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Specials

Can Fed turn bonds yields at Jackson Hole? (3 min read)

By Bilal Hafeez | August 15, 2019

Bond yields across the world are falling to record lows. US 30 year treasury yields are at their all-time lows and flirting with the 2% threshold, German 10-year government yields have crossed below -0.6%, and remarkably, Spanish 10y yields are

Don’t cry for me Argentina…again? (2 min read)

By Miguel Ovalle | August 15, 2019

Apparently, the 25% correction in the ARS vs. the USD that we were expecting by the beginning of the week was not enough for the markets as some analysts and investors are now anticipating a first round victory for the Fernandez-Fernandez formula. The Argentine peso has lost approximately 40% in

Why QE Doesn’t Really work (4 min read)

By John Tierney | August 15, 2019

The ECB is signalling that it may resume Quantitative Easing (QE) via bond purchases. And there is growing speculation that other central banks including the Fed could follow suit. Meanwhile, a growing chorus of analysts including Macro Hive’s own Salomon

Best of the Web

The IMF’s Latest Victims (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Continuing our recent discussion of Argentina’s woes from our specials this week, we picked this piece by Jayati Ghosh, a Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, who blames the International

Tracking Foreign Capital (Bank Underground, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) A new paper by the Bank of England explores how foreign capital inflows specifically aimed at UK banks and financial institutions are channeled at home. Such flows can be large (they reached 100% of

Why we can’t just blame rising inequality for the growth of populism around the world (The Conversation, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Trump’s triumph is commonly attributed to the marginalised voters favouring his populism, fuelled by a rage against rising income inequality. This research by Brian Nolan, Professor of Social Policy at Oxford University,

China Digest from the Web

China White Paper on National Defense: Separatists Are Top Threat (SupChina, 3 min read)

July 25, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) China just released white paper on its global defence policy – a rare event, the first in four years. The paper’s stance is hostile towards US, claiming they undermine global peace, security

China’s Economic Growth has Halved—and It is Set to Halve Again (Prospect Magazine, 3 min read)

July 25, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Are China’s recent US trade war woes the sole culprit for its slowing GDP growth? In this commentary, George Magnus, a former chief economist at UBS, argues that there are underlying, homemade

China’s Investment in Africa: What the Data Really Says, and the Implications for Europe (Bruegel, 4 min read)

July 25, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Jianwei Xu, a Senior Economist at Natixis provide an excellent analysis into how bilateral trade has played a pivotal role in building strong ties between

Podcasts

The Myth of Meritocracy (Weekly Economics Podcast, 29 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) With Boris Johnson making the 20th Prime Minister to have attended Eton (considered the most prestigious private school in the UK), concerns are heightening around stagnating social mobility and class privilege. Data

How Robots Will Feed Our On-Demand Culture (The Future of Everything by the WSJ, 14 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nuro is a start-up aiming to bring autonomous vehicles into home delivery, and it’s backed a $1bn investment from Softbank’s Vision Fund. In this short interview, the founder, Dave Ferguson, who

Peak Energy, Peak Oil, and the Rise of Renewables: An Executive’s Guide to the Global Energy System (The McKinsey Podcast, 31 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast continues the discussion around oil that we initiated last week, with McKinsey Partners examining the deceleration in conventional energy demand. The composition of GDP is changing – services will overtake

Freshly Squeezed Working Papers

Alternative Data to Generate Alpha (3 min read)

June 20, 2019

In recent years the availability of new alternative datasets for financial markets has expanded enormously, potentially giving investors an informational edge. These can range from consumer transaction data to satellite

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns?

May 21, 2019

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns? AQR paper finds finds that options markets explain a great deal of credit returns. Two features of corporate bonds

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound

May 21, 2019

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound San Fran Fed writes “that there currently appears to be a low risk of the economy returning to the zero lower bound

Investor Positioning

August 13, 2019

Forecasts: US 10y Yields

August 13, 2019

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