India Pivots Too Soon?
(5 min read)
[Base case: Indian bonds rally]
India’s Q3 GDP was predictably weak at +4.5% YoY. It might have been even weaker but for a timely surge in government spending. The deterioration was fairly broad across consumption, investment, and external sectors. Real GDP growth rate has now slipped below headline CPI inflation. Unfortunately, Q4 is tracking no better than Q3: high frequency data through October has remained lacklustre, while vegetable price inflation continues to build and is likely to push headline CPI well above 5% in Q4...
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