Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Since the December 2022 meeting, the macro backdrop of lower inflation and strong employment growth has decisively validated neither hawks nor doves.
John Tierney
We are unwinding long positions in industrials (XLI) and materials (XLB). Both have outperformed the S&P 500 since inception on April 2022.
Dalvir Mandara
Crypto markets have started the year with a bang. Bitcoin is on track to register its best performance for January since 2013! It gained c.+55% in January 2013 and has generally had a bias for negative performance since then with the trend only changing as of late (January 2020: +30%; January 2021: +13%).
John Tierney
Our long/short ETF model portfolio is up a modest 2% since inception, and 11% excluding the difficult clean energy sector. Clean energy ETFs hold some Chinese companies, which could recover if the reopening takes hold.
Macro Hive Week Ahead
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne on Macro Hive
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
2023 has started with a positive tone. Most risk markets from equities to crypto are up, and we identify four driving themes:
The current dollar uptrend has lasted three years longer than the average (seven). Now, foreign investors are selling US equities while the market thinks the Fed is near the end of its hiking cycle.
Private equity companies are performing suspiciously well and appear overvalued. Now the Fed and other central banks have ramped up rates, the PE bubble is finally starting to burst.
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Ben Ford
The labour force has continued to prove resilient with participation climbing, unemployment lower and wage growth remaining positive (vs core).
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper examines the plausibility of the December 2022 SEP projections for medium-term US inflation.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Over the past week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) failed to widen the yield curve control (YCC), contrary to our expectations. Instead, they added a new operation to help support the existing band (+/- 50bps).
Dalvir Mandara
Big news: Genesis Trading, one of the biggest cryptocurrency lenders, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, making it the latest victim of the FTX fallout.
ESG & Climate Change
Richard Jones
Global climate challenges are complex. Addressing them goes beyond the environment and extends to global diplomacy and growth in developing countries.
Julius Probst, PhD
Coined by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, ‘creative destruction’ the process of industrial mutation that destroys old economic structures and replaces them with new ones.
Richard Jones
Swiss National Bank (SNB) monetary policy is in play – understanding market pricing of SNB expectations is critical.
John Tierney
An oil ETF is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offers investors exposure to the oil industry or oil as a commodity.
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank.
Niels is the Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe) which has a track record going back over 45 years. Alan is the Founder and CEO of Archive Capital – a boutique alternative investment research firm.
Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation.
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Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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