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Globalsee more…

  1. Momentum Models Flag the S&P 500 to Underperform

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum model signals sit in contrast to our view to fade CHF strength. They are also yet to get fully on board with our bullish USD basket trade (vs EUR, CHF and GBP).

  2. Two Reasons Why the Dollar May Struggle for Direction

    Vasileios Gkionakis

    As of 8 September, the dollar had risen by 4.8% since mid-July, its largest gain over a 41-day period since mid-October 2022. 

  3. Look for Idiosyncratic, Relative-Value and Carry Trades in FX

    Vasileios Gkionakis

    Idiosyncratic and relative-value (RV) trades are currently appealing. Look for monetary policy divergences (Bank of England repricing lower, rates re-pricing in CEE), sensitivity to ongoing muted Chinese growth, and energy prices.

  1. Momentum Models Move Max Long S&P While Being Max Short 10Y Treasuries

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities. 

  2. G10 FX Weekly: USD Is on a Tear, But It Is Too Soon to Fade

    Richard Jones

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at a six-month high, having risen for eight straight weeks.  This rise has momentum and will probably continue into Q4.  At some stage, we think the rally will be worth fading because it cannot continue indefinitely, and a correction is inevitable. 

  3. Momentum Models Suggest the Increase in Yields Is Far From Over!

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities.

G10 FX Weekly: Dovish ECB Pricing Favours Tactical Bearish Rates Positions

Richard Jones

Last week saw whipsaw moves in market pricing for the ECB rate decision on 14 September. The net result is that the market now prices only ~6 basis points (bp) of tightening (or a ~24% probability of a 25bp hike) for the September ECB rate decision.

Momentum Models Flag US Rates to Underperform JGBs

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Momentum models back our view to be long 10Y JGBs vs 10Y USTs (target: -400bps) and long EUR/CHF. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities. They disagree with our view for GBP/CAD to trade lower over the next six months.

  1. G10 FX Weekly: Three Key Trades Following Jackson Hole

    Richard Jones

    The annual gathering in Jackson Hole is over, with senior central bankers including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde having spoken at the event.

  2. Momentum Models Continue to Expect FTSE-100 Underperformance

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

  3. G10 FX Weekly: Antipodean and Scandi Trends to Accelerate Next Month

    Richard Jones

    As with the rest of the G10 FX and rates space, Antipodean and Scandi markets have been rangebound in July-August as investors await a decisive September and Q4 for developed market central banks. We expect the rangebound price action to hold in Aussie, Kiwi, Norwegian and Swedish markets in the next week or two.

Momentum Models Heavily Bearish on USTs, JGBs, Bunds and Gilts

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Market Implications Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

G10 FX Weekly: Preparing for UK Short End to Outperform

Richard Jones

G10 FX and rates markets are chopping around within ranges as investors await a busy September for developed market central banks. We expect the rangebound performances of July and August to hold in coming weeks.

  1. Ep. 176: Michael Schrage on How Recommendation Engines Create Value

    Bilal Hafeez

    Michael is a research fellow with the MIT Sloan School of Management's Initiative on the Digital Economy. His research focuses on the behavioural economics of models, prototypes, and metrics as for managing innovation risk and opportunity. He is author of the award-winning book The Innovator’s Hypothesis and most recently Recommendation Engines.

  2. Momentum Models Support Long Bund vs UST Trade

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Momentum models support Mustafa and Henry’s view that there is value in being long 10Y Bunds vs USTs. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.

  3. G10 FX Weekly: BoE Outlook Exposes UK Yields and GBP to More Downside

    Richard Jones

    Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) hiked rates for a 14th straight time, raising its key policy rate (Bank Rate) from 5% to 5.25%.

Global Departures Plateau in Summer Peak

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

Global departures are plateauing, averaging 132k a day since mid-July (Chart 1). Historically, global departures have declined from here.

Ep. 175: Bill Bernstein on the Four Essentials to Investing Successfully

Bilal Hafeez

Bill Bernstein is a neurologist turned investment advisor. He is also the author of several books, including The Intelligent Asset Allocator, The Four Pillars of Investing, If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly, and The Delusion of Crowds.

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