US

US-China Trade Relations: Which Equity Markets Are Most Affected?

January 27, 2021

Summary A new BIS working paper uses deep learning methods to assess the impact of US-China trade sentiment on up to 60…

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

The Best Methods For Measuring Cryptocurrency Market Liquidity

January 20, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Banking and Finance paper explores how best to measure liquidity in cryptocurrency markets using only low-frequency data.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality Real Estate UK

UK House Price Growth Losing Steam

January 18, 2021

Summary Average asking prices fell 0.9% on last month, according to the latest Rightmove data. YoY changes remain positive, but early-pandemic momentum…

In: Deep Dives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality

What Determines How Wealthy You Become?

January 13, 2021

Summary A new NBER paper explores the origins of wealth using a unique granular dataset. They find labour income drives wealth inequality…

In: Deep Dives | Labour Market & Inequality US

Which Jobs Will AI Take Over?

January 06, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper reveals a recent surge in job listings requiring AI-specific skills, based on Burning Glass job vacancy…

In: Deep Dives | Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

Rethinking The Traditional Measure Of Inflation

December 16, 2020

Summary Inflation expectations are an important component of Central Bank inflation measures. Using household and firm survey data, the Bank of Canada…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Equities Europe UK US

Which US Sectors Continue To Gain From Vaccine News?

December 15, 2020

COVID vaccine rollout has begun. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is now approved for use in the US, UK and several other…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth Global

Can Google Trends Accurately Forecast GDP Growth?

December 09, 2020

Summary The OECD has created a Weekly GDP Growth tracker using 263 Google Trends search topics. The tracker is highly correlated with…

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

An Economic Framework To Value Bitcoin

December 02, 2020

Summary The challenge of valuing bitcoin lies mainly in identifying how token-holders will use the currency moving forward. With it being a…

In: Deep Dives | COVID FX Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

FX Volatility At Risk From Pandemic

November 25, 2020

Summary: The US, EU, Japan and China account for 50% of world GDP. Their exchange rates have been experiencing a long-term secular…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe US

US vs Europe: A COVID Comparison In Charts

November 23, 2020

Summary US COVID cases are rising quickly and could continue to rise for at least another two weeks. The latest research estimates…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 23 November

November 20, 2020

Monetary Policy Next Thursday, we have policy rate announcements from the Riksbank and BoK. On speeches, Deputy Governor’s of the Bank of…

In: Deep Dives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality

Will Remote Working Remain After COVID?

November 18, 2020

Summary Up to half of US workers have been working from home during the pandemic. Employees and managers alike view this transition…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Prof. Justin Stebbing

November 16, 2020

Introduction Following last week’s vaccine news from Pfizer, we welcomed Professor Justin Stebbing back onto our podcast show. We first interviewed Justin…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 16 November

November 13, 2020

Monetary Policy Policy rates are due to be announced by the South African, Turkish, and Indonesian Central Banks this week. On speeches,…

In: Deep Dives | COVID Economic Growth Equities Labour Market & Inequality US

Which US Sectors Are Most Excited About A Vaccine?

November 11, 2020

Summary US GDP data reveals hospitality and mining suffered most during COVID-19 first wave. Around 60% of US workers are employed in…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Which Countries Are Set To Benefit Most From A Vaccine?

November 09, 2020

Summary Pfizer has just reported promising results for their COVID vaccine. A vaccine is likely to help economies whose sectors have been…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

An Update On The Global Pandemic

November 05, 2020

Summary 1% of Belgium’s population contracted the virus last week. This is the highest weekly increase in population-adjusted cases on record. France,…

In: Deep Dives | Equities

Do Analysts Top Pick Recommendations Make Money?

November 04, 2020

Summary Investors and media outlets pay significant attention to analysts’ ‘top pick’ stock recommendations. This attention is justified: the picks offer large…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID US

The US Third Wave: Which States Fare Worse Pre-Election?

October 30, 2020

Just days away from the US election, the public health debate continues to dominate this year’s campaign. Here is an update on…

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Digital Money: Why, When, And What It Could Mean

October 28, 2020

Introduction The transition to digital money is inevitable and imminent. According to the BIS, at least a fifth of the world’s population…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Is COVID-19 Beginning To Transmit To The Vulnerable?

October 19, 2020

Overview Last week, France, Italy, Germany and the UK all recorded their largest daily increase in new cases since mass testing began…

In: Deep Dives | ESG & Climate Change Global Labour Market & Inequality

Which Country Has the Best-Quality Elites?

