- We’ve now added more European countries to our tracker, especially since many like Denmark have started to re-open.
- We can now compare how the Nordic countries are faring. We know that Sweden was more lax than other countries – its deaths as a share of cases or case fatality rate (CFR) is 11%, which is on the high side (similar to France at 11% and Italy 13%). Norway’s CFR is lower at 2.5%, Iceland is at 0.6% and we can now see the other Nordics: Denmark is at 5% and Finland is at 2.5%. It should be noted that Sweden doesn’t have less cases per capita than the other Nordics (except for Iceland), and so testing is unlikely to account for the disparity.
- We’ve also added Ireland, which we find has a lower CFR than the UK (4.4% vs 13%).
- As for our peak wave charts:
- In DM, Finland joins Sweden and Canada in the peak wave quadrant, meanwhile Portugal has shown a pick-up in cases even as deaths are fallen which could indicate a new wave.
- In EM, Nigeria, South Africa, Russia and Pakistan are in the peak wave zone.
Chart 1: COVID Stages- DM Countries
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Chart 2: COVID Stages- EM Countries
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)