Subscribe

Emerging Marketssee more…

  1. Key Events: NFP to Show Labour Market Remains Tight

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the main data releases are: NFP – Friday. Consensus expects 185k and unemployment at 3.9% – i.e., a tight labour market still. I agree. Trade balance – Thursday. A downside surprise to the consensus estimate of ‑$69.7bn would indicate a buildup of domestic demand pressures. JOLTS – Tuesday. We […]

  2. Key Events: Will a CPI Surprise Challenge the Rate Cut Narrative?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the headline is CPI and retail sales: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expects 0.3% MoM for core. I see upside risks due to April’s rising energy prices and strong demand backdrop. Sam’s model will give an early read. Yet even with a positive surprise, this CPI print alone is unlikely […]

  3. Ep. 215: Nick Rohatyn on How to Navigate Emerging Markets Investing

    Bilal Hafeez

    Nick Rohatyn is Founder and serves as Chief Executive Officer of The Rohatyn Group. TRG is a global asset manager specialising in emerging markets and real assets, with over $8bn in assets under management. 

  1. Key Events: Will a Dovish BoE Open the Way to Cuts?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there are two main events: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (Monday): We expect it will still show increased credit demand, fewer banks tightening standards, and more banks willing to extend loans – another sign Fed tightening is not reaching the economy. U. Mich. Consumer confidence […]

  2. Key Events: Hawkish Fed Risks

    5 researchers

    We are updating our key events report. From now on, you will receive a short document to prepare you for the week ahead. This new form focuses on a curated list of data/events, as well as key central bank meetings and market views across G10 and EM. Key Events G10 In the US, there are […]

  3. Key Events: Fed in ‘No Rush to Cut Rates’

    4 researchers

    Skip to: US, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away this week, Antonio Del Favero covers the key US data for the coming days. Summary No Fed speakers next week as we enter the blackout period pre-FOMC (1 May). As expected, Fed speakers reacted to the third hot inflation print, confirming ‘no rush to […]

Key Events: Inflation No Longer Just a ‘Bump in the Road’

5 researchers

Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away, this week’s US section is covered by Macro Hive strategist Antonio Del Favero. Summary Inflation is no longer consistent with a June cut. I expect that only a recession can push inflation back down to target and below. Fed speakers will give their […]

Can Argentina Dollarize? Of Course It Can

John H. Welch

Summary The new Milei administration signalled plans to dollarize the Argentine economy. Some think the central bank must accumulate USD to make this happen. The solution, however, is just a simple exercise in arithmetic: find the USD/ARS that equates gross foreign exchange reserves to the central bank’s monetary liabilities. The calculation comes to 885 Argentine […]

  1. Key Events: Could the BoE Add Dot Plots?

    5 researchers

    Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary March CPI and PPI are likely to be consistent with a June cut. Fed speakers will give their take on yet another bumper NFP. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to start cutting in June. Fed This week Chair Powell stated that ‘the recent […]

  2. Key Events: It Is a Dove World

    5 researchers

    Note: Due to the upcoming holidays, this week’s Key Events covers an extended period, from 25 March to 5 April. Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary February core PCE to support Fed narrative. NFP to show cooling wage growth but strong employment. Market Implications I expect the Fed to start cutting […]

  3. Key Events: The Fed Keeps the Faith

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | Rest of G10 | Emerging Markets US Summary Fed to keep three 2024 cuts. Residential real estate data to show continued recovery. Market Implications A June cut is still my base case scenario. Fed I expect the Fed to stick to its narrative of continued if slower disinflation and three rate cuts in 2024. This […]

Key Events: Will Low Wage Growth Translate Into Low Inflation?

5 researchers

Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary CPI and PPI likely show that disinflation is continuing. February retail sales likely show that January weakness was a blip. Market Implications We continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut in June. Fed This week, Fed speakers continued to express their need for greater confidence on the disinflation path […]

Markets to Watch: Watch Out For ‘More Good’ Jobs Data

Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]

  1. Key Events: Powell Wants More Good Data

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Powell’s testimony to Congress is likely to stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Both NFP and wages are likely to surprise on the upside.  Market Implications A June cut is still my base case. Fed Fed speakers this week continued to stress that […]

  2. Key Events: Growth, Inflation to Remain Too Hot for Fed

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary PCE to confirm January inflation bump. Q4 GDP second estimate to show growth remains too hot for the Fed. Market Implications I still see a June cut as more likely than a May cut, in line with market pricing. Fed Fed speakers this week continued to signal cuts are not […]

  3. Key Events: Could an EU Wage Data Miss Spark a Dovish ECB Reaction?

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes to detail Fed requirements for a cut. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson to give first speech since November. Market Implications I still see a June cut as more likely than a May cut, in line with market pricing. Fed Fed speakers this week continued calling for […]

Charts of the Week: Rising R-Star, ‘Last-Mile’ Disinflation, and a 2024 Oil Supply Deficit

Matthew Tibble

Summary The Fed has r-star around 0.5% in real terms, but markets are pricing it around 2%. We think this could be a return to the pre-GFC ‘normal’. US disinflation could be entering its ‘last mile’ phase, implying slower price increases ahead. Asian trade data corroborates the recent pick-up in global manufacturing, but a lack […]

Markets to Watch: Will the Fed React to CPI Revisions?

Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar

Summary In the US, Friday brings seasonal factor revisions to the CPI. These could impact the path of the FFR. Currently Powell seems set on no rate cut in March. Europe and the UK hear from central bank policymakers and see several key surveys updated, including the services PMIs. Elsewhere, a slew of central bank […]

View all articles in "Emerging Markets"…

Subscribe to Macro Hive

Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…

START 30-DAY FREE TRIAL

Already have an account?…

Log in…

Get the weekly newsletter 16,000+ finance pros read for 'must-have' trade ideas.

    Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now