Emerging Marketssee more…

  1. Flying at Pre-Pandemic Levels

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Global departures have reached 107,000 per day, levels comparable to 2019, but shy of the levels they were before COVID struck in 2020 (Chart 1).

  2. China Growth Tracker: Is China Recovering?

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our indices remain separated with the China re-opening likely to pay dividends to economic data releases further down the line. The convergence seen over the past weeks was due to the market-based tracker scaling back rather than the economic data-based tracker catching up (Charts 1 and 2).

  3. Time to Visit China?

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    While global departures remain above 100,000, they are yet to recover to December highs and are 3% lower since our last report (Chart 1).

  1. Departures up 7% Ahead of Christmas Holidays

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Global daily departures are up 2.7% WoW, now up 6.7% in December. They remain above 100,000 ahead of Christmas.

  2. Easing Restrictions Aid China and HK Departures

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Global daily departures are up 2.4% WoW, now up 3.9% in December. They have returned above 100,000 ahead of Christmas (Chart 1).

  3. China Growth Tracker: What Changes Have China Made to Zero-Covid?

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our indices continued to diverge with the China re-opening likely to pay dividends to economic data releases further down the line.

Global Flight Departures Rise into Winter Holidays

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Global daily departures are up 1.5% WoW but stalled south of 100,000. They could fall past 95,000, according to historic seasonality.

American Departures Fall at Rapid Pace

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Global departures resumed their downward-facing path (-4.0%) as they fell below 100,000 for the first time since June.

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Time to Reconsider a 75bp Fed Hike in December

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    US markets were data-light in a Thanksgiving-focused week. Investors took the opportunity to further moderate their expectations for the Federal Reserve...

  2. Market and Economic Indices Diverge

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our indices are diverging as markets digest a China re-opening. Our market data-based tracker has stalled over the past two weeks but is trending higher...

  3. Prime Trade Ideas: Time to Turn Bullish on China?

    Ben Ford

    John unwound his retail, US infrastructure and European equity index positions. He is now up 2% against the S&P 500.

European Departures Drop 10.9% Since September

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Global departures have increased (+1.5%) WoW for the first time since the first week of October. Historic seasonality suggests flights tend to increase toward Christmas...

The Hive World Cup Survey

Sam van de Schootbrugge

To give a taste of how each team (and their country) will fare, we’ve asked our network for their views. We’ve asked people the following questions...

  1. Global Departures Down 7.5% From 2022 Peak

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Global departures are down 7.5% from their 2022 peak. The downturn has extended another 1.2% WoW. Global departures have remained consistently below normal...

  2. Eased Zero-Covid Restrictions Aid Tracker

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our market data-based tracker bounced over the past two weeks but remained deeply negative (Chart 1). Meanwhile, the preliminary economic data-based reading for October shows no revival (Chart 2).

  3. What Could Change China’s Zero-Covid?

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Global departures are down 6.4% from their Q3 peak, the downturn has accelerated over the past week (-3.0% WoW). With the number of global departures having trended...

Growth Remains Weak Following Party Congress

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Our market data-based tracker remained deeply negative, despite a slight improvement over the past two weeks, while the economic data-based tracker was unchanged...

European Departures Falling as Covid-19 Wave Picks Up Pace

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Global departures continued to ease (-0.8% WoW). With the number of global departures having trended about midway between 2019 and 2021 levels so far this year...

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