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By Bilal Hafeez Stefan Posea 20-05-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Tracker

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• In the DM world, no major increases in cases or deaths, except for Japan, which saw a 3% increase in deaths. However, the Economy Minister feels confident the nation is on a path towards containing the virus.

• The EM world saw larger changes. Chile saw an 8% increase in cases. The country is also suffering from protests about food shortages and job losses. India, Egypt, and Brazil saw 6% increases. On deaths, South Africa experienced a 9% jump. Its most affected area is Western Cape Province, home to Cape Town and country’s tourism hub with 10,639 cases and 187 deaths. Next was Brazil with a 7% increase and Mexico and Chile with 6% figure.

• Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:

○ In DM, Portugal, Sweden, Canada, and US remain in their peak waves (high level of cases and deaths). While Iceland, Norway, Greece, Switzerland, Spain, and Italy are in the low cases and deaths quadrant. Austria saw a jump in cases over the past week, so is worth monitoring for a second wave

○ In EM, there is a much larger group of countries in their peak waves including Brazil, Mexico, India and Russia. Meanwhile many Asian countries (China, Korea, HK) are in the best quadrant (low cases and deaths). As for potential second wavers, we have Singapore (high level of cases) and possibly Korea (big recent % jump in cases).

 

Figure 1: Europe 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 2: Americas – 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 3: Asia – 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 4: EMEA – 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 5: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 6: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)