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    Hive on Media more videos

    Chip Cycles, European Tech, and the Dollar Resilience

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    Will the Iran War Trigger the Next Debt Shock

    Bilal Hafeez on Al Jazeera

    "Post-War" Rally, Dollar Weakness Return, and European Tech

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    Latest Strategy read all

    AI | Economics & Growth

    Ep. 381: Tomasz Nadrowski on Energy Chokepoints, Asymmetric Warfare, and Critical Minerals

    Bilal Hafeez

    Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world’s largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today.

    1. The Week Ahead: Is the Fed Recalibration Past Its Sell Date?

      Macro Hive

      Dominique and Antonio explore expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve policy alongside the economic and geopolitical implications of sticky inflation, upcoming midterm elections, and Middle East tensions. They analyse the unusual conundrum of persistent inflation occurring alongside wage disinflation and an ongoing productivity boom, as well as consumer resilience supported by stock market wealth effects and falling savings rates despite contracting real incomes. While the Fed is expected to remain on hold next week as it pursues a gradual "recalibration," focus shifts to whether persistent price pressures will prompt a 25-basis-point rate hike in December and a dot plot projecting further tightening next year. Dominique notes that potential congressional flips will not immediately constrain executive foreign policy in the Middle East, and he maintains that US economic resilience is likely to persist over the next couple of quarters.

    2. Central Bank Decisions

      Macro Hive

      Developed Markets   Wed 28 Oct – FOMC. I expect the Fed to hold rates, with Warsh delivering a hawkish press conference that avoids forward guidance while keeping further hikes on the table. Wed 28 Oct – UK Autumn Budget. Headline surprises should be smaller than previous years. Potential swings will ultimately come from departmental […]

    3. What I Learned from the Biggest Market Movers This Week

      Bilal Hafeez

      The equity story was not what you thought. Asian stocks fell, but (vol-adjusted) India fell more than Korea (Chart 1). As for the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq didn’t even experience a one standard deviation weekly move (Chart 2). Instead, the equal-weighted S&P 500 and Russell-2000 did – and it was up! FX saw […]

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 381: Tomasz Nadrowski on Energy Chokepoints, Asymmetric Warfare, and Critical Minerals

      Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world’s largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today.

    2. Ep. 380: Alex Edmans on Market Bubbles, Investor Biases, and the Madness of Markets

      Alex Edmans is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and is one of the world’s leading academics on company purpose, social value, and profit. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar and was previously a tenured professor at Wharton and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley.

    3. Ep. 379: Paul Cavey on East Asia’s AI Tech Boom, Semiconductor Exports, and Macro Dynamics

      Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

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