Asia | China | Economics & Growth | Politics & Geopolitics | US
This week marks the one-year anniversary of the signing of the US-China Phase 1 trade deal. The world has changed significantly since then. But China’s trade surplus with the US has continued to rise, now 7% higher than a year ago. As the Biden administration is expected to take a tough, albeit coherent, line on China, next month’s review will set a precedent on the future policy stance.
Under Trump, China’s Trade Surplus With the US Has Risen
China’s first-in, first-out COVID situation served its export sector well. The country’s ability to produce PPE-related goods saw repeated outperformance on exports through the second half of the year. Three consecutive double-digit gains in Q4 clawed back the contraction at the start of the year to leave exports up 3.6%. Global exports have fared less well, leaving China with a rising share of world exports (Chart 1). And that comes despite ongoing yuan appreciation since May.
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