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    Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro strategy.

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    Hive on Media more videos

    Chip Cycles, European Tech, and the Dollar Resilience

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    Will the Iran War Trigger the Next Debt Shock

    Bilal Hafeez on Al Jazeera

    "Post-War" Rally, Dollar Weakness Return, and European Tech

    Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV

    Latest Strategy read all

    Monetary Policy & Inflation | US

    The Week Ahead: Is the Fed Recalibration Past Its Sell Date?

    Macro Hive

    Dominique and Antonio explore expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve policy alongside the economic and geopolitical implications of sticky inflation, upcoming midterm elections, and Middle East tensions. They analyse the unusual conundrum of persistent inflation occurring alongside wage disinflation and an ongoing productivity boom, as well as consumer resilience supported by stock market wealth effects and falling savings rates despite contracting real incomes. While the Fed is expected to remain on hold next week as it pursues a gradual "recalibration," focus shifts to whether persistent price pressures will prompt a 25-basis-point rate hike in December and a dot plot projecting further tightening next year. Dominique notes that potential congressional flips will not immediately constrain executive foreign policy in the Middle East, and he maintains that US economic resilience is likely to persist over the next couple of quarters.

    1. Central Bank Decisions

      Macro Hive

      Developed Markets   Wed 28 Oct – FOMC. I expect the Fed to hold rates, with Warsh delivering a hawkish press conference that avoids forward guidance while keeping further hikes on the table. Wed 28 Oct – UK Autumn Budget. Headline surprises should be smaller than previous years. Potential swings will ultimately come from departmental […]

    2. What I Learned from the Biggest Market Movers This Week

      Bilal Hafeez

      The equity story was not what you thought. Asian stocks fell, but (vol-adjusted) India fell more than Korea (Chart 1). As for the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq didn’t even experience a one standard deviation weekly move (Chart 2). Instead, the equal-weighted S&P 500 and Russell-2000 did – and it was up! FX saw […]

    3. Loud Bears, Steady Stocks, FX Carry Winning

      Bilal Hafeez

      The chorus of negativity towards stocks has been relentless. Our US equity news sentiment index has been in negative territory for almost two months now.   Yet, throughout this, US equities have essentially traded sideways. From price levels, one would not think that investors have been in a panic about AI doom, neocloud failures, and yield […]

    Hive Podcast more podcasts

    1. Ep. 380: Alex Edmans on Market Bubbles, Investor Biases, and the Madness of Markets

      Alex Edmans is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and is one of the world’s leading academics on company purpose, social value, and profit. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar and was previously a tenured professor at Wharton and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley.

    2. Ep. 379: Paul Cavey on East Asia’s AI Tech Boom, Semiconductor Exports, and Macro Dynamics

      Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

    3. Ep. 378: Apurv Jain on Alternative Data, Real-Time Macro Nowcasting, and AI’s Economic Role

      Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts.

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