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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Al Jazeera
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
AI | Economics & Growth | Rates | US
Bilal Hafeez
After my weekly review of all external research, I got inspired by these charts: US Cyclical Upturn. There is a noticeable upturn in key US cyclical indicators (Chart 1). Another Sign of Bearish Tech Sentiment. EM managers have a big equity underweight in Taiwan (Chart 2)! On top of the fact that US stocks have […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Summary Our framework utilises trends in analysts’ forecasts to predict upcoming US inflation prints. This month, the model is marginally above consensus on core m/m (0.24%), headline m/m (0.62%) and headline y/y (3.65%), but below on core y/y (2.44%). FX options are pricing sizeable CPI premiums, particularly in USD/SEK, AUD/USD and USD/NOK. This year’s largest […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Summary Hedge Funds (HF) were busiest in FX, adding to BRL and GBP longs. Equities was the other notable pocket, where they added to Nikkei (yen) shorts while trimming MSCI EAFE longs. Rates was the other notable pocket, where they added to 30d FF longs. Real Money (RM) made its clearest moves in FX, adding […]
Macro Hive
Ben and Dominique evaluate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, pointing to recent Fed speeches and FOMC minutes that signal the central bank will keep rates on hold in October. They analyse upcoming economic data, highlighting a growing disconnect between headline and core CPI due to limited energy pass-through, explaining why PPI gains will not alter Fed policy, and noting how real wage contraction continues to weigh on retail sales and consumer spending. While the Fed remains cautious about aggressive rate hikes, focus shifts to upcoming Fed commentary for signs that confidence in medium-term growth may be cooling. Dominique notes that moderating optimism around the AI boom and shifting midterm election odds—where prediction markets favour a House flip—could further temper Fed hawkishness.
Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts.
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.
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