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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Al Jazeera
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Japan
Viresh Kanabar
Summary September may have marked peak BoJ hawkishness. Dissents from Asada and Sato complicate the idea of a unified Japan-US push for a stronger JPY, while there is still limited evidence that the median Board member sees neutral at 2%. The two clearest advocates of a 2% terminal rate, Tamura and Takata, both leave in […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Summary Hedge Funds (HF) split activity across Equities and FX; in Equities, they added to NASDAQ 100 and S&P500 shorts. FX was the other notable pocket, where they trimmed GBP and MXN longs. Rates was the other notable pocket, where they trimmed 30d FF longs. Real Money (RM) made its clearest moves in FX, adding […]
Macro Hive
Ben and Dominique examine the tension between market pricing for Fed rate hikes and economic realities, warning that pushing additional rate increases could invert the yield curve and signal an impending recession. They analyse upcoming PCE data revisions expected to lower core inflation, arguing that sticky services costs stem from structural factors like a lack of corporate competition rather than labour market pressures. While consumer spending remains solid, Dominique highlights that it is being sustained by a declining savings rate rather than strong real income growth, though full employment allows the Fed to maintain its policy recalibration. Looking ahead to non-farm payrolls and a heavy slate of upcoming Fed speakers, Dominique notes that productivity-adjusted wage growth should keep the labour market non-inflationary.
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is: PCE – Wednesday. Consensus expects core MoM to round up to 0.3%, a relatively hot print that would leave the YoY print at 3.3%, unchanged from July. However, the BEA will provide data revisions starting in Q1 2021 that are expected to lower the August […]
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank.
In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles.
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PM at Point 72
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