Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Private market activity has fallen in H1, with total vehicles closed down over 50%. Investment trusts exposed to the private market are currently trading at wide discounts to their NAV as low liquidity and fears over asset valuations hurt investor sentiment.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
We reduce our max overweight position in cash as the forward outlook requires a less defensive posture.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Strategies like the 60/40 portfolio gained in popularity due to the negative correlation between stocks and bonds. However, this is a more recent phenomena as the correlation was positive before the 2000s.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
We stay overweight cash and TIPS while maintaining our underweight allocation to equities, long-duration bonds, property, and private equity.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
This month, we expand the coverage of our asset class views and provide further granularity in each component.
Bilal Hafeez
While many were panicking about a 2008-style bank crisis, we cautioned against such predictions. So far, our view has been right.
Bilal Hafeez
In 2022, we outlined our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio, which meant constantly overweighting cash above all else.
Bilal Hafeez
2023 has started with a positive tone. Most risk markets from equities to crypto are up, and we identify four driving themes:
Bilal Hafeez
2022 will be remembered for many things. Investors, however, will remember it as the year of the worst ever bond market performance and the first year since the late 1960s that both bonds and equities lost money.
Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
Bilal Hafeez
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Bilal Hafeez
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Bilal Hafeez
June was a brutal month for markets. Thankfully, July came to the rescue. The S&P500 bounced 9.1% (the third-strongest July on record).
Bilal Hafeez
June was a brutal month for markets. Equities were down 9%, commodities fell 8%, corporate bonds fell between 3% and 7%, EM bonds dropped 5%...
Bilal Hafeez
The biggest question in markets today is whether the Fed will be willing to crush inflation even it means weaker equity markets.
Bilal Hafeez
Our core investment view remains the same. Markets are fragile, preservation of capital is paramount, and cash is king.
Bilal Hafeez
Due to popular demand, we are producing a monthly update on our asset allocation views.
Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…
Already have an account?…
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now