Is Michael Bloomberg done? As in, is he out of the presidential race for all practical purposes, or is he simply biding his time?
You could fall either side of that question after watching his debate performance on Wednesday night in Nevada. On the negative side, Bloomberg mostly stood stony faced as the other candidates devoted much of their time to pounding his record, reputation, and wealth. He didn’t try to respond and (surprisingly) moderators rarely let him. That said, when he did defend himself by laying out his views about stop-and-frisk, or about promoting women in his business and foundation over the years, he was factual and to the point – but also dry and ill at ease. One could be forgiven for thinking it pained him to have to explain himself.
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Is Michael Bloomberg done? As in, is he out of the presidential race for all practical purposes, or is he simply biding his time?
You could fall either side of that question after watching his debate performance on Wednesday night in Nevada. On the negative side, Bloomberg mostly stood stony faced as the other candidates devoted much of their time to pounding his record, reputation, and wealth. He didn’t try to respond and (surprisingly) moderators rarely let him. That said, when he did defend himself by laying out his views about stop-and-frisk, or about promoting women in his business and foundation over the years, he was factual and to the point – but also dry and ill at ease. One could be forgiven for thinking it pained him to have to explain himself.
Mr Polite
Given the feisty spirit of the other candidates, the audience was perhaps disappointed to see Bloomberg fail to respond in kind and go after some of his competitors’ soft spots – say, Elizabeth Warren’s flirtation with her Native American heritage (aka ‘Pocahontas’ in Trumpspeak); Joe Biden’s disastrous performance during the Anita Hill hearings in 1992; Amy Klobuchar’s brutal management style and poor treatment of her staff. Given the attacks Bloomberg weathered, any of these would have been fair game.
Yet in response to these attacks, and during give and take on policy issues, what stood out most was his silence. In fairness, no one had much of substance to say on policy matters. But that was as much the fault of the moderators, who seemed more interested in goading candidates into attacking each other. Foreign policy? The closest anyone got was Klobuchar defending herself for failing to remember the name of Mexico’s president (Andrés Manuel López Obrador) and Mayor Pete lambasting her for not knowing things he thought she should have given her experience as a Washington insider.
Poor Debater (At the Moment)
I suppose we should keep in mind that the debates are largely about political theatre and TV ratings. Leaving aside the challenge of trying to digest a substantive response on a policy issue within a one- or two-minute timeframe, all most people seem to want to see is an ad hominem exhibition – a verbal food-fight.
It remains to be seen whether Bloomberg ups his live-TV game in future debates. Surely, it won’t hurt if he does. We know he’s no fan of Bernie Sanders – but he could do worse than study Bernie’s passionate delivery style. Yet even if he doesn’t, choosing instead to stick with his technocratic persona, it will probably matter little.
The Long Game
Unlike his competition, who live and die by weekly polls and raising money so they can make it to the next debate stage, Bloomberg is free to focus on the one poll that matters – election or caucus day.
Bloomberg will surely continue to play the cut-up with his ad campaign. He’s scored a lot of points that way so far, including provoking a Trump Twitter storm in response to ads mocking his girth. (Indeed, to be the cynic, one wonders if that potential revenue stream had anything to do with the moderators leaving Bloomberg alone – not that his competitors needed help.) If Bloomberg can keep up momentum on the ad front, he could go into Super Tuesday on 3 March in good shape.
I’m not going to try and call who makes it to the finish line – it will come down to who shows up on election day in the various state primaries and how they vote.
Ads aside, if Bloomberg wants to make sure more of those votes go his way, he’s going to have to shift gear and act like he understands that running for president is nothing like running for any other public office. He’s going to have to adjust to public scrutiny and come across as a more likeable or accessible person. If he says he is going to release tax returns, he had better do so.
Bloomberg Ads vs Trump Reality Show
If it were to end up being Trump versus Bloomberg, it will be a true media-fest. And there’s little question Trump will dominate the live-TV front. But Bloomberg may bring to the table another form of media mastery: his ad campaign, which could prove to be a guerrilla or stealth-media foil to Trump’s reality show bombast. If nothing else, it would be fascinating to see how the two media channels play out and how they harness social media.
Hopefully, amid all the spectacle, we remember that this is also supposed to be a referendum about who serves as President of the United Sates for the next four years.
Over a 30-year career as a sell side analyst, John covered the structured finance and credit markets before serving as a corporate market strategist. In recent years, he has moved into a global strategist role.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)