In the DM world, changes in case numbers remains small. The US, UK, Sweden and Canada all registered 2% increases while others barely saw any increase. On deaths, Japan leads today with a 4% increase, followed by the US, UK, Sweden, Norway, and Portugal at 2%.
For EM, the numbers remain higher. Pakistan and South Africa lead in today’s case increases registering 7%, while Chile and Colombia come next at 6%. Other notable increases can be found in India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina all with 5%. On deaths, Mexico has today’s pole position with a 10% increase, while Brazil comes next with 7%. India, Russia, and Nigeria also saw 5% increases.
We’re looking at peak waves in two ways. One in terms of levels of daily cases/deaths and the other in terms of changes in daily cases/deaths
• On levels, given the issues around cross-country comparisons, we instead look at how daily cases/deaths are evolved within countries. We do this by looking at what percentile the latest daily cases/deaths are. If it is in the 100th percentile, that means current levels are at the highest levels in the country’s history. On this metric, we find the following:
○ In DM, we have another day with Japan, US, UK, and Sweden as our peak wave contenders. Canada continues to signal a new wave and Spain recently entered this quadrant as well.
○ In EM, the large group of peak wave countries clusters even more around the top percentile values for both cases and deaths. They are India, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Argentina. At the other end of the spectrum, while China, Hong Kong, Turkey, and Czech Republic continue to see their lowest levels in cases and deaths, Israel and Hungary seem to be gradually joining this group as well. In terms of new wavers, we have Malaysia, South Korea, and Iran, while the only post-peak contender is Taiwan.
• We also look at the weekly change in cases/deaths. This allows us to more quickly capture new waves or declining waves. The downside is that it can be more noisy. Here’s the latest:
○ In DM, there is again no country in the peak wave quadrant, marking a pattern in this sense. In terms of potential new wavers, Australia is gradually leaving this quadrant, contrary to Sweden and Portugal which are entering. Norway remains the only solid post-peak contender, while Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Ireland, Switzerland, and Iceland are on the border between post-peak wave and declining wave. All other countries are in the declining wave.
○ In EM, the situation remains diversified. A gradual movement of countries is underway from peak wave towards origin or bordering with other quadrants. We will monitor this in the coming days. Nigeria strongly leads in the peak wave quadrant today, followed at a distance by Brazil, Mexico, and Russia. Hong Kong and South Korea are the strongest new wave contenders, followed by South Africa and India. Israel is the only country in the post-peak quadrant, while Czech Republic and Turkey find their place in the declining wave quadrant.
Chart 1: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)
Chart 2: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)
Chart 3: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Chart 4: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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