October 14, 2020

Executive Summary Elite members of economies currently face intense scrutiny, yet not all are created equal. Academics at the University of St.…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID UK

The UK’s ‘Bleak Mathematics’

October 12, 2020

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiling a new three-level alert system, we look at the ongoing COVID-19 developments in the UK. Cases…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

Which Country Has The Cheapest iPhone?

October 09, 2020

Apple’s October ‘special event’ is just one week away, spelling the arrival of a new iPhone – probably the 12. In the…

In: Deep Dives | Equities

Why ETFs Don’t Always Follow Their Underlying Market

October 07, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most popular investment vehicles. However, there have been persistent concerns…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Mobility And COVID-19 Cases Are Correlating With Equities

October 01, 2020

Summary: Deaths reach 1 million, placing COVID-19 among the top 20 deadliest pandemics Average daily deaths are now higher than most leading…

Market Liquidity

In: Deep Dives | Bonds COVID Equities FX

How Market Liquidity Disappeared During The COVID-19 Crisis

September 30, 2020

The Essence of the Piece The Fed conducted a study on Treasury market liquidity during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. They…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Equities FX Politics & Geopolitics US

How Do Markets Trade Around US Elections?

September 29, 2020

Going into this year’s US presidential election, we have a Republican incumbent whose party currently holds majority control in the Senate but…

In: Deep Dives | FX

Excess Returns In FX Volatility Markets

September 23, 2020

The academic paper we review this week shows that a carry trade in volatility, a long-short strategy that buys implied volatility at…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Are Fewer COVID-19 Deaths Causing Complacency?

September 22, 2020

 As the COVID-19 second wave takes hold, differences in government responses appear unable to explain differences in infection rates across European countries.…

In: Deep Dives | Credit

How Big Tech Lenders Will Disrupt The Business Cycle

September 16, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell A new BIS paper finds that Big Tech lenders using big data to assess creditworthiness hold informational…

BTC

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

How Bitcoin Prices Are Manipulated

September 09, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell From 1 March 2017 to 31 March 2018, the actual Bitcoin price rose from around $1,191 to…

In: Deep Dives | Global

High-Frequency Capital Flow Proxies Are Good At Predicting BoP Flows

September 02, 2020

Introduction Policymakers need timely information on capital flows to inform decisions on monetary policy and foreign exchange intervention. Official balance of payments…

US Election Ballot

In: Deep Dives | Equities Politics & Geopolitics US

US Elections And Stock Market Performance

August 26, 2020

With the US presidential elections a little over two months away, what can we infer from the existing body of literature around…

Hedge Funds and Asset Managers

In: Deep Dives | Bonds UK

How Hedge Funds And Asset Managers Make Money In Bonds

August 19, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell There has always been a question of how hedge funds and asset managers make money. By exploiting…

In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

FinTech And BigTech Are Taking Over

August 12, 2020

The Context A new IMF paper looks at how innovations in information and communication have (i) provided greater opportunities for new financial…

Coronavirus Immigration

In: Deep Dives | COVID ESG & Climate Change

Early Border Closures Can Control COVID-19 Caseloads

August 05, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. Almost no country has…

Mobility

In: Deep Dives | COVID Global

Mobility, Not Lockdown Easing, Will Drive The Recovery

July 29, 2020

Changing Behaviour is More Important Than Easing Lockdown Measures The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt both health and economic blows. As new data…

In: Deep Dives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality US

Trump Tax Cuts – Which Sectors Were the Eventual Winners?

July 22, 2020

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – Some Win, Some Lose, Markets Got It Wrong On the 22 December 2017, President Trump…

In: Deep Dives | Labour Market & Inequality US

US Labour Market Data Is Calculated Incorrectly

July 01, 2020

A provocative new paper argues that US labour market data contains several biases that systematically understate the level of unemployment in the…

In: Deep Dives | Bonds Equities

Rethinking Stock Valuations Using A Bond Dividend Approach

June 24, 2020

The global economy’s problematic re-emergence from the Great Recession revived interest in Alvin Hansen’s 1939 secular stagnation hypothesis…

China Yuan

In: Deep Dives | Asia China FX

China’s Strategy To Make CNY The Dominant International Currency

June 17, 2020

In 2016, the IMF included the Chinese renminbi (RMB) in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket with a weight of 10.9%. Prior to its inclusion, this…

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