John Tierney

Macro Hive Author

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please email [email protected]
SPECIALITY: Credit, Global Macro,

Over a 30-year career as a sell side analyst, John covered the structured finance and credit markets before serving as a corporate market strategist. In recent years, he has moved into a global strategist role.

MY ARTICLES


  • In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities US

    High Yield Is Worth A Look

    September 24, 2020

    With high yield credit spreads near 540bp, is high yield a buy? Moody’s default rate outlook suggests it is, and that it…

  • Employment Report

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US

    Will Good News In The August Labour Report Lead To More Bad News?

    September 07, 2020

    Last Friday’s August labour market report had elements of both glass-half-full and glass-half-empty news. On balance, the half-empty glass still looks bigger…

  • Us Labour Market

    In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

    Labour Market Still Labouring: Will It Get The Support It Needs?

    July 06, 2020

    Last week’s employment report offered several positive indicators for a nascent recovery. Payroll employment jumped by 4.8 million or 3.6%. The official…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics US

    Latest Jobless Claims Report Points to Soft June Employment Report

    June 25, 2020

    The latest employment insurance claims report, released on Thursday morning, bodes poorly for next week’s June employment report…

  • Us Labour Market

    In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

    Mr. Market Gets The US Labour Data Right

    June 08, 2020

    So, let’s get this straight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics somehow misclassified a bunch of people as employed when they should have been reported…

  • US Unemployment (1)

    In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

    When Temporary Unemployment Turns Permanent

    June 04, 2020

    The recoveries that followed the recessions of 1992, 2001 and 2008-09 have often been called ‘jobless recoveries’. This was a term coined during…

  • Tech Firms Stock

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology

    The Tech Aristocracy – Too Good To Be True?

    May 21, 2020

    Willie Sutton was a famous bank robber during the 1930s. When asked why he robbed banks he reportedly replied, “Because that’s where the money…

  • US Unemployment Report

    In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

    The US Employment Report Was Bad, But Not For The Reason You Think

    May 14, 2020

    There was plenty for everyone in last Friday’s US employment report. Bears (and most media) jumped on the massive increase in the unemployment…

  • Earnings Expectations

    In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Equities Growth & Labour Market

    Earnings Expectations In The COVID Crisis

    May 06, 2020

    The coronavirus crisis may seem to have dragged on for an age, but the reality is that the initial shock hit markets and most economies less than 2½…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

    What If Equity Markets Don’t Get That V-Shaped Recovery?

    April 30, 2020

    US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…

  • Credit Market Bust

    In: Hive Exclusives | Credit

    Are Credit Spreads Signaling Another Credit Market Bust?

    April 16, 2020

    The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis becomes more apparent by the day. Yet equity markets have rallied impressively off March lows,…

  • Share Buybacks

    In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy

    Buybacks: A Tempting Target But An Empty Piñata

    April 02, 2020

    The $2.2 trillion stimulus package signed into law last week (aka the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, Economic Security Act, or CARES) has prompted an outcry…

  • Super Tuesday Polls

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

    Undecided Voters To Determine Super Tuesday Outcomes

    March 03, 2020

    Latest polls indicate a two-man race with Sanders to win many states and Biden coming in second. How these delegates are apportioned will come…

  • Bloomberg Presedential Race

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

    Don’t Rule Out Bloomberg Just Yet

    February 21, 2020

    Is Michael Bloomberg done? As in, is he out of the presidential race for all practical purposes, or is he simply biding his time?…

  • Recent Mergers

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities

    We Need A Telecom Oligopoly – And A New Anti-Trust Framework

    February 13, 2020

    Much to Mr. Market’s surprise and delight, a federal judge signed off on T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint’s merger plans on Tuesday. Sprint’s stock price…

  • January Wrap Up

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Equities Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US

    From Iran Tensions To Coronavirus: Event Risks Dominate In January

    February 06, 2020

    January was something of a bifurcated market. Equities generally tried to remain sanguine amid unsettling geopolitical developments, and US bond…

  • Sprint Store

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities

    Is US Anti-Trust Making A Comeback?

    January 30, 2020

    Will the $26bn T-Mobile/Sprint deal actually happen? The decision will be made in the next few weeks. Back in August it looked like a sure thing…

  • Housing Market

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Growth & Labour Market US

    Goldilocks Beckons: Bullish Homebuilder Sector

    November 19, 2019

    Pop quiz time: when was the stock bubble of our lifetime? If you said homebuilders during 2005-6 (Chart 1), congratulations!

  • Problems & Solutions

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    Houston, We Still Have A Repo Problem…

    November 14, 2019

    As most readers know, the repo market crashed on 17 September. Ever since then speculation has swirled as to exactly what set it off…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Equities Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US

    What Investors Learned In October

    November 05, 2019

    Equity markets rode a rollercoaster during the first week of October. First there were several negative data surprises, but then they marched…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Rates

    Falling Yields Are The Risk For Credit

    October 24, 2019

    The warning flags are being hoisted. One blog cautions us about a coming blowout in the government and corporate bond markets when…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Geopolitics US

    The Democrat Biden Problem – Who Can Replace Him?

    October 17, 2019

    Knowing what we do today, the person who emerges with the Democratic nomination nine months from now will almost certainly be a…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Rates

    Repo Market Re-Think: What About That New Benchmark?

    October 03, 2019

    The repo market flash crash certainly raised awareness of the fragile nature of money markets and market plumbing. Yet curiously no one…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Economics Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market UK US

    What Investors Are Thinking: The September Scan

    October 03, 2019

    Looking at month-to-month changes, you’d be forgiven for thinking that markets simply took a breather in September after the selloff in August.…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Credit US

    Recession Risk? Not Yet, Says The Corporate Bond Market

    September 19, 2019

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics Investment Strategy US

    Corporate America: The Clear Loser in Trump’s Trade War

    September 12, 2019

    There’s little debating the cause of the US/China trade war. There is a bellicose Donald Trump determined to vanquish trade deficits…

  • US Flag

    In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US

    The Times They Are A-Changin’…

    August 22, 2019

    The summer of 1969. It was one of those special moments in American history. In July, man first walked on the moon…

  • Currencies

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US

    Why QE Doesn’t Really Work

    August 15, 2019

    The ECB is signalling that it may resume Quantitative Easing (QE) via bond purchases. And there is growing speculation that…

  • Thinking about future finances

    In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US

    Recent Recession Forecasts Are Crying Wolf

    August 08, 2019

    It’s a sure way to attract media coverage: publish a report calling for recession in the next year…

  • Confused Businessman

    In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    Do Negative Interest Rates Work?

    July 25, 2019

    For most of us, including those trained in finance and the more practical side of economics, negative interest rates are anything but intuitive…

  • Top Tech Companies

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Other

    Big Tech Fraud Alert

    July 10, 2019

    When it comes to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft – or the FAANG+M complex – most of us love (or at least can’t live without) their products…

  • January Wrap Up

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Equities Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US

    From Iran Tensions To Coronavirus: Event Risks Dominate In January

    February 06, 2020

    January was something of a bifurcated market. Equities generally tried to remain sanguine amid unsettling geopolitical developments, and US bond…

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