If you would like to connect and contact the author,Over a 30-year career as a sell side analyst, John covered the structured finance and credit markets before serving as a corporate market strategist. In recent years, he has moved into a global strategist role.
In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change
Summary Europe advanced the climate change fight by proposing to cut emissions 55% by 2030, but any new policy could take two…
In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change
Summary Scientists can confidently project how rising emissions will affect global temperatures in coming decades unless curbed. But they are frustratingly vague…
In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change
Summary In the second instalment on climate change, we discuss two key parameters for understanding climate change policy: net zero emissions and…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth ESG & Climate Change
Summary This is the first instalment in a series on global warming and climate change. We review basic facts about how the…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary May’s weak retail sales are likely only the beginning. The retail sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 300%…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities
Summary We review the performance of recent investment positions and update our views. In recent months, equities have traded in a narrow…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary Equities and bond markets have been range-bound and quiescent for weeks now. But investors may not fully appreciate how much interest…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Growth & Labour Market
Summary The latest housing data shows homebuilders struggling to build houses fast enough – and consequently home prices are soaring. Demand comes…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary Financials, and banks particularly, soared after the US election, gaining a whopping 75% versus 47% for the S&P 500. Gains have…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Economic Growth Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary Equity markets fear inflation, while bond markets seem nonchalant. Prominent economists either criticize or praise the Fed. Everyone is unmoored, with…
In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change
Summary ESG investing is the hot new concept in asset management. But there is little convincing evidence that it makes a difference.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds
Summary The VIX volatility index is finally dropping into the teens, signalling potentially more tightening of high yield spreads from already decade-long…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary In equity markets, the 2021 storylines have been large caps versus smaller caps and growth versus value. After enjoying mega-rallies, growth…
In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US
Summary Based on the headline, well under 1% of taxpayers could be subject to a higher capital gains tax. The super wealthy…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary Clean energy and electric vehicle ETFs took a big hit in February and March when rising rates sparked a rotation out…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit
Summary With many investors worried about the prospect of rising rates, we review the historical relationship between Treasury returns and investment-grade and…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit
Summary High-yield spreads were surprisingly muted during the past month’s volatility. We see this indicating the underlying strong fundamentals and look for…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary Home sales dropped sharply in February largely due to weather, but we think there is more to it. Housing sales are…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Equities
After Tuesday’s selloff the Russell 2000 (RTY) has given up much of its year-to-date gains over the S&P 500 (Chart 1). In…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary We expected the Russell 2000 rally would slow in 2021, but instead it has outrun the S&P 500 by nearly 10%…
In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality
Summary Markets responded enthusiastically to the February labour market report. But on closer inspection, it was a bit short on substance. Most…
In: Hive Exclusives | Real Estate
Summary Rising rates have sparked alarm over inflation and the possible Fed response. But so far, few have wondered how the broader…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Summary Goods-oriented consumption has soared over the past year and spurred a strong rally in the retail XRT ETF, especially since the…
In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities COVID Equities ESG & Climate Change Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US
Summary President Biden aims for a large-scale infrastructure program with his upcoming four-year $1.9tn plan. But it is unlikely to be enacted…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Economic Growth Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality US
Summary Another month, another downbeat labour market report. Yet recovery need not be distant. Most of the pain was focused in the…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation Real Estate US
Summary Fed Chair Powell recently suggested that the surging housing market of 2H 2020 is due to people adjusting to the Covid-19…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities US
Summary Credit spreads are approaching decade tights. But history shows there is still some upside – especially in high yield – if…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US
Summary The retail sales print portrayed a back-sliding economy. But most of the pain was in the food service sector (i.e., restaurants…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US
Summary The Russell 2000 index has been on a hot streak since the election, far outperforming the SPX and NASDAQ 100 indices.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US
Summary Underlying trends in the US labour market are promising. Outside of the leisure and food service sectors, the private sector is…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Credit US
Summary The corporate bond market outlook is sanguine. Credit spreads are near the past decade’s tights and likely to remain in a…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
It goes without saying: the trajectory of the Biden presidency depends critically on whether Democrats gain control of the Senate in Georgia’s…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US
Summary The November US labour report was dismal, portraying an economy verging on a double-dip recession. Every key metric worsened or came…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US
Summary Early indications: November labour market report could either come in weaker than consensus forecasts or, if on the mark, already be…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality US
