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    About Macro Hive

    Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro research and strategy.

    Trusted by clients at 7 of the world's top 10 banks and all top 5 hedge funds, we combine best-in-class human and artificial intelligence to provide institutional investors with market-leading investment opportunities.

    Our experts leverage large language models, such as those that power chatbots like ChatGPT, to develop innovative, data-driven solutions to complex financial problems and to build state-of-the-art models in search of alpha signals across asset classes.

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    Hive on Media more videos

    NFP, a 50bp Fed Cut in September, and Recession Signs

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    US CPI and 2024 Fed Cuts

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    If the Fed Is Done, Do You Buy Bonds?

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    AI Insights read all

    1. AI Reflections: Which LLM Performs Best? Our Benchmark Says Fine-Tuning Wins

      Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]

    2. AI reflections: Think Before You Speak!

      Summary Inference-time scaling is the New Frontier: AI progress is shifting to focus more on inference-time scaling techniques that refine responses after initial training. Deeper Reasoning, Longer Waits: Enabling models to break complex tasks into smaller steps during inference results in longer waiting times but better responses. Better Cost-Outcome Alignment: This approach better aligns cost […]

    3. 8 Cool New AI Papers: From Anxious LLMs to Fake News Detection

      Assessing and Alleviating State Anxiety in LLMs: Finds that trauma prompts can change the ‘state’ anxiety of LLMs, while relaxation ones reduce anxiety! Structured Outputs Enable General-Purpose LLMs to Be Medical Experts: The paper does away with fine-tuning an LLM on medical data and instead introduces a seven-step cognitive process (chain-of-thought) to answer questions. E.g., […]

    Latest Research read all

    Monetary Policy & Inflation | US

    Macro Consensus Challenger: Balanced Weaknesses in Labour Demand and Supply

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary NFPs were higher than expected but half of the increase came from the government sector, with private NFPs below expectations. June’s labour supply continued weakening following the end of the immigration surge. Labour demand and supply weaknesses roughly balanced out with the unemployment rate 12bp lower. Wage growth slowed further, which made for slower […]

    1. Momentum Models Reduce Bearish USD Positioning, Flip Bearish 10Y USTs

      Richard Jones

      When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models’ performance was flat over the past week (equities +0.4%, rates +0.1%, and FX -0.4%). Momentum models have registered negative returns across all three asset classes over the past three months […]

    2. Are Equity and Bond Markets Both Wrong?

      Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

      Summary Equity and bond market pricing of the US economic outlook could only be consistent under the ‘Goldilocks’ economic conditions prevailing during 2022-24’s immigration surge. But immigration has collapsed, which is likely to cause ‘stagflation-lite’ economic conditions. Soft private sector demand due to weak confidence will dampen inflationary pressures in 2025. The fiscal stimulus Congress […]

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 316: Kyle Keane on AI, Forecasting and Turning Blind

      Dr. Kyle Keane is a Senior Lecturer in Assistive Technologies at the University of Bristol, where he leads research at the intersection of artificial intelligence, human cognition and assistive technology design. With a background in quantum computing and computational physics, he applies the scientific rigor of a physicist to studying human perception and the engineer’s precision to designing technologies that translate complex information into interpretable, multi-sensory experiences.

    2. Ep. 315: Keyu Jin on What Everyone Gets Wrong on China

      Keyu Jin is a Professor of Economics at the LSE. She is an academic member of the China Finance 40 Group and has worked with the World Bank, the IMF, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and is a non-executive board member of the luxury conglomerate Richemont and Jardine Matheson.

    3. Ep. 314: Marvin Barth on Trump’s US Resurgence, No Fed Cuts and Dire Europe

      Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and ‘Seriously, Marvin?!’ Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin does not have time to research at Thematic Markets.

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