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Rates
Sam van de Schootbrugge
This report presents outputs from Macro Hive’s quantitative model for informational purposes only. Model signals and recommendations describe model outputs and do not constitute trade ideas, investment recommendations or investment advice by Macro Hive. They should not be interpreted as a recommendation to enter into, maintain or exit any transaction. Summary Rates were split across […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary KRW strength has accelerated as exporter USD conversions overwhelm still-heavy financial-account outflows, with the current-account surplus now running above $40bn per month. Foreign equity selling remains large, but the balance-of-payments picture has shifted materially as the gap between the rolling current-account surplus and financial-account outflows has widened to around $83bn. We try to forecast […]
Antonio Del Favero
Published on Bloomberg chats on Monday, 12 October 17.56 and Tuesday, 13 October 05.01 LDN. Here is an update. Summary Treasury’s Friday dealer survey could signal long-end supply cuts ahead of the November QRA, while a slightly hotter CPI should not trigger a materially lower terminal rate. Market Implications US rates have likely peaked short-term, […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary The September minutes reinforce Bullock’s cautious tone: the RBA now appears more confident that policy is restrictive, which should raise the bar for repeated hikes even if another move remains possible. The labour market is not weak enough to stop further tightening. Vacancies and employment indicators point to stabilisation, leaving the RBA room to […]
Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts.
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.
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