Globalsee more…

  1. Momentum Models Increase Equity Bullishness and US Rates Bearishness

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Momentum models delivered a fourth consecutive week of positive returns, led by equities (+0.9% WoW).

  2. G10 FX Weekly: EUR to Benefit From Softer Eurozone Inflation and a Vigilant ECB

    Richard Jones

    Eurozone (EZ) CPI readings, both headline and core, are coming in softer, with the most recent data below consensus estimates.

  3. Bilal’s Macroscope: Are Foreign Investors Buying US Assets?

    Bilal Hafeez

    The US runs a large current account deficit, which means that it needs to attract foreign capital inflows to balance its books. This begs the question of which US assets are foreign investors exactly buying.

  1. Half-Term Holidays Drive European Departures Higher

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Global departures have recovered their strong upwards trend as half-term holidays commenced (Chart 1). Departures sit 5% above 2019 levels.

  2. Ep. 166: Deepak Gurnani on Building Winning Investment Strategies 

    Bilal Hafeez

    Deepak Gurnani is the Founder and Managing Partner of Versor Investments - $2bn quantitative investment firm. Deepak is the former CIO of Investcorp’s Hedge Fund Group and was one of the founding members in 1996.

  3. G10 FX Weekly: GBP Set for Downside in 2H 2023

    Richard Jones

    UK economic data, most notably inflation and employment readings, have soured recently.

Momentum Models Turn Net-Bullish on EUR and GBP

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Momentum models delivered a third consecutive week of positive returns, led by equities (+0.8% WoW).

Ep. 165: Jim Rogers on the Demise of the Dollar, Inflation and China

Bilal Hafeez

Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, a global-investment partnership. During the next 10 years, the portfolio gained 4200%, while the S&P rose less than 50%. Rogers then decided to retire – at age 37.

  1. Momentum Models Flip Short on GBP and NZD

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Momentum models delivered a second consecutive week of positive returns, led by equities (+0.8% WoW).

  2. Summer Strikes to Impact European Departures

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Last week’s small retreat in departures proved short lived as global departures soar to 122,000 per day (Chart 1). Departures sit 6% above 2019 levels.

  3. Bilal’s Macroscope: Does the Market Ever Get the Fed Right?

    Bilal Hafeez

    At the start of 2022, the rates market expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rate to end the year at 1%. It turned out to be 4.5% – one of the biggest market errors in decades (Chart 1).

G10 FX Weekly: Four Trades for a Debt Ceiling Impasse

Richard Jones

Democrats and Republicans have been unable to reach a deal after extensive debt-ceiling and budget negotiations.

Ep. 164: Stefan Jansen on How to Use ChatGPT and AI in Finance

Bilal Hafeez

Stefan Jansen is the author of the widely read ‘Machine Learning For Algorithmic Trading’. He is the founder and Lead Data Scientist at Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms and startups across industries on data & AI strategy and developing machine learning solutions.

  1. Momentum Models Flip Net-Bearish on EUR/USD

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Momentum models returns proved positive over the past week led by a positive outing in equities (+0.9% WoW). However, performance is poor over a three-month horizon. The models we track have lost 1.4%, on average. Equity momentum models (-4.2%) have fared worst.

  2. G10 FX Weekly: Where the Fed Goes, Its Peers Will Follow

    Richard Jones

    The outsized volatility in G10 rates markets from February and March has abated.

  3. Momentum Models Pared EUR/USD and GBP/USD Bullishness

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Momentum models returns were poor over the past week, on average, despite a positive outing in rates (+0.3% WoW).

G10 FX Weekly: 5 Trades for a JPY Revival

Richard Jones

The Japanese yen (JPY), long seen as a haven, is the second-worst-performing G10 currency this year, down about 2.5% against the US dollar (USD).

Travellers Flock to Thailand

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Last month, we investigated whether the Chinese were flying abroad. Our data showed they were, with departures to Thailand showing no slack. The latest data from Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sport has confirmed as much; arrivals in Thailand from China increased to 19% in March, versus 2019 averages, an increase from 11% in February (Chart A).

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