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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Equities | FX
Bilal Hafeez
We’re in the final quarter of the year, but it’s worth taking lessons from Q3 returns: Commodities delivered big (over 15% returns) in Q3. But Q2 saw negative returns, so swings in energy and Middle East risk continue to loom large in markets. FX carry wins (again). While many focus on the ups-and-downs of the […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Summary Hedge Funds (HF) were busiest in FX, adding to EUR, CAD, and GBP shorts while trimming BRL longs. Equities was the other notable pocket, where they trimmed MSCI EAFE longs. Real Money (RM) made its clearest moves in FX, adding to AUD and NZD shorts and JPY longs while trimming MXN longs. Rates also […]
Macro Hive
Ben and Dominique review recent US economic data, Fed policy expectations, and the upcoming midterm elections. They analyse PCE revisions showing slow disinflation and more sustainable consumer growth alongside ISM prints and softer payroll numbers, noting that labour market dynamics are currently supply-driven by immigration enforcement trends. While Fed speakers push back against an October rate hike to avoid yield curve inversion, focus shifts to the upcoming FOMC minutes for insight into internal board disagreements over neutral rates and inflation dynamics. Dominique also assesses the midterms, noting that while prediction markets favour Congress turning blue—reducing fiscal slippage risks—broader fiscal consolidation remains off the table.
Macro Hive
Developed Markets Mon 5 Oct – US September S&P and ISM Services PMIs. Consensus expects an unchanged S&P PMI and a small decrease in the ISM PMI. Mon 5 Oct – ECB Schnabel. With September core CPI at 2.5%, the ECB will not hike in October. We still think it will hike in December, unless […]
Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts.
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank.
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