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By Bilal Hafeez Stefan Posea 26-05-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Tracker

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  • In the DM world, no country sees an increase in cases or deaths larger than 1%, except for Canada which saw a 2% increase in deaths. Surprisingly, Spain got a 7% decrease in deaths but that is most probably related to the revised numbers recently released, which brought down the COVID related deaths by nearly 2000.
  • The EM world saw larger changes as usual. Even if the intensity has slightly decreased, Latam still remains the hardest hit region. In terms of cases, Chile leads today with a 7% increase, followed by India, South Africa, and Argentina which recorded 5%. As of deaths, South Africa distantly leads today with a 12% increase which is in line with the ground realities given that yesterday it experienced its highest single day increase in the number of fatalities. It is followed by Chile with 6%.
  • Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
    • In DM, previous peak wavers Sweden, Canada, US, and Portugal are now making a clear exit towards the post-peak quadrant (low cases and high deaths). From a levels perspective, Japan is the strongest post-peak contender, while from a percentage change, Austria (not in chart) strongly leads, followed by Sweden and Switzerland. Most other countries remain in either the declining wave or are inching towards it.
    • In EM, the large group of countries in their peak waves including major Latam and Asian economies prevails. In terms of new waves, one should keep a close eye on Iran, Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore (large number of cases vs its past numbers), as well as on Indonesia, Nigeria, and UAE (large % changes in cases). In terms of post-peak contenders, we have Hungary and Thailand (number of cases – levels), as well as South Korea (% changes).

 

Figure 1: Europe – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 2: Americas – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 3: Asia – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 4: EMEA – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 5: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 6: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)