Summary Bankruptcy activity has been remarkably low in 2020 thanks to loan forbearance programs in the CARES legislation. Absent further action by…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit US
Summary High yield credit spreads gapped 80 bp tighter to 422 bp following the election, reaching a target we set in late…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Labour Market & Inequality US
Anyone watching equity markets yesterday surely noticed the Russell 2000 Index (+3.6%) robustly outperform the S&P 500 (+2.3%) and NASDAQ (-1.9%). Joe…
In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US
Summary The latest labour market report shows encouraging reduction in temporary unemployment but little improvement in structural unemployment. Exit polling suggests Republicans…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
Summary Results should become clear late on election night (Tuesday) or the next morning. Mail-in voting shouldn’t cause significant delays in counting…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Labour Market & Inequality US
Summary The latest US labour market report shows some modest gains but most of the underlying detail was uniformly negative. Payroll employment…
In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality US
Last Friday’s August labour market report had elements of both glass-half-full and glass-half-empty news. On balance, the half-empty glass still looks bigger…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US
Last week’s employment report offered several positive indicators for a nascent recovery. Payroll employment jumped by 4.8 million or 3.6%. The official…
In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality US
The latest employment insurance claims report, released on Thursday morning, bodes poorly for next week’s June employment report…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US
So, let’s get this straight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics somehow misclassified a bunch of people as employed when they should have been reported…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US
The recoveries that followed the recessions of 1992, 2001 and 2008-09 have often been called ‘jobless recoveries’. This was a term coined during…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
Willie Sutton was a famous bank robber during the 1930s. When asked why he robbed banks he reportedly replied, “Because that’s where the money…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US
There was plenty for everyone in last Friday’s US employment report. Bears (and most media) jumped on the massive increase in the unemployment…
In: Deep Dives | COVID Economic Growth Equities Labour Market & Inequality
The coronavirus crisis may seem to have dragged on for an age, but the reality is that the initial shock hit markets and most economies less than 2½…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US
US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Credit US
The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis becomes more apparent by the day. Yet equity markets have rallied impressively off March lows,…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
The $2.2 trillion stimulus package signed into law last week (aka the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, Economic Security Act, or CARES) has prompted an outcry…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
Latest polls indicate a two-man race with Sanders to win many states and Biden coming in second. How these delegates are apportioned will come…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
Is Michael Bloomberg done? As in, is he out of the presidential race for all practical purposes, or is he simply biding his time?…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US
Much to Mr. Market’s surprise and delight, a federal judge signed off on T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint’s merger plans on Tuesday. Sprint’s stock price…
In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID EM Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics UK US
January was something of a bifurcated market. Equities generally tried to remain sanguine amid unsettling geopolitical developments, and US bond…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US
Will the $26bn T-Mobile/Sprint deal actually happen? The decision will be made in the next few weeks. Back in August it looked like a sure thing…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Equities Labour Market & Inequality Real Estate US
Pop quiz time: when was the stock bubble of our lifetime? If you said homebuilders during 2005-6 (Chart 1), congratulations!
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation US
As most readers know, the repo market crashed on 17 September. Ever since then speculation has swirled as to exactly what set it off…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Equities Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics UK US
Equity markets rode a rollercoaster during the first week of October. First there were several negative data surprises, but then they marched…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Credit US
The warning flags are being hoisted. One blog cautions us about a coming blowout in the government and corporate bond markets when…
In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US
Knowing what we do today, the person who emerges with the Democratic nomination nine months from now will almost certainly be a…
In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation
The repo market flash crash certainly raised awareness of the fragile nature of money markets and market plumbing. Yet curiously no one…
In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality UK US
Looking at month-to-month changes, you’d be forgiven for thinking that markets simply took a breather in September after the selloff in August.…
In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Economic Growth
In: Hive Exclusives | China Politics & Geopolitics US
There’s little debating the cause of the US/China trade war. There is a bellicose Donald Trump determined to vanquish trade deficits…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth
The summer of 1969. It was one of those special moments in American history. In July, man first walked on the moon…
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
The ECB is signalling that it may resume Quantitative Easing (QE) via bond purchases. And there is growing speculation that…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth
It’s a sure way to attract media coverage: publish a report calling for recession in the next year…
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation
For most of us, including those trained in finance and the more practical side of economics, negative interest rates are anything but intuitive…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities
When it comes to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft – or the FAANG+M complex – most of us love (or at least can’t live without) their products…
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