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  1. Look for Idiosyncratic, Relative-Value and Carry Trades in FX

    Vasileios Gkionakis

    Idiosyncratic and relative-value (RV) trades are currently appealing. Look for monetary policy divergences (Bank of England repricing lower, rates re-pricing in CEE), sensitivity to ongoing muted Chinese growth, and energy prices.

  2. China Growth Tracker: Is Beijing’s Plan to Boost the Economy Working? 

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Our high-frequency China growth tracker has picked up since last week on stronger domestic road congestion data, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We also see prices of economically sensitive commodities like iron ore continue to rise, as is the Baltic Dry index.

  3. Momentum Models Move Max Long S&P While Being Max Short 10Y Treasuries

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities. 

  1. China Growth Tracker: Re-Opening Index Stabilises

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Overall, our high-frequency China reopening index continues to stabilise, although our travel indicator (which looks at road congestion and subway traffic) looks to be stalling.

  2. Momentum Models Suggest the Increase in Yields Is Far From Over!

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities.

  3. Momentum Models Flag US Rates to Underperform JGBs

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models back our view to be long 10Y JGBs vs 10Y USTs (target: -400bps) and long EUR/CHF. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities. They disagree with our view for GBP/CAD to trade lower over the next six months.

Momentum Models Continue to Expect FTSE-100 Underperformance

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

China Growth Tracker: Re-Opening Index Stabilises

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Our high-frequency China reopening index appears to have found a solid base while our market data-based China growth tracker has further improved.

  1. Momentum Models Heavily Bearish on USTs, JGBs, Bunds and Gilts

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Market Implications Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

  2. China Growth Tracker: Economics Data Remains Pessimistic

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Our high-frequency China reopening index appears to have found a solid base while our market data-based China growth tracker has further improved.

  3. Momentum Models Support Long Bund vs UST Trade

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models support Mustafa and Henry’s view that there is value in being long 10Y Bunds vs USTs. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

China Growth Tracker: Plenty of Pessimistic Details

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Our high-frequency China reopening index has pared its preliminary spike higher and is now only marginally higher than levels seen in June. Our China growth tracker based on market data continues to improve, though our economic data-based tracker saw a strong preliminary weakening through July on the back of PMIs.

Momentum Models Support Positioning for Dovish BoE

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models support Henry’s view that there remains room for relative BoE dovishness versus the ECB and the Fed, which he likes via a 2s10s GBP/EUR box and by being short 1Y1Y US OIS vs 1Y1Y SONIA.

  1. Modi’s US Visit Forges Long-Term Symbiotic Partnership

    Rutuja Morankar 

    Indian PM Modi visited the US in June this year to strengthen ties between the two countries. The visit saw landmark deals across sectors, but a free trade agreement is unlikely in the near term.

  2. China Growth Tracker: Potential for Stronger-than-Forecasted July PMIs

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Our high-frequency China reopening index has improved sharply over the past two weeks, in line with Singapore crack spreads.

  3. Momentum Models Turn Heavily Bearish on EUR/CHF

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in rates (+0.4% WoW) were offset by losses in equities (-0.3% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW).

China Growth Tracker: Market-Based Tracker Diverging from Hard Data

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Our high-frequency China reopening index pared recent positivity as port data worsened.

UK Inflation Catches Momentum Models by Surprise

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models slipped 0.3% WoW paring some of last week’s +0.5% gain.

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