Lower Real Rates – It’s A Seven Hundred Year Trend
(6 min read)
A new paper by Harvard economist Paul Schmelzing, Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311-2018, puts the secular stagnation debate into a historic context by looking at interest rate trends over the past 700 years. Schmelzing finds that the recent decline in real rates is entirely in-line with long-term trends and irrespective of policy support, permanently negative real rates could occur...
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