By Bilal Hafeez Sam van de Schootbrugge 07-09-2020

Global COVID-19 Tracker – India Overtakes Brazil, UK Cases Rise

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  • Over the last week (31 August – 6 September), the world registered 1.8mn new COVID-19 cases (Chart 1), a weekly rise of 7%. An additional 35,700 new deaths have also been recorded, a weekly rise of 4%. Overall, 27mn cases have now been reported, with deaths totalling 882,100.
  • On average, 27 new cases per 100,000 population were recorded across our sample over the last 7 days. Israel reported the largest weekly rise in cases per 100,000 population (192), followed by Argentina (156) and Brazil (129). The largest weekly changes in 3d moving averages (for countries >5,000 cases) were in Norway (165%), Hungary (152%) and Denmark (92%).
  • US coronavirus infections now total 6.3mn, with 5% of those recorded over the last seven days (280,000). The weekly change in 3d moving average (cases) is down 3%, the smallest weekly decline since late July. Indeed, cases appear to be rising in 22 US states. The same moving average statistic for deaths is down 4%, as 5,880 new fatalities were reported over the last seven days (Chart 2).
  • India overtakes Brazil, after recording 90,632 cases in the last 24h and 571,100 across the week. Total cases stand at 4.2mn, or 298 cases per 100,000 population – 200 less than the average country in our sample. The weekly change in 3d moving average for cases and deaths is up 11% (Chart 3).
  • Many European countries are seeing infection rates rise (Chart 4) and are now in the midst of a second wave. Our Scatter Chart shows that, for the majority of European countries, the 3d moving average (cases) is above the 50th percentile (bottom right quadrant). Notable statistics are:
    • Hungary has recorded 2,400 new cases over the last seven days (or 25 per 100,000 population), increasing the overall COVID-19 number by 40% to 8,400. The 152% weekly rise in 3d ma, is the second largest in Europe (after Norway).
    • Last week, Spain reported the highest number of cases per 100,000 population (109) in Europe. The country is facing its worst infection rate to date – the 10d moving average figure is almost 20% higher than in the first wave and 59,000 new cases is a seven-day record. Deaths are far lower this time around, but the country recorded 407 new deaths last week.
    • Yesterday, the UK recorded its highest number of daily cases since 22 May. The weekly change in 3d ma is up 63%, the fourth highest in Europe, and has been increasing steadily (Chart 5). In total, 12,800 (or 19 per 100,000 pop) new cases were registered last week.
    • The weekly change in 3d ma is down 51% in France. The country still recorded the second highest number of cases in Europe (31,500), but 4,000 lower than the previous seven days. It is worth noting that France and Spain report figures on an infrequent basis. On deaths, the country recorded 120 new fatalities, decreasing the weekly 3d ma by 40%.
    • Portugal has not been added to the UK’s quarantine list, despite recording 24 cases per 100,000 population last week. On Saturday, the country recorded its largest single-day rise since May. The weekly change in 3d moving average is up 10%.
    • The UK seems to follow a weekly figure of 20 cases per 100,000 population as a threshold for quarantine restrictions. The following countries recorded more: Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Portugal, Luxembourg, Hungary and Malta.
  • Across the rest of the world:
    • Israel has the fourth-highest number of cases per 100,000 population (1,509). The country recorded 16,600 new cases last week, a large rise on the week before (Chart 6).
    • Cases in LATAM have seem to have plateaued. The weekly change in 3d ma has fallen for Brazil, Colombia and Argentina. The continent is still recording the second highest number of daily cases (after Asia).
    • Cases in Australia have fallen significantly. The monthly change in 3d ma is down 85% and the weekly figure is down 39%.

For more information, we provide a comprehensive list of charts, diagrams and tables below.





























 

 

 

 

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)