Fiscal Policysee more…

  1. Forgiving Student Loans Will Only Make Things Worse

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    The Biden administration has unveiled debt forgiveness plans representing about 2.5% of GDP over 10 years. The forgiveness could raise consumption by 0.5-0.75pp of GDP in 2023 and worsen already exceptional resource pressures.

  2. Stimulus Checks Fuelled Speculation During the Pandemic

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    Researchers from Harvard Business School and NYU Stern examine how US stimulus checks impacted stock prices during the pandemic.

  3. A Golden Era for Fiscal Policy

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak surprised many with a larger-than-anticipated government spending stimulus in the Autumn Budget. This could...

  1. US Sovereign CDS Will Track Sentiment About the Debt Ceiling Outlook

    John Tierney

    Another year, another Congress, another debt ceiling crisis. Usually, these things get resolved after tense negotiations and...

  2. How EMs Can Reduce Debt After the Pandemic

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    Although a lifeline for many, the fiscal splurge during the pandemic made 2020 the largest single-year rise in global debt since...

  3. Congress Plays Chicken as the Debt Ceiling Looms

    John Tierney

    Congress faces two pressing deadlines in coming weeks. First is passing a continuing budget resolution to keep the government open...

Secular Stagnation Theory Is Now Mainstream

Julius Probst, PhD

Japan has been stuck in a zero-interest rate environment since the 1990s. While most consider the country an anomaly, economists like Paul Krugman and Ben Bernanke warned...

Has Government Support Eroded Productivity Growth?

Sam van de Schootbrugge

During recessions, labour turnover increases as struggling firms attempt to reduce costs. In theory, these workers get reallocated to more productive firms that survive because they have more adaptable business models...

  1. Can Fiscal Policy Save Us From Rising Inequality?

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    Many central banks entered the Covid-19 pandemic with their lowest ever policy rate going into a recession. And so, for arguably one of...

  2. Fiscal Policy and Growth Forecasts Do Not Add Up!

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    In FY2022, assuming no change to current budget laws, the budget deficit would fall to 4.7% from 13.4% in FY2021. While current budget...

  3. Can Demand-Side Policies Push Productivity? Policymakers Will Try

    Jon Turek

    In January, an NBER paper addressed an economics topic that policymakers are seemingly relitigating. Can monetary policy/demand-side...

Worrying About Biden’s Capital Gains Tax Headline? Don’t!

John Tierney

Talk about horrible headlines. President Joe Biden wants to boost the capital gains tax to 39.6% for people making more than $1 million...

More Fiscal, Less Money: The Forthcoming Rebalancing of the Global Policy Mix

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

The IMF expects strong fiscal consolidation in 2022. This seems unrealistic because economic normalization...

  1. Biden’s Gambit Will Leave Lighter Market Footprint Than Reagan’s

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Commentators are drawing several parallels between the opening policy gambits of President Ronald Reagan and President Joe Biden...

  2. Biden’s Big Infrastructure Plan: What’s in it for Investors?

    John Tierney

    US President Joe Biden’s fiscal spending plans echo Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal during the Depression: relief and recovery. ‘Relief’ is...

  3. Tesla Bitcoin Bombshell: The Trickle May Turn to a Flood

    John Butler and Andrew Simon

    The US corporate cash pile has grown to historically unprecedented levels and may soon flood into bitcoin and gold...

Where Will the Economy Find 10 million Lost Jobs?

John Tierney

The headline January labour market report was another downer – private payrolls rose a scant 6,000 versus the consensus...

A Smaller COVID Relief Deal and Yellen’s Funding Dilemmas

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut and George Goncalves

The next COVID relief plan has two options for adoption. Either it gets 60 senators’ support or it goes through the budget reconciliation...

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