"One of the biggest problems facing investors is the sheer quantity of research. That's where Macro Hive comes in. It’s a service that finds great researchers, sifts through macro research from around the web and academic world, and showcases only the best content. It will provide a platform for top researchers to get their work better known. "

Specials

Political Turbulence To Keep Pound Down (2 min read)

By Bilal Hafeez | July 17, 2019

The pound has had a torrid time over the past three months. It’s been the worst performing currency among G10 and the major EM currencies, GBP/USD is at its lowest level since early 2017, and EUR/GBP has breached 0.90. Meanwhile,

England Finally Win the World Cup – Pound To Rally? (1 min read)

By Bilal Hafeez | July 15, 2019

Football in 1966, rugby in 2003, and now cricket in 2019: at last England can add another year to its rather barren hall of fame with Sunday’s thrilling victory in the World Cup finals. Surprisingly, it’s their first since the

The Real Meaning of Deutsche Bank’s Decline (3 min read)

By Bilal Hafeez | July 11, 2019

Having worked at Deutsche Bank for many years, I’m always tuned in to stories on it. And this week has been replete with them. Many focus on the announcement of dramatic staff cuts or the bank’s potential involvement in the scandal-hit

Best of the Web

The Trump Tax Reform, As Seen in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data (Council on Foreign Relations, 8 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The Trump tax reform was considered to be the formula that would allow the US to claim back trillions of dollars of trapped profits and make America a more manufacturing-competitive landscape. But

How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 5 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) While trend GDP growth in the US averaged 3.3% from 1950 to 2016, it has dropped to 1.7% since the 2000s. This article explores whether specific sectors are to blame. The authors

What is Fuelling the Global Revolt Against Democracy? (World Economic Forum, 3 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The analysis finds that dissatisfaction with democracy is not related to a nation’s overall level of wealth and development. Rather, it is correlated with economic outlooks – the greater the economic pessimism,

China Digest from the Web

China Digest From the Web

June 27, 2019

Micron’s shipments to Huawei show that in the globalised world, American technology products are not necessarily American (South China Morning Post/Bloomberg, 3 min read). US tech companies like Micron and Intel have found that a number of their products could

China Digest From the Web

June 20, 2019

Why Blacklisting Huawei Could Backfire.Argues that China has a track record of ‘indigenous innovation’, especially when cut off from international technologies. For example, China has developed atomic bombs, satellites, and super-computers all after being shut off from technical support from

China Digest From the Web

June 13, 2019

China to boost social credit system with new market regulatory measures China’s social credit system which amongst other things rewards and penalises acts of good or bad faith will now be extended to the business sector. Very Orwellian. TRADE WAR:

Podcasts

TINA’s Back in Town? (What Goes Up, 36 mins)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) TINA, or ‘There Is No Alternative’, to lower rates is the theme of the day. Bloomberg senior market editor, John Authers, wants a renewed focus on Shiller’s CAPE measure of equity

Damocles Update: Who is at Risk? (Focused Thinking by Nomura Research, 5 mins)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nomura has developed an early warning indicator of currency crises called Damocles. It tracks thirty emerging markets and in part back-test, part live performance has signalled two-thirds of the last 54

Behind Barr (The Information’s 411, 30 mins)

July 16, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) US Attorney General William Barr has the final say in whether or not the Antitrust Division takes actions against the likes of Google or Apple. This podcast explores how Barr’s past

Freshly Squeezed Working Papers

Alternative Data to Generate Alpha (3 min read)

June 20, 2019

In recent years the availability of new alternative datasets for financial markets has expanded enormously, potentially giving investors an informational edge. These can range from consumer transaction data to satellite

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns?

May 21, 2019

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns? AQR paper finds finds that options markets explain a great deal of credit returns. Two features of corporate bonds

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound

May 21, 2019

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound San Fran Fed writes “that there currently appears to be a low risk of the economy returning to the zero lower bound

Investor Positioning

July 16, 2019

Forecasts: US 10y Yields

July 16, 2019

Sign Up For the Free Newsletter