Time to Visit China?

By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
2 min read

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We track scheduled flights (what’s planned) and tracked flights (what took off) from a sample of the largest airports across the world.

Looking at data up to 2 January 2023:

While global departures remain above 100,000, they are yet to recover to December highs and are 3% lower since our last report (Chart 1).
A lot happened over Christmas. Most notably, China announced that it would manage Covid-19 as a Class B infectious disease as it changed the official name to the ‘novel coronavirus infection’. On the same day, they also announced that starting 8 January quarantine requirements on inbound travellers would be removed. They were not done there. A day later, China announced that it would resume foreign visa applications. Departures have soared higher over the past week (Beijing: +32.5% WoW; Shanghai: 20.4%; Chart 4).
Hong Kong (-3.1% WoW) followed suit; they no longer require a Covid-19 test or vaccine pass upon arrival.
As a result, several nations will require tougher Covid-19 measures on Chinese travellers. However, China have deemed that ‘some excessive measures are unacceptable’.
US departures (+5.2% WoW) have driven higher following the Christmas break. Europe (+1.7% WoW) proved a laggard.

Information on long-term movements in flight data is available below.

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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Flight Tracker

Global Departures Plateau in Summer Peak

08 August 2023

Bilal Hafeez Ben Ford
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Flight Tracker

School Holidays to Reverse Falling EU Flight Departures

18 July 2023

Bilal Hafeez Ben Ford
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Flight Tracker

Asia Departures Climb as China Celebrates Dragon Boat Festival

27 June 2023

Bilal Hafeez Ben Ford
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Flight Tracker

Half-Term Holidays Drive European Departures Higher

06 June 2023

Bilal Hafeez Ben Ford

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Time to Visit China?

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

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Time to Visit China?

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

Enter your email to read this Macro Hive Exclusive

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

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