By
John Tierney
08-02-2021
Where Will the Economy Find 10 million Lost Jobs?
(3 min read)
The headline January labour market report was another downer – private payrolls rose a scant 6,000 versus the consensus forecast of a 50,000 gain. On top of that, people unemployed for more than 26 weeks rose 3 percentage points to 39.7%
Glass Half Full?
Still, the underlying detail also gives reason to anticipate a sharp improvement in the job market in 2021.
The forecasts probably reflected expectations that the $900 billion stimulus bill signed into law in late December would have already started working its magic. But the January labour market survey was completed during the week of 11 January – too soon for most businesses and people to receive and act on stimulus benefits. The new stimulus should start showing up in the February job report.
Glass Half Full?
Still, the underlying detail also gives reason to anticipate a sharp improvement in the job market in 2021.
The forecasts probably reflected expectations that the $900 billion stimulus bill signed into law in late December would have already started working its magic. But the January labour market survey was completed during the week of 11 January – too soon for most businesses and people to receive and act on stimulus benefits. The new stimulus should start showing up in the February job report.
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