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  1. Ep. 206: Nigel Toon on How AI Thinks and How We Can Control It

    Bilal Hafeez

    Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister's Business Council.

  2. Ep. 203: Melanie Mitchell on Can Artificial Intelligence Beat Human Thinking

    Bilal Hafeez

    Melanie Mitchell is one of the leading AI researchers in the world. She is Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.

  3. Ep. 198: Chris Rauh on How to Use AI to Predict Conflicts

    Bilal Hafeez

    Chris Rauh is a Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. He works with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling.

  1. Ep. 195: Bilal Hafeez on 2023 Surprises, Getting AI Right, and Best TV of 2023

    Bilal Hafeez

    Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank.

  2. 2024 Grey Swans: The Complete List

    Bilal Hafeez

    There have been some shocks in 2023. A notable one was the US regional bank crisis – no one was expecting it. After all, US banks were supposed to safe after all the post-GFC regulation. When I say no-one, there was one person, Dominique, who wrote in late 2022 that a ‘grey swan’ event for […]

  3. 2024 Grey Swan: Arsenal to Win the Premier League and Champions League Double

    Richard Jones

    Football Focus Football is fast becoming a theme for my Grey Swans. Last year’s was on the Magpies. This year? There are several tempting possibilities. I looked at a couple of scenarios – Manchester City winning the treble again, or Aston Villa winning the Premier League. The odds on the former, between 14/1 and 16/1, […]

2024 Grey Swan: Investors Discover AGI Has Taken Over Markets

Karl Massey

The markets obey a version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. There is a limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties can be specified simultaneously. Instead of ‘position’ and ‘momentum’, finance has a ‘what’ and a ‘when’. For the sake of the Grey Swan construct, let us imagine this ‘what’ occurs next year in […]

Deep Dive – Greying America and the Great Disability Creep

John Tierney

Because of ageing and disabilities, labour force participation is set to fall to 60% in coming years (from 62.8% currently). Absent offsetting growth in productivity, that will lead to slower GDP growth and tax revenue to address the aging problem

  1. Ep. 181: Phil Suttle on US Recession Risks, AI Impact, and BoJ to 1% 

    Bilal Hafeez

    Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US.

  2. Ep. 180: Dominque Dwor-Frecaut on What Everyone Gets Wrong on Inflation, Recessions and Fed Policy

    Bilal Hafeez

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater.

  3. Ep. 179: Mustafa Chowdhury on Fed Policy, US Industrial Policy and Housing Risks

    Bilal Hafeez

    Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank.

Ep. 178: Professor Adrian Williams on Everything You Wanted to Know About Sleep [Replay]

Bilal Hafeez

Dr. Adrian Williams is the UK's first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after...

The Summer Research Surge

Sam van de Schootbrugge

The summer months are upon us. This means fewer office distractions and fewer short-term deadlines, creating the ideal opportunity for researchers to get stuck into meatier projects. In academia, this summer lull brings in a surge of publications in the months that follow (Chart 1).

  1. Modern Portfolio Theory Is Still Relevant Today

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A Review of Financial Studies paper examines the pitfalls of mean-variance portfolio optimisation. It confirms a well-known result - historical sample moments are suboptimal proxies for true means and variances, and that optimisation methods estimating these past values have poor forecasting performance.

  2. Ep. 170: Sean McGould On Creating an Investing Edge, Hedge Funds and Inflation Opportunities

    Bilal Hafeez

    Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – a $15bn investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company.

  3. Ep. 169: Bob Elliott on Bridgewater’s Success, US Inflation and Fed’s Error 

    Bilal Hafeez

    Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associate...

When Are Momentum Models Profitable?

Sam van de Schootbrugge

A new paper in the highly rated Review of Financial Studies journal explains how momentum profits are strongly linked to the performance of winners and losers during the formation period.

Ep. 168: Martin Wolf on Why Capitalism and Democracy Need Each Other  

Bilal Hafeez

Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 ‘for services to financial journalism.’ His latest book is ‘The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism’.

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