Fiscal Policysee more…

  1. Cracks Emerging in the US Banking System?

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper, co-authored by researchers from Stanford and Columbia, analyses the US banking system’s exposure to rising interest rates.

  2. Why Investors Should Not Ignore US Data

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A new NBER working paper investigates the correlation between US macroeconomic data releases and foreign stock markets.

  3. Budget 2023 to Avoid Causing Economic Slump?

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A new European Central Bank (ECB) working paper estimates the impact of rising real rates on euro area house prices.

  1. A Jackson Hole Lot of Trouble…

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    The message from 2022’s Jackson Hole Symposium was clear: taming inflation will be harder than markets expect.

  2. Forgiving Student Loans Will Only Make Things Worse

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    The Biden administration has unveiled debt forgiveness plans representing about 2.5% of GDP over 10 years. The forgiveness could raise consumption by 0.5-0.75pp of GDP in 2023 and worsen already exceptional resource pressures.

  3. Stimulus Checks Fuelled Speculation During the Pandemic

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    Researchers from Harvard Business School and NYU Stern examine how US stimulus checks impacted stock prices during the pandemic.

Watch Out for the Fed Reaction to the CPI

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Watch out for Waller and Clarida’s Friday’s speeches as they will likely provide the first indications of how the Oct. CPI has impacted...

A Golden Era for Fiscal Policy

Sam van de Schootbrugge

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak surprised many with a larger-than-anticipated government spending stimulus in the Autumn Budget. This could...

  1. US Sovereign CDS Will Track Sentiment About the Debt Ceiling Outlook

    John Tierney

    Another year, another Congress, another debt ceiling crisis. Usually, these things get resolved after tense negotiations and...

  2. How EMs Can Reduce Debt After the Pandemic

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    Although a lifeline for many, the fiscal splurge during the pandemic made 2020 the largest single-year rise in global debt since...

  3. Congress Plays Chicken as the Debt Ceiling Looms

    John Tierney

    Congress faces two pressing deadlines in coming weeks. First is passing a continuing budget resolution to keep the government open...

Secular Stagnation Theory Is Now Mainstream

Julius Probst, PhD

Japan has been stuck in a zero-interest rate environment since the 1990s. While most consider the country an anomaly, economists like Paul Krugman and Ben Bernanke warned...

Has Government Support Eroded Productivity Growth?

Sam van de Schootbrugge

During recessions, labour turnover increases as struggling firms attempt to reduce costs. In theory, these workers get reallocated to more productive firms that survive because they have more adaptable business models...

  1. Can Fiscal Policy Save Us From Rising Inequality?

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    Many central banks entered the Covid-19 pandemic with their lowest ever policy rate going into a recession. And so, for arguably one of...

  2. Fiscal Policy and Growth Forecasts Do Not Add Up!

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    In FY2022, assuming no change to current budget laws, the budget deficit would fall to 4.7% from 13.4% in FY2021. While current budget...

  3. Can Demand-Side Policies Push Productivity? Policymakers Will Try

    Jon Turek

    In January, an NBER paper addressed an economics topic that policymakers are seemingly relitigating. Can monetary policy/demand-side...

Worrying About Biden’s Capital Gains Tax Headline? Don’t!

John Tierney

Talk about horrible headlines. President Joe Biden wants to boost the capital gains tax to 39.6% for people making more than $1 million...

More Fiscal, Less Money: The Forthcoming Rebalancing of the Global Policy Mix

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

The IMF expects strong fiscal consolidation in 2022. This seems unrealistic because economic normalization...

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