BILAL'S TOP PICKS
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Markets & Investing
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Monetary Policy & Inflation
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Fiscal Policy & Inequality
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Growth & Labour Market
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Politics
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Data, Models & Market Plumbing
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China
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ESG & Climate Change
Portfolios for Long-Term Investors (NBER, 48 page read)
A deep learning algorithm for optimal investment strategies (ARXIV, 13 page read)
The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Asset Prices: The Case of the United Kingdom’s EU Membership Referendum (IMF, 24 page read)
Equity Volatility Term Premia (Liberty Street Economics, 12 min read)
The Law of One Price in Equity Volatility Markets (Liberty Street Economics, 9 min read)
Cointelegraph announces the Top 100 Notable People in Blockchain 2021 (CoinTelegraph, 3 min read)
The wisdom of the Robinhood crowd (NBER, 32 page read)
Notes on technology in the 2020s (Eli Dourado, 8 min read)
Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery (NYT, 4 min read)
Review of 2020: Chaos on a Roll (Risk.net, 6 min read)
Rise Up: Vaccines Brought Broader Market Participation (Charles Schwab, 6 min read)
Bull or Bear in 2021? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
It’s the index, stupid! Our New Not-So-Neutral Financial Market Arbiters (Notes on the Crises, 12 min read)
5 key metrics signal Ethereum price is ready to make a new 2020 high (CoinTelegraph, 3 min read)
It’s the most wonder-bull time of the year (Variant Perception, 2 min read)
Jeremy Siegel: 2021 will be a Bull Market for Stocks (Advisor Perspectives, 10 min read)
“High” Yield yields hit a low (M&G Investments, 6 min read)
Here Are The Blockchain Networks Most Popular With Capital Markets Players (CB Insights, 3 min read)
Will Capital Flows through Global Banks Support Economic Recovery? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)
Staying Afloat: New Measures to Support European Businesses (IMF Blog, 4 min read)
Central Banks’ Green Goals Are Raising Red Flags (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)
Pulling Up the Inflation Anchor (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)
The Draghi Power Triangle (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks (IMF Blog, 5 min read)
Do banks need belts and braces? (Bank Underground, 7 min read)
Powell keeps eye on maximum employment (OMFIF, 2 min read)
US inflation: The only way is up! (ING, 5 min read)
Le Pont de Londres: monetary policy spillovers, prudential policies and the financial centre effect (Bank Underground, 5 min read)
What to Look for in the January Consumer Price Index (CEPR, 3 min read)
Bank of England urges co-operation on clearing (OMFIF, 2 min read)
Post-Covid inflation risks for the UK (VoxEU, 6 min read)
Inflation and the Biden stimulus (VoxEU, 3 min read)
The Pre-Pandemic Debt Landscape—and Why It Matters (IMF, 2 min read)
Central bank digital currencies risk becoming a gigantic flop (VoxEU, 5 min read)
Fed should speak out on financial stability (OMFIF, 2 min read)
Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries (IMF, 39 page read)
Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses (OECD, 26 page read)
A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge (IMF, 7 min read)
Expect inflation and strong second-half recovery (OMFIF, 2 min read)
Shariah-Compliant Crypto Exchange Wins License From Bahrain Central Bank (Coindesk, 1 min read)
Beware rising neutral rates (OMFIF, 3 min read)
How competitive are UK insurance markets? (Bank Underground, 5 min read)
Why rising public debt won’t drive countries into difficulties (OMFIF, 2 min read)
What’s behind the recent surge in the M1 money supply? (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 6 min read)
‘Leaning against the wind’ and the risk of financial crises (VoxEU, 5 min read)
The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries (BIS, 18 page read)
Recessions and Mortality: A Global Perspective (BIS, 32 page read)
When Inequality is High, Pandemics Can Fuel Social Unrest (IMF Blog, 2 min read)
Inflation Was Sooo 1970s! Will It Roar Back in the 2020s? (Dr Ed’s Blog, 8 min read)
An Open Letter to Joe Biden on International Corporate Taxation (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
The comeback of ‘r > g’ (VoxEU, 5 min read)
How Will Our Children Know They Face a Crushing Debt Burden? (CEPR, 6 min read)
Did Subsidies to Too-Big-To-Fail Banks Increase during the COVID-19 Pandemic? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)
