- Last week, the world registered 1.5mn new COVID-19 cases, a weekly rise of 7%. Total registered cases now stands at 21.6mn, with deaths totalling 773,300. The average number of cases per 100,000 population in our sample is 414. Chile has reported the highest number (2,019), followed by the US (1,632) and then Brazil (1,571).
- Colombia recorded the largest weekly rise in cases per 100,000 population (159). This equates to 81,000 new infections, increasing the total number of cases by a fifth. Deaths also rose by 2,250, behind only Mexico (4,450), Brazil (6,800), India (5,600) and the US (7,100).
- Since last week’s report, the 3d moving average in South Korea is up 500%, the highest in our sample (see table below). The country recorded 890 new cases, of which 315 were connected to a church. On Sunday, 279 cases were reported, the largest daily jump in five months.
- US coronavirus infections now stand at 5.4mn, with 7% of those recorded over the last seven days (350,000). The weekly change in 3d moving average is down by 5%, the monthly by 28%. This suggests the country is through its second peak. Data on deaths paints a more sobering image – 7,100 new deaths last week, with the 3d moving average up 3% on the week before.
- Many European countries are seeing infection rates rise (see graphs below) and are now in the midst of a second wave (see scatter below). Recent changes in restrictions are as follows:
- The UK announced that France, the Netherlands, Malta, Monaco, Turks and Caicos Islands, and Aruba will be removed from the quarantine-exemption list. The UK recorded 7,800 new cases last week and the 3d moving average is 70.7% higher than seven days ago (see table below).
- France’s public health agency warned that all the COVID-19 indicators are trending upward. It registered 17,700 new cases last week, increasing the total number of cases by 7.5%. In response, the country has proposed making masks mandatory at work.
- On Friday, Spain closed nightclubs as it faces the worst COVID-19 infection rate in Western Europe. The country registered over 20,000 new cases over the last seven days, or 45 per 100,000 population. This is the second highest in Europe after Malta (49).
- Denmark reported an 8% rise in new cases on last week. The country has the highest weekly change in 3d moving average on our list (138%) after South Korea (500%). In response, the government is to make face masks compulsory on public transport.
- Germany recorded its biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases in more than three months. It reported 7,700 new cases, or 9 per 100,000 population, last week. Warnings against non-essential travel have been extended to areas of Romania and Spain.
- Italy has also closed nightclubs and broadened rules on wearing protective masks. The country has recorded relatively fewer cases than other European countries – 3,300 or 5.5 per 100,000 population, increasing the total number of cases by 1.3%.
- In response to the rising infections in Greece, the government has imposed a 50-person limit on public gatherings and implemented curfews on restaurants and bars for some islands. Over the last week, total cases have increased by 25% (5,600), the highest in Europe.
- Elsewhere in Europe, Malta reported the highest weekly rise in population-adjusted cases (49). Belgium, Norway, Ireland, Finland and Portugal all saw their weekly change in 3d moving averages fall. Finally, Italy recorded the highest weekly number of deaths (191).
- Across the rest of the world, Australia continues to record new daily deaths above the 95th percentile (97), as do India (100) and the Philippines (99). India is also recording new daily cases in the 100th percentile, with 375,000 reported over the last week. New Zealand registered its first case in over 102 days. The country has since postponed elections as a result of the rise.
- In better news, weekly changes in 3d moving averages are down in several Asian, EMEA and Latin American countries. The largest falls are in South Africa (-33.2%) and Singapore (-54.5%).
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)