Benjamin Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Benjamin studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively. He has previously worked as a Summer Research Student at Cardiff University School of Mathematics where he designed the risk pricing model for their £600 million campus developments.
Rates | UK
Viresh Kanabar, Ben Ford
Summary Core and services inflation rose to 3.6% YoY and 5.6% in August. And while core now sits above BoE forecasts (3.4%), services inflation remains below. Meanwhile, wage growth is decelerating too slowly to force the BoE into a September rate cut. Assuming the BoE maintains a monthly pace of £100bn for balance sheet reduction, […]
Viresh Kanabar, Ben Ford
Summary Core and services inflation rose to 3.6% YoY and 5.6% in August. And while core now sits above BoE forecasts (3.4%), services inflation remains below. Meanwhile, wage growth is decelerating too slowly to force the BoE into a September rate cut. Assuming the BoE maintains a monthly pace of £100bn for balance sheet reduction, […]
Ben Ford
Summary BLS employment growth revisions (3PM UKT, Wednesday) are forecasted to be the largest in 15 years. However, the Fed are well prepped for revisions; Powell has already been vocal on the topic. Harris (Thursday) is due to speak on the final day of the DNC. She has already revealed a lot about her economic […]
Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez
Summary Momentum models slipped -0.2% over the past week. Rates (+0.4) were the only positive performer with FX (-0.3%) and equities (-0.9%) underperforming. Momentum models underperformed across all three asset classes over a three-month timeframe (equities: -5.3%, FX: -1.7%, and rates: -1.0%). Market Implications Momentum models are heavily bullish Gilts – we are long 10Y […]
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