Helicopter money in another pandemic recession: Venice, 1630 (VoxEU, 4 min read)
Corporate Governance after GameStop (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality (NBER, 14 page read)
England’s Lockdown Lessons (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)
Policy responses to the corporate solvency problem in the ongoing Covid-19 crisis (VoxEU, 8 min read)
US Institutions After Trump (Project Syndicate, 8 min read)
Sovereign Debt Standstills (NBER, 16 page read)
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries (Federal Reserve, 8 min read)
Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record (NBER, 34 page read)
Assessing The Fiscal Implications Of Banking Crises (BIS, 17 page read)
Fiscal Policy for an Unprecedented Crisis (IMF Blog, 3 min read)
Pandemics and inequality: A historical overview (Vox EU, 7 min read)
Biden’s business tax plan: More complexity, questionable effect (PIIE, 8 min read)
Elephant who lost its trunk: Continued growth in Asia, but the slowdown in top 1% growth after the financial crisis (Vox EU, 8 min read)
Big budget spending isn’t new: it’s a return to what worked before (The Conversation,5 min read)
How much stress could Covid put on corporate credit? Evidence using sectoral data (BIS, 12 min read)
Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies (IMF, 45 page read)
Economic costs of inequitable vaccine distribution across the world (VoxEU, 3 min read)
The geography of working from home and the implications for the service industry (VoxEU, 5 min read)
Flattening the curve: Pandemic-induced revaluation of urban real estate (VoxEU, 4 min read)
Poor Countries’ Technology Dilemma (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Job Seekers’ Beliefs and the Causes of Long-Term Unemployment (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)
Text-based recession probabilities (ECB, 24 page read)
Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy (PIMCO, 4 min read)
The Remarkable Growth in Financial Economics, 1974-2020 (NBER, 32 page read)
2021 US outlook: The recovery takes hold (Invesco, 4 min read)
A Tale of Two Economies (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
How a Collective Infrastructure Push Will Boost Global Growth (IMF, 2 min read)
Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning (FEDS, 21 page read)
A Proposal for an Auction-Based Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (VoxEU, 4 min read)
The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Corporate Loan Market (Liberty Street Economics, 5 min read)
Cloudy with a chance of tariffs: the impact of policy uncertainty on the global economy (Bank Underground, 6 min read)
Pandemics swing elections, but not as much as you think (VoxEU, 6 min read)
“Pop-Up” Regulations for Big Tech (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)
Draghi’s grandest and gravest mission (OMFIF, 3 min read)
The Coronavirus Vaccine Fail and International Elites (CEPR, 7 min read)
Where Biden Should Be More Like Trump (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)
Why Partisanship Will Increase in the Post-Trump Era (CEPR, 4 min read)
The Siren Song of Austerity (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
The Democrats’ problem in the Senate, explained (The Bonddad Blog, 3 min read)
Why Biden Can Overcome Political Gridlock (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)
The Democrats’ Four-Year Reprieve (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Putin’s Flatlining Economy (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Political polarisation and expected economic outcomes (VoxEU, 6 min read)
Trump’s phase one trade deal with China and the US election (Peterson Institute For International Economics, 12 min read)
How Likely Is It that Courts Will Select the US President? The Probability of Narrow, Reversible Election Results in the Electoral College versus a National Popular Vote (NBER, 22 page read)
The Psychology of Trump’s Debate Rudeness (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Bidenomics versus Trumponomics (OMFIF, 3 min read)
Scotland after Sterling (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Post-COVID Capitalism (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
3 Reasons to Expect Election Result Delays (Schwab, 3 min read)
Regional Heterogeneity and US Presidential Elections (INET, 35 page read)
The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle (Cambridge INET, 43 page read)
The Economics of Hedge Fund Startups: Theory and Empirical Evidence (Journal of Finance, 36 page read)
Pricing Currency Risks (NBER, 29 page read)
Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts? (INET, 26 page read)
How News Affects Sectoral Stock Prices Through Earnings Expectations and Risk Premia (ECB, 20 page read)
