
China Growth Tracker: How Fast Is China Reopening?
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
We create a new high frequency index to track China’s rapid reopening. We note that the economy has only just returned to the same activity levels seen throughout 2022.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
We create a new high frequency index to track China’s rapid reopening. We note that the economy has only just returned to the same activity levels seen throughout 2022.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global departures have reached 107,000 per day, levels comparable to 2019, but shy of the levels they were before COVID struck in 2020 (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our indices remain separated with the China re-opening likely to pay dividends to economic data releases further down the line. The convergence seen over the past weeks was due to the market-based tracker scaling back rather than the economic data-based tracker catching up (Charts 1 and 2).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
While global departures remain above 100,000, they are yet to recover to December highs and are 3% lower since our last report (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global daily departures are up 2.7% WoW, now up 6.7% in December. They remain above 100,000 ahead of Christmas.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global daily departures are up 2.4% WoW, now up 3.9% in December. They have returned above 100,000 ahead of Christmas (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our indices continued to diverge with the China re-opening likely to pay dividends to economic data releases further down the line.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global daily departures are up 1.5% WoW but stalled south of 100,000. They could fall past 95,000, according to historic seasonality.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global departures resumed their downward-facing path (-4.0%) as they fell below 100,000 for the first time since June.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
US markets were data-light in a Thanksgiving-focused week. Investors took the opportunity to further moderate their expectations for the Federal Reserve...
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our indices are diverging as markets digest a China re-opening. Our market data-based tracker has stalled over the past two weeks but is trending higher...
Ben Ford
John unwound his retail, US infrastructure and European equity index positions. He is now up 2% against the S&P 500.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global departures have increased (+1.5%) WoW for the first time since the first week of October. Historic seasonality suggests flights tend to increase toward Christmas...
Sam van de Schootbrugge
To give a taste of how each team (and their country) will fare, we’ve asked our network for their views. We’ve asked people the following questions...
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global departures are down 7.5% from their 2022 peak. The downturn has extended another 1.2% WoW. Global departures have remained consistently below normal...
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our market data-based tracker bounced over the past two weeks but remained deeply negative (Chart 1). Meanwhile, the preliminary economic data-based reading for October shows no revival (Chart 2).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global departures are down 6.4% from their Q3 peak, the downturn has accelerated over the past week (-3.0% WoW). With the number of global departures having trended...
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our market data-based tracker remained deeply negative, despite a slight improvement over the past two weeks, while the economic data-based tracker was unchanged...
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Global departures continued to ease (-0.8% WoW). With the number of global departures having trended about midway between 2019 and 2021 levels so far this year...
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