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  1. 2023 Corporate Bond Outlook: It Is Ok to Be Long

    John Tierney

    Corporate bonds spreads will widen significantly if, as we anticipate, persistent inflation leads to higher rates and a recession later this year.

  2. The End (of the Business Cycle) Is Nigh – What Next?

    Richard Jones

    The concept of the business cycle has always fascinated me. And I have always thought understanding it is important for improving investment and trading decisions.

  3. Ep. 119: Marion Laboure on Democratising Finance, Bitcoin as Digital Diamond and Central Bank Digital Currency 

    Bilal Hafeez

    Marion is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank in London and a lecturer at Harvard University. She has extensive private sector, public policy, and monetary policy experience...

  1. Ep. 118: Raymond Sagayam on the Biggest Overlooked Market Risk, Building World Class Teams, and Lessons from Bodybuilding 

    Bilal Hafeez

    Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018.

  2. Ep. 108: Daniel Zwirn on Finding Value in the Biggest Bubble in History

    Bilal Hafeez

    Dan Zwirn is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Arena Investors LP. Arena is a $3.4 billion global investment firm focusing on special situations asset and credit investments in corporates, real estate, structured finance, and corporate securities. 

  3. Ep. 104: Andy Constan on Lessons From Bridgewater, Equity Valuations and Top Trades

    Bilal Hafeez

    Andy Constan has spent the past 33 years investing and trading global markets. He’s worked at leading hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist.

Ep. 98: Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) on Money Printing, US Risks and ECB Surprises

Bilal Hafeez

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) is the author of The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing educational macroeconomic insights &...

Markets to Watch This Week: US Yields and JP Morgan

Bilal Hafeez

In this report, we standardise price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons. US 2-year yields saw a...

  1. Markets to Watch This Week: Global Yields Hamper Equities

    Bilal Hafeez

    US bond yields saw a 3+ standard-deviation jump last week, while tech stocks got smashed with NASDAQ seeing a 1.9 standard deviation...

  2. Markets to Watch This Week: Equities and High-Yield Credit

    Bilal Hafeez

    Last week saw big positive moves. Apply share prices saw a 3+ standard-deviation weekly jump. The overall S&P500, US high yield credit...

  3. US Sovereign CDS Will Track Sentiment About the Debt Ceiling Outlook

    John Tierney

    Another year, another Congress, another debt ceiling crisis. Usually, these things get resolved after tense negotiations and...

The Importance of Strong Balance Sheets

Sam van de Schootbrugge

A review of the financial crisis literature finds crises characterised by excessive household debt have significantly worse medium-term...

We Still Like Our (Underwater) Positions!

John Tierney

To capture interest income or carry in a low-yield environment, we favour high-yield corporate bonds. We can get exposure to the broad...

  1. How Costly Are Contractions In Bank Credit?

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A raft of prudential regulations sprung up to protect financial stability in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Yet at the onset...

  2. Rate Risk: An Issue for Investment Grade but Not High Yield

    John Tierney

    Investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads are on the cusp of post-GFC tights. Many worry that rising inflation will push...

  3. High-Yield Credit Is Still a Buy

    John Tierney

    Amid the volatility and uncertainty sparked by a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, equities and corporate credit markets hit...

High Yield Credit Spreads Poised to Keep Tightening

John Tierney

Credit spreads continued to grind tighter in the past month. Investment grade (IG) tightened 6bp to 99bp, and high yield (HY) moved 15bp...

Credit Market Outlook: It’s All About Carry Now

John Tierney

The corporate bond market pretty much followed equities in 2020. Spreads gapped out to solid recession levels when the coronavirus...

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