China Flight Departures Fall Short of Usual New Year Boost

By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
2 min read

We track scheduled flights (what’s planned) and tracked flights (what took off) from a sample of the largest airports across the world.

Looking at data up to 30 January 2023:

- Global departures sit a touch below 105,000, an increase on last week, tracking the progress in 2019 (Chart 1).

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We track scheduled flights (what’s planned) and tracked flights (what took off) from a sample of the largest airports across the world.

Looking at data up to 30 January 2023:

Global departures sit a touch below 105,000, an increase on last week, tracking the progress in 2019 (Chart 1).
We are at the tail end of Chinese New Year celebrations, and departures from the region are rising again (Beijing: +8.2% WoW; Shanghai: +6.9% WoW). The past two years have seen a substantial increase in departures following the start of the celebrations (Charts A and B). However, this year, they have failed to increase as quickly. Also, China, has resumed visa services in Japan after suspension on 10 January following stricter Covid-19 measures on Chinese travellers. Tighter restrictions are being extended in some locations; the Swedish government has decided to extend restrictions for another 20 days.
Good news does not carry west. Departures continue to slide lower in Europe (-0.1% WoW) and the United States (-1.0% WoW).

Information on long-term movements in flight data is available below.

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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Flight Tracker

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Flight Tracker

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Flight Tracker

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China Flight Departures Fall Short of Usual New Year Boost

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

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China Flight Departures Fall Short of Usual New Year Boost

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

Enter your email to read this Macro Hive Exclusive

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

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