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In the DM world, no country sees an increase in cases or deaths larger than 1%, except for Canada which saw a 2% increase in deaths. Surprisingly, Spain got a 7% decrease in deaths but that is most probably related to the revised numbers recently released, which brought down the COVID related deaths by nearly 2000.
The EM world saw larger changes as usual. Even if the intensity has slightly decreased, Latam still remains the hardest hit region. In terms of cases, Chile leads today with a 7% increase, followed by India, South Africa, and Argentina which recorded 5%. As of deaths, South Africa distantly leads today with a 12% increase which is in line with the ground realities given that yesterday it experienced its highest single day increase in the number of fatalities. It is followed by Chile with 6%.
Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
In DM, previous peak wavers Sweden, Canada, US, and Portugal are now making a clear exit towards the post-peak quadrant (low cases and high deaths). From a levels perspective, Japan is the strongest post-peak contender, while from a percentage change, Austria (not in chart) strongly leads, followed by Sweden and Switzerland. Most other countries remain in either the declining wave or are inching towards it.
In EM, the large group of countries in their peak waves including major Latam and Asian economies prevails. In terms of new waves, one should keep a close eye on Iran, Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore (large number of cases vs its past numbers), as well as on Indonesia, Nigeria, and UAE (large % changes in cases). In terms of post-peak contenders, we have Hungary and Thailand (number of cases – levels), as well as South Korea (% changes).
Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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