The Youths Are Coming For The Housing Market (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)
Everybody Lies: Pollster Edition (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)
It Is Time To Scrap the IMF’s Reserve Adequacy Metric (CFR, 6 min read)
Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing And Why It Matters (NBER, 37 page read)
The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks (CFR, 4 min read)
Machine Learning the News for Better Macroeconomic Forecasting (Bank Underground, 5 min read)
Why category leading brick and mortar retailers are likely the biggest long term COVID beneficiaries (Gavin Baker,13 min read)
Machine learning the news for better macroeconomic forecasting (Bank Underground, 5 min read)
Global connectedness and market power make firms more resilient to domestic COVID-19 shocks (Vox EU, 6 min read)
Covered Interest Parity in long-dated securities (Norges Bank, 33 page read)
An EU-China Deal for a Bygone Era (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)
Remarks by IMF Managing Director at the Climate Adaptation Summit (IMF, 1 min read)
The Impact of US Tariffs Against China on US Imports: Evidence for Trade Diversion? (ECB, 15 page read)
Big Tech Companies in Chinese Finance (PIIE, 60 min watch)
China Leads Again (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)
How Has China’s Economy Performed under the COVID-19 Shock? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)
China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye (Brad Setser, 3 min read)
China: seven things investors should know (LGIM Blog, 3 min read)
Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different? (BIS, 20 page read)
Behind the Stability in China’s Currency: Beijing’s Hidden Hand (Barron’s, 4 min read)
One Belt, One Road, One Way? (Maastricht University, 23 page read)
Chinese Open Source Data Collection, Big Data, And Private Enterprise Work For State Intelligence and Security: The Case of Shenzhen Zhenhua (NBER, 5 page read)
The Big Cycles of China and Its Currency (Ray Dalio, 15 page read)
Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk (NBER, 28 page read)
Private sector’s retreat jeopardises rebound (OMFIF, 4 min read)
Europe’s ESG Opportunity (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)
Neglecting climate change endangers ECB independence (OMFIF, 1 min read)
Why everyone should be using Signal instead of WhatsApp (Wired, 3 min read)
Time to align finance with biodiversity objectives (OMFIF, 2 min read)
An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults (IMF, 14 page read)
Green bond issuance set to double by 2023 after hitting $1trn (Expert Investor, 2 min read)
Building ESG momentum in US equities (Amundi, 7 min read)
The Core of the ECB’s New Strategy (Project Syndicate,4 min read)
Green Asset Pricing (ECB, 35 page read)
ESG investing looks like just another stock bubble (Advisor Perspectives, 3 min read)
Economic Aspects of the Energy Transition (NBER) Paper argues that we are not correctly accounting for the increase in electricity prices.
HIVE EXCLUSIVES
The Fed is Failing (1 min read)
By
Bilal Hafeez
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Mar 01, 2021
The Fed’s failure is neither that rates…
BRL is Cheap, But Not Yet a Buy (4 min read)
By
Reuven Benichou
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Feb 26, 2021
Brazil’s financial markets have tumbled this week…
Stop Buying Stuff, Plan to Splurge on Fun Activities Instead (2 min read)
By
John Tierney
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Feb 25, 2021
Most people will remember 2020 and 2021…
DEEP DIVES
Do ESG Ratings Affect IPO Valuations? (4 min read)
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
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Mar 03, 2021
A firm’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG)…
Can the S&P 500 Help Forecast Changes in the USD? (6 min read)
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
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Feb 24, 2021
Outperforming a random walk model when trying…
What Is Driving Chinese Growth? (5 min read)
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
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Feb 17, 2021
For decades, many have questioned the accuracy…
HIVE INDICATORS
Where Can you Get Higher Bond Yields?
By
Caroline Grady
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Dec 04, 2020
US yields are rising. The combination of…
Global COVID-19 Tracker – India Overtakes Brazil, UK Cases Rise (4 min read)
By
Bilal Hafeez
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Sep 07, 2020
Over the last week (31 August –…
Global COVID-19 Tracker – Latest Restrictions In US And UK / EU Decides On Travel
By
Bilal Hafeez
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Jun 30, 2020
In the DM world, US recorded a…
