Equities | Global | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates | US
Hive Intelligence Report: Fed Taper, Speculation on Energy Prices, and Earnings Estimates
- By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
- 9 min read
Every week, we bring together our community of macro experts to discuss the latest market developments. In this piece, we distil the insights from our conversations up to 1 November. These are views from our network rather than the views of the Macro Hive research team.
Fed
Read Dominique’s FOMC preview.
Goldman Sachs stance, and market thoughts
• Goldman Sachs’ stance: ‘We are pulling forward our forecast for the Fed’s first rate hike by one full year to July 2022, shortly after tapering is scheduled to conclude. We expect a second hike in November 2022 and two hikes per year after that.’
• This is, sort of, what the market is pricing anyway [Saturday]. Goldman Sachs are priced to the Eurodollar curve. So, is the Eurodollar curve (pressure whites, collapse Z3Z4) what people think (maybe), or is it a by-product of October’s massive stop-out (also maybe)?
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