Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Ben Ford
Bilal’s asset allocation will be updated in March. For now, the themes remain: Investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its hiking cycle soon.
Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document.
Ben Ford
The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have all hiked in February. Here are our latest views to survive in what follows:
Ben Ford
We are over halfway through January and our trades continue to hold up.
Ben Ford
Bilal continued to advocate the 'everything breaks' portfolio. He now has 2023 in sight: timing will prove critical as a likely Fed pivot, China reopening and better European energy outlook feed through into markets.
Ben Ford
John unwound his retail, US infrastructure and European equity index positions. He is now up 2% against the S&P 500.
Ben Ford
John unwound his short semiconductor trade for an oversized profit. He is now considering when to turn long (vs S&P 500).
Ben Ford
John launched a new framework for his US equity ETF biases. The methodology revealed that he is beating the S&P 500. You can follow him here.
Ben Ford
Bilal’s asset allocation remains unchanged: overweight cash, neutral cash and commodities, and underweight equities and bonds.
Ben Ford
Our biases in Asia FX have registered strong returns. Now, we are making changes. We closed our bearish KRW position and turned bearish on SGD...
Ben Ford
‘Cash is king’ has become a favourite phrase of Bilal’s. He is yet to let it go – and for good reason. The market is finally catching up with our view that the Federal Reserve must...
Ben Ford
John left his US equity ETF biases However, in the process, he has strongly reiterated being underweight equities, homebuilders, and consumer staples, and overweight energy...
Ben Ford
John introduced biases to major indices: he is overweight S&P 500, and underweight NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and European indices. Meanwhile, on US sectors, he made eight changes...
Ben Ford
Preservation of capital is key; Bilal leaves his asset allocation unchanged: overweight cash, neutral commodities and crypto, and underweight equities and bonds.
Ben Ford
Remaining overweight US homebuilders, but wary of headwinds. We still see value in the housing sector due to a supply-demand imbalance but outline risks from Fed tightening.
Ben Ford
Neutral commodities. Bilal’s latest Asset Allocation sees market volatility and recession fears limiting near-term gains for commodities, switching from overweight to neutral.
Ben Ford
Cash remains king. The Fed recently hiked 75bps, and we think it could ultimately go higher than markets are pricing. As a result, recession odds have increased.
Ben Ford
We are in a bear market. And if recent earnings momentum weakens (as we expect), it will worsen.
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