Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… PCE price index, pers. income, spending – Friday. Consensus seems reasonable. The Fed watches the services component of PCE. We will examine median price PCE for indication of trend and see personal savings remaining around 4%. Q2 GDP – Thursday. Consensus is 1.9% vs the Atlanta Fed’s […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the important data points: Retail sales – Tuesday. Expect 0.2% for the control group, in line with consensus. Consumption growth is slowing due to catchup in personal income tax payments. Manufacturing production – Tuesday. Consensus of –0.1% mom appears reasonable, though the data says little about the […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the most important data is: NFP – Friday. We agree with the consensus on payrolls and unemployment. Wage growth will be more important than usual due to last month’s pickup, which some argue is the start of a trend. ISM PMIs – manu. Monday, services Wednesday. We agree with […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models down 0.1% WoW, rates up 0.2% WoW and FX unchanged WoW. FX momentum models are the best performing over a three-month […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main events are: Core PCE – Friday. Expect no surprise since PPI and CPI allow for close approximation. The more reliable indicator of trend will be the Cleveland Fed’s median price PCE, published a few hours after the BEA release. Personal income and spending – Friday. Consensus estimates […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, Wednesday is a federal holiday. Otherwise, the main data releases are: Retail sales – Tuesday. Consensus for the control group is 0.3% MoM vs -0.3% in April. This sounds reasonable: the series is noisy, and retail sales cover only goods and restaurant consumption. The more important economic data is […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data releases are: NFP – Friday. Consensus expects 185k and unemployment at 3.9% – i.e., a tight labour market still. I agree. Trade balance – Thursday. A downside surprise to the consensus estimate of ‑$69.7bn would indicate a buildup of domestic demand pressures. JOLTS – Tuesday. We […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the headline is CPI and retail sales: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expects 0.3% MoM for core. I see upside risks due to April’s rising energy prices and strong demand backdrop. Sam’s model will give an early read. Yet even with a positive surprise, this CPI print alone is unlikely […]
Bilal Hafeez
Nick Rohatyn is Founder and serves as Chief Executive Officer of The Rohatyn Group. TRG is a global asset manager specialising in emerging markets and real assets, with over $8bn in assets under management.
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there are two main events: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (Monday): We expect it will still show increased credit demand, fewer banks tightening standards, and more banks willing to extend loans – another sign Fed tightening is not reaching the economy. U. Mich. Consumer confidence […]
5 researchers
We are updating our key events report. From now on, you will receive a short document to prepare you for the week ahead. This new form focuses on a curated list of data/events, as well as key central bank meetings and market views across G10 and EM. Key Events G10 In the US, there are […]
4 researchers
Skip to: US, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away this week, Antonio Del Favero covers the key US data for the coming days. Summary No Fed speakers next week as we enter the blackout period pre-FOMC (1 May). As expected, Fed speakers reacted to the third hot inflation print, confirming ‘no rush to […]
5 researchers
Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away, this week’s US section is covered by Macro Hive strategist Antonio Del Favero. Summary Inflation is no longer consistent with a June cut. I expect that only a recession can push inflation back down to target and below. Fed speakers will give their […]
John H. Welch
Summary The new Milei administration signalled plans to dollarize the Argentine economy. Some think the central bank must accumulate USD to make this happen. The solution, however, is just a simple exercise in arithmetic: find the USD/ARS that equates gross foreign exchange reserves to the central bank’s monetary liabilities. The calculation comes to 885 Argentine […]
5 researchers
Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary March CPI and PPI are likely to be consistent with a June cut. Fed speakers will give their take on yet another bumper NFP. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to start cutting in June. Fed This week Chair Powell stated that ‘the recent […]
5 researchers
Note: Due to the upcoming holidays, this week’s Key Events covers an extended period, from 25 March to 5 April. Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary February core PCE to support Fed narrative. NFP to show cooling wage growth but strong employment. Market Implications I expect the Fed to start cutting […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | Rest of G10 | Emerging Markets US Summary Fed to keep three 2024 cuts. Residential real estate data to show continued recovery. Market Implications A June cut is still my base case scenario. Fed I expect the Fed to stick to its narrative of continued if slower disinflation and three rate cuts in 2024. This […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary CPI and PPI likely show that disinflation is continuing. February retail sales likely show that January weakness was a blip. Market Implications We continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut in June. Fed This week, Fed speakers continued to express their need for greater confidence on the disinflation path […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]
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