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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Europe | FX | G10 | US
Ben Ford
Summary The 2027 French draft budget is out. Lecornu has introduced €43bn of new measures and extended another €11bn. Ahead, four important dates remain: 6 October, 20 October, 27 October, and 17 November. We see four reasons the EUR/USD downtrend can extend to 1.10: France’s budget failed to eliminate the tail move. Extreme bearishness need […]
Antonio Del Favero
Published on Bloomberg chats on Tuesday, 29 September 12.44 and 13.18 LDN. Here, I am giving an update. Market Implications OATs-Bunds is likely to break 130bp (this was our expectation since it was trading just below 100bp on 18 September), and USD rates vs German rates (10Y) is likely to break 1.75%. Rates Have Not […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Markets expect more tightening than the Fed, contributing to a substantial flattening of the yield curve. Historically, the yield curve has provided unusually strong recession signals, particularly 12–24 months ahead. The 2022–24 false positive shows the need for a reality check: permits, orders, and profits provide useful shorter-horizon signals. The Fed cannot escape implicit […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
This report presents outputs from Macro Hive’s quantitative model for informational purposes only. Model signals and recommendations describe model outputs and do not constitute trade ideas, investment recommendations or investment advice by Macro Hive. They should not be interpreted as a recommendation to enter into, maintain or exit any transaction. Summary Global yields extended higher, […]
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank.
In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles.
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PM at Point 72
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