If you would like to connect and contact the author,Over a 30-year career as a sell side analyst, John covered the structured finance and credit markets before serving as a corporate market strategist. In recent years, he has moved into a global strategist role.
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities US
With high yield credit spreads near 540bp, is high yield a buy? Moody’s default rate outlook suggests it is, and that it…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US
Last Friday’s August labour market report had elements of both glass-half-full and glass-half-empty news. On balance, the half-empty glass still looks bigger…
In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US
Last week’s employment report offered several positive indicators for a nascent recovery. Payroll employment jumped by 4.8 million or 3.6%. The official…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics US
The latest employment insurance claims report, released on Thursday morning, bodes poorly for next week’s June employment report…
In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US
So, let’s get this straight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics somehow misclassified a bunch of people as employed when they should have been reported…
In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US
The recoveries that followed the recessions of 1992, 2001 and 2008-09 have often been called ‘jobless recoveries’. This was a term coined during…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology
Willie Sutton was a famous bank robber during the 1930s. When asked why he robbed banks he reportedly replied, “Because that’s where the money…
In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US
There was plenty for everyone in last Friday’s US employment report. Bears (and most media) jumped on the massive increase in the unemployment…
In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Equities Growth & Labour Market
The coronavirus crisis may seem to have dragged on for an age, but the reality is that the initial shock hit markets and most economies less than 2½…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US
US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit
The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis becomes more apparent by the day. Yet equity markets have rallied impressively off March lows,…
In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy
The $2.2 trillion stimulus package signed into law last week (aka the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, Economic Security Act, or CARES) has prompted an outcry…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
Latest polls indicate a two-man race with Sanders to win many states and Biden coming in second. How these delegates are apportioned will come…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US
Is Michael Bloomberg done? As in, is he out of the presidential race for all practical purposes, or is he simply biding his time?…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities
Much to Mr. Market’s surprise and delight, a federal judge signed off on T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint’s merger plans on Tuesday. Sprint’s stock price…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Equities Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US
January was something of a bifurcated market. Equities generally tried to remain sanguine amid unsettling geopolitical developments, and US bond…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities
Will the $26bn T-Mobile/Sprint deal actually happen? The decision will be made in the next few weeks. Back in August it looked like a sure thing…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Growth & Labour Market US
Pop quiz time: when was the stock bubble of our lifetime? If you said homebuilders during 2005-6 (Chart 1), congratulations!
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
As most readers know, the repo market crashed on 17 September. Ever since then speculation has swirled as to exactly what set it off…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Equities Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US
Equity markets rode a rollercoaster during the first week of October. First there were several negative data surprises, but then they marched…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Rates
The warning flags are being hoisted. One blog cautions us about a coming blowout in the government and corporate bond markets when…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Geopolitics US
Knowing what we do today, the person who emerges with the Democratic nomination nine months from now will almost certainly be a…
In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Rates
The repo market flash crash certainly raised awareness of the fragile nature of money markets and market plumbing. Yet curiously no one…
In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Economics Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market UK US
Looking at month-to-month changes, you’d be forgiven for thinking that markets simply took a breather in September after the selloff in August.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit US
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics Investment Strategy US
There’s little debating the cause of the US/China trade war. There is a bellicose Donald Trump determined to vanquish trade deficits…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US
The summer of 1969. It was one of those special moments in American history. In July, man first walked on the moon…
In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US
The ECB is signalling that it may resume Quantitative Easing (QE) via bond purchases. And there is growing speculation that…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US
It’s a sure way to attract media coverage: publish a report calling for recession in the next year…
In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates
For most of us, including those trained in finance and the more practical side of economics, negative interest rates are anything but intuitive…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Other
When it comes to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft – or the FAANG+M complex – most of us love (or at least can’t live without) their products…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Equities Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK US
January was something of a bifurcated market. Equities generally tried to remain sanguine amid unsettling geopolitical developments, and US bond…
