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    About Macro Hive

    Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro strategy.

    Trusted by clients at 7 of the world's top 10 banks and all top 5 hedge funds, we combine best-in-class human and artificial intelligence to provide institutional investors with market-leading investment opportunities.

    Our experts leverage large language models, such as those that power chatbots like ChatGPT, to develop innovative, data-driven solutions to complex financial problems and to build state-of-the-art models in search of alpha signals across asset classes.

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    Hive on Media more videos

    Chip Cycles, European Tech, and the Dollar Resilience

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    Will the Iran War Trigger the Next Debt Shock

    Bilal Hafeez on Al Jazeera

    "Post-War" Rally, Dollar Weakness Return, and European Tech

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    Latest Strategy read all

    Monetary Policy & Inflation | US

    The Week Ahead: Minutes and Midterms

    Macro Hive

    Ben and Dominique review recent US economic data, Fed policy expectations, and the upcoming midterm elections. They analyse PCE revisions showing slow disinflation and more sustainable consumer growth alongside ISM prints and softer payroll numbers, noting that labour market dynamics are currently supply-driven by immigration enforcement trends. While Fed speakers push back against an October rate hike to avoid yield curve inversion, focus shifts to the upcoming FOMC minutes for insight into internal board disagreements over neutral rates and inflation dynamics. Dominique also assesses the midterms, noting that while prediction markets favour Congress turning blue—reducing fiscal slippage risks—broader fiscal consolidation remains off the table.

    1. Inflation, Hikes, and Europe’s Budget Test

      Macro Hive

      Developed Markets Mon 5 Oct – US September S&P and ISM Services PMIs. Consensus expects an unchanged S&P PMI and a small decrease in the ISM PMI. Mon 5 Oct – ECB Schnabel. With September core CPI at 2.5%, the ECB will not hike in October. We still think it will hike in December, unless […]

    2. OATs vs. Bunds No Longer Asymmetric at 150bp (20bp Above My Original 130bp Level) but Could Widen Further. BTPs vs. Bunds Likely Too.

      Antonio Del Favero

      Published on Bloomberg chats on Friday, 2 October at  12.35 LDN. For those of us who have, unfortunately, been around for more than 20 years, it is well known that fiscal risk never truly disappears—it just hides for a while, sometimes for long stretches, before suddenly coming back. And when it does, it moves fast. […]

    3. Ep. 378: Apurv Jain on Alternative Data, Real-Time Macro Nowcasting, and AI’s Economic Role

      Bilal Hafeez

      Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts.

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 378: Apurv Jain on Alternative Data, Real-Time Macro Nowcasting, and AI’s Economic Role

      Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts.

    2. Ep. 377: Jay Pelosky on the Tripolar World, the Spending Super Cycle, and the Global Earnings Boom

      Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.

    3. Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China’s Swing Power

      Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